Download - CLSA Fengshui 2016

2016Feng Shui Index

2 3

CONTENTS Monkey’s tale Famous chimps

The two bazi in the chart - literally eight (Chinese) characters, which change position on a 60-year cycle - guide predictions for the year.

The Chinese monkey is an ambivalent figure. Close to man and yet uncontrollable. Loved for his human-like antics and disliked for his lack of social grace and unpredictability. The embodiment of this year’s zodiac, and the year ahead, is the character Sun Wukong, or Monkey King, from the Ming Dynasty saga, Journey to the West.

The Monkey’s character is so dominant that the novel is often referred to as his story. But it’s worth recalling that, after being punished for a long list of impish wrongdoings and consequently caged by the Buddha, the Monkey is entrusted to assist the monk, Xuan Zang, to retrieve scriptures from India for the good of humanity. And that’s how we see the year ahead. One of impish, apeful, baboonery, but overall, not too bad, with many opportunities for fast movers.

As our starting point, we look at the eight-character Bazi for the Monkey and compare it to the eight-character birth chart of the Earth Rooster, the Hang Seng Index. This is a Fire Monkey year, and in the chart Fire sits atop Metal, which has capacity for bringing about conflict. However, the Fire is relatively benign, and there is enough Water hidden in the Earth Rooster’s chart to withstand a scorching. Our forecast chart (page 26) takes a unique turn from recent years, with a decent start after a bad end to the Goat’s reign, a big dip in the middle followed by a recovery.

In the 60-year Stems and Branches, or fiddlesticks as we call them, this is a year to set things up for a stronger future. That’s good news for China as it sets about shoring up its “One Belt, One Road” strategy with wealth and security two guiding motives for the country’s modern Journey to the West. We also take a look at the fortunes of the Zodiac, some celebrities and offer guidance for deflecting negative energies.

H aving pegged the Goat, how will we

fare with the primate?We picked the Goat-path trajectory last year with eerie facility. Rising from February through June, we fingered 8 July as the inauspicious day when the Hang Seng fell nearly 6%. From there we had the market dropping through October until the Goat found his footing and began to climb again. Alas, the influence of the impish ape arrived early, and our Billy was bumped off his intended path, which was to end the year higher than it started. See page 4 where we also compare our previous Feng Shui forecasts for the Monkey years of 1992 and 2004 with actual index performance.

Monkey business

A volatile ride as the Hang Seng goes ape OVERVIEW ................................................................... 3

PREVIOus MONKEY YEaRs ........................................ 4

sEctOR hIghlIghts .................................................. 6

afflIctION dEflEctION .......................................... 8

ZOdIac sIgN guIdE .................................................. 9

faMOus facEs ......................................................... 21

PROPERtY OutlOOK ............................................... 24

clsa fENg shuI INdEx 2016 ................................... 26

Heavenly stems

}Rooster

酉You

Yin Metal

YEARPILLAR

己Ji

Yin Earth

Yin Water

亥Pig

Hai

Yin Wood

MONTHPILLAR

Yi

乙Rabbit

卯Mao

Yin Wood

癸Gui

Yin Water

DAYPILLAR

Yang Metal

申Monkey

Shen

HOURPILLAR

Geng

庚Yang Metal

Hang Seng Earth Rooster

Earth

ly br

anch

es }

Bazi - Interplay determines our forecasts

OVERVIEW

FaMouS cHiMPS

Our cover is a representation of one of China’s most famous monkeys, Sun Wukong from the Ming

Dynasty (16th Century AD) novel, Journey to The West.

2016Feng Shui Index

the clsa feng shui Index for the Year of the goat 2015

GOAT

2015Feng Shui Index

EAR o e

Y

24,485

2 feb19,88811 Jan

Children’s favourite

curious George

HanumanHindu deity, and also revered in Balinese and Thai culture

Sanbiki No SaruJapanese three wise monkeys

BubblesMichael Jackson’s pet chimp

Sun Wukong as performed in Chinese opera

Sun Wukong

The MonkeesAmerican rock band

Monkey

申Shen

Yang Metal

YEARPILLAR

丙Bing

Yang Fire

Yang Wood

寅Tiger

Yin

Yang Metal

MONTHPILLAR

Geng

庚Dragon

辰chen

Yang Earth

丙Bing

Yang Fire

DAYPILLAR

Fire Monkey

Yin Metal

酉Rooster

You

HOURPILLAR

Ding

丁Yin Fire

4 5

The Wood Monkey lost his hold in the treetops early and by mid-May had fallen so far from the perch that the only way from there was up. It was clearly a year for paying peanuts and get-ting your money’s worth. Even if he’d tried to ape anyone else, by year-end, he’d only managed to change into the proboscis mon-key and finish a nose in front of where he’d started, making monkeys of us all.

Our Feng Shui Index forecast missed the early fall, but found the bananas by year-end.

CLS

A F

eng

Shui

Inde

x 20

04

Our Feng Shui Index forecast was a little extreme, but still tracked key market moves.

The Water Monkey spent the first two months as the bathing ape, floundering around as if the world were a barrel of monkeys. Finally he got that off his back and changed into the grease monkey, got down to work and showed us his white tail tuft for two months. From June through November, he perfected the quadrupedal knuckle walking trick and went nowhere fast. He then lost that monkey grip in a nasty fall before finishing the year slightly higher than he began.

The Metal Monkey skidded in through the savannah and spent the first month poking ants’ nests on the ground. From April through December, he lost his tail and became the climbing chimp on the monkey bars. Resting at the top, there he turned into a blue monkey and got down about things for a month or so before finishing the year as the alpha male of the powder monkey troop.

The Earth Monkey Dow slipped early in the year then found his nuts and rose, gibbon it was a different day and age, to heady heights not seen before in the world of man. From May through September, the sleeping monkey did not fall off the branch, and on waking headed for the canopy to enjoy the fruits of his liking from November on. But on the way up, he left his wrench somewhere and the following two years saw the Dow lose nearly half its value.

27 Feb: Stella Leibeck spills McDonald’s coffee; awarded US$2.86m.9 Mar: PRC ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.20 Apr: Seville Expo 92 opens.23 May: Italian judge Giovanni Falcone is murdered by mafia bomb. 20 Jun: Estonia gets its own currency, ending the rule of the ruble.22 Jul: Pablo Escobar escapes from his luxury prison.3 Aug: Wang Hongwen from the Gang of Four dies.8 Sep: Japan sends troops abroad for the first time since WWII.18 Dec: Kim Young-sam wins the South Korean election.20 Jan: Bill Clinton is sworn in as the 42nd President of the USA.

30 Jan: North Vietnam launch the Tet Offensive.16 Mar: The My Lai Massacre.29 Apr: The musical Hair opens on Broadway.29 May: De Gaulle flees Paris after the demonstrations against him.8 Jun: Chiang Kai-shek calls the CCP the origin of disasters in East Asia.27 Jul: End of Red-Guard power over the army in Cultural Revolution.21 Aug: Soviet tanks enter Prague.11 Oct: The first manned Apollo mission blasts off.9 Dec: The first demonstration of the computer mouse.20 Jan: Richard Nixon inaugurated as the 37th President of the USA.

13,727

22 Jan

950

16 Feb

4,711

4 Feb

860

30 Jan

13,8468 Feb

1,6514 Feb

5,91422 Jan

94516 Feb

Hang Seng Index

Hang Seng Index

Dow Jones IndexHang Seng Index

PREVIOUS YEARSPrevious years

1992 Water Monkey

1980 Metal Monkey

1968 earth Monkey

2004 Wood Monkey

4 Feb: Facebook is launched.19 Mar: Shooting of Chen Shui-bian in Tainan.1 Apr: Google launches Gmail.28 Jul: The Chinese establish the Yellow River site in the Arctic.13 Aug: Opening of the Summer Olympics in Athens.21 Sep: Construction begins on the Burj Khalifa.27 Oct: Discovery of the remains of Homo Floresiensis in Indonesia.21 Nov: Crash of China Eastern Airlines flight MU5210.

25 Feb: A military coup takes place in Suriname.4 Mar: Robert Mugabe elected Prime Minister of Zimbabwe.22 May: Pac-Man game is released in Japan.25 Jul: AC/DC release Back in Black.

13 Aug: The base monthly wage in Taiwan rises to NT$12,365.10 Sep: Zhao Ziyang becomes the third Premier of the PRC.23 Oct: HK ends the Touch Base policy for illegal mainland immigrants.20 Nov: Gang of Four trial begins in the PRC.8 Dec: John Lennon shot dead.20 Jan: The hostages from the US embassy in Tehran are finally freed.

1

DESTROY CYCLE

NURTURECYCLE金

METAL

This year is going to get better. Shipping, banking, gambling

and retail will all make good ground. We happily announce that philosophy and arcane

studies belong to water and that their tide is rising - good for all of us, even if these stocks are not listed.

水WATER

木WOOD

From wood come the paper and lumber industries as well as timepieces, hairdressers and ingredients for

medicine and the like. This year may not be as good

as the last, but there are still some good

trees in this forest.

土EARTH

From our planet there is nothing

to go ape over. From earth come construction,

both buildings and capital, livestock rearing and real estate, all of which may not go baboon but should fare well. Leather and hotels are well indicated so expect some activity from right-wing politicians as they indulge in their primate sensibilities.

China strategy

Property

Resources

Renewables

Healthcare/Pharma

Retail

It is not only gold and silver that

should thrive this year - think autos and machinery

(good for monkey-bar makers); lawyers (always monkeying around);

martial arts (the drunken monkey form anyone?); and public servants (nah,

can’t think of any monkey-associated terms for them).

Financials

Autos/Machinery

It’s a fire year, but other elements are going to weigh it down.

Nonetheless, no-one should lemur as there is much to look forward to. Telecoms and computing

should not be making monkeys out of their supporters. Cosmetics, glasses and advertising may well come trooping in.

Gaming

Transport

Oil & Gas

Utilities

Telcos/Internet

Technology

China pps

Great transition 2 Switch to services softens freefall

Special report

September 2015

The chains that bind

Prospects for China in 2016

Special report

December 2015

China pps

CKI and Power Assets

Sector outlook

PAH/CKI trading history over past five years

Source: CLSA

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa

.com

For important disclosures please refer to page 32.

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Oct-

10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct-

11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct-

12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct-

13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct-

14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

(x) Power Assets px / CKI pxRatio offered

5-yr average

Rajesh Panjwani, CFA

Head of Power Research

[email protected]

+852 2600 8271

Shantnu Phutela

+852 2600 8483

26 October 2015

Hong Kong

Power

Power Assets

6 HK

Rec

U-PF

Market cap US$20.8bn

Price HK$76.30

Target HK$72.00

Up/downside -5.6%

Dividend yield 3.8%

CKI

1038 HK

Rec

SELL


Price HK$71.50

Target HK$61.00

Up/downside -14.7%

Dividend yield 3.1%

Merger and share-price ratios

Proposed merger ratio (revised):

1.066

CLSA’s view of likely merger ratio:

1.15-1.20

Base-case ratio assumption for our

target prices: 1.18

Current share-price ratio: 1.067

www.clsa.com

Don’t argue with Mr Market

Analysing the arguments justifying 1.066 merger ratio

The key justification for the 1.066 merger ratio is that it is based on

market prices, which are hard to argue against, and that no premium is

warranted given significant shared assets and cash. However, it is also

hard to justify a large deviation (from 1.3 to 1.066) in fair value over

January-September 2015 with no major triggers. Other analyses provided

also have shortcomings. If the deal fails Power Assets Holdings (PAH)

should fall less and outperform Cheung Kong Infra (CKI) if the ratio is

raised. We believe CKI is a disciplined but smart dealmaker and will do

what is needed, within limits, to get the deal done. Prefer PAH over CKI.

You can’t argue with market prices

CKI’s core argument seems to be that the merger ratio is based on market prices

which are more objective than analyst target prices and that it would be difficult

to justify a premium when both companies have substantial common assets and

cash. It is also difficult, however, to argue that the market has been wrong for five

years (1.3 avg ratio) and arrived at the “right” fair value in the 30 days preceding

8 September. There were no major events to explain c. 25% change in relative

value from January to September 2015, especially given shared assets and cash

form a large part of value. CKI could take a leaf out of the CSR-CNR merger -

mentioned by the independent financial advisor (IFA) in the circu

lar - and justify a

higher ratio than one based on the past average.

Contribution and comparative analyses overlook some core issues

The IFA’s analyses of “contribution” and “comparable companies” result in low

merger ratios because the valuation methods either do not give any value to PAH’s

cash stash or use 15x PE for PAH’s UK business while using 20.4x for CKI’s or end

up effectively valuing cash on PAH’s balance sheet at 1x but debt at as high as 3x.

The IFA highlights CKI’s higher earnings (though EPS would have been a better

measure) and dividend growth as a reason for the decline in share-price ratios.

While this argument holds some water it does not justify such a sharp move in

2015. Some factors that favoured CKI’s higher growth (lower earnings base, low

debt) and hindered PAH’s growth (drag from HKE’s flat profit) are no longer valid.

Life with or without the deal

CKI’s pro-forma net debt/equity is lower than our estimate but due to US$6.1bn

goodwill creation from asset revaluation. The deal would be at high risk if ISS

advises against it. We believe the ratio could be revised up in that event. If th

e deal

fails both CKI and PAH (and even CKH) stocks may fall and investors with may be

better off selling both. On a relative basis, we prefer PAH given lower ex-cash

valuations, stronger balance sheet and continued expectation of a special dividend.

