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H o u s i n g M a r k e t I n f o r m a t i o n
HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
Date Released:
C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n
Table of Contents
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Canada Edition
Fourth Quarter 2013
Housing starts: Housing startshave remained relatively stable since
March 2013 and are expected tocontinue this trend until mid-2014.In the latter half of 2014, housingstarts are forecast to moderate.
Total housing starts are expectedto decline to 185,000 units in 2013and then remain mostly unchanged,reaching 184,700 units in 2014.Single housing starts should accountfor a growing share of total startsthrough 2014.
Resales: Existing home sales areexpected to stay relatively unchangedin 2013 and then rise in the first half of2014 before moderating in the secondhalf of 2014. On an annual basis, sales
through the Multiple Listing Service(MLS)2 are expected to reach 456,700units in 2013, before seeing an increaseto 468,200 units in 2014.
Resale prices: The sales-to-newlistings ratio is expected to remain inor near balanced market conditionsover the forecast horizon. Nevertheless,the average MLSprice is anticipatedto grow 4.0 per cent in 2013, reflectingin part, increased sales in higher-pricedmarkets. In 2014, house prices areexpected to grow in line with inflationat 1.9 per cent. The average MLSpriceis forecast to rise to $378,000 in 2013and then to $385,200 in 2014.
Provincial spotlight: Housing startsare expected to rebalance regionally,with Western Canada gaining a largershare of new home constructionover the forecast horizon, due to asupportive economic environment.On the existing home market, Alberta
will continue to lead the country,experiencing overall resale activityand house price growth above thenational average.
2 National Outlook
6 Trends at a Glance
7 British Columbia
8 Alberta
9 Saskatchewan
10 Manitoba
11 Ontario
12 Quebec
13 New Brunswick
14 Nova Scotia
15 Prince Edward Island
16 Newfoundland and Labrador
17 Forecast Tables
2013: 185,000
2014: 184,700
2013: 456,700
2014: 468,200
Housing Starts:
Resales:
1 The outlook is subject to uncertainty. Although point forecasts are presented in this publication, CMHCalso presents forecast ranges and risks where appropriate. The forecasts included in this document reflectinformation available as of October 16, 2013.
2 Multiple Listing Service(MLS) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Canadian Housing Market: Housing startsto remain stable and resales to increasemodestly in 2014
Overview1
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Detailed National
Housing Outlook
Total housing startsrebalancing toward largershares of single starts in2013 and 2014
After declining in the first quarter of2013, total housing starts in Canada
exhibited a stable quarterly pathin the two last quarters and areexpected to show a similar trend forthe remainder of 2013. The trend3
in total housing starts edged up inSeptember while remaining closeto the range of roughly 182,000 to
188,000 units that was observedbetween March and August of 2013.This is in line with CMHCs previousforecasts and reflects the lag effect
between the new home market andthe existing home market, as salesthrough the MLShave trended highersince February 2013. As a result, total
annual housing starts are expectedto reach 185,000 units in 2013, downfrom 214,827 in 2012.
As the sources of economic growthin Canada shift from residentialinvestment and consumer spending
to exports and business investment,economic conditions are expectedto improve.
Employment and economic growthare expected to gain furthermomentum in 2014, but could be
offset by the impact of a potentialincrease in mortgage rates. Overall,
housing starts are expected to remainmostly stable at 184,700 units in 2014,
with most of the strength in the firsthalf of the year.
Economic uncertainty is reflected bya forecast range, varying from 179,300to 190,600 units for 2013 and from
163,700 to 205,700 units for 2014.
Overall, CMHC expects housing starts
to somewhat rebalance regionally andacross unit types by the end of theforecast horizon. This is expected tomaterialize in a shift toward a larger
share of total housing starts beingenumerated in the Western provinces,as opposed to Central Canada.Similarly, single housing starts
should account for a growingshare through 2014.
Single-detached startsrelatively more stable thanmulti-family starts
Since the late 1990s, single housingstarts as a share of total housingstarts have continuously declined, as
affordability of condominiums boostedmulti-family housing starts. While thistrend is expected to continue overthe longer term, single housing starts
will regain some of their share oftotal housing starts over the forecasthorizon, but only because multi-family
housing starts will be moderatingrelative to elevated levels in 2011and 2012.
About 77,200 single housing startsare expected to be registered in 2013,down 7.8 per cent from 83,657 in2012. This moderation is mostly driven
by slightly weaker employment andeconomic growth early in the year.
As these same factors improve, singlehousing starts are expected to exhibit
a stable growth path in 2014. Buildersare expected to closely match demandwhich will keep inventories of singleunits in line with historical averages.
The ratio of newly completed andunabsorbed single-detached housingunits per 10,000 population stood at2.04 units in the second quarter of
2013, which was below the historicalaverage of 2.14 units and 2.05 for thefirst quarter of 2013.
The single starts forecast for nextyear is 79,000 units. Single startsare expected to range between
74,800 and 79,600 units for 2013
and between 69,800 and 88,200units for 2014.
Multi-family starts expectedto decline in 2013 and stabilizein 2014
People aged between 25 and 34represent the bulk of the first-time
home buyer pool in the country.Typically, first-time home buyers aremore likely to enter homeownership
through the less expensive multi-familyhousing segment, especially in largercentres. By the end of the forecasthorizon and into 2015, all regions but
Quebec will see the growth rate oftheir population aged 25-34 declineaccording to Statistics Canadasprojections4. By the end of the current
decade, the growth rate of populationaged 25-34 will be negative or veryclose to zero in most regions and willbring downward pressure on demand
for multi-family housing.
