Climate Change Scenarios for theCongo Basin
Fulco Ludwig, Andreas Haensler and Paul Scholte
Modelling chain of the project
Observed temperatures and precipitation
Projected changes in annual temperatures
Highemissionscenario
Lowemissionscenario
projected changes for frequency of hotdays and nights
Projectedchanges inseasonalprecipitation
Projected changes in intensity of heavy rainfall events
Highemissionscenario
Lowemissionscenario
Average changes (%) in precipitation, evapo-
transpiration and runoff across the Congo River Basin
Impact ofclimatechange onmean, highand low riverflows
Climate change impacts on hydrologicalcycle
Changes in run-off mainly depend on changes in rainfall
●As rainfall changes are uncertain run-off changesare also uncertain
Run-off and discharge will increase – especially duringthe wet season
●River discharge increases – up to 60% - could causeincreased flooding
Difference between wet and dry season will becomelarger
Especially in the northern and southern parts of theregion lower low flows and more drought are projectedfor the future
Climate change impacts on river flow intofive different hydropower dams
Climate change impacts on hydropowerproductionMore average run-off increases the potential for
energy production from hydropower●But due to the uncertainties in future run-off this is
not certain
The run-off however will become more variablethis will make dam management morecomplicated and energy availability less reliable
Increased peak flow can also affect hydropowerfacilities●For example dam levels have to lowered to cover for
peak flow
●Extreme flows could damage dams and facilities
Climate change impacts on ecosystemcarbon storage
Climate change impacts on agriculture
Higher CO2 concentrations potentially increases production andreduce agricultural water use
Higher temperatures reduces plant growth, cause heat stressand increase evaporation
Water stress will increase in the drier parts of the regions
High temperatures and high humidity make crops sensitive todiseases
In the northern and southern plant production will be affectedby more frequent droughts and dry spells
Locally, agriculture will be affected by high intensive rainfallevents and floods
Agriculture - conclusion
In the region, water will not become a limiting factor foragricultural production – with the acceptance of northernedge of the region (mainly Chad)
In terms of climate change, temperature increases willbe of more importance than changes inevapotranspiration and rainfall
Need for adaptation
improve preparedness for extreme weather eventssuch as droughts and floods
in the agricultural and energy sector there is a need forrisk spreading by diversification●grow different crops and also different varieties to reduce
impact of climate variability
●Countries should be careful not to become fully dependent onhydropower because this makes them too vulnerable todroughts
To prevent forest degeneration and erosion there should bemore attention on reforestation and agroforestry
Programs on food and water security should develop strategiesto manage climate variability so they are prepared for bothdry and wet periods