Connecting friends

Tencent vs Facebook

Special report

April 2015

Lenovo HK$13.16 - BUY

Financials

Year to 31 March

13A 14A

15CL 16CL

17CL

Revenue (US$m)

33,873 38,707

46,821 56,404

62,651

Rev forecast change (%)

- -

(0.2) (8.3)

(4.9)

Net profit (US$m)

635 817

920 1,225

1,802

NP forecast change (%)

- -

34.5 63.1

56.1

EPS (US¢)

6.1 7.8

8.5 11.1

16.3

CL/consensus (32) (EPS%) -

- 110

123 136

EPS growth (% YoY)

32.8 27.3

9.6 30.0

47.1

PE (x)

27.7 21.8

19.9 15.3

10.4

Dividend yield (%)

1.4 1.8

1.3 1.9

3.0

ROE (%)

25.3 28.8

26.0 28.3

36.0

PB (x)

6.6 5.9

4.5 4.1

3.4

Source: CLSA


.com


Nicolas Baratte

[email protected]

+852 2600 8325

Cher Chen

+852 2600 8631

7 May 2015

Hong Kong

Technology

Reuters

0992.HK

Bloomberg

992 HK

Priced on 6 May 2015

HK HSI @ 27,640.9

12M hi/lo HK$13.56/8.34

12M price target HK$17.75

±% potential

+35%

Shares in issue 10.2m

Free float (est.) 58.5%

Market cap

US$18,860m

3M average daily volume

HK$528.8m

(US$68.2m)

Foreign s'holding 65.0%

Major shareholders

Legend Holding Limited 30.6%

Stock performance (%)

1

M 3M 1

2M

Absolute

17.5 14.4 50.7

Relative

7.4 2.2 19.9

Abs (US$)

17.5 14.5 50.8

Source: Bloomberg

www.clsa.com

90100

110120

130140

150160

170180

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

May 13Jan 14

Sep 14May 15

Lenovo (LHS)

Rel to HSI

(HK$)

(%)

Firing on three

Three growth engines are better than one

We see Lenovo’s growth drivers evolving from PCs to Servers, and further

ahead, Mobile. We expect Lenovo’s PC division to drive growth in FY16

but for this to be replaced by the Enterprise Server segment, which will

become the primary driver in FY17-18, and have low expectations of the

Mobile business until FY18. We revise up forecasts as these three drivers

compound overall growth warranting an upgrade to BUY from U-PF and

an increase in target from HK$11.48 to HK$17.75, implying 35% upside.

PC consolidation to continue but less margins upside

We expect that the PC market will continue to contract slowly (-3% Cagr

2014-17) and to consolidate till HP and Lenovo command 25% market share

each. This will drive further margin expansion but the low-hanging fruit are

behind us; we expect Lenovo’s PC operating margins to plateau at 4.8%

(FY18). As market share gains and margin expansion slow down, we forecast

the PC will drive the bulk of profit growth in FY16 (79%) but not beyond.

LenoIBM Enterprise gold mine

We do not expect a turnaround of the Enterprise (IBM x86 Server) division in

FY16 as enterprise qualifications are lengthy. We believe that LenoIBM can regain

most lost market share (IBM had 12% share in FY11, now 5.4%) and that

margin recovery potential is underestimated by the market. We forecast LenoIBM

market share to double over the next 4 years to 10% in FY18 and operating

margins to reach 8.5% (FY18). As a result, we expect Enterprise to be the

largest contributor to Lenovo’s profit growth from FY17-18 at 47%.

LenoMoto Mobile not material to earnings till FY18

We believe Lenovo bought Motorola as an insurance policy against Consumer PC

decline continuing. The acquisition is also acknowledgement that most PC brands

have failed to become smartphone brands. We think that LenoMoto’s strategy will

remain profitless in the low ASP mass-market until consolidation starts, possibly

from 2017-18. We forecast Mobile profit from FY17 and 1.3% OPM in FY18.

BUY for strong growth outlook

Lenovo will report end of May a weak March-15 quarter that we expect to be the

trough of earnings. We do not expect a rapid recovery in June quarter as

integration costs usually linger for longer than expected. Besides, there is no

quick fix for the loss-making Enterprise and Mobile divisions. Beyond a turbulent

2-3 quarters, we forecast EPS to increase by 30% in FY16, 47% in FY17 and

23% in FY18. We base our HK$17.75 price target on 14x FY17CL Non-GAAP EPS,

equivalent to 4.2x price/book for a 36% ROE.

Global automakers

Sector outlook

We forecast 8.2% passenger-vehicle shipment growth for 2015

Source: CLSA, CAAM

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com


(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

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60

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 15CL 16CL 17CL 18CL

PV (LHS)CV (LHS)

PV - YoYCV - YoY

(%)

(k units)

Alexious Lee

[email protected]

+852 2600 8722

Geoff Boyd

+65 6416 7853

Ben Xu, CFA

+86 21 2020 5807

6 May 2015

Global

Autos

China initiations

Dongfeng Motor 489 HK

Rec

BUY


Price HK$12.94

Target HK$19.59

Up/downside +51%

Great Wall Motor 2333 HK

Rec

U-PF


Price HK$59.15

Target HK$59.60

Up/downside +1%

Guangzhou Auto 2238 HK

Rec

SELL


Price HK$8.45

Target HK$7.99

Up/downside -5%

Global players

Ford Motor F US

Rec

O-PF

Target US$18.00

General Motors GM US

Rec

O-PF

Target US$40.00

Hyundai Motor 005380 KS

Rec

BUY

Target 211,000 won

Honda Motor

7267 JP

Rec

BUY

Target ¥4,900

Nissan Motor 7201 JP

Rec

BUY

Target ¥1,600

Toyota Motor 7203 JP

Rec

O-PF

Target ¥9,200

www.clsa.com

New roadmap

Policy risk is low, but competition is high

We are positive on China’s auto sector, forecasting a 7.2% unit-shipment

Cagr over 2015-17. While pollution and congestion are concerns, the risk of

government policy to curb sales is low. China’s economy is slowing but cars

are more affordable due to new payment terms and more entry-level

models. SUVs will be the main growth drivers, as this segment is relatively

immune to macro uncertainty. We reinitiate coverage on Dongfeng with a

BUY, Great Wall with an Underperform and Guangzhou Auto with a SELL.

SUVs - Protected drivers help Dongfeng

SUVs should continue to outperform in the passenger-vehicle (PV) segment.

Their larger size and better driver vision appeal to new drivers, as well as

second-time buyers upgrading from sedans. SUV penetration should pass 30% in

the next five years, similar to Korea in 2003. Dongfeng Motor (DFG) is likely to

be the biggest beneficiary due to its new product cycle in 2H15 and 2016.

Domestic brands winning more share

We expect domestic brands to continue their turnaround as a new subsidy of

Rmb3,000/unit for environmentally friendly PVs (engines under 1.6L) helps

lift market share, especially in price-sensitive regions. Japanese brands will

continue to struggle in FY15/16 and this could drag on Guangzhou Automobile

(GAC) as 80% of its shipments come from related JVs with Japanese brands.

No light at the end of the tunnel for GAC

The Chinese are buying more PVs in the entry-level small-class segment

(1L to 1.6L) as incremental demand shifts to poorer western provinces and

government subsidies make these models more affordable. GAC downscale

strategy (from B to A class) is not working out as it continues to lose share. If

the situation persists, we believe consensus will cut EPS forecasts due to price

and margin deterioration.

Top pick speeds ahead

We reinitiate on the sector with DFG as our top pick because we expect its

pipeline to benefit from SUV trends. Great Wall is profitable but faces market-

share and margin pressure amid stiff competition, despite its upscale

strategy. We are most negative on GAC due to its downscale strategy and see

risk to consensus EPS forecasts. We base our HK$19.59, HK$59.6 and

HK$7.99 target prices for the three stocks on 9.0x, 10.5x and 9.0x 16CL PE.

Three-part

Global automakers

report package

Phoenix Healthcare

HK$12.00 - BUY

Financials

Year to 31 December 13A 14A 15CL 16CL 17CL

Revenue (Rmbm) 887 1,206 1,431 1,869 2,216

Net profit (Rmbm) 90 230 254 372 443

Adjusted EPS (fen) 24.1 22.5 30.0 44.3 53.1

Adj EPS growth (% YoY) 34.7 (6.7) 33.2 47.9 19.8

CL/consensus (7) (EPS%) - - 94 108 104

PE (x) 39.4 42.2 31.7 21.5 17.9

PB (x) 3.4 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.2

Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1

FCF yield (%) 2.7 3.0 3.8 4.9 5.7

ROE (%) 8.6 14.2 14.7 18.8 19.2

Source: CLSA



Serena Shao

[email protected]

+852 2600 8278

Sisi Liu +852 2600 8212

30 July 2015

China Healthcare

Reuters 1515.HK

Bloomberg 1515 HK

Priced on 28 July 2015

HS CEI @ 11,173.0

12M hi/lo HK$16.50/10.72


±% potential +37%

Shares in issue 830.9m


Market cap US$1,291m


HK$60.2m (US$7.8m)

Major shareholders

Speed Key 30.0%


1M 3M 12M

Absolute (20.0) (24.2) 3.8

Relative (6.3) (0.2) 2.9

Abs (US$) (20.0) (24.3) 3.8

Source: Bloomberg

www.clsa.com

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

789

1011121314151617

Nov 13 Jun 14 Jan 15 Jul 15

Phoenix Healthcare

Rel to CEI (RHS)

(HK$)(%)

We appreciate your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll.

Please click here to view our voting matrix for this year.

Sound prognosis

Leading healthcare reformer amid industry reorganisation

Phoenix Healthcare (PHG) is China’s largest private-hospital group, with a

first-mover advantage in capitalising on new opportunities in the sector

amid government reforms which welcome capital inflows. It is a pioneer

of invest-operate-transfer agreements in the industry and one of Asia

Pacific’s few listed companies in the space. We initiate coverage on the

stock with a BUY and HK$16.44 target which implies 37% upside.

A key reform target

China’s healthcare sector is undergoing tremendous reform, particularly in the

services segment, which we expect to grow at 23% per annum over 2014-20,

outperforming mid-teens expansion for the overall industry. In 2009, the

central government released policies that support private-hospital

development, welcoming investor capital into the public sector to enhance

medical services, thus providing PHG with further development opportunities.

Policy-backed reforms

Based in Beijing, PHG is China’s largest private-hospital group by number of

beds, with 11 hospitals and 28 community clinics under management. We

expect the group to benefit from its established network by sharing doctors

and centralising procurement among its facilities as it further expands in the

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The region has a large population and rapidly-

growing demand for healthcare services.

Scarcity value

Asia-Pacific hospital and healthcare-services groups are trading at an average

premium of 100% to global peers in developed countries. This is mainly due

to the region’s limited medical resources relative to its ageing population and

also strong demand. There are only a few such listed companies operating in

Hong Kong and China. We expect this trend to continue for at least the next

five years, given the lengthy timeframe required to construct hospitals.

BUY for sustainable growth

We initiate coverage on PHG with a BUY rating and HK$16.44 target, using an

average EV/Ebitda of 18.6x 16CL of listed Asia-Pacific hospital and

healthcare-services groups, which equates to 28x 16CL PE. The valuation is

justifiable, given near-term profit growth of 34%/48% (adjusted) in 15/16CL,

sustainable long-term expansion and our DCF analysis of 9.1% WACC and 4%

perpetual growth rate.

Haier Electronics HK$22.40 - BUY

Financials Year to 31 December 13A

14A 15CL

16CL 17CL

Revenue (Rmbm) 62,263 67,134 73,174 80,286 90,404

Net profit (Rmbm) 2,037

2,447 2,854

3,264 3,783

CL/consensus (9) (NP%) -

- 100

97 95

EPS (Rmb)

0.72 0.86

0.99 1.13

1.31

EPS growth (% YoY) 20.2

20.1 14.7

14.3 15.9

PE (x)

24.7 20.6

17.9 15.7

13.5

Dividend yield (%)

0.4 0.5

0.6 0.7

0.8

FCF yield (%)

3.2 4.1

3.3 4.8

5.2

PB (x)

6.5 4.4

3.4 2.9

2.3

ROE (%)

30.7 25.5

21.6 19.9

18.8

Net cash per share (HK$) 2.9

4.0 3.9

4.9 6.4

Source: CLSA



Dawei Feng, CFA [email protected] +852 2600 8172 Xiaopo Wei, CFA

+852 2600 8639

19 May 2015 China Consumer Reuters

1169.HK

Bloomberg 1169 HK

Priced on 15 May 2015 HS CEI @ 14,009.8

12M hi/lo HK$25.75/18.00


±% potential +24%

Shares in issue 2,835.0m


Market cap

US$8,073m


HK$182.4m (US$23.5m)

Major shareholders

Qingdao Haier 45.6%


1M 3M 12M

Absolute (2.4) 8.7 21.6

Relative 1.3 (6.9) (13.6)

Abs (US$) (2.4) 8.9 21.6

Source: Bloomberg www.clsa.com

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

May 13 Jan 14 Sep 14 May 15

Haier ElectronicsRel to CEI (RHS)

(HK$)

(%)

Home-run hit Logistics and rural expansion back sustainable growth

Strong brand equity, leading logistics services and an expansive rural

distribution network are the key drivers for Haier’s long-term sustainable

growth. A clear leader in China’s “bulky-item” logistics space, the

potential recovery in the country’s property market and soft input costs

could also be near-term catalysts. We forecast a 15% three-year Ebit

Cagr over 2015-17. Our HK$27.80 SOTP-based target implies the

company can deliver a 25% return and we initiate coverage with a BUY.