3 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variationand multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment makes it possible to highlight the fundamental trends ofa series. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months.This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels. Multi-family starts consist of semi-detached,row, and apartment units.
4 Demographic forecasts are based on Statistics Canadas medium-growth population projection. Statistics Canada. Table 052-0005 Projected population, by projectionscenario, sex and age group as of July 1, Canada, provinces and territories, annual.
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Multi-family starts are expected todecline to 107,800 units in 2013, down
17.8 per cent from 131,170 in 2012,based on rising inventories earlier thisyear and increased competition froma well-supplied resale market for
condominium apartments5. Multi-familystarts have been moderating sinceNovember 2012. This also reflects the
softening in economic fundamentalslate in 2012 and in the first half of2013, as well as the expectation thatbuilders attempt to keep inventory
levels in check, despite the currentnumber of units under construction.The ratio of newly completed andunabsorbed multi-family housing
units per 10,000 population stood at
3.05 units in the second quarter of2013, which was above the historical
average of 2.43 units but down fromthe ratio of 3.16 units for the firstquarter of 2013.
Multi-family starts are forecast toremain relatively stable at 105,700 unitsin 2014, as demand strengthens along
with improving economic conditionsand inventories of completed andunabsorbed units are drawn lower.
Multi-family starts are expected torange between 104,500 and 111,100units in 2013 and between 93,900 and
117,500 units in 2014.
MLSsales are expected toremain stable in 2013 andincrease in 2014
Existing home sales are expected tostay relatively unchanged in 2013 andthen rise along with improving
economic conditions in the first half of2014, before moderating in the secondhalf of the year with the anticipated
rise in mortgage rates. Moreover, therise in mortgage rates that occurred inMay, June and August, 2013, motivatedhome buyers to advance their pur-chases and lock in pre-qualified mort-gage rates. This forward buying willcontinue into 2014. Following a level of454,005 sales in 2012, CMHCs pointforecasts are 456,700 MLSsales for2013 and 468,200 for 2014. MLSsalesare expected to be between 439,400and 474,000 units in 2013 and between438,300 and 498,100 unitsin 2014.
Balanced market conditionsexpected to prevail overforecast horizon
In September, sales grew at0.8 per cent, while new listingsdecreased by 1.4 per cent on amonth-to-month basis. Sales growthoutpaced new listings for a sixthconsecutive month in September.As a result, the sales-to-new listingsratio trended higher over the sameperiod. In September, the ratio stoodat 56.1 per cent, up from 54.8 percent in August, thus moving slightlyabove the 55.0-per-cent threshold6between a balanced and a sellersmarket. Canadas existing homemarket had been balanced since2010 and is expected to remainso over the forecast horizon.
Although the average MLShouseprice will grow slightly above the rateof inflation in 2013, this growth ratewill still be half of the 10-year average,reflecting upward pressure on house
prices in the Prairies. Meanwhile, thebiggest regional housing market inthe country, Ontario, will experiencehouse price growth slightly lowerthan the national average, but not
low enough to be a drag and offsetupward pressure in the westernmarkets. In 2014, house prices areexpected to grow in line with inflationCMHCs point forecasts for theaverage MLSprice are $378,000in 2013 and $385,200 in 2014,representing increases of 4.0 per centand 1.9 per cent, respectively.
The average MLSprice is forecast tobe between $372,300 and $383,700in 2013 and between $374,100 and$396,300 in 2014.
Provincial summary
All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013, except for Alberta.
The lower housing starts reflectexpectations that employment growthin the first half of 2013 will not likelysustain the same level of housingstarts as in 2012.
With the exception of Saskatchewan,housing starts are moderating less inthe Western provinces than in CentraCanada. In 2014, housing starts arealso expected to grow stronger inthe Western provinces than thenational average.
Stronger economic and demographicfundamentals in 2014 will helpsupport a modest rebound in housingstarts in British Columbia, Alberta,Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, andNewfoundland and Labrador, withOntario and Quebec showing littlechange. However, New Brunswick,Prince Edward Island and Manitobawill again see lower housing starts
in 2014.
Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSsales in 2013,although Alberta and British Columbiaare forecast to experience gains.
5 Multi-family starts consist of semi-detached, row and apartment units.
6 Taking the Canadian MLSmarket as a whole, a sales-to-new-listings ratio below 40 per cent has historically accompanied prices that are rising at a rate that is lessthan inflation, a situation known as a buyers market. A sales-to-new-listings ratio above 55 per cent is associated with a sellers market. In a sellers market, homeprices generally rise more rapidly than overall inflation. When the sales-to-new-listings ratio is between these thresholds, the market is said to be balanced.
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British Columbia is recovering froma decline in sales activity in 2012,while Alberta will see sales activitygrow moderately after posting strongsales growth in 2012. In 2014, MLSsales are expected to increase in mostregions, except Prince Edward Islandand New Brunswick.
