Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development:
A Framework for Integration
John Robinson
CLA, WGIII
July 18, 2001
Purpose of Presentation
• Report on the findings from TAR WGIII and the SRES that relate to the issue of sustainable development
Why consider Sustainable Development (SD) in TAR?
• SD and climate change mitigation (CCM) are linked– SD policies may affect emissions and mitigative
capacity– CCM affects SD prospects
• SAR pointed to connections but didn’t explore them in detail
• Cross-cutting paper on development, equity and sustainability produced
What is Sustainable Development?
• Many definitions but can usefully think of SD in terms of 10 challenges:
- Clean air - Transportation
- Clean water - Housing
- Food - Jobs
- Energy - Waste disposal
- Land use - Health care
• Key is integration across all three domains of SD: social, economic and environmental
Socio-EconomicDevelopment
Paths
Climate Change
Impacts
Emissions
An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Anthropogenic Climate Change
Mit
igat
ion
Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development in WGIII
Development paths
Ancillary benefits(Chapter 2)
(Chapter 1)
(Chapter 10)
(Chapters 7-9)
SD CCM
(Chapters 3-6)
1. Implications of CCM for SD
2. Implications of SD for CCM
3. Integrating CCM and SD Policies
WGIII Findings
SD CCM
SD CCM
SD CCM
1. Implications of Climate Change Mitigation for Sustainable Development
• Climate change mitigation is likely to have significant impacts on the prospects for SD in various regions and sectors– Mitigation will reduce climate change and
other impacts on human and natural systems (“ancillary benefits”)
– Effects of mitigation policies and regimes
I. Unique and Threatened SystemsII. Extreme Climate EventsIII. Distribution of ImpactsIV. Global aggregate impactsV. Large Scale, High Impact Events
Mitigation Limits Climate Change Impacts
Mitigation Policies and Sustainable Development
• Rate of mitigation affects employment, welfare and intergenerational impacts– Slower mitigation can reduce shock
effects and lower costs if stabilization targets are higher
– Faster mitigation can reduce negative longer-term impacts, induce technological change, and lower long-term costs if stabilization targets are lower
2. Implications of Sustainable Development for Climate Change Mitigation
• Achieving SD goals will reduce emissions and contribute to mitigative capacity– This can be seen by taking a look at the
SRES and post-SRES analyses
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A2 Scenarios
A2
550
750
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A1B Scenarios
450550650
Glo
bal
An
thro
po
gen
ic C
arb
oo
n D
ioxi
de
Em
issi
on
s (G
tC)
A1B
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios
450550
B1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios
A1T
450550650
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios
450550650
B2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios
4505506
750
A
Mitigation and Development Paths:Comparison of reference (SRES) and
stabilization (post-SRES) scenarios
A1B
B2B1A2
A1FIA1T
3. Integrating Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable
Development Policies
• Climate change policies may be more effective if integrated into sustainable development goals and policies
Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development
•Avoided CC impacts•Costs and distribution of costs•Ancillary benefits •Forestry/agriculture impacts
• Environmental & economic policies • Human and social capital• Infrastructure• Innovation and technology
CCMSDpolicy
CCMpolicySD