Logistics powerhouse Haier is the leader in China’s bulky-item logistics segment with unmatched scale

and top-notch service. This category differs from parcel delivery as it requires

special handling and meticulous planning, including warehousing, transport and

last-mile operations. Replicating Haier’s advantages would not be easy and

these core competencies will support the expansion of its integrated channel

services (ICS) business and allow it to profit from the e-commerce boom.

Rural expansion Haier is among the few operators with a deep, yet tightly managed, distribution

network. This differentiates it from peers such as Midea or Gree, which heavily

rely on distributors for fulfilment. We see upside to rural consumption, given it

is about 10 years behind urban levels. Under Haier’s partnership with Alibaba,

we see more innovation and cooperation in its rural expansion.

Cash cow We expect manufacturing to remain the cash cow supporting long-term

growth in logistics expansion and rural penetration. We assign tremendous

value to the Haier brand and favour its relatively stable competitive

landscape. In addition, Euromonitor data suggest that retail prices for white

goods in China are still low, even compared with emerging markets like Brazil

and the Philippines, implying premiumisation upsides.

Initiate with a BUY In the near term, the potential recovery of China’s residential property market

and the soft input costs are positive for earnings. We value the manufacturing

and ICS units at 12x and 16x EV/Ebit against 11% and 20% Ebit Cagrs during

2015-17. Our sum-of-the-parts-based (SOTP) target price of HK$27.80

implies 19x 16CL fully-diluted EPS. Our DCF valuation of HK$31.60 supports

this target and we initiate coverage with a BUY.

CGN Power HK$3.20 - UNDERPERFORM

Financials Year to 31 December 12A 13A 14CL 15CL 16CL

Revenue (Rmbm) 17,325 17,110 20,125 20,867 28,101

Net profit (Rmbm) 4,145 4,195 5,504 6,048 7,502

EPS (Rmb) 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.13 0.17

CL/consensus (5) (EPS%) - - 100 95 97

EPS growth (% YoY) (42.7) (7.2) (21.0) 9.9 24.0

PE (x) 20.9 19.0 15.4

Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.1

FCF yield (%) (6.5) (8.4) (4.7) (11.0) (7.3)

PB (x) 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9

ROE (%) 24.6 21.3 14.7 11.3 12.9

Net debt/equity (%) 304.3 229.4 91.9 161.1 162.0

Source: CLSA Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com

Rajesh Panjwani [email protected] +852 2600 8271 Johnny Lau +852 2600 8175

16 January 2015

China Power Reuters 1816.HK Bloomberg 1816 HK Priced on 15 January 2015 HS CEI @ 12,190.5

12M hi/lo HK$3.62/2.78 12M price target HK$3.25 ±% potential +2%

Shares in issue 11,163.6m Free float (est.) 22.0% Market cap US$18,756m

3M average daily volume HK$1,160.7m (US$149.7m) Foreign s'holding 22.0% Major shareholders CGNPC 64.2% Hengjian Investment 7.5%

Stock performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (10.1) 0.0 0.0 Relative (17.3) 0.0 0.0 Abs (US$) (10.1) 0.0 0.0

Source: Bloomberg

www.clsa.com

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

2.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.8

9 Dec 14 27 Dec 14 14 Jan 15

CGN Power (LHS)Rel to CEI

(HK$)(%)

Growth at a price Earnings stability and expansion already priced in Nuclear-power operator CGN offers something few companies in China do

- earnings stability, a long-term growth theme and an antipollution angle.

However, the stock seems to have already priced these in. China’s rapid

nuclear-capacity expansion amid slowing power demand puts CGN’s

utilisation hours at risk. Earnings could also fall if there are further delays

in its Taishan project or if tariffs are insufficient. We initiate with an

Underperform rating and a HK$3.25 target. Earnings stability and growth Fluctuations in uranium prices (c.6% of tariffs) have little impact on CGN

Power’s earnings. It also does not face big swings in utilisation hours like wind

or hydro. Over 20GW of nuclear capacity that started construction in 2008-10

will be commissioned in 2014-16. CGN’s attributable capacity will rise from

6.2GW in 2013 to 13GW in 2016, driving an 18% EPS Cagr over 14-17CL. Risk of lower utilisation hours China’s nuclear capacity is likely to rise by 150% during 2013-17, but its

power-demand growth is at a multiyear low. Thus, despite priority of

dispatch, nuclear plants’ utilisation hours will probably come under pressure.

New plants in Fujian and Liaoning will have much lower utilisation. We expect

utilisation of consolidated plants to decline from 89% to 84% over the next

few years. Each 1ppt decline in CGN’s utilisation hours reduces EPS by c.3%. Taishan overhang; slow growth from 2017 Taishan’s cost/MW is 70% higher than CGN’s other projects. We assume a

Rmb0.5/kWh tariff for Taishan, versus Rmb0.43 for other plants in Guangdong;

however, there is no guarantee that CGN will get a higher tariff. Given their

larger size, Taishan’s EPR reactors may also get lower dispatch. While CGN will

add 3.3-5.6GW of gross capacity annually in 2014-16, additions fall to 1.1GW

per annum over 2017-19. Any new construction starts will be commissioned

only after 2021, implying much slower earnings growth after 2017. Positives priced in CGN is one of the most expensive power utilities in Asia and seems to have

priced in the earnings stability and growth potential. Lower utilisation hours

and delays or lower tariffs for Taishan pose a risk to earnings and valuations.

We initiate with an Underperform rating as our HK$3.25 DCF-based target

price, using 7% WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate, implies little upside.

Novem

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China on-demand O2O digitising the service industry Special report

November 2015

5 M

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fail

China banks

Sector outlook - Overweight



Patricia Cheng

Head of China Financial Res

[email protected]

+852 2600 8683

Marco Yau

+852 2600 8555

5 May 2015

China

Financial services

Top BUYs

CCB 939.HK

Price HK$7.55

Target HK$10.00

TSR 38%

ICBC

1398.HK

Price HK$6.74

Target HK$8.70

TSR 34%

BOC

3988.HK

Price HK$5.33

Target HK$6.30

TSR 23%

Stocks to SELL

Minsheng 1988.HK

Price HK$11.38

Target HK$10.10

TSR (9%)

CMB

3968.HK

Price HK$23.45

Target HK$22.30

TSR (1%)

Underperform

ABC 1288.HK

Price HK$4.38

Target HK$4.70

TSR 13%

Bocom

3328.HK

Price HK$7.97

Target HK$8.30

TSR

8%

www.clsa.com

Not too big to fail

Escalating risks in the bond market

CHINA’S PLANS FOR REGIONAL INTEGRATION

SILK BELT SEA ROAD

AND

H SHARES AND REGIONAL STOCKS

“ONE BELT ONE ROAD”

OBOR

Produced by CLSA in cooperation with CITIC Securities

15

Sep

temb

er 20

15

Ch

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anks - M

imic an

d g

imm

ick

China banks

Sector outlook - Underweight



Patricia Cheng

Head of China Financial Res

[email protected]

+852 2600 8683

Marco Yau

+852 2600 8555

Lloyd Xu

+852 2600 8401

15 September 2015

China

Financial services

CCB

939 HK

Rec BUY


Price HK$5.41

Target HK$6.70

Up/downside +24%

ICBC

1398 HK

Rec BUY


Price HK$4.70

Target HK$5.40

Up/downside +15%

ABC

1288 HK

Rec U-PF


Price HK$3.04

Target HK$3.10

Up/downside +2%

Bank of China 3988 HK

Rec U-PF


Price HK$3.57

Target HK$3.60

Up/downside +1%

Bocom

3328 HK

Rec SELL


Price HK$5.54

Target HK$4.90

Up/downside -12%

CMB

3968 HK

Rec SELL


Price HK$18.84

Target HK$14.10

Up/downside -25%

Minsheng

1988 HK

Rec SELL


Price HK$7.30

Target HK$6.00

Up/downside -18%

www.clsa.com

Mimic and gimmick

Muted response to internet finance

15

September 2

01

5

Ch

inese ph

arma - W

eighin

g the gain

s

Chinese pharma Sector outlook - Overweight



Serena Shao

[email protected]

+852 2600 8278 Sisi Liu

+852 2600 8212

15 September 2015

China Healthcare

Top picks

Fosun Pharma 2196 HK

Rec

BUY


Price

HK$23.25

Target HK$28.40

Up/downside +22%

Luye Pharma

2186 HK

Rec

BUY


Price

HK$7.24

Target HK$9.32

Up/downside +29%

Others

CSPC

1093 HK

Rec

BUY


Price

HK$6.65

Target

HK$8.22

Up/downside +24%

Sino Biopharm 1177 HK

Rec

O-PF


Price

HK$9.39

Target HK$11.04

Up/downside +18%

www.clsa.com

Weighing the gains

R&D spending and experience pay

Research & sales offices www.clsa.com

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©2014 CLSA Limited (for research compiled by non-Taiwan analyst(s)) and/or Credit Agricole Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd (for research

compiled by Taiwan analyst(s)).

Key to CLSA/CAST investment rankings: BUY: Total stock return (including dividends) expected to exceed 20%; O-PF: Total expected return

below 20% but exceeding market return; U-PF: Total expected return positive but below market return; SELL: Total expected return to be negative.

For relative performance, we benchmark the 12-month total forecast return (including dividends) for the stock against the 12-month forecast return

(including dividends) for the market on which the stock trades. • We define as “Double Baggers” stocks we expect to yield 100% or more (including

dividends) within three years.

03/09/2014

CLSA is certified ISO14001:2004

CLEANGREEN&

TM

At CLSA we supportsustainable development.

We print on paper sourced fromenvironmentally conservativefactories that only use fibres

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-DG3

Octo

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01

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- New

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Chinormous E-commerce - New themes and developments

Special report

October 2014

Meet the Boss Sector outlook



Nicole [email protected]+852 2600 8207

10 December 2015ChinaProperty

www.clsa.com

China State Construction

Rethinking housing market destocking

China State Construction Chairman Zhou Yong was the second speaker at

our “Meet the Boss luncheon 2015”. From the eyes of a property analyst,

the most interesting takeaway from the event was that Mr. Zhou was the

second speaker to question the market’s current understanding of the

rate of housing market destocking. But it is not all gloom and doom for

the China economy, as FAI may be supported by “urban infra projects”

which are accelerating.Rethink on destocking

q One key area of interest during the lunch was whether the China housing market

destocking can happen quickly through government buyout for social housing

purposes, or by handing cash to residents that need to be resettled due to urban

redevelopment. q Mr. Zhou cautioned that this thought may be over-simplifying the issue, as excess

housing stock does not always exist in cities with population/economic growth with

redevelopment needs, or local government with a strong balance sheet.

q And even when a local government does have the balance sheet for redevelopment

and need for housing for resettlement, the private housing stock may not fit if they

are built too big (which we note is quite common) or to an overly luxurious

standard, and this will cause “fairness issues.”

q To dole out cash directly to families who need resettlement is difficult too as the

negotiation of a fair price may lengthen the process.

Non-housing FAI to pick up

q But while the real estate FAI may not reaccelerate soon, it is not all gloom and

doom.q The Central government, through reallocation of local government debt, and

funding platforms, such as the public private partnership scheme, is aiming to

accelerate a category of FAI that can be described as urban infrastructure

investment, which include: 1) city redevelopment, 2) underground railway

construction, 3) other mid-sized public facility projects such as hospitals, schools,

water treatment plants and electricity plants.

q This would probably cushion the social housing portion of the real estate FAI, which

may not grow at the breakneck rate of 2009-12, but should remain steady, as

much of the social housing is built for resettlement purposes.

q Indeed the company is now getting two visits per week from local governments

who are interested to commence a new project, up from less than one visit per

week earlier this year.Funding the currency mismatch

q The company currently has about 60% of its debt in foreign currency.

q RMB depreciation risk is a reason to further adjust the ratio.

q The good news is, funding via the domestic bond market is getting significantly

easier and significantly cheaper.

q And it is now possible to channel domestically raised funding to repay offshore

debt. In fact some RMB1.4bn of offshore debt was repaid this way.

Hong Kong construction – Severe labour shortage

q The company expects steady growth in Hong Kong and Macau construction in the

next 5 years due to infrastructure project commencement. This will keep Hong

Kong construction labour cost high as importing labour is difficult for HK.

q A professional cement stirrer is earning HK$80-120k per month for example. But is

still difficult to hire.q From the eye of a property analyst this means continuing cost pressure for HK

developers.