In 2013, it is expected that growthin average MLShome prices will beslightly above the rate of inflation inall provinces except for Nova Scotiaand New Brunswick, which willexperience average price declinesdue to large inventories of availablehomes for sale. Average MLShomeprices are expected to be generally inline with the outlook for inflation in
2014, except in the Prairies, which willsee price growth above the nationalaverage as a result of strong economicfundamentals and high net migration(see pages 7 to 16 for the detailedprovincial outlooks).
Trends ImpactingHousing7
Gross Domestic Product
growth will remain supportive
In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadianeconomic forecasters, growth ingross domestic product (GDP) isforecast at 1.7 per cent in 2013,before strengthening to 2.3 per centin 2014. This compares to a GDPgrowth estimate of 1.7 per centin 2012.
The forecast for Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 has been reviseddownward slightly from CMHCs
third quarter Housing MarketOutlook. Canadas economy isexpected to be supported by ashift in demand toward exportsand business investment. Morespecifically, business fixed investmentis expected to strengthen as therecovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more firmly entrenched,providing greater confidence aboutprospects for global demand. TheCanadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the samepace as in 2012 and will, therefore,remain supportive of the housingmarket. In 2014, GDP growth willfurther lend support to housingmarket activity, offsetting the impact
of expected mortgage rate increasesin the second half of 2014.
Employment to staysupportive
Employment increased by1.2 per cent in 2012. Based onthe consensus among prominentCanadian forecasters, CMHCexpects that employment willgrow by 1.4 per cent in 2013 andin 2014. Year-to-date, the averagemonthly employment gain wasroughly 12,700 jobs, markedlylower than the monthly averagegain of 24,600 jobs registeredover the first nine months of2012. Despite having been slowto date this year, employmentgrowth is anticipated to improvein the last quarter of the year and,therefore, to sustain moderateincreases in household income
and household formation over theforecast horizon. This will, in turn,support the housing market.
Net migration willremain strong
Canadas strong economicperformance, relative to its peers, isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel of immigrants (net international
migration). Total net migration isforecast to reach 269,500 people in2013, up from an estimated 265,599in 2012, the highest level in recenthistory and well above the 10-yearaverage of about 238,500 people.Net migration is expected to declineto 260,650 in 2014.
High levels of net migration,by historical standards, will helpsupport Canadas housing sector.New migrants typically enter therental market before moving tohomeownership. Migration is expectedto be supportive of demand formulti-family housing, more specifically,purpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units, over theprojection horizon. The high levelsof net migration in the last few yearswill continue to support multi-familyhousing over the forecast horizon,particularly from the relatively highernumbers of migrants to Canadasince 2008.
Mortgage rates to potentiallysee modest and gradualincreases but will remainlow by historical standards
Following the June meeting of theFederal Open Market Committee(FOMC) of the U.S. Federal ReserveBoard, interest rates rose modestlyand then remained steady in both the
U.S. and Canada. According to theFederal Reserve Bank of New York,this reflected a change in the riskassessment of investors and nota change in the expected future pathof interest rates.8
7 CMHC uses publicly available information and the consensus among major Canadian forecasters regarding economic assumptions.
8 Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting. Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013). Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, andEmanuel Moench (http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/preparing-for-takeoff-professional-forecasters-and-the-june-2013-fomc-meeting.html)
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Trends at a Glance
Key factors and their effects on housing starts
Mortgage rates Mortgage rates will remain low by historical standards and supportive of housing demand.
Employment The labour market has gotten off to a slower-than-expected start in 2013, with employmentgrowing in the first six months at a little over half the rate in 2011 and 2012. Nevertheless,employment is expected to improve during the course of the year and is forecast to grow1.4 per cent in both 2013 and 2014, which will support Canadas housing sector.
Income Growth in incomes is expected to continue, albeit at a moderate pace, on account of modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets. As a result, income growth will remainsupportive of housing demand over the forecast horizon.
Net migration Canadas economy is expected to continue to perform well, relative to its peer countries.Canada should, therefore, continue to attract a high level of immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the forecast horizon, which will support housing demand over the forecast
horizon.
Population10 By the end of the forecast horizon and into 2015, all regions but Quebec will see the growthrate of their population aged 25-34 decline according to Statistics Canadas projections. By theend of the current decade, the growth rate of population aged 25-34 will be negative or veryclose to zero in most regions and will bring downward pressure on demand for multi-familyhousing. Furthermore, a steady decline in Canadas natural birth rate should lessen the demandfor additional housing stock beyond the forecast horizon. Population aging is also likely to impactthe type and tenure of housing in demand.
Resale market Resale market conditions for 2013 and 2014 are expected to be near balanced marketconditions in most local markets. Nevertheless, some price momentum will see the average
MLS
price grow above inflation in 2013 and in line with inflation in 2014.Vacancy rates11 The average vacancy rate of purpose-built rental apartments across Canadas metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly, to 2.5 per cent, in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014.Lower vacancy rates for purpose-built rental apartments over the forecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction, particularly in 2014, through the expansionof the rental condominium market.
Stock ofnew andunabsorbedunits
The stock of unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter of 2013,indicating continued strength in demand for newly completed homes. In addition, the ratio of thestock of unabsorbed new units to population, a simple gauge to assess potential overbuilding, isclose to the historical average. Nevertheless, should the inventory increase inordinately, buildersmay delay or reduce the size of some housing projects. This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation in housing starts.
