CLIMATE CHANGE 2013CLIMATE CHANGE 2013d / A
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de CLIMATE CHANGE 2013CLIMATE CHANGE 2013The Physical Science BasisThe Physical Science Basis
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CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR BRAZIL
Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque CavalcantiIracema Fonseca de Albuquerque CavalcantiCPTEC/INPE/MCTI
One of the lead authors chapter 14 AR5 WG1 AR5One of the lead –authors chapter 14- AR5 - WG1-AR5
AR5- WG1-Chapter 14- Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate ChangeRelevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Monsoon Systems: South American Monsoon System (SAMS)
Tropical Phenomena: South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)
Additional phenomena of relevance: Pacific South America (PSA)
Future Climate Regional Change:Future Climate Regional Change:
Central America and Caribbean
South America
T t d P i it ti P j ti f B ilTemperature and Precipitation Projections for Brazil
RCPs scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways)
RCP 8.5 is characterized by i i h
They are based on assumptions about economic activity, energy sources, population growth and other socio-
i f t increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time, representative of scenarios in
economic factors
RCP 2.6 : Radiative forcing increases up to +3.1 W/m2 by the middle of 21st century
representative of scenarios in the literature that lead to high greenhouse gas concentration y
and reduce to 2.6 W/m2 in 2100.
RCP 4 5 is a stabilization
g glevels.
In order to reach such radiative forcing levels, greenhouse gas emissions
RCP 4.5 is a stabilization scenario in which total radiative forcing is t bili d h tl ftgreenhouse gas emissions
(and indirectly emissions of air pollutants) are reduced s bstantiall o er time
stabilized shortly after 2100.
substantially, over time
Temperature changes (2081-2100)- (1986-2005) DJF RCP 8 5
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5C 6
4.0
1 0
2.0
1.0
Temperature changes (2081-2100)- (1986-2005) JJA
RCP 8.5RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
5.0
1.5 2.0
Annual Precipitation change in South Americaunder different scenarios (2081-2100)- (1986-2005)under different scenarios (2081 2100) (1986 2005)
RCP 8.5
RCP 2.6RCP 4.5
Precipitation change in South America October to March
RCP 4 5
RCP 8.5(2081-2100)- (1986-2005)
RCP 2.6RCP 4.5
Precipitation change in South America April to September
RCP 4 5
RCP 8.5(2081-2100)- (1986-2005)
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
-10 to -20% Amazonia NE
+10 to +20% Southern Brazil+10 to +20% Southern Brazil
Precipitation change from regional models and scenario A1B (CMIP3) [(2071 2100) (1961 1990)]and scenario A1B (CMIP3) [(2071-2100)- (1961-1990)]
Precipitation change Amazonia (2081-2100)- (1986-2005) RCP 2 6
DJF SON JJA MAM RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5-10 to -30% north -10 to -30% eastern AMA and -40% NE
Time series of precipitation change over Amazonia(SON)(SON)
Time series of temperature change over South America (JJA)
Dry extremes near future : (2016-2035)- (1986-2005)
April to September October- March
Increase in extremes in the South America Monsoon System
Changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone
Intensification of the southern center
Changes in the Pacific South America pattern due to changes in Pacific SST : influences over southeastern SAchanges in Pacific SST : influences over southeastern SA
MAIN CONCLUSIONS AR5 WG1 South America(high confidence on model results)(high confidence on model results)Temperature increase over the whole continent, highest valuessouthern Amazoniasout e a o a
Increase of precipitation extremes (wet and dry) over the wholecontinentcontinent
Precipitation increase over southeastern South America (includesouthern Brazil and La Plata basin)southern Brazil and La Plata basin)
Precipitation increase over northwestern South America (includet t f A i )extreme west of Amazonia)
Precipitation increase over extreme southern Chile
Precipitation decrease eastern Amazonia and northern South America
Precipitation decrease central Chile
www.climatechange2013.orgwww.climatechange2013.orgFurther InformationFurther Information
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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude