Climate Related Problem at Indramayu
Kusnomo Tamkani and Rizaldi Boer
Dinas Pertanian Indramayu,
Bogor Agricultural University
OUTLINE
• Introduction• Climate Problems
– What is the problem ?– For whom is this a problem ?– Why is this a problem ?– When and how does the problem occur ?
• Impacts– What kinds of data illustrate the problems ?
• Process of Data Collection
NORTH
MIDDLE
SOUTH
Java sea
• Located in north coastal area of West Java with total land area of about 214 thousand hectares
• It has 28 sub-districts and 310 villages
INTRODUCTION
• Land use is dominated by rice paddy field (58%)
• 95% of area has elevation of between 0-3 m a.s.l. and 5% between 3-100 m a.s.l (part of the south region)
• Mean daily temperature is between 26 and 27oC
• Annual rainfall is about 1430 mm with 75 rainy days.
• Population is 1.6 million with growth rate of about 1.6% per annum
Others14%
Forest17%
Agriculture plantation
3%
Fish Ponds
8%
Paddy Field58%
• The main economic activity of Indramayu’s people is agriculture
• About 65% of population depend on this sector. Of this, about 95% engages in rice-based farming system. Mean annual planting area of rice is about 205 thousand ha and total annual production is about 1.2 million ton (Contribute to about 27% of West Java)
• Contribution of agriculture sector to total gross regional domestic product is quite significant
NORTH
MIDDLE
SOUTH
North area is mainly end tail irrigated areas and fish pond, salt mining
Middle area is mainly irrigated areas (dominated by rice)South area is mainly
rainfed areas (upland crops and horticultures)
Contribution of sectors to the total GRDP at Indramayu in 2001
Services13%
Finance, rental & company
services4%
Transporatation & Comm.
8%
Trading, Hotel & Rest. 26%
Buildings2%
Electricity, gas & clean water
2%
Processing Industry
5%
Agric, Livestock, Forestry &
Fishery40%
Mining and Digging
0%
Services5%
Finance, rental & company
services2%
Transportation & Comm. 3%
Trading, Hotel & Rest.10%
Buildings1%
Electricity, gas & clean water
1% Processing Industry
20%
Agric, Livestock, Forestry &
Fishery16%
Mining and Digging
42%
1
With Oil and Gas
Without Oil and Gas
Contribution of agriculture sector to total Gross
Regional Domestic Product is 16% if oil and gas included
and 40% if oil and gas is excluded
Contribution of agriculture sector to total Gross
Regional Domestic Product is 16% if oil and gas included
and 40% if oil and gas is excluded
Climate Related Problems• Flood and Drought are two main climate-related problems in
Indramayu• Rice is the main crop that is severely affected by the two events.• Contribution of the two events to production loss at Indramayu is
about 86%, while due to pest and diseases is 14% (Based on data from 1997-2003)
Flood & Drought
86%
Pest and Diseases
14%
Climate Related Problems• Flood seasons is between January and February (Probability
of occurrence and Drought season between June-August
0
15
30
45
60
75
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Prob
abili
ty (%
)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Average of Drought Area
ProbabilityDrought Area
0
15
30
45
60
75
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Prob
abili
ty (%
)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Average of Flood Area (Ha)
ProbabilityFlood Area
ProblemDelay monsoon: normally caused rice production loss of less than 6000 ton
Early onset of dry season: normally caused rice production loss of more than 150,000 ton
Flood caused rice production loss of more than 60,000 ton
Flood will flush out fish and shrimp to ocean (no yield expected)
Early onset and delay wet and dry season, reduce salt production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Rata-R
ata Curah H
ujan (mm
)
Kab. Indramayu
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Agu Sep
Luas
Tan
am (h
a)
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
Pla
ntin
g A
rea
(ha)
Mean R
ainfall (mm
)
Fish/shrimp culture
Salt mining
Vegetables/upland crops
rice rice Fallow
Flood DroughtDrought
North/Middle
North
North
South upland rice
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400O