10 Demographic forecasts are based on Statistics Canadas medium-growth population projection.
11 Rental vacancy rates are for purpose-built rental apartments, and do not cover condominium units that are offered up for rent by owners on the secondaryrental market.
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British Columbia
Overview
British Columbias economy isforecast to expand 2.5 per cent in2014, slightly ahead of the nationalaverage, and an increase compared
to 2013. Modest growth in consumerspending and business investmentare expected to contribute to
economic growth.
British Columbias labour marketconditions are forecast to improve
in 2014. Employment is expectedto increase 1.0 per cent next year,following almost no growth in 2013.
This years shift to higher levels offull-time employment will also carryover into 2014. An increase in full-timeemployment will support wage growth
and homeownership demand.
Household formation from a growingpopulation as well as a forecast
increase in the first-time homebuyer population is expected toadd to housing demand. Population
projections by age group point to
an expanding number of people inthe 25 to 44 year age range, whichhas traditionally contributed to
first-time home buyer demand.12Migration from other countries,partly offset by people moving to
other provinces, is expected to add41,300 people in 2014, up from apredicted 33,000-person gain in2013. Migration-fuelled population
growth, combined with the residentpopulation, could add 31,000
households in 2014.13
In Detail
Single Starts: Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9,200 units
in 2014 from a projected 8,400 unitsin 2013. Improving employment andeconomic growth will support anincrease in single-detached home
construction next year. Single-detached starts, which accountedfor 40 per cent of starts during the
last ten years, will make up just overone-third of housing starts in BritishColumbia next year, as the focus ofnew home construction has shifted
to more dense housing types.
Multiple Starts: Multi-family startsare forecast to remain relatively
stable at 18,700 units in 2014, asdemand strengthens along withimproving economic conditions and
inventories of new completed and
unabsorbed units are drawn lower.Rising inventories earlier this yearand increased competition from
a well-supplied resale market forcondominium apartments are
expected to hold multiple-family starts
to 18,400 units in 2013, compared to19,132 units in 2012.
Resales: MLSsales are forecast toincrease to 76,800 in 2014, up from
an expected 71,600 sales in 2013.Demand will be broad-based, fuelledby rising employment, ample supplyand stable prices.
Prices: Expect rising new listings inline with stronger existing home
sales to keep price growth in checkin 2014, as resale market conditionsremain balanced. The average MLSprice is forecast at $531,300 in 2013,
compared to a projected $535,000in 2014.
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 26,800 for 2013 and 27,900 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 26,100-27,500 units for 2013
and24,900-30,900 for 2014.
Figure 1
12 B.C. Stats population projections show annual growth of the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 17,100 persons, in 2013 and 2014. Source: P.E.O.P.L.E2013, CMHC calculations.
13 Source: BC Stats household projections, CMHC calculation.
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Alberta
Overview
Alberta is expected to be amongCanadas economic growth leaders.
Real GDP is projected to increaseby 2.1 per cent in 2013 and 3.1 per
cent in 2014. Higher oil prices and anarrowing differential between theprice of West Texas Intermediateand Western Canadian Select are
supportive of the energy industry.Exports are projected to rise, as isinvestment, driven primarily by energy.
At the same time, expendituresrelated to flood remediation inSouthern Alberta will continue to
provide a boost to the economy.Consumer spending will continueto increase as well, supported bypopulation growth and a labour
market generating rising wages.
Albertas growing economy isexpected to generate employment
growth of 2.8 per cent in 2013 and2.3 per cent in 2014. This will keepthe unemployment rate relatively lowin Alberta at 4.6 per cent in 2013
and 4.5 per cent in 2014. Albertasexpanding economy and labourmarket opportunities will continue
to be attractive to migrants.
Net migration to Alberta will remainat an elevated level. While economic
growth outside of Alberta is expectedto improve, it is not expected toslow the annual flow of migrants to
Alberta until 2014, as this provinceis still expected to lead the country
in terms of economic growth. Netmigration reached 86,939 in 2012 and
is projected at 95,600 in 2013 and68,100 in 2014.
In Detail
Single Starts: Single-detached starts
are projected to reach 18,300 units in2013 and rise to 19,100 units in 2014.In markets such as Calgary, which areexperiencing tighter resale market
conditions, expect more buyers tolook to the new home market tosatisfy their housing needs. In both2013 and 2014, single-detached
starts are expected to rise in most ofAlbertas seven largest urban centres.
Multiple Starts: Multi-family startsare projected to reach 15,900 unitsin 2013 and remain relatively stableat 15,800 units in 2014. In 2014,
Edmontons multi-family productionwill pull back after several yearsof elevated production due toheightened supply levels. Meanwhile,
after declining in 2013, Calgarys
multi-family starts will risesubstantially in 2014. The shift in
multi-family production betweenEdmonton and Calgary will helpkeep the provincial total relativelyunchanged in 2014.
Resales: In the resale market, MLSsales are projected to reach 65,000in 2013 and then rise to 66,800 in
2014. Albertas elevated level of netmigration will help support housingdemand through 2014. In addition
to new household formation,employment and wage growthwill also support a higher levelof resale transactions.
Prices: The average MLS
pricein Alberta is projected to reach$379,200 in 2013 and rise to
$387,400 in 2014. The sales-to-newlistings ratio for Alberta has beentrending higher in 2013, indicative
of stronger demand relative to supply.As a result, some locations areexhibiting sellers market conditions.New listings are expected to increase
in 2014 and will moderate the paceof price growth next year.