Blue Books Experts’ views for expert investors

Find CLSA U® products and event listings on www.clsau.com or email [email protected]. CLSA U® - Experts’ views for expert investors

Global Power

18 March 2015

Charles Yonts Head of Sustainable Research

[email protected]

+852 2600 8539 Guest author Chet Lyons Founder and Principal,

Energy Strategies Group

www.clsau.com

Battery ram Storage set to shake things up

Watch Charles on CLSA TV

China property

Sector outlook

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CapIQ and themarkets.com - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com

Nicole Wong

Head of Property Research

[email protected]

+852 2600 8207

Jackson Hui

+852 2600 8723

Susanna Leung

+852 2600 8597

5 May 2014

China

Property

Coli

688 HK

Rec BUY


Price HK$18.66

Target HK$25.50

Up/downside +37%

CR Land

1109 HK

Rec BUY


Price HK$15.56

Target HK$23.00

Up/downside +48%

Longfor

960 HK

Rec BUY


Price HK$10.22

Target HK$13.10

Up/downside +28%

Shimao

813 HK

Rec BUY


Price HK$15.42

Target HK$20.20

Up/downside +31%

Vanke

200002 CH

Rec BUY


Price HK$12.62

Target HK$17.40

Up/downside +38%

www.clsa.com

Lively ghost cities

Busting the vacancy myth

Includes our in-depth

study on housing

vacancy rates

China cleantech

Sector outlook

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and CapitalIQ -and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com


Charles Yonts

Head of Sustainable Research

[email protected]

+852 2600 8539

Johnny Lau

+852 2600 8175

16 September 2015

China

Power

Winners

Solar manufacturers

Xinyi Solar 968.HK

Battery makers

LG Chem 051910.KS

Samsung SDI 006400.KS

Renewable operators

Longyuan 916.HK

Huadian Fuxin 816.HK

Huaneng Ren 958.HK

Losers

Power-equipment names

Shanghai Electric 2727.HK

Dongfang Electric 1072.HK

IPPs

Huaneng 902.HK

Huadian 1073.HK

Datang 991.HK

www.clsa.com

Andrew Driscoll

Charles Yonts

Nicole Wong

Francis Cheung

Patricia Cheng

Alexious Lee

Nicolas Baratte

Rajesh Panjwani

Elinor Leung

Nelson Wang

Aaron Fischer

Serena Shao

Dawei Feng

BHP Billiton A$31.11 - BUY

Financials Year to 30 June

13A 14A 15CL 16CL 17CL

Revenue (US$m) 65,848 67,206 56,175 60,373 63,481

Net profit (US$m) 12,655 13,446 7,720 8,878 9,678

EPS (US¢) 229.6 244.0 140.1 161.1 175.6

CL/consensus (20) (EPS%) - - 88 105 92

EPS growth (% YoY) (32.6) 6.3 (42.6) 15.0 9.0

PE (x) 13.9 11.5 17.2 14.7 13.3

Dividend yield (%) 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.3 5.3

FCF yield (%) (2.0) 4.9 2.3 4.6 5.0

PB (x)

2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4

Net debt/equity (%) 41.2 30.3 33.2 33.1 32.2

EV/Ebitda (x) 7.1 5.5 6.5 6.2 5.7

Source: CLSA Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com


Andrew Driscoll, CFA Head of Resources Research [email protected] +852 2600 8528 Dylan Kelly +61 2 8571 4263 Dave Thompson +61 2 8571 4267

27 March 2015 Australia Materials

Reuters BHP.AX Bloomberg BHP AU Priced on 25 March 2015 ASX200 @ 5,973.3 12M hi/lo A$39.68/26.90 12M price target A$36.00 ±% potential +16%

Shares in issue 5,564.4m Free float (est.) 100.0%


3M average daily volume A$278.8m (US$220.1m) Major shareholders BlackRock 7.1%

Stock performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Absolute (7.1) 7.4 (13.4) Relative (7.6) (3.0) (22.6) Abs (US$) (6.6) 4.3 (25.3)

Source: Bloomberg

www.clsa.com

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Mar 13 Nov 13 Jul 14 Mar 15

BHP Billiton (LHS)Rel to ASX200

(A$)(%)

South’s silver lining Opportunities and threats for Cannington In the second of our series of reports on South32’s assets, we review

BHP’s Cannington mine, which generated 14% of 1HFY15 underlying

Ebitda. We see opportunities for cost out, particularly labour costs, and

potential for mine-life extension on underground ore additions, an open-

cut opportunity and tailings processing. The key challenge is combating

the declining grade profile, which could see production fall by one-third.

We expect the South32 demerger to create value and rate BHP a BUY. Earnings contributor The Cannington mine is one of 10 assets that BHP will spin off to form

South32. It is one of three first-quartile industry cost mining assets, and

contributed 14% and 19% to South32 assets’ underlying Ebitda and Ebit in

1HFY15. This was behind only the GEMCO and Hillside operations. Cannington

represents about 9% of our preliminary NPV for South32 of US$15.5bn.

High-grade silver-lead mine We commissioned industry expert Louis Louwrens to review the Cannington

operations. The asset is located in Queensland, Australia and comprises an

underground mining and processing facility, as well as rail-loading and port

infrastructure. It is one of the world’s largest and lowest-cost silver-lead mines,

which produced about 187kt of lead, 58kt of zinc and 25Moz of silver in FY14.

Opportunities and threats The key opportunity appears to be higher labour productivity and costs savings,

as labour has doubled in the past 14 years and we estimate now represents 24%

of total costs. There is potential for more staff cuts than tabled in the

Independent Competent Persons Report. We believe the open-cut development

will be reviewed again and see potential for reclaiming tailings (waste material)

to add mine life. The key challenge is the declining grade profile, which will weigh

on costs and could result in production falling by a third over the next six years.

Demerger to unlock value The demerger is progressing, with the shareholder vote on 6 May, ahead of

South32’s listing in early June. This should create value by simplifying BHP’s

portfolio to enable greater productivity benefits, and by providing a more

appropriate capital structure and operating model for South32’s assets. BHP’s

valuations are attractive at 0.8x P/NPV and 6.2x 16CL EV/Ebitda, while the 5%

dividend yield provides support. We rate BHP a High-Conviction BUY.

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Blue Books Experts’ views for expert investors

Find CLSA U® products and event listings on www.clsau.com or email [email protected]. CLSA U® - Experts’ views for expert investors


Global

Materials

15 June 2015

Andrew Driscoll, CFA

Head of Resources Research

[email protected]

+852 2600 8528

Guest author

Michael Komesaroff

Principal,

Urandaline Investments

www.clsau.com

Guinea gold Awaiting the next mining boom

Social pressures Chinese tourists keep exploring

Special report

January 2015

Special report January 2016 火FIRE

Sinopec

HK$4.48 - BUY

Financials

Year to 31 December

13A 14A

15CL 16CL

17CL

Revenue (Rmbm)

2,880,311 2,825,914 2,079,073 2,160,354 2,293,726

Net profit (Rmbm)

66,132 46,466

42,838 54,705

68,646

EPS (fen)

54.6 38.4

35.4 45.2

56.7

CL/consensus (28) (EPS%)

- -

101 103

109

EPS growth (% YoY)

3.5 (29.7)

(7.8) 27.7

25.5

PE (x)

6.5 9.3

10.5 8.2

6.5

Dividend yield (%)

6.8 5.6

4.9 4.9

6.1

FCF yield (%)

(7.7) (1.5)

1.6 7.6

12.8

PB (x)

0.8 0.7

0.6 0.6

0.6

ROE (%)

12.2 8.0

6.6 7.6

9.1

Net debt/equity (%)

47.4 49.5

29.4 26.4

21.4

Source: CLSA


.com


Nelson Wang

[email protected]

+852 2600 8589

Irina Bevza

+852 2600 8462

2 October 2015

China

Petro/Chems

Reuters

0386.HK

Bloomberg

386 HK

ADR

SNP.N

Priced on 29 September 2015

HS CEI @ 9,230.5

12M hi/lo HK$7.63/4.46


±% potential

+34%

Shares in issue 121,071.2m


Market cap

US$88,371m


HK$596.9m

(US$77.0m)

Foreign s'holding 15.0%

Major shareholders

Sinopec Group 74.0%


1M 3M 12M

Absolute

(13.5) (31.4) (34.7)

Relative

(8.6) (5.6) (26.1)

Abs (US$) (13.5) (31.4) (34.6)

Source: Bloomberg

www.clsa.com

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

4.04.5

5.05.5

6.06.5

7.07.5

8.08.5

Oct 13Jun 14

Jan 15Sep 15Sinopec (LHS)

Rel to CEI

(HK$)

(%)

Beyond petroleum

Non-fuel business to drive growth

Sinopec’s non-fuel business is set for 25-fold sales growth over the next

decade. The flagship Easy Joy convenience stores are transitioning from

kiosk-like stores to being integrated one-stop service providers. The

online-to-offline business, in partnership with e-commerce heavyweights,

will provide much-needed traffic for the company to monetise its 30,000

fuel stations nationwide, the biggest retail network in China. The IPO of

Sinopec’s marketing arm next year should be attractively priced. BUY.

Sweet spot from low oil prices

Being a downstream player, Sinopec is much better positioned than domestic

rivals PetroChina and CNOOC amid a low-oil-price environment, which looks

to be the new norm for the industry. Robust and sustainable downstream

earnings could offset upstream weakness. With our Brent assumption falling

in the range of US$54-65/bbl in this and the next two years, the company

has a sweet spot to maximise profits.

Non-fuel business set for rapid growth

With multiple strategic investors on board, we expect the company’s non-fuel

revenue to enjoy a 33% Cagr and gross profit a 30% Cagr over 2015-25. The

non-fuel business is moving towards being an integrated one-stop service

provider with auto and catering services, diversified financial services, the

internet of vehicles services, etc. All this should underpin fast growth in the

next decade with margin expansion due to high operating leverage.

From online to 30,000+ offline outlets

With over 30,000 fuel stations in China as potential offline outlets, the

company is seeking to ramp up the online-to-offline business in partnership

with leading e-commerce players such as Alibaba, Tencent and Yihaodian. We

are positive on this move as it will add traffic to the Easy Joy stores and

significantly improve the fuel to non-fuel customer conversion ratio.

Marketing IPO to unlock value

We expect Sinopec’s marketing business IPO to take place mid-2016. It w

as

slightly delayed due to the change in chairman. The public listing is

irreversible as it is part of the broader state-owned-enterprise reform that

Beijing initiated. We expect the deal to go ahead at 18x PE, valuing the

business at US$86bn. The IPO will unlock significant value for Sinopec

shareholders. We remain BUYers. We have adjusted our target price from

HK$7.0 to HK$6.0, implying upside of 34%.

Part of our China

Oil & Gas package

Rajani Khetan

China TransportSector outlook

PMI of new export orders vs Chinese exports

Source: WIND, CLSA Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and CapitalIQ - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(index)

(%)Export YoY (LHS) PMI - new export orders

Daniel [email protected]+852 2600 8355

Rajani Khetan+852 2600 8137

9 December 2015

ChinaTransport

www.clsa.com

Ports: Sliding into 2016Expect throughput to fall. Downgrade China Merchants to SELLWe lower our expectation for Chinese container throughput in 2016 from 2% growth to a 1% decline. The PMI for export orders has been fallingand is below 50; container throughput in the Pearl River Delta fell at a sharp 5% YoY in the past two months and we expect PRD to lead in the volume decline, as it did in late 2008. We downgrade China Merchants to SELL from O-PF, as we expect consensus downgrades and a de-rating; our target price on the stock has fallen to HK$22.00 from HK$30.00.We expect container throughput to fall in 2016q The PMI index for new export orders has been falling in the past 14 months and has

remained below 50, which should lead to a continuous weakening in exports and,hence, soft container throughput at Chinese ports. q We lower our forecast for Chinese container throughput in 2016 from 2% growth to

a 1% decline, on weak demand from Europe and Asia. q We also lower our expectation of container handling ASP from low-single-digit

growth to a low-single-digit decline. Pearl River Delta again leading in volume declineq Throughput at ports in Pearl River Delta (PRD) fell at a sharp ~5% YoY in the past

two months and we expect it to lead the volume decline, as it did in late 2008.q Processing trades, which change faster than normal trades, account for a larger

proportion of exports from the PRD. q Throughput at other regions lagged the PRD by about four months in 2008. Downgrade China Merchants to SELLq We downgrade our recommendation on China Merchants from O-PF to SELL.q We expect its share price to be under pressure, with earnings downgrades and a

likely de-rating. q We factor in lower volume and container handling ASP assumptions for 2016-17

which leads to an 11% decrease in our earnings forecast for both years. q Our SOTP-based target falls from HK$30.00 to HK$22.00, implying a 12.6x 16CL

PE, which is equal to its five-year average. Qingdao Port stands out among single-port operatorsq Among the single-port operators (all not rated by us), Qingdao Port and Xiamen

Port look better positioned given their larger exposures to logistics services, as the

companies are taking market share from traditional logistics companies. q On consensus valuations, Qingdao Port is also the cheapest, at a 7.3x 2015 PE.

14

Janu

ary 20

16

Ch

ina/H

K A

irlines - N

ot a good

hig

h

China/HK Airlines Sector outlook - Underweight



Rajani Khetan [email protected] +852 2600 8137

14 January 2016 Hong Kong Transport Air China

753 HK Rec SELL Market cap US$12,840m Price

HK$5.08 Target HK$4.90 TSR

-2% China Eastern 670 HK Rec

SELL Market cap US$11,863m Price HK$3.77 Target HK$3.30 TSR

-10% China Southern 1055 HK Rec

SELL Market cap US$10,333m Price HK$4.87 Target HK$4.00 TSR

-16% Cathay Pacific 293 HK Rec

U-PF Market cap US$6,546m Price HK$12.76 Target HK$12.90 TSR

+6%

www.clsa.com

Not a good high Currency drags on oil gains

Feb Mar

Apr May

Ju

n J

ul

Aug

Sep

O

ct

Nov

D

ec

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D

ec Jan

Feb Mar Apr M

ay Jun Jul Aug Sep O

ct Nov Dec Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul A

ug Sep Oct N

ov Dec Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov D

ec Jan

6 7

From 2013 through 2015, the elements stayed in relatively

similar positions. Not so this year, metal and water - which have not been so strong for the past few years - make inroads. They completely dominate the beginning of the year, and both finish strongly. Earth is still quite decent and has a strong late period. While it is the Fire-Monkey year, that element flares through the middle of the year but otherwise is not as strong as it was. Wood runs to around the same level as water, but the fire is scorching some of it.

