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Climate Change & Water ResourcesImpact and adaptation
Dr. Guoqing WANG /Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR
Research Center for Climate Change, MWR
March 25, 2010, Beijing
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Climate Change and Water Resources
Impact Assessment for Water Resources
Adaptative Strategies and Priorities
Contents
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Global Temperature /
Global annual mean temperature: +0.74 /0.74
The warmest decade: 1990s / 209010
Recent 11 years rank among the 12 warmest years / 1860
121119952006
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Temperature change in China /
Similar rising trend to global temperature / Temperature rise during the last 100yrs: 0.5~0.8 / 100
0.5~0.8
Rising rate during the last 50yrs: 0.22/10a / 50
0.22/10a
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Precipitation change in China
Trend ratios of precipitation during 1951-2002
Western: Increase
Southern: Increase
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Northern: Decrease
Northeastern: Decrease
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Changes in 60mins rainfall
before and after 1980
Changes of extreme rainstorm events /
Short duration rainfall intensity: Increasing /Kuanping, Shanxi: 1998.071300mm/6-7hr
Zhanjiang, Guangdong: 2007.081188mm/24hr Rain
days of extreme rainstorms: Increasing /
Trend rate of rain days of
extreme rainstorms
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667mm
118mm
35mm
84%
12%
4%
Annual runoff depth: 288mm
288mmSurface water: 2737.5bm3
2737.5bm3
Water Resources in China /
Mountain
AreasPlain
areas
Overlap: 31.8 bm3
176.5 bm3677.2 bm3
Ground water: 821.9bm3
821.9bm3
82%
18%
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Characteristics of WR /
Uneven distribution in time and space/: 80%
Low water occupation per capita/< 30%
Serious shortage400/668 cities
: Gap=40bm3, in Normal Year
Huge losses due to flooding and drought /
>GDP1
Spatial distribution
Temporal distribution
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Water Issues in China /
Flooding / Decreasing /
Polluting / Losing /
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1.9 3.79.1 7.6
-0.8
-3.2
-33
-55.5
-4.8
-61.2
-40.1
-62.2
-30.9
-2.5 -2.2
-0.9-0.9
-77.9-76.6-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
(
%)
Changes in Recorded Runoff /
Significant decreasing : Haihe River, Yellow River
Slight changing: other rivers
Decreasing rate of runoff during 1980-2004 comparing to that
before 1980
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Global Warming
Hydrological cycle
Sustainable utilization
Changes in rainfall
Climate change and Hydrological cycle
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Climate Change and Water Resources
Impact Assessment for Water Resources
Adaptative Strategies and Priorities
Contents
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Assessment approach
Horizontally integrated
Vertically
integrated
Assessment / Model
Impacts
Adaptation / Policy
Technology
Projected
Scenario / Projected
Hypothetical
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National Key Project (85-913-03-03 )
Socialeconomicdatabase
Tributaries GCMs
Random weather model
Water balance models
Assessment system of water
Effect assessment
Adaptation measures
Hydro-meteorologicDatabase
Study Catchments/Tributaries of six big rivers
Assessment Models/:
Lumped Water Balance
Models /
Assessment / : The future water
resources, based on outputs of 7
GCMs
Sub-area1
0
10
20
30
40
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968
Time/month
Runoff/mm
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National Key Project (96-908-03-04 )
GCMs or RCM
60km60km
Downscaling of P and T (30km30km)
30km30km grid based hydrological model
Spatial distribution and simulated discharge
Sensitivity analysis
GISdatabase
Hydro-meteorologicdatabase
Study basins /: 4 big river basins Assessment Models /: 3030km grid based hydrologic
model
Assessment /: sensitivity analysis
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-20 -10 0 10 20
DP(%)
DR(%)
-2
-1
0
1
2
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m
m
m
d IPII
PIWWP
IPIWWP
Q0
1
0max
00
0
max
00
11
max
22
max
2221
max
2221
WWWWWWdWd
WWWWdQ
SS
S
b
Study area: China
Assessment ModelVIC Assessmentvulnerability
National Key Project (2001-BA611B-02-04)
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( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
6.4
1.1
Temperature rise: 1.16.4/ 211.16.4Warmer globe /
Temperature trends in 21th Century21
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Possible climate change in China21
PrecipitationIncrease in most areas, Decrease in NorthernChina and North-eastern China before 2040 /Temperature /20301.720502.2
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Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase /The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate.