Alberta Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
2025
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
Figure 2
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 34,200 for 2013 and 34,900 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 33,400-35,000 units for 2013
and31,200-38,600 for 2014.
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Saskatchewan
Overview
Saskatchewans economy will continueto grow at a faster pace than the
national average, as real GDP isprojected to increase by 2.1 per cent
in 2013, and by 2.8 per cent in 2014.Saskatchewans commodity-basedeconomy is expected to experiencestronger growth in 2014, as exports
increase with an improving globaleconomic outlook. On the other hand,an emerging risk is the dissolution
of a European potash marketingpartnership, which has put downwardpressure on international potash
prices, an important commodity forSaskatchewan. Domestically, consumerspending will continue to supporteconomic growth.
Saskatchewans economy isprojected to generate employmentgrowth of 3.3 per cent in 2013 and
1.7 per cent in 2014. Labour marketconditions in Saskatchewan areexpected to remain tight, holdingback employment growth and keeping
the unemployment rate averaging4.1 per cent in 2013, and 4.3 percent in 2014, representing the lowest
provincial unemployment rates acrossCanada. Some parts of Saskatchewanare experiencing unemploymentrates of below 3 per cent and will
need migrants to address locallabour needs.
The record level of net migrationof 15,974 in 2012 will be difficult to
sustain. Nonetheless, net migration toSaskatchewan is expected to remain
elevated at 14,500 people in 2013, and12,500 in 2014. The primary inflowof migrants to Saskatchewan willcome from outside of Canada, though
additions from other provinces arealso expected. While Saskatchewan
is expected to experience someinterprovincial losses to Alberta, it willmake up for these losses with gainsfrom other provinces.
In Detail
Single Starts: After peaking at over
5,000 units last year, single-detachedstarts are forecast to moderate to4,200 units in 2013 as elevated supply
levels prevent a rise in constructionthis year. Despite the moderation,single-detached starts will remainabove the 10-year average of
approximately 3,400 units, supportedby strong employment growth andrising wages. In 2014, 4,200 units areexpected to be started.
Multiple Starts: After a strong gain in2012, multi-family starts are forecast
to decline to 4,400 units in 2013,
due to elevated supply levels. Withabsorptions lagging completions thisyear, the inventory of complete and
unabsorbed units is rising and willfurther slow the initiation of newmulti-family projects to 3,800 units
in 2014.
Resales: MLSsales in Saskatchewanare expected to moderate to 13,400units in 2013, due to moderating netmigration, competition from the new
home market, and higher monthlycarrying costs. In 2014, MLSsalesare forecast to increase modestly to
13,600 units, buoyed by job growthand rising wages.
Prices: Aided by price composition, the
average MLS
price in Saskatchewan isforecast to rise to $286,500 in 2013,from $275,490 in 2012. Balanced
market conditions over the forecastperiod will ensure positive pricegrowth. However, higher active listingsrelative to sales will move the average
price to $293,000 in 2014.
Saskatchewan Starts (000s)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 8,600 for 2013 and 8,000 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 8,400-8,800 units for 2013
and 7,100-8,900 for 2014.
Figure 3
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Manitoba
Overview
Economic growth in Manitoba willcontinue, with real GDP projected
to increase by 1.9 per cent in 2013,and 2.0 per cent in 2014. An increase
in consumer spending, supportedby an expanding population, higheremployment, and wage growth,will help Manitobas economy to
expand through 2014. An increasein Manitobas exports will result in astronger economic expansion next
year, thanks to higher demand from afaster growing U.S. economy.
Labour market conditions inManitoba are expected to generateemployment growth of 0.9 per centin 2013 and 1.0 per cent in 2014.
The unemployment rate in Manitobahas ranged from 4.9 per cent to5.8 so far this year and will average5.4 per cent in 2013. In 2014,
employment growth will almostkeep pace with labour force gains,moving the annual unemploymentrate to 5.6 per cent.
Net migration to Manitoba isprojected at 8,600 people in 2013,
before moderating slightly to 8,500in 2014. Manitobas population, newhousehold formation, and housingdemand will continue to be supported
by the net inflow of migrants.International migration will continueto be a key driver of population
growth, thanks, in part, to theProvincial Nominee Program. On the
other hand, interprovincial outflowswill continue to temper Manitobas
population growth.
In Detail
Single Starts: Manitobas single-detached housing starts are projected
to moderate to 3,900 units in 2013,before increasing slightly to 4,000units in 2014. Modest employmentgains this year, combined with
easing market conditions in thecompeting resale market, will resultin starts below the peak set in 2012.Nevertheless, starts this year and
next will remain elevated by historicalstandards, supported by populationgrowth and move-up buyers taking
advantage of continued price gains inthe resale market.
Multiple Starts: By the end of 2013,
multi-family starts are projected tosurpass the level set in 2012 and reach3,500 units. Multi-family constructionis being buoyed by demand for new
condominium units. Low vacancyrates across the province are alsoencouraging builders to respond with
new construction in the rental sector.With increasing inventories expectednext year, however, builders will easeproduction in 2014 to 3,100 units.