Elementary analysisSector selection based on five phases

SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS

Generating cycle

Overcoming cycle

Great: Bananas

Good: Coconuts

Not so bad: Peanuts

Avoid: Toadstool

8 9

It’s your year, so time to don your red socks and smalls. But you’ve got the Tai Sui and some other nasties crowding in. You’ll want to watch out for squabbles in the branches about you at work and the patterns on the ground - if the contract says five bananas for free, check the fine print. At some point you’ll be back brooding in a cave, but a weekly audit of your candles and rations will see you through.

猴Health February and August would be a good time not to monkey around with your cell phone while driving. Lots of liquid will keep the gremlins and Tai Sui at bay: brush your teeth, shower once a month and juice those bananas. The Jianfeng star is also threatening, so those who work in timber mills may want to avoid the bandsaw.

Wealth You know those nuts you put away for a rainy day? Don’t make any big jungle calls or you might find yourself huddled in a cave nibbling your final stash - ‘peanuts in, peanuts out’ is your motto for the year. If you’re the chimp running the tuckshop at the zoo, make sure the sharks pay, otherwise that’ll be your pocket.

Love Last year the auspicious red phoenix came-a-calling and if something began then, it’s time to put it on a more solid footing, marriage by any other name - and remember that one happiness can keep three miseries at bay. Monkeys are at risk of preening a little too much in the mirror this year, don’t fall for yourself, fall for another - they are out there.

Career You have enough wicked stars in your stars so make sure you have a strategy in place before you go ape. The beginning and end of the year are full of obstacles so summon your magic monkey cloud and make the most of the opportunities that do present. Making your own luck brings rewards.

Verdict: We think this means that if you are running a dairy and it all goes south then you should take up busking in Central. The fire is the sun going down, in more than oriental splendour, as reflected in the buildings. Sing your heart out!

Guiding hexagram from the Yi-Jing (Book of Changes)

Directions for bed, workstation and lounge

Fire Monkey:08 Feb 2016 - 27 Jan 201712 Feb 1956 - 30 Jan 1957

Wood Monkey:22 Jan 2004 - 08 Feb 200525 Jan 1944 - 12 Feb 1945

Water Monkey:04 Feb 1992 - 22 Jan 199306 Feb 1932 - 25 Jan 1933

Metal Monkey:16 Feb 1980 - 04 Feb 198120 Feb 1920 - 07 Feb 1921

Earth Monkey:30 Jan 1968 - 16 Feb 196902 Feb 1908 - 21 Jan 1909

離Li

hexagram

The Clinging

30

Judgement Image LineThe Clinging. Perseverance furthers. It brings success. Care of the cow brings good fortune.

That which is bright rises twice: the image of fire. Thus the great man, by perpetuating this brightness, illumines the four quarters of the world.

Nine in the third place means in the light of the setting sun, men either beat the pot and sing or loudly bewail the approach of old age. Misfortune.

ZODIAC SIGN GUIDE

6 7Lucky numbers

Colours for walls and clothing

Red Yellow Purple

Green Blue

SEW

NW

NE S

Good Dubious

Good Dubious

MonkeyForewarned is forearmedForces of malevolent energy in the Year of the Monkey

Monkeys know that one of the best ways to mitigate the evil forces coming your way is to eat the peaches of immortality, otherwise perhaps a personal trainer with very short shorts will keep your mind on positive energies. The usual suspects are the Tai Sui, Tsui Po, San Sha and Wu Wang - ghostly forces meandering across the fengshui firmament, so if the predictions are not in your favour, purchase a cannister of reality from your local 7-11 and breathe deep, you’ll be fine.

Every year the Tai Sui is manifested through one of the 60 generals or other figures from the Taoist pantheon. This year it is no less than Guan Zhong (管仲) whose reputed dates are 725BC-645BC. A close reading of the classics reveals he is only moonlighting as the Grand Duke of Malice, having spent most of the historical record as the patron saint of Overthrowing Rightful Despotic Rulers. The only instance of this happening in Chinese history took place in the eastern state of Qi during the Warring States Period when the Tian family dispensed with the rulers but did not change the name of the state. Into their service in this endeavour they pressed Guan Zhong. So if you’re a rightful autocratic and despotic ruler, of either a state or just your living room, you’ll want to be ameliorating Guan Zhong’s predilection for placing principle above power. Oh, he’s camped out in South-West 3 this year, and since he hates earthworks, expect further delays to the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge.

This year you’ll find the Robbery, Disaster and Yearly Killings leaping in through the South, from 142.5° to 217.5°, so it’s good to avoid doors in that direction (Puyi, that lucky monkey, has left the Forbidden City and is safe), and if you can’t avoid doors, then close them quietly. You should also sit facing south and have pairs of fu-dogs, qilins and piyaos at the door. Even if they don’t stop the bad luck, you’ll probably get a cameo appearance the next time they shoot Noah’s Ark.

This year the star is in the North-East, with the Five Yellows in the same direction and the Tai Sui opposite. It’s yet another dangerous year to go to sleep in case you should end up in one of those directions. Monkey’s headband was not just so that the monk Tripitaka could control him, it also made him sleep in auspicious directions.

Five Yellows is in the North-East. If you have a telescope handy, train it between 22.5° and 67.5° and you’ll see them heading our way. Most experts advise the full frontal response. Tigers and Oxen will find the combination of the earth element with the Wu Wang distressing as earth is its native element. See page 24 for more.

Tai Sui - The Grand Duke Jupiter: in charge of the world’s affairs this year

San Sha - Three Killings

Tsui Po - The Year Breaker

Wu Wang - Five Yellows

SAN SHA (SOUTH)

N

N

FIVE YELLOW(NORTH-EAST)

AFFLICTION DEFLECTION

10 11

ZODIAC SIGN GUIDEZODIAC SIGN GUIDE



Lucky numbersLucky numbers



Good Dubious Good Dubious


Guiding hexagram from the Yi-Jing (Book of Changes) Guiding hexagram from the Yi-Jing (Book of Changes)

DogNose up: the fox is in the henhouse and the game’s afoot, no need to be hounded by those above you. Nose down: it could be a mongrel of a year, but don’t cur(se) about it or let it dog you. You might spend a lot of time chasing hubcaps but remember, someone is always going to see a man about a dog - you’ve not been forgotten! There’s not a lucky star in sight, but the wicked ones are no more ferocious than a poodle getting its nails done.

狗Health You’ll want to corral whatever was going on last year - don’t let those intestinal worries worm their way through to this one. You have the tablets, take them, failing that the hair of the dog might be what you’re after. No need to mutter anything.

Wealth You’ll want to dachshund into the bank, pointer at the counter, and retriever the money. Make sure to hang around lamp posts and mark your territory. Perhaps even put up the sign “cave canem”, if the volcano can’t dog your days who else will try? No need to be as mean as a junkyard dog, but be aware that every dog has his day and this is possibly not yours.

Love Is this the year for the shaggy dog story? Those with puppy eyes take heart, the lost dogs’ home is open for business and it’s, well, raining cats and dogs (the former for those keen on miscegenation). You don’t have to spend the year alone in the doghouse, March, May and November are looking good for getting up with fleas.

Career This year the bark is worse than the bite: not a year for climbing up that slippery pole, but a year to take paws and turn several circles and mark that territory. Not a good year to keep nipping at the heels of the top dogs, unless you’re particularly interested in having a dog’s life. Let sleeping dogs lie, they say, for you that means lie in wait, that chance will come.

Verdict: Laugh again dog, the cat is going to get it where it hurts. No, maybe this is about something else. Fighting the unforeseen and a dog without sincerity? The world has gone mad. Follow the king to the temple, perhaps he will talk to the grasshopper, perhaps not. Good luck!

Fire Dog:29 Jan 2006 - 17 Feb 200702 Feb 1946 - 21 Jan 1947

Wood Dog:10 Feb 1994 - 30 Jan 199514 Feb 1934 - 03 Feb 1935

Water Dog:25 Jan 1982 - 12 Feb 198328 Jan 1922 - 15 Feb 1923

Metal Dog:06 Feb 1970 - 26 Jan 197110 Feb 1910 - 29 Jan 1911

Earth Dog:18 Feb 1958 - 07 Feb 195922 Jan 1898 - 09 Feb 1899

萃Cui

hexagram

gaThering TogeTher

45

Judgement Image LineGathering Together. Success. The king approaches his temple. It furthers one to see the great man. This brings success. Perseverance furthers. To bring great offerings creates good fortune.

Over the earth, the lake: the image of Gathering Together. Thus the superior man renews his weapons in order to meet the unforeseen.

Six at the beginning means if you are sincere, but not to the end, there will sometimes be confusion, sometimes gathering together. If you call out, then after one grasp of the hand you can laugh again.

RoosterPut on kneepads for those funny little legs of yours since you’ll be at the back of the coop on your knees lighting joss and praying a lot to the patron saint of roosting. You’ll find challenges flocking in; best not to grouse about them. Beaks to the ground and feathers crossed and you’ll make it through. The high point of the year will be not falling off the perch.

雞Health You have an evil star lurking in your hutch. The chicken catchers have their eyes on your liver and kidneys, and if they invite you for a swim in August then proffer your best poultry excuse to avoid their fowl plans. Traffic accidents are indicated, so perhaps this is not the year to take up crossing the road.

Wealth Looks like a pheasant year ahead for you. What price a reputation? The money you’ll make may be chicken-feed to others; but this is the time for rising up the pecking order in your line of work. Your bank account is not going to take wing, but if you don’t go off half-cocked, we’re sure you can pullet off.

Love A Rooster’s heart is small but mighty and this year new coops may be on the menu. Year-end might get a little messy as all those chicks get put together, but before that happens you’ve a chance to be cock-a-hoop; South-East is the direction those steroids they’re feeding you will have you look.

Career A higher perch is calling, but Roosters note that the straight road leads only to the abattoir. Expect obstacles and fowl play. May might be a good time for spring chickens to fly out of the hutch and grab pole position before the others come home to roost.

Verdict: No remorse is good, and if you’ve never done anything to be remorseful about, then you have one in the bank. The three days thing is good - we think it means moving to the French Riviera and not working so much.

Wood Rooster:09 Feb 2005 - 28 Jan 2006 13 Feb 1945 - 01 Feb 1946

Water Rooster:23 Jan 1993 - 09 Feb 199426 Jan 1933 - 13 Feb 1934

Metal Rooster:05 Feb 1981 - 24 Jan 198208 Feb 1921 - 27 Jan 1922

Earth Rooster:17 Feb 1969 - 05 Feb 197022 Jan 1909 - 09 Feb 1910

Fire Rooster:31 Jan 1957 - 17 Feb 195802 Feb 1897 - 21 Jan 1898

巽Sun

hexagram

The genTle

57

Judgement Image LineThe Gentle. Success through what is small. It furthers one to have somewhere to go. It furthers one to see the great man.

Winds following one upon the other: the image of the Gently Penetrating. Thus the superior man spreads his commands abroad and carries out his undertakings.

Nine in the fifth place means perseverance brings good fortune. Remorse vanishes. No beginning, but an end. Before the change, three days. After the change, three days. Good fortune.

5 7

Yellow Orange Red

Grey Blue Coffee

White Grey

Yellow Red

E SWNW

SEW

NW

NE SE

N E

3 6

12 13










RatAs far as you’re concerned, it’s not so much what’s in the stars as whether the moon is really made of cheese and how much of it you can get. Still, the stars say that your career goes up even if health might be a worry. On neither account should you consider bending over; remember when asked why only rats abandon a sinking ship that it’s because a better one is rising.

鼠Health Hygiene is humbly suggested as a lifestyle choice. Amusingly enough, the prognostications say that oral health is also good for you - not that we think you have an oral fixation, but those teeth make you look like you’re auditioning for the politburo c.1970. In the second half remember - no gnawing and nibbling - bite off as much as you can chew.

Wealth Don’t bother taking the ferry to Macau - you’ve been banned for the year. But what about that Mahjong game in the rathole around the corner? We doubt there is anyone as cunning as you. Still, you’re advised to look out for scams - one of your brothers in rodenthood has turned and is attacking his own.

Love Good news Ratty, as the world population heads north of seven billion, you’re going to have the opportunity to play cat and mouse with someone this year . . . who would’ve thought? The stars say stay in your hole for the first half of the year; let them come to you. For those keen on rug rats, note that love is not the column you want here.

Career Perhaps there is a reason they named the rat race after you. You’re up for a podium finish this year if you don’t spend too much time ratting around. The number of good stars in your chart here is embarrassing. Quiet as a church-mouse and they’ll still find a way to lift you up. No harm in trying out your boss’ chair when it’s empty.

