Climate change and conservation (Lec 24-26)
FYI – Additional Reading
Chapter 10 - Principles of Conservation Biology
Vince (2009) Surviving in a warmer world. New Scientist Vol 201 No. 2697
Parmesan (2006) Annual Review of of Ecology and Systematics 37: 637-669
Summary so far
Atmospheric gases prevent long wave (IR) energy from being dissipated into space
CO2 contributes most to the Earth’s ability to absorb and retain solar energy (i.. it has the strongest radiative forcing)
Data from ice cores show CO2 and global temperatures have risen over the last 100 years
All scenarios developed by the IPCC suggest CO2 levels and global climate change will continue
The IPCC chair suggests we should plan for a 4C warming by 2100
Climate change and conservation (Lec 25)
Predicted Impacts on Biological Systems
Observed Ecological Impacts
Ecosystem feedback loops
Conservation implications
Climate can determine the distribution of species
Changes in temperature or precipitation will change the geographical range of species
How will climate change impact biomes, communities, species?
Predictions
Geographic ranges should move towards the poles show elevational changes
Climate envelope modelling
Current climate + distribution !!“climate envelope”
Predict climate + climate envelope ! Predicted distribution
How will climate change impact biomes, communities, species?
Predictions
BUT Different species in a community
have different needs and tolerances vary in their ability to move
Species differ in their response New communities are created Species abundances change New species invade Some species go extinct
Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Birds
Great Britain - 59 species - northward shift of 19 km in 20yrs
North America - 56 bird species - north ward shift of 46 km in 20 yrs - range is contracting because southern range boundary shifting faster
Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Birds - North America - winter range
Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Mammals
Red fox has expanded into the North
Arctic fox has contracted to Atlantic
Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Butterflies North America and Europe 58 species 2/3 shifted north 100km/decade
Edith’s checkerspot
Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Plankton – mesozooplankton in the ne Atlantic
Northwards shifts of 1000km
Observed Ecological Impacts Elevational change
Monteverde National Park, Costa Rica
Lowland birds move into montane cloud forest
Siberia and Canadian Rockies
Treeline movement has been documented
Observed Ecological Impacts Phenological change
Plants Japan- Cherry
- 1400-1900 no change in flowering timing - 1950 on timing has advanced
Europe – Grape harvest - 1500-2000 – timing depends on temp - 2003 earliest harvest ever
Animals US - Frogs- 6 spp 1900-2000
10-13 day advance linked to 1 -2.3C increase
UK Birds 20 spp 1970-1995 9 day advance in laying date
Summary of studies for 944 species (Parmesan and Yohe 2003)
Climate change As predicted Opposite to prediction prediction % %
Earlier timing 87 13
Extension 81 19 of range boundaries polewards
Community change 85 15 Cold adapted species decline Warm adapted species increase
Consequences of range shifts
What happens when your food moves?
Triangle Island BC Sea surface temperature influences availability of the copepod Neocalanus cristatus
Warm-water prey species are smaller and have lower fat content
Less N cristatus ! reduced nestling growth and lower fledgling success
Cassin auklets have declined 2.3%/yr over the last 40 yrs
Consequences of range contractions
What happens when you can’t go up anymore?
8400 landbirds 2.8C increase in temperature – 5% extinct by 2100 6.4C 30% extinct by 2100
Sekercoglu (2008) Cons Bio 22:140-150
Consequences of phenological shifts
What happens if your timing is off?
Colorado Rocky Mountains - 1.4C rise in air temperature 1975- 1999
!!yellow bellied marmots emerge from hibernation 38 days earlier
! American robins arrive 14 days earlier
BUT snowmelt and plant flowering has NOT changed
The gap between arrival/emergence and when food is available has increased this will increase mortality and reduce clutch/litter size
Additional consequences of climate change
Pest species and disease are also moving polewards and upward
Eg Chytrid fungus Cooler days and warmer nights have resulted in favourable conditions at mid-elevation sites Changes in dynamics of the skin fungus is implicated in subsequent extinctions of 74 harlequin frog species
Summary so far
Climate change is unequivocal
Biological impacts are being detected already
Adaptation and mitigation are necessary
Next
Biodiversity/Conservation impacts on climate Conservation implications