Resales: Following the recordperformance of 2012, MLSsales areforecast to moderate to 13,700 unitsin 2013. A rebound in sales in the
latter part of this year will continueinto 2014, bringing sales to 13,800next year. Demand will be bolstered
by population growth and an increasein selection for buyers, as the numberof active listings continues to rise.However, modest employment and
income gains will temper the increasein sales.
Prices: The average residential MLSprice in Manitoba is forecast to riseto $256,500 in 2013, followed by amore moderate increase to $264,600
in 2014. Softer sales growth, combinedwith a higher inventory of activelistings, particularly in Winnipeg, willhelp reduce upward pressure on
prices over the forecast period.
Manitoba Starts (000s)
0
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles Multiples (F): ForecastSource: CMHC
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 7,400 for 2013 and 7,100 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 7,200-7,600 units for 2013
and 6,400-7,800 for 2014.
Figure 4
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
Ontario
Overview
Ontario economic growth willgradually improve over the forecasthorizon, rising from 1.5 per centthis year, to 2.4 per cent by 2014.This represents the first time in overa decade that Ontario will matchgrowth in all of Canada. While thehousing sector may be dampeningoverall provincial economic growththis year, the sector will have a moreneutral impact next year. Whilethe consumer and public sectorscontribute less to overall economicgrowth, the business and export
sectors will increasingly supportOntarios economy. The consensusamong Canadian private-sectorforecasters suggests that the U.S.economy will gain traction over theforecast horizon, which is expectedto contribute to Ontarios exportgrowth and the overall economicactivity in the province.
An improving economy will supportjob growth of 1.6 per cent in 2014.
So far, part-time employment hasshown stronger growth across theprovince. As concerns about the globaleconomy subside, businesses will gainconfidence and hire workers on amore permanent basis, particularlythrough the second half of 2014.Ontarios jobless rate should trendlower next year to reach its lowestlevel since 2008.
As Ontario narrows the growth
gap with the rest of Canada andas its population continues to age,migratory outflows to other provinceswill gradually lessen. Also, Ontariosshare of international migration willgradually normalize and trend closerto historic norms. Net migration toOntario will rise from 77,800 in 2013,to 86,300 net migrants in 2014.
Ontario home starts will slow thisyear before stabilizing in 2014. Startswill decline to 60,800 and 60,300units this year and next, respectively.Modest job growth, more choice inthe less expensive resale market andhigh levels of apartment units underconstruction will limit starts of newunits.
In Detail
Single Starts: Single-detached startswill reach 23,500 and 23,700 units in2013 and 2014, respectively. Improvingincome growth, low inventoriesof unsold homes and tighterresale market conditions for low-density housing will allow detachedconstruction to post some modestgrowth over the forecast horizon,relative to higher-density housingconstruction.
Multiple Starts: Multi-family homeconstruction will slow to 37,300 unitsthis year, and to 36,600 units in 2014.The apartment sector has captured agrowing share of new home activityin recent years, but has begun tonormalize. As a result, a rebalancingaway from apartments towardsemi-detached and row construction
will occur, given more modestinventories for these dwelling types.Nevertheless, historical propensitiessuggest that condo demand willcontinue to be supported by price-sensitive first-time buyers and agrowing pool of empty nesters aged55 to 64.
Resales: Existing home sales will reach198,700 units this year, in line with
2012 levels. After trending lowersince spring of 2012, existing homesales have re-gained momentum andare expected to gradually improve,reaching 201,300 units in 2014.More condominium completions,coupled with the resale markets priceadvantage, will provide more choice topotential home buyers.
Prices: A balanced Ontario resalemarket suggests that prices will
grow in line with the general rate ofinflation over the forecast horizon.In addition, shifting demand to lessexpensive housing resulting fromhigher home prices will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next few years. Ontariohome prices will reach $398,000and $404,200 in 2013 and 2014,respectively.
Ontario Starts (000s)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 60,800 for 2013 and 60,300 for 2014. Economic
uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 59,200-62,400 units for 2013
and 54,000-66,600 for 2014.
Figure 5
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
Quebec
Overview
In Quebec, relatively slow economicand employment growth will reducedemand of existing and new homesthis year. As well, easing resale marketsand relatively high inventories ofnew dwellings will significantly lowerhousing starts in 2013. Nonetheless,demographic trends will supporthousing demand into 2014, at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energizeboth the resale and new housingmarkets.
On the economic front, Quebecs
labour markets still feel the impacts ofa slow recovery south of the borderand of more favourable employmentprospects in Western Canada.Economic accounts for the first half ofthe year show slower rate of privateinvestment in machinery and labour.For this reason, employment willprogress at a relatively slow pacein 2013 and 2014 (approximately1 per cent each year). Meanwhile,
public and consumer spending haveincreased moderately, as have exports.GDP growth of between 1.3 and2.0 per cent is expected during theforecast horizon.
Demographic trends will continueto support the provinces housingmarkets in the next two years.Sustained immigration to the provincewill continue to have a positive impacton demand in the rental market, asflows are expected to remain stableduring the next two years. Totalnet migration is expected to reach,respectively, 44,300 and 45,300 peoplein 2013 and 2014. While moderatingdemand from younger householdscools first-time buying, populationaging will prompt some older
households to re-enter the marketin response to their evolving housingneeds.