Sheng

hexagram

Pushing uPward

46

Earth Rat:07 Feb 2008 - 25 Jan 200910 Feb 1948 - 28 Jan 1949

Fire Rat:19 Feb 1996 - 06 Feb 199724 Jan 1936 - 10 Feb 1937

Wood Rat:02 Feb 1984 - 19 Feb 198505 Feb 1924 - 24 Jan 1925

Water Rat:15 Feb 1972 - 02 Feb 197318 Feb 1912 - 05 Feb 1913

Metal Rat:28 Jan 1960 - 14 Feb 196131 Jan 1900 - 18 Feb 1901

Verdict: Dear Ratty, a career as a much-loved lobbyist awaits. Most folk would regard ‘pushing upward in darkness’ and being ‘unremittingly persevering’ as less than ideal character traits; but as you’ve made them aware, time and time again, their jealousy won’t make them better people. Press on, regardless.

Judgement Image LinePushing Upward has supreme success. One must see the great man. Fear not. Departure toward the south brings good fortune.

Within the earth, wood grows: the image of Pushing Upward. Thus the superior man of devoted character heaps up small things in order to achieve something high and great.

Six at the top means pushing upward in darkness. It furthers one to be unremittingly persevering.

PigPigsy is the helper of Monkey. Though you may be assailed by swine at every turn, remember the monkey has not forgotten you and that you still have something in the piggy-bank, no-one else need be bringing home your bacon. The spring and autumn forecasts are for rain, do you want to be a pig in mud? Summon your inner razorback. You’ll not be hogging the limelight, but you’re no ruminant.

猪Health Piglet, while the Flying Stars this year see the No.2 Illness Star at centre stage, which threatens an outbreak of communicable disease, we’re confident it isn’t a new strain of Swine Flu. Your health is looking good, although rest is encouraged from September. Best not bore everyone with details of your rashers. They’re minor and will clear up.

Wealth For those warthogs roaming the savannah of self-employment and consultancy, this year is a good one to survey the clover laid out before you. For those whose coin comes in regularly, you’ll need to shout that you’ve got the right stuff if you want more of it.

Love Swine, women and song. You were made for love, oink oink! The Tai Sui will try to send you to the piggery. But remember, the more you’re rejected, the closer you get to the piggyback that will lift your piggy spirits and the one that will allow you to make a pig of yourself. Pearls before swine is just what you want!

Career Well, once upon a time there was an animal farm, and the pigs did rather well. Wonder where that farm may be today? Patience and perseverance, and it’s the early pig who gets the promotion - just make sure that’s not a sale of fresh pork at the supermarket.

Verdict: So Pigsy, did you read that bit just above - yes, you can visit the fridge at 3am for just another little bit of cake and not feel bad about it. The great good fortune comes from you buying shares in that bakery.

Fire Pig:18 Feb 2007 - 06 Feb 200822 Jan 1947 - 09 Feb 1948

Wood Pig:31 Jan 1995 - 18 Feb 199604 Feb 1935 - 23 Jan 1936

Water Pig:13 Feb 1983 - 01 Feb 198416 Feb 1923 - 04 Feb 1924

Metal Pig:27 Jan 1971 - 14 Feb 197230 Jan 1911 - 17 Feb 1912

Earth Pig:08 Feb 1959 - 27 Jan 196010 Feb 1899 - 30 Jan 1900

復Fu

hexagram

reTurn (Turning PoinT)

24

Judgement Image LineReturn. Success. Going out and coming in without error. Friends come without blame. To and fro goes the way. On the seventh day comes return. It furthers one to have somewhere to go.

Thunder within the earth: the image of the Turning Point. The kings of antiquity closed the passes at the time of solstice. Merchants and strangers did not go about, and the ruler did not travel through the provinces.

Nine at the beginning means return from a short distance. No need for remorse. Great good fortune.

14 69

Red Yellow Purple

Orange White Yellow

Green Black

Blue Green

SE SWW

E W

NW

N S

N SE

升

15

ZODIAC SIGN GUIDE


Lucky numbers


Good Dubious

Good Dubious


14

ZODIAC SIGN GUIDE


Lucky numbers


Good Dubious

Good Dubious


TigerThe Tai Sui and Monkey are not your friends. You can eat the latter but then there’s indigestion to deal with. It’s not a fair world and you’ll not be able to cheetah your way out. Health is the one to watch so you’ll need the lion’s share of goodness. This year may not be so much the leopard changing his spots as you changing everything else. Winter tigers may follow prey they spotted last year; do not grab a Tiger by the tail, even if it is your own.

虎Health Accidents with vehicles loom on that road ahead: perhaps let in another driver once or twice, they’re only paper tigers and you’ve nothing to lionise them for. Alternatively get yourself a chauffeur and head for the tiger reserve - a spa and a river swim will have you singing like a jaguar. If in doubt get some tiger-bone plaster and er . . .

Wealth So they come to you with the deal of a lifetime - they’ve got to be kitten if they think you’ll fall for that. Besides, you’ll be wanting the lion’s share. Some caution is called for - stalking your intended may not be acceptable, but stalking a little more dollar is entirely reasonable. Follow the lynx in the chain and that pot of gold could be yours.

Love Hmm, who doesn’t love a cougar? Or riding a tiger? All that is certain is that this year brings change and emotions fickle and obscure, it is difficult to say what is for the better. Tomcat or tabby, whichever you’re seeking, just make sure it’s snow leopard, and those spots aren’t changing. A little considered digestion and correct hunting habits (nocturnal) will have you purring.

Career The knives might be out for you, but if there’s one sign that can walk the precipice without fear, that’s you. It’s also a good year to learn from other people’s mistakes - there are already more than enough copies in the world.

Verdict: And why must she attend to the food? Because you’ll be attending a conference on feminism and, well, someone’s gotta cook da food. Look on the bright side, if you fly to the USA you get to time travel, but only by a day; if you follow this sage wisdom you can travel back to, well at least the neolithic age; before that our instruments don’t function properly. Let us know how it goes - we’ll probably still be at that conference.

Metal Tiger:14 Feb 2010 - 02 Feb 201117 Feb 1950 - 05 Feb 1951

Earth Tiger:28 Jan 1998 - 15 Feb 199931 Jan 1938 - 18 Feb 1939

Fire Tiger:09 Feb 1986 - 28 Jan 198713 Feb 1926 - 01 Feb 1927

Wood Tiger:23 Jan 1974 - 10 Feb 197526 Jan 1914 - 13 Feb 1915

Water Tiger:05 Feb 1962 - 24 Jan 196308 Feb 1902 - 28 Jan 1903

Jia ren

hexagram

The Family

37

Judgement Image LineThe Family. The perseverance of the woman furthers.

Wind comes forth from fire: the image of the Family. Thus the superior man has substance in his words and duration in his way of life.

Six in the second place means she should not follow her whims. She must attend within to the food. Perseverance brings good fortune.

OxYour outside might be mostly hide, but this year the fates decree that you are sacred. Your ascent up the cow path, strewn with the pats and dung that your enemies are now covered in, will have you lowing in pleasure. You get to take yourself by the horns, and it’s cream and banana pie for you. Milk it for all it is worth.

牛Health In the first half, some of your plumbing might still be plumbing the depths that the Goat reduced you to last year. Once the summer passes, you’ll be like a bull at a gate. You will be the “live-stock”, and your calves will be muscling out. Cattle raiding is off the menu - you have the constitution of an Ox.

Wealth Your investments may need some gestation time, but they’re udder certainties. No gambling over the summer as you won’t hit the bull’s-eye, and come October you’ll want to steer clear of risks in case you get polled, what you’re seeing then may not be the veal thing.

Love Moooon river . . . you can make eyes this year. Your investments in this area should last at least a Minotaur two longer than others. Establish the taurophilic temple and watch them leather themselves up: you are the tempting bovine, graze where you may.

Career Bull in a China shop? Bull in any shop! The Tai Sui has gone, the land is yours until the cows come home, and you shan’t be cowed this year. No need for rumination, you can hoof it as soon as you’re ready. No need to beef up that resume; no need to blow on the longhorn; they’ve herd you this year and it’s a bull market.

Verdict: Lordy, lordy, isn’t this just fun. It turns out that what many had mistaken as some sort of personality defect turns out to be a culturally valuable characteristic. Your habit of, as your detractors near the water-cooler term it, ‘Going the White Pointer’ is historically attested. You always had a suspicion that once they examined you, they’d have to rewrite the evolution textbooks - and there you go.

Earth Ox:26 Jan 2009 - 13 Feb 201029 Jan 1949 - 16 Feb 1950

Fire Ox:07 Feb 1997 - 27 Jan 199811 Feb 1937 - 30 Jan 1938

Wood Ox:20 Feb 1985 - 08 Feb 198625 Jan 1925 - 12 Feb 1926

Water Ox:03 Feb 1973 - 22 Jan 197406 Feb 1913 - 25 Jan 1914

Metal Ox:15 Feb 1961 - 04 Feb 196219 Feb 1901 - 07 Feb 1902

Shi ke

hexagram

BiTing Through

21

Judgement Image LineBiting Through has success. It is favourable to let justice be administered.

Thunder and lightning: the image of Biting Through. The kings of former times made firm the laws through clearly defined penalties.

Nine at the beginning means his feet are fastened in the stocks, so that his toes disappear. No blame.

52 78

RedBlackWhite

Green Blue

NSEW

NESW

噬嗑

3 5

YellowRed Purple

Blue Green

E W

NW

S SW

家人

16 17










DragonAny year that you’re not having a better time than everyone else seems like a bad one. This might not be the best year to get caught up in your own mythology. Your finances are looking decent, but you can normally smelt metal just by breathing. Oh, and a quick word to your parents - more people are born in dragon years than any other, which makes competition for limited opportunities all the more fun, right?

龍Health Scaly, scabrous you might want to take a little more care this year. Mental health over physical is suggested. Tough as you lot are, on the inside you’re just cute little hurtin’ serpents with fragile egos. If someone says something nasty about your tail, don’t waste all that energy incinerating them - help them get a new set of glasses.

Wealth Your sources of stable income are stable at best. This is not a year when you’ll be tipping the scales with your dripping jewels. Winter dragons do better earlier in the year; the others later. Whatever the case, don’t be draggin’ your feet or your hoard will start to melt away.

Love Dragon Lady? Is that you or who you’re looking for? Might be time to reappraise this term. However, you don’t want the scales to fall from your intended’s eyes - he or she might end up thinking you’re a mere wyvern. You only have three months to make your advances, but that should be plenty for you to claw your way into anyone’s heart.

Career With water and fire changing over this year, you’ll want to make sure the various dragon kings keep an eye out for you. Yellow dragons are good at listening to libationers - this might be a good time to breathe deeply into their ears.

Verdict: Hehe, hehe, hehe . . . no game in the field. All those wild birds have flown, ever wonder why, Dragon? Surely it’s because you’re so kind and considerate. Also, see above where it notes ‘duration’, the image that should come to mind is of people listening to you. You think that’s the normal state of affairs, all well and good. Note also that it’s in your interests to have somewhere to go. If you’re not sure of where that may be, then ask those listening to you, they may have some advice.

Water Dragon:23 Jan 2012 - 09 Feb 201327 Jan 1952 - 13 Feb 1953

Metal Dragon:05 Feb 2000 - 23 Jan 200108 Feb 1940 - 26 Jan 1941

Earth Dragon:17 Feb 1988 - 05 Feb 198923 Jan 1928 - 09 Feb 1929

Fire Dragon:31 Jan 1976 - 17 Feb 197703 Feb 1916 - 22 Jan 1917

Wood Dragon:13 Feb 1964 - 01 Feb 196516 Feb 1904 - 03 Feb 1905

heng

hexagram

Persevering

32

Judgement Image LinePersevering: Success. No blame. It furthers one to have somewhere to go.

Thunder and wind: the image of Perseverance. Thus the superior man stands firm and does not change his direction.

Nine in the fourth place means no game in the field.

RabbitLove and work are both well-aspected this year. That doesn’t mean you need to do them together, or that if you do the sum will even be the sum of its parts, let alone greater. The trickster in you needs to modulate those outbreaks, and if you are going to be pulled out of someone’s hat you’ll need all your manners to get in there first.

兔Health Early to bed, early to rise makes a rabbit... well it certainly will stop you going mad as a hatter this year. Communicable diseases and alcohol seem to be colliding in your health chart, might be a good idea to keep them apart, no one will think the less of you for not being the bunny in the headlights. A little precaution and the lettuce patch is yours.

Wealth You can set up as many dai pai dongs as you think the grasslands can absorb. You can’t make money on all of them, but you won’t need to disappear down any creditor-dug rabbit-hole either. Study also seems to lead to wealth this year, but that does not mean studying the habits of bank guards.

Love Cottontails up! You little ball of furry love, it’s no longer a case of hare today, gone tomorrow. The apricot flower star is hanging around your hutch dropping carrots and telling you it’s time to make mochi. Forget those hounding you, it’s time to go running with the hares, so buck the trend and bring that rabbit’s foot into play.

Career Your chart has many good stars - if you’re a model, make the most of this and try to eat lettuce twice a day. The Tai Sui is heading your way next year, so best to get settled into your warren, and remember The Year of the Angry Rabbit was only ever a joke; everyone else has known this for some time, might be timely to put any other hare-brained schemes behind you.

Verdict: The stars above have decided that a hexagram called ‘increase’ should have something to do with rabbits? The only great deed we can see here is the dressing up of a prediction so lacking in specifics that it cannot but come true. No blame? Well, there should be cottontail, because someone is pulling yours.