A2scena
rio
Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2
2071-2100A2
Projected water resources distribution
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Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water
system / B2A2
Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2
2071-2100B2
B2scen
ario
Projected water resources distribution
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Sensitivity /Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree of
hydrological variable to climate change. High response under the
same climate change means more sensitive to climate change
Cold regionYilihe RiverSemi-arid regionYellow R
Semi-humid region
Huai RHumid regionDongjiang R
Study basin
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change
Sensiti it of WR to Climate Change
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T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons
Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change
Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff
Yilihe RiverYellow River
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change
S iti it f WR t Cli t Ch
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
(%)
(%)
-3 -2 -1
0 +1 +2
+3
Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does
Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P-
Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less
Huaihe River
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
(%)
(%)
-3 -2 -1
0 +1 +2
+3
Dongjiang River
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change
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Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables
Response Lawsimilar between actual evaporation and soil moisture
P changesRunoff, actual evaporation, soil moisture, (bigger->less)
T changesSoil moisture, runoff, actual evaporation, (bigger->less)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
(%)
(mm)
-3 -2 -1
0 +1 +2
+3
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
(%)
(mm)
-3 -2 -1
0 +1 +2
+3
-40
-20
0
20
40
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
(%)
(mm)
-3 -2 -1
0 +1 +2
+3
RUNOFF
SOILMOISTURE
ACTUALEVAPORATION
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Human activities are main reasons of runoff reduction in YR
Contribution of Climate change accounts for 39
39
Identification of CC contribution (YRB)
PeriodsReco-ed
(108m3)
Simu-ed
(108m3)
Total redu
(108m3)
Climate-induced Human-induced
108m3 (%) 108m3 (%)
Baseline 237.5
1970-1979148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18
1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33
1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36
1970-2000 138.8 199.5 98.7 38.0 38.53 60.6 61.47
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Climate Change and Water Resources
Impact Assessment for Water Resources
Adaptative Strategies and Priorities
Contents
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Climate Change, IWRM and Resilience
Many climate change impacts
are just extreme examples ofexisting challenges. /
Water resources are already stressed due to
economic growth, population pressure and lifestyles.
Many challenges not new, nor product of climatechange alone. /
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Flooding Flood management
W Pollution Green economic
W LosingSelf restoration+ engineering
Water savingW Shortage
Integrated WR Management /
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1. Water-Saving Society /
ChinaDeveloped
Countries
Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) 537 m3
0.70.80.40.5
Index of water usage
4WorldMean value
The effective-utilization coefficient of
agricultural irrigation water
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2. Non-Traditional water sources /
High cost /.
Technology Support /
Waste water treatment
Storm water harvest
Sea water desalination
http://www.chinacitywater.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=8098http://www.chinacitywater.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=80988/9/2019 Climate Change & Water Resources: Impact and Adaptation
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Reservoirs / River dikes /
Flood retention areas /
Water transfer projects /
3. Water Controlling Projects /
JingJiang dyke
Embankment
Three Gorge Reservoir Reservoirs: 87,000
87,000
Total storage capacity: 600 billion m3
6000 m3
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Haihe river
Huaihe riverYellow river
Yangtze river
WL
ML
EL
Water transfer project /
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4. Water Resources Management /
Toward WDM rather than
WSM /
Perfect policy, laws, and
regulations /
Public education /
Priorities of Adaptation
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Priorities of AdaptationImprovements /
New scenario /
Assessment model, especially for ungauged areas /
Limitation of adaptation /
More strategies at state level /Lack of regional adaptation strategies / More strategy on mean, less on extreme /
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Different issues for different regions /
Different adaptation strategies for different regions /
1. Regional adaptation strategies /
Principle /
Key Regions
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2. Strategies for extreme events/
Flood
Drought
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For more
information
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Thanks for your attention