In Detail
Single Starts: In 2013, moderate jobgrowth, the continued easing of theresale market, which is expectedto attract a greater part of housingdemand, and the trend toward multi-family dwelling will contribute to
reduced single starts and translateinto a total of 13,300 single-detachedhomes started. In 2014, a tighterresale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segment,which is expected to result in a similarnumber of starts as in 2013.
Multiple Starts: The trend toward themulti-family market segment is stillexplained by its relative affordability,the changing needs of an aging
population and by densificationtrends. Fuelled by the popularity ofcondominium apartments, supply inthis market segment has increasedsignificantly. As a result of three yearsof sustained construction from 2010to 2012, market conditions in thismarket have eased notably. Starts
of multi-family dwellings will, thus,decrease by nearly 25 per cent thisyear. Multiple starts will decreasebelow the 24,000 level in 2013 andstabilize in 2014 (23,500).
Resales: While remaining stable in2012, sales recorded by Centris14have been recently declining as aresult of the overall economic contextdiscussed previously. Despite a certainrebound in the second half of this
year, resales will come in at a lowerlevel. For 2013, just over 73,000 suchtransactions are forecast. As buyingconditions improve, total resales willbe back in growth mode next year.In total, 75,000 Centrissales areforecast for 2014.
Prices: Relatively lower demand forresale homes, combined with risingsupply, has taken pressure off pricegrowth in recent quarters and should
continue to do so throughout theforecast horizon. In this context,price growth in the resale market willcontinue to moderate in 2013. Theaverage price recorded by Centriswill reach $268,000 this year andapproach the $270,000 mark in 2014.
Quebec Starts (000s)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles Multiples (F): ForecastSource: CMHC
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 37,000 for 2013 and 36,700 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 36,100-37,900 units for 2013
and32,800-40,600 for 2014.
Figure 6
14The Centrissystem contains all the listings of Quebec real estate brokers.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
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New Brunswick
Overview
GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the forecast period,
with 0.2 per cent growth forecastfor the province in 2013 and just
under 1 per cent in 2014. The currenteconomic weakness stems mainlyfrom a reduction in capital investment.The natural resources sector, a key
driver of economic growth for theprovince, is expected to post mixedresults in both 2013 and 2014, as
improvement in the forestry sector isexpected to be offset by weakness inthe mining sector.
New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain weak for thefourth year in a row. Employment
growth is projected to remainnegative, with a 0.6 per cent declinein 2013, before finally seeing somegrowth in 2014 with a small 0.7 per
cent increase. A higher pace of growthin the labour force in 2013 will resultin the unemployment rate rising to10.8 per cent, with the rate remaining
the same in 2014.
The economic prospects for the
province continue to be held downby a lack of population growth and acontinuation in the negative outlookfor net migration. International
migration will be less than 1,000people per year in both 2013 and2014. Despite the positive totals
for international migration in both2013 and 2014, a reduction in
interprovincial migration will resultin negative net migration during
this period.
In Detail
Single Starts: Rising out-migrationfrom the provinces major centres toother parts of Canada, as a result of
increasingly challenging employmentconditions, will continue to have adampening effect on demand for
new homes and overall residentialconstruction activity in 2013 and 2014.As a result, single starts are forecast
to decline to 1,230 units in 2013 andto 1,170 units in 2014.
Multiple Starts: Stronger buildingactivity in the rental market since
2010, particularly in Moncton andFredericton, will maintain the trend ofrising vacancy rates over the forecast
period. Developers are expectedto begin pulling back in new rentalprojects, reducing apartment starts tolevels not seen since 2009. As a result,
multiple starts are expected to declineto 1,300 units in 2013, with a furtherdecline to 1,010 units in 2014.
Resales: Overall, the market willincreasingly benefit home buyers forthe provinces three largest centers,as price growth is slowing and listings
have been on the rise, resulting inbuyers market conditions. Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and negative net migration
to the province, demand for existinghomes is forecast to slow. MLSsales should decline to 6,200 units
in 2013, with a further decline to6,000 in 2014.
Prices: The inventory of available
homes is expected to remain athistorically high levels in NewBrunswicks large urban centres in2013 and 2014. This will continue
to impact the level of price growth.The MLSaverage price is expectedto remain relatively stable at $161,000
in 2013, followed by a moderate
decline to $160,500 in 2014.
New Brunswick Starts (000s)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 2,530 for 2013 and 2,180 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 2,205-2,855 units for 2013
and1,530-2,830 for 2014.
Figure 7
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
Nova Scotia
Overview
The province of Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic growth
of close to 1.0 per cent in 2013 and1.2 per cent in 2014. Economicconditions are expected to improvein 2014, as the manufacturing sectorsees a return to positive growth and
site development and pre-engineeringwork at the Halifax Shipyard continues.Furthermore, provincial productionof natural gas should increase in the
second half of 2013.
Nova Scotia labour market conditions
remained weak in 2013. As a result,employment growth is projected to beclose to zero in 2013, compared to arate of growth of 0.6 per cent in 2012.
In 2014, total employment will growby 0.4 per cent as a result of anexpected moderate rise in privatesector investment activity. A lower
level of growth in employment in2014 compared to labour force growthwill result in the unemployment rate
rising to 9.1 per cent, which will be thehighest level reported since 2010.
In 2013, interprovincial migration
will record a decline of nearly 4,000people. In 2014, expect interprovincialmigration to remain negative, as 2,100more migrants leave than come to the
province. International migration willdrop significantly in 2013 to under1,000 people before rebounding to
1,350 in 2014. As a result, net migration
will remain negative in 2013 and 2014.