Metal Rabbit:03 Feb 2011 - 22 Jan 201206 Feb 1951 - 26 Jan 1952

Earth Rabbit:16 Feb 1999 - 04 Feb 200019 Feb 1939 - 07 Feb 1940

Fire Rabbit:29 Jan 1987 - 16 Feb 198802 Feb 1927 - 22 Jan 1928

Wood Rabbit:11 Feb 1975 - 30 Jan 197614 Feb 1915 - 02 Feb 1916

Water Rabbit:25 Jan 1963 - 12 Feb 196429 Jan 1903 - 15 Feb 1904

Yi

hexagram

inCrease

42

Judgement Image LineIncrease. It furthers one to undertake something. It furthers one to cross the great water.

Wind and thunder: the image of Increase. Thus the superior man: if he sees good, he imitates it; if he has faults, he rids himself of them.

Nine at the beginning means it furthers one to accomplish great deeds. Supreme good fortune. No blame.

54 79

Yellow Purple Red

Grey Black

E SW NW

S W

益

5 7

Red WhiteOrange

GreenGrey

W SESW

N NW

恆

18 19










HorseThere are a few folks conspiring to get you off the racetrack, but no need for the long face on that account. If you stay on the track, you’ll need to avoid holes those moles will be digging for you. It’s not a bad year, but you’d better simultaneously hold your reins while making sure that you’re not on your high horse. Confusion mounting while you get that nagging feeling?

馬Health Horses sleep standing up. It’s shaping up to be a tiring time so you’ll want to get good at doing this at work - it’ll keep you balanced. This is not the year of the pack horse, so don’t be carrying others, and put the heels into hock. Eat well and take care not to catch colts running around.

Wealth All horses should have a good return this year, enough for you to pony up for anything unexpected. One exception is gambling: if you put hard-earned money down on the horses, you’ll be shutting that barn door for some time. You shouldn’t bridle at the thought of kneeling before the Tai Sui and doing your dog and pony show.

Love A good year to be the cold-blooded horse in the land of emotions for there’ll be more than enough misunderstandings and not enough horse sense to go around. It is however, a good year to be cantering around the place meeting dark horses - something may come of that, perhaps a desire for a better light switch?

Career You may need to do a little circling of the wagons this year, and it may feel like you’re in a one-horse town. Careful handling of issues will prevent the knackers from hobbling you. No need to be barn sour, but the hay isn’t free and someone needs to keep an eye on all that tack.

Verdict: This is a little superior to your general forecast this year, prancing time is here again. In case this isn’t clear, that tree on the mountain is an anomaly as development is coming. Dignity and Virtue is the name of a suburb of condominiums you’re putting up. The code word is ‘mores’ an anagram of orsem (awesome) - as you were horse!

Wood Horse:31 Jan 2014 - 18 Feb 201503 Feb 1954 - 23 Jan 1955

Water Horse:12 Feb 2002 - 31 Jan 200315 Feb 1942 - 04 Feb 1943

Metal Horse:27 Jan 1990 - 14 Feb 199130 Jan 1930 - 16 Feb 1931

Earth Horse:07 Feb 1978 - 27 Jan 197911 Feb 1918 - 31 Jan 1919

Fire Horse:21 Jan 1966 - 08 Feb 196725 Jan 1906 - 12 Feb 1907

Jian

hexagram

develoPmenT

53

Judgement Image LineDevelopment. The maiden is given in marriage. Good fortune. Perse-verance furthers.

On the mountain, a tree: the image of Development. Thus the superior man abides in dignity and virtue, in order to improve the mores.

Six in the second place means the wild goose gradually draws near the cliff. Eating and drinking in peace and concord. Good fortune.

SnakeWhile the Tai Sui will try to harass you, the stars are otherwise good and congregating in your back garden. Petty people, those snakes in the grass, will be backstabbing, so you’ll need to be the empty boat that steers around them. You’ll find those who delight in you being ever the more so, make the most of it, intertwine and twist the good things together. A little good work will see you gliding smoothly across most obstacles.

蛇Health To make sure you stay in rude health this year, you’re advised to remain at arm’s length from alcohol. If not, you’ll end up on some old-time pharmacy bench as a curio. Your lungs and windpipe may be delicate so when swallowing prey we suggest a touch of snake oil to help get them down.

Wealth Winding your way to the upper echelons should be the goal in the months ahead. Both orthodox and, er, oblique income streams are due to flow smoothly. You were once a burrowing lizard - time to reprise that role because the work you put in this year will come looping back to you.

Love Moulting or not, you’ve the chance to bring the affairs of your sneaky little heart to a fine resting place. Cast out your former incarnation as the viper in the bosom and realise the cute little squamata within. If you make those snake eyes at someone, how are they going to resist? Remember, you’ve no diaphragm so your heart can move to where it wants to be.

Career Civil serpents can kick back and relax, the jade-hall star is appearing overhead. This is a good study year for snakes who can avoid falling off the chair and spending class time winding themselves around other people’s legs. Concentrate on uncoiling your own issues and no venom will come your way.

Verdict: Either it’s good for you to slough (that yellow garment being your old skin on the way out): new skin, new game, new life. Or this is a good year not to buy bleach. Don’t worry about the directions and friends’ advice, the earth’s magnetic poles are changing over again, befriend whomsoever you wish.

Water Snake:10 Feb 2013 - 30 Jan 201414 Feb 1953 - 02 Feb 1954

Metal Snake:24 Jan 2001 - 11 Feb 200227 Jan 1941 - 14 Feb 1942

Earth Snake:06 Feb 1989 - 26 Jan 199010 Feb 1929 - 29 Jan 1930

Fire Snake:18 Feb 1977 - 06 Feb 197823 Jan 1917 - 10 Feb 1918

Wood Snake:02 Feb 1965 - 20 Jan 196604 Feb 1905 - 24 Jan 1906

kun

hexagram

reCePTive

2

Judgement Image LineThe Receptive brings about sublime success, furthering through the per-severance of a mare. If the superior man tries to lead, he goes astray; But if he follows, he finds guidance.

The earth’s condition is receptive devotion. Thus the superior man who has breadth of character carries the outer world.

Six in the fifth place means: a yellow lower garment brings supreme good fortune.

56 78

Grey Blue Black

Red Purple

E SW W

SNW

1 9

Blue WhiteGreen

YellowOrange

E SE

NW

N S

坤漸

20 21

ZODIAC SIGN GUIDE


Lucky numbers


Good Dubious

Good Dubious


You got out from under last year by the scruff of your goatee. But unfortunately, dearest rack of lamb, it’s out of the fireplace and into the fire. Some things are on the up: you’ll find more people with feelings for you, though it’ll be up to you to work out whether schadenfreude is what you want to inspire in people. Keep chewing on the cud, Goat - better years await.

羊Health You’ll be thrilled to discover that the “sick amulet” star is taking up residence with you, we kid you not. This chap casts a pall over your comings and goings - it might be a good time to spend in the feedlot. But if you pay strict attention to safety, there’ll be mutton to worry about. The first half will carry over from last.

Wealth A year with few expectations means one with few let downs. We’re just airing a principle here - you can happily count sheep for all the good it’ll do. Your regular income should continue as is, but if the repo men come for you, they’ll ask you to pay with cash, mere cash, so it needn’t get your goat, or leave you raddled, thistle blow over in no time.

Love Funnily enough, here you do have a beneficent star wandering into your paddock. You know what to do, oh hairy-thighed one: curl back your top lip and expose the teeth . . . well, nice try. Happily that star is going to stay for a while and you shouldn’t crimp your own style. Buck up old boy.

Career Water comes to replace fire, but that doesn’t mean that setting your boss’ desk alight will get you a promotion. That said, getting off your own butt will bring its own rewards so no need to stand sheepishly in the corner or you’ll end up with the possibility of getting culled.

Verdict: We’re not sure if any of this is unclear, but it’s pretty much carte blanche, you’re going to be able to get away with anything you decide to do, no-one is looking. Think early 5th Century BC Athens and the sudden realisation that no-one can stop you. What you do with all that power is up to you.

Wood Goat:19 Feb 2015 - 07 Feb 201624 Jan 1955 - 11 Feb 1956

Water Goat:01 Feb 2003 - 21 Jan 200405 Feb 1943 - 24 Jan 1944

Metal Goat:15 Feb 1991 - 03 Feb 199217 Feb 1931 - 05 Feb 1932

Earth Goat:28 Jan 1979 - 15 Feb 198001 Feb 1919 - 19 Feb 1920

Fire Goat:09 Feb 1967 - 29 Jan 196813 Feb 1907 - 01 Feb 1908

晉Jin

hexagram

Progress

35

Judgement Image LineProgress. The powerful prince is honoured with horses in large num-bers. In a single day he is granted an audience three times.

The sun rises over the earth: the image of Progress. Thus the superior man brightens his bright virtue.

Six in the fifth place means remorse disappears. Take not gain and loss to heart. Undertakings bring good fortune. Everything serves to further.

Orange Yellow Red

Grey Azure

E SE SW

NNE

2 8

Goat

This is Tsai’s year in many ways. The full cycle of 60 years has come and opportunities abound. Finance, work and travel are all well-aspected. Expect the lonely year predicted to be of the gua-ren type as they call it in Chinese: the Taiwanese leader out there on her own - think Caesar from the new Planet of the Apes franchise. House moving is clearly indicated, reflecting her advance into the Presidential Office Building. She is advised to go heavy on the joss to make sure she avoids traffic accidents (with who but toothless, Beijing-accented apparatchiks not obeying traffic rules and throwing monkey wrenches into the works).

Unsurprisingly, Earth Roosters are known for their business acumen. It’s lucky for Lei that he is running the enviable company that he is, as those with such fine feathers tend to feel the need to strut around and garner respect from colleagues. Yet his stars indicate that he’ll make his fortune following the troop through the IT forest. Whether that means listening to his underlings, or aping silverbacks Pony Ma and Robin Li in scampering up the Hurun list, is something for those who monkey with predictions to essay. It’s a time for Earth Roosters to come out of the shadows; so is this the year that Xiaomi overtakes Apple and sets the pace? Or will it witness the company’s data-collection policies become a little more transparent?

Tsai Ing-wen

Lei Jun

Celebrity fortunes

FAMOUS FACES

Earth Rooster Born: 16 Dec 1969 Xiaomi founder

Fire Monkey Born: 31 Aug 1956 President of Taiwan

22 23

Perhaps on account of his Argentine origins, Pope Francis is sometimes mistaken for a Capuchin monk, but this primate is the Bishop of Rome. Nonetheless, capuchin monkeys can be trained for service to humans, so perhaps all is not lost yet. This is to be a year of numerous surprises, so we can surmise that the line upstairs to Ozymandias, the Golden Monkey from the Golden Compass must be catching static. Although Fire Rats have a tendency to make comments on those who have passed (or seem to have) that they later regret, the stars are still auspicious for giving Mugabe his promotion to sainthood, after all, if he’s already won the Confucius Prize what could possibly go awry?

Will everyone’s favourite imaginative and creative actress make the most of her Monster Hunt success and become the break-out household name she deserves to be? Gruff Goats are advised when swimming to take care to stay away from the outlet valves - for Ms Tang those valves are the Chinese media censors. Expect a little sparkle in personal relations for Earth Goats; those interested may begin to plan a disguise as one of the unexpected events for the year.

Pope Francis

Tang Wei

A year of struggle for all Fire Dogs, whether it’s for bragging rights on your local fire hydrant or whether you’re running for president of the US of A, it’ll be time to cock that leg and aim straight. Would it surprise you to hear that these canines have outgoing personalities with a stubborn side? Hello Apprentice! The stars portend a time for wearing the emperor’s clothes - could this lucky monkey’s banana really be peeled and awaiting his chompers, or is he in silk going to get the robe that’ll match his fur? Fire dogs are also warned to watch their spending this year. If Trump is running all the way, we can expect him to be watching the rivers of money flowing out with the tide, before perhaps coming back in with a full-moon high tide . . .

Apparently this is the year of the golden tongue for the Fire Pig. The one caveat here is that one must seek to avoid faux pas. It’s a time to make sure that family don’t make slip-ups, with Bill’s activities resembling a naughty monkey rampaging through the foliage throwing banana skins out behind him, Hillary will need to have a leash on that baboon and his florid mating signs. This year is not well suited to dealing with false and copied goods, those Chinese military copy DVDs of House of Cards will have to be put out with the trash.

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

FAMOUS FACESFAMOUS FACES

Fire Dog Born: 14 Jun 1946US presidential candidate

Fire Pig Born: 26 Oct 1947US presidential candidate

Earth Goat Born: 7 Oct 1979Chinese actress

Fire Rat Born: 17 Dec 1936 Head of the Roman Catholic Church

24 25

PROPERTY OUTLOOK

Location, locationWelcome to the Battle Royale where good

stars fight bad influences and vice-versa. In the South, we have the Three-Killings spreading their joy. Opposed to them are three stars of fortune: Star 1 in the South-East favouring patronage and academic fortune; Star 6 in the South spreading attenuated wealth and general good fortune; and Star 8 in the South-West, the biggie of them all pushing back against those hateful and destructive vapours. In the West, home of our sacred Earth Rooster, is woody Star 4 - quite the cheery chap. So expect clearer skies out at the airport. The West has our bananas rating. Star 9, ahem, future prosperity, is now sitting unassailed in the east. Despite belonging to Brer Rabbit, not being the best of pals with our Rooster, it still looks very promising and gets our second bananas rating. Other coconuts will be dropping from the trees for your amusement, with possible profit in the North and North-West, and the south-east. The South-West and centre have enough afflictions to get the peanuts rating, while the South and North-East - housing the housing wreckers - get nothing but toadstool.