kt-
90
Nov-9
0
Dec-9
0
Jan-9
1
Feb-9
1
Mar-
91
Apr-
91
May-9
1
Jun-9
1
Jul-91
Aug-9
1
Sep-9
1
Cu
rah
Hu
jan
(m
m)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Lu
as (h
a)
CH
Tanam
Mea
n R
ainf
all (
mm
)P
lanting Area (ha)
Case-1: Drought development (PS 1990/1991)Problem – early onset of dry season
CH-NormalTerkena
PusoCH Musim Rendeng jauh di bawah normal
CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Okt-
99
Nov-9
9
Dec-9
9
Jan-0
0
Feb-0
0
Mar-
00
Apr-
00
May-0
0
Jun-0
0
Jul-00
Aug-0
0
Sep-0
0
Cu
rah
Hu
jan
(m
m)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Lu
as (h
a)
CH
Tanam
Planting A
rea (ha)
Mea
n R
ainf
all (
mm
)
Case-2: Flood Development (PS 1999/2000) ~ Rainfall in January was far above normal
CH-Normal
Terkena
Puso
CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall
Impact of Drought on Status of Family Welfare
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Nu
mb
er o
f H
ou
seh
old
Pra KS KS I KS II KS III KS IV-up
Income Status
2001
2003
2001
Pra KS34%
KS I21%
KS II25%
KS III15%
KS IV-up5%
2003
Pra KS37%
KS I32%
KS II18%
KS III10%
KS IV-up3%
Severe floods and Severe floods and drought will increase drought will increase
number ofnumber ofPra-KS: Case in 2003, Pra-KS: Case in 2003, the devastating impact the devastating impact of drought (long dry of drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in
2002-2003 increase the 2002-2003 increase the number of Poor family number of Poor family by about 14% (Pra-KS by about 14% (Pra-KS
and KS1)and KS1)
Severe floods and Severe floods and drought will increase drought will increase
number ofnumber ofPra-KS: Case in 2003, Pra-KS: Case in 2003, the devastating impact the devastating impact of drought (long dry of drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in
2002-2003 increase the 2002-2003 increase the number of Poor family number of Poor family by about 14% (Pra-KS by about 14% (Pra-KS
and KS1)and KS1)
Why is the problem ?
• There was no early warning system for drought and flood
• Climate forecast was not used to anticipate the events due to no knowledge in using climate forecast information
• Farmers planted rice paddy in area which were not recommended (outside of area which not scheduled to receive irrigation water)
• High sediment in the downstream (river) and poor maintenance of the drainage system
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
IMPACT
1997
Crop Failure due to flood and drought
0
5000
1000015000
20000
25000
30000
3500040000
45000
5000019
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Flo
od
or
Dro
ug
ht
Are
a (h
a) Flood
Drought
Total area destroyed by drought increased significantly in El-Nino years. Total area destroyed by flood was much less than that by drought
Other Impact of El-Nino events on agriculture production • In addition to rice, Indramayu is also known as Mango City.
– Population of Mango tree more than 860.000 trees– Average annual production was about 35.000 tons– Potentially, one mango tree could produce 400 kg/tree/annum– During El-Nino years, Mango production and the quality normally
increased.– It was estimated in El-Nino years, annual production could increase up to
15% ~ 40.000 tons but the price normally decreased• El-Nino also affect either upstream or downstream agribusiness activities
– Agriculture inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides can not be absorbed– Many agriculture machines such as hand tractors, rice mills were not
operated. Some farmers get income from renting the hand tractors.– Income and purchasing power of farmers decreased significantly ~ may
affect economy of Indramayu as a whole
Data Collection Process
Head of Village
All agriculture data, damaged data, refugees number, etc
Head of Sub Districts
Extension Workers
Local Agency for extension
Pest and Diseases Observer/ Head of Agriculture Section/
Head of Statistic Section
Raksabumi (Water and agriculture)Lebe (Welfare), Lurah Polisi (Security)
Task Force for Refugees and Hazards
District OfficesDistrict
Offices
REGENT
GOVERNOR
NATIONAL
Task Force for Refugees and Hazards
Task Force for Refugees and Hazards