PROPERTY OUTLOOK

Source: Google Maps

HONG KONG OVERALL

These stars bring their general attributes to bear on the nine houses they inhabit. But each residence itself can be divided into the nine houses on a micro-scale, and here follow some of the ramifications for your own living space this year.

The South has the Six White star governing the sector. Normally it brings wealth and good blessings, as well as study-related endeavours. Dark coloured floorings work well with it. The Three Killings are here this year so best to avoid doors in this area, or use them discreetly, renovations to this sector should be avoided - drop in a Laughing Buddha.

Visited this year by the Two Black star, traditionally responsible for illness and accidents. Mitigating these effects can be done with laying

green carpet, or some rugs in the area, remaining quiet there, and even placing some strings of metal coins under those rugs (just remember to get them up next year!)

The star for this corner is the One White; it often presages the patronage of those who can make a difference to your life. Its benign effect on relationships can also carry over to meeting people who will become close to you. If you’d like to get involved with someone then grey is the colour. Green decorations will keep relationships humming.

The Nine Purple star, a bit of a chameleon as it is gearing up to preside over the next cycle that begins around 2024. Thus it also portends good things for the future, if your door faces east then open the door and let the sunshine in, and while you’re doing that put some bonsai in the same area, that’ll amplify the general goodness here.

Less than ideal as that’s where the Five Yellows (Wu Wang) are holding court; their bag of tricks involves unexpected troubles and major illnesses. Mostly you’ll want to focus on mitigation, thus grey furnishings and bronze implements or strings of coins placed underneath will assist. The Suipo, Year Breaker, star is also here so no renovations!

The North is visited this year by the Seven Red, quite a violent star which often brings burglaries, lawsuits, fires and such in its wake. If you think you can repaint your door a coffee-colour, that’d be good. Make sure all of your preventative and secure measures are up-to-date. Everything from locks on windows to fire-fighting equipment.

Three Emerald is the inauspicious star in this corner this year. Think of it as a cantankerous elderly relative. You’re hardly going to throw them out but they do make life unnecessarily difficult. What to do? Ameliorate those effects by placing pink items there (centres for criminals are decorated with this colour as it calms everything down).

This year the West has the Four Green star, which is good for romance and self-improvement. How to make the most of this? Have some sort of water feature there, fresh flowers in a dark-coloured vase, or even just keep a glass of water in the area - that’ll attract the right vibrations. No need to go overboard or you might get a little too much romance.

Finally, the South-West has the Eight White star this year. This is mostly good for finance and your career path. It’s an especially potent star if treated well so adorn the area with red, red, red. Remember the Taisui is in here as well - so this is where the Guan Zhong image should be placed. No large amounts of metal, and keep the air flowing.

SOUTH-EAST EAST NORTH-EAST

CENTRE

SOUTH-WESTNORTH NORTH-WEST WEST SOUTH

TAI SUI (SW3) See page 8

Great: Bananas

Good: Coconuts

Not so bad: Peanuts

Avoid: Toadstool

Home element: METAL Annual star: WOOD 3Zodiac signs:

Comments: Possible misunderstandings here, but otherwise unafflicted – read the fine print

Home element: METAL Annual star: WOOD 4Zodiac signs:

Comments: This bright star for the airport governs travel, you can see the horizon

DOG NW1

ROOSTER W2

PIG NW3

NORTH-WEST

WEST

SOUTH-WEST

NORTH-EAST

CENTRE

SOUTH

NORTH

SOUTH-EAST

EAST

Home element: FIRE Annual star: METAL 6Zodiac signs:

Comments: Three Killings and a weak Heavenly Luck star, avoid

Home element: WATER Annual star: METAL 7Zodiac signs:

Comments: Take out insurance, you have a star designed to test this, but otherwise decent

Home element: WOOD Annual star: WATER 1Zodiac signs:

Comments: Star of good reputation, not that any of us are bothered by face

Home element: WOOD Annual star: FIRE 9Zodiac signs:

Comments: Happy rabbit, happy future and you can wave to the rooster

Home element: EARTH Annual star: EARTH 8Zodiac signs:

Comments: Tai Sui and a hint of the Three Killings, not a good year for the seafront islands


Comments: Year Breaker and the Five Yellow, if you catch typhoid somewhere else it will seem like fun


Comments: Disease, sickness and general deflation, only if you’re in the market for a medical centre

GOAT SW1

OXNE1

DRAGON SE1

HORSE S2

RAT N2

RABBIT E2

MONKEY SW3

TIGERNE3

Each and every one of you

SNAKE SE3

(S1-S3) See page 8THREE KILLINGS

FEBRUARY二月

MARCH三月

APRIL四月

MAY五月

JUNE六月

JULY七月

AUGUST八月

SEPTEMBER九月

OCTOBER十月

NOVEMBER十一月

DECEMBER十二月

JANUARY一月

2626

Editor: Rebecca TaylorDesign/Art: Jennifer Luk; Lizzie Lau; Jon BerkeleyTranslation: Elyse Li, Jack Liu, Lifu Luan, Joanne Wu, An ShilianThanks to: Joanne Wong, Maria Cascales, Liz Patterson

编辑: 泰天恩

艺术设计: 陆霭茵、刘莉斯、乔恩•伯克利

翻译: 李韵、刘杰、栾力夫、吴琼、安士莲

鸣谢: 黃穎芝、簡善妮、丽姿•柏特森

Sorcerer: Dr James GreenbaumSorcerer’s apprentice: Craig CorkWicked Witch of the East: Cherry MaWand bearer: Marco Yau

占卜师: 詹姆斯 (博士)

占卜师徒弟: 黄光程

东方女巫: 马卓蓝

执杖官: 丘文孚

+10

+8

+6

+4

+2

0

-2

-4

The Earth Rooster Index meets the Fire Monkey. Cage fight - only one will win! But who says the market needs to be a zero-sum game? This is a year to take stock of

where you are and rise - and the ape that helps our beloved Hang Seng Index is here. This is a year of recovery, well at least at first, as our beloved Rooster crawls out of the Betty Ford clinic, stops scratching in the dirt, and looks to take flight, or at least get back onto the perch and cackle.

With the baton passed to the primates, we expect to see some fast movement in the first few months of the year, coming close to lunchtime (mid-year), we expect our monkey to stop for a bite, dropping out of the canopy for a chance to pick up the fruit that may have slipped through his furry paws. The second half is perhaps not as stellar as those first few months, but progress comes. Our China Forum in May will no doubt offer actionable ideas on how to ride returns.

We’re expecting to see the rise of metals and water-related industries, which is promising for gaming, transport, financials, autos and machinery. Not to the top just yet, but the long-reputed paradigm shift is finally here, and gibbon half a chance, it’ll make itself felt. It’s a year for slow, considered expansion - the sort of thing your mother and father tell you are good for you. If you’re leaving the hutch or the troop this year, take some advice from your elders on the way out.

28 MAR Monday3月28日周一

14 MAR Monday3月14日周一

23 MAR Wednesday3月23日周三

26 FEB Friday2月26日周五

6 JAN Friday1月6日周五

9 SEP Friday9月9日周五

14 OCT Friday10月14日周五

27 OCT Thursday10月27日周四

22 NOV Tuesday11月22日周二

26 JUL Tuesday7月26日周二

14 JUL Thursday7月14日周四

猴来居上话西游

CLSA FENG SHUI INDEX 2016 年中信里昂风水指数

Monkey’s journey to the West

7 MAY Saturday5月7日周六

18 JUN Saturday6月18日周六

14 AUG Sunday8月14日周日

24 AUG Wednesday8月24日周三

21 JUN Tuesday6月21日周二

24 JUN Friday6月24日周五

10 JAN Tueday1月10日周二

12 DEC Monday12月12日周一

当土鸡遇上火猴，困作笼中斗，将会是谁占据上风？但话说回来，谁说这必须是

非黑即白、非此即彼的选择；正如谁又说市场就必须是一场零和游戏？跳出

固化的是非观，这将是自我审视，评估现状，伺机崛起的一年：我们心心念念的恒指，

迎来了这只神通广大的灵猴。复苏将是这一年的主旋律。好吧，至少是年初的主旋

律。每年不变的主角恒指土鸡踉跄走出和木羊的斗法，止住了向下扒土的趋势，眼瞅

目前打满鸡血的状态，即使不会马上羽化登仙，亦有飞上枝头引吭高歌的势头。

接力棒交到聪明机智的猴子手上，我们预计开年数月将迎来一轮快速拉升。至日

当正午(年中)，猴子或将稍作小憩，享受几根香蕉；甚至尝试走出金箍棒画的保

护圈，以摘取更美味的果子。不料爪下一滑，栽了个痛快跟头。展望下半年，情况

似乎失去了年初令人眼前一亮、神气活现的气势，但仍可圈可点。走过惊心动魄

的骤起骤落，欲问路在何方，想必已锁定我们5月的中国投资论坛，为万里西行寻

觅点津。

根据我们推算，金和水相关行业有望发力，榜上有名的包括博彩、交通运输、金融、

汽车和机械。而吊足了各方胃口的颠覆性契机在千呼万唤下终于出现，尽管一开头，

会显得有点不温不火，但请相信只要抓住一丁点机会，其存在感将大幅刷新。今年适

宜缓慢、掌握分寸的的扩张，没错，就是父母口中那一套颠扑不灭的说辞。如果你觉

得自己翅膀硬了，是时候离巢而去，请勿无视家中老人的金玉良言：那可是喝多少鸡

汤都无法提炼出的朴素真理。

It’s 12 years since you’ve been here, Monkey. Despite the horrid start, there’s a party in Heaven, you get an invitation. Things are looking up.

WOOD TIGER

木虎

You burst into Heaven and find the peaches of immortality. But you see the doorkeepers checking invitations. Eat while the going is good.

WOOD RABBIT

木兔

The doormen are coming your way, don’t lose your grip but now is a good time to store all those goodies you’ve helped yourself to.

EARTh DRAGON

土龙

The doormen have cornered you and the outlook is uncertain, stash those bananas away. The CLSA China Forum will position you well.

FIRE SNAkE

火蛇

You’re cornered and they’ve slipped a restraint on your head and are keen to drag you to the zoo. It’s not looking good - play dead.

FIRE hORSE

火马

They think you’re secured but the restraints loosen - enough time to get back to the table and help yourself to the offerings.

EARTh ShEEP

土羊

They’re back, you’re about to be sedated, no more fruit for you, the Queen Mother of the West has you under her control.

METAL MONkEY

金猴

Happily you wake to find that while you cannot move, you’re an arm’s reach from the feast. Bide the month and your strength will return.

METAL ROOSTER

金鸡

Someone bumps the other end of the table and the nuts are now in reach, you can eat them lying down at leisure, help yourself.

EARTh DOG

土狗

If you push slightly against the wall you’ll find the gurney slides along the side of the table, once again anything in reach is yours.

WATER PIG

水猪

The gurney slides down a slope; no matter, you’ve still got plenty of delights on those sheets and the eating is good.

WATER RAT

水鼠

You’re still rolling away from heaven. You won’t get back in now, and stores are low, but that was quite a party.

EARTh COW

土牛

04 FEB 04 MAR2月4日 3月4日

05 MAR 03 APR3月5日 4月3日

04 APR 04 MAY4月4日 5月4日

05 MAY 04 JUN5月5日 6月4日

05 JUN 06 JUL6月5日 7月6日

07 JUL 06 AUG7月7日 8月6日

07 AUG 06 SEP8月7日 9月6日

07 SEP 07 OCT9月7日 10月7日

08 OCT 06 NOV10月8日 11月6日

07 NOV 06 DEC11月7日 12月6日

07 DEC 04 JAN12月7日 1月4日

05 JAN 02 FEB1月5日 2月2日

上次一别，转眼又

是12年了，猴子。尽

管开局是个悲剧，

但天庭有派对，邀

请函刚送达。前方

一片柳暗花明。

脚踩筋斗云翻上天

宫，并寻路至蟠桃

园。但远远瞅见门

口天兵正在查票。

趁时光正好，多往

口里塞几颗桃子吧。

天兵天将正向你逼

近，勿自乱阵脚。俗

话说，高筑墙，广积

粮。是时候小心收

好到手的果子了。

被一众天兵逼进了

死胡同，前景未卜。

把袋中的果子藏在

安全之地吧。我们

的中国投资论坛将

为你献上锦囊妙计。

四面楚歌，头上还

被套了金箍。众人

意图将你拖到动

物园，情况不妙，

装死吧。

他们自以为你已是

囊中物，但金箍一

时松脱，这下有了

足够时间回到藏宝

地，饱餐一顿。

天兵天将折返，你

将被稳稳镇住，暂

时只能和蟠桃说拜

拜。西王母已将你

控制于鼓掌之中。

你醒来发现寸步难

移，但幸运的是蟠

桃宴离你仅一臂之

遥。等待时机，苦尽

自有甘来。

有人撞了一下餐桌

那头，果子唾手可

得，你可以舒服地

躺着尽情享用了。

轻推一下墙壁，你

发现自己被五花大

绑在上的轮椅会

沿餐桌滑动，原来

想要的，就在触手

可及处！

餐车滑下斜坡，但

没关系，你手边已

积攒不少美食，而

且已饱餐一顿。

继续圆润地滚离天

宫。一时半会回不

去，且存货不多，

但蟠桃宴足够令人

回味无穷。

Bad Monkey 杀鸡儆猴之日

Clever Monkey 灵猴献瑞之日

27 JUL Wednesday7月27日周三