In Detail
Single Starts: In 2013, as a result ofno employment growth and slowing
consumer demand, single-detachedstarts will drop to 1,725 units. For2014, expect the improvement inemployment growth and private
sector investment to stimulatedemand in the new homes market,resulting in a rise to 1,775 single-detached starts in the province.
Multiple Starts: The provincialmulti-family segment of the
market will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unitconstruction, most of which willcontinue to take place in Halifax. The
supply and demand conditions forrental housing continue to be drivenprimarily by an aging population basethat is looking to downsize or move
to one-floor living accommodations.Expect row units to see a pick-up inactivity over the forecast period in
order to answer demand from moreprice-sensitive home buyers. As aresult multiple starts will total 2,240units in 2013 and 2,250 units in 2014.
Resales: Following a slight increasein 2012, MLSsales will decline in2013 to 9,225 units. In 2014, expecta smaller decline in provincial
net migration and an improvingemployment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSsales to
9,500 units.
Prices: The average sale price of anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed
3.7 per cent in 2012 to $220,413. In2013, a rise in listings continues tokeep market conditions close to abuyers market, resulting in a decline
in prices to $218,000. In 2014, priceswill return to $220,000, as improvingeconomic factors will result in an
improvement of price performance.
Nova Scotia Starts (000s)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.53.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 3,965 for 2013 and 4,025 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 3,465-4,465 units for 2013
and3,025-5,025 for 2014.
Figure 8
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
Prince Edward
Island
Overview
Prince Edward Islands economy
is forecast to grow by 1.5 and1.3 per cent in 2013 and 2014,
respectively. The decline in theCanadian dollar has favoured tourismand the manufacturing sector, includingaerospace, agriculture and seafood
processing. During the first sevenmonths of 2013, manufacturing is upclose to 4 per cent and tourism isshowing a turnaround in traffic after
a slowdown earlier in the year.
Improving provincial labour marketconditions continue to support thestronger outlook for employment.Employment is forecast to growby 1.8 per cent in 2013, before
slowing to 1.1 per in 2014, aseconomic activity softens. Labourforce growth is expected to outpace
employment growth in 2014, resultingin the unemployment rate risingfrom 11.2 per cent in 2013, to
11.4 per cent in 2014.
The economic prospects forthe province will be held back
by slower population growth andrising out-migration. Net migrationis expected to remain moderatelynegative, in the range of 300 people
per year in 2013 and 2014 asinternational migration of about500 people per year is offset by arise in interprovincial migration
outflows of approximately 800 peopleper year over the forecast period.
In DetailSingle Starts: A slowdown inpopulation growth and employmentwill result in single starts movinglower in 2013, to 310 units with a
further decline to 300 units in 2014.
Multiple Starts: The increase in the
number of new multiple units since2009 has resulted in a continuing risein the rental vacancy rate beginning in2010. It is expected that the vacancy
rate will continue to increase in both2013 and 2014. As a result, multiplestarts are beginning to slow, which will
allow the market more time to absorbthe rising supply of new units over theforecast period. Multiple starts willmoderate to 425 units in 2013, before
declining further to 350 units in 2014.
Resales: The pullback in migrationand resulting slowdown in population
growth will impact housing salesin 2013 and 2014. MLSsales areforecast to reach 1,425 units in
2013, before declining to 1,350 unitsin 2014.
Prices: The resulting weakness in salesactivity and increase in listings overthe forecast period will impact thelevel of price growth. The averageMLSSales price is expected to
reach $155,000 in 2013, and $156,500in 2014.
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 735 for 2013 and 650 for 2014. Economic uncertainty
is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 650-820 units for 2013 and 480-820 for 2014.
Figure 9
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
Newfoundland and
Labrador
Overview
Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) will
lead economic growth in the countryin 2013, as GDP is expected to rise
to 4.0 per cent. Growth is expectedto moderate to 1.8 per cent in 2014.The rise in growth in 2013 is due to arebound in oil production and higher
oil prices. The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byconsumer spending and additionalprivate sector energy investment
activity. Recent news concerning new
potential oil fields outside of thecurrent production areas that are
being developed is also consideredpositive for the provinces futureeconomic growth.
NL labour market conditions willsoften moderately in 2013, asemployment growth is projected
to rise 1.6 per cent, comparedto 2.3 per cent in 2012. In 2014,employment growth will be reduced
to less than 1 per cent as privatesector investment activity slows fromlevels experienced over the last threeyears and projects currently underconstruction reach the completion
stage. A more moderate rise inthe labour force will result in theunemployment rate inching down
slightly, from 11.4 per cent in 2013to 11.3 per cent in 2014.
Net migration will remain weak over
the forecast period as interprovincialmigration, which turned negative in2012, is not expected to turn positive
until 2014. International migration willcontinue to contribute to population
growth in both 2013 and 2014.
In Detail
Single Starts: Steady, but slowerpopulation growth in 2013 and 2014,
coupled with a slowdown in theoutlook for employment in 2013and 2014, will reduce the demandfor housing. As a result, the level of
single starts will moderate. Recently,income growth has not been able tofully offset the effect of higher prices,so first-time home buyer activity is
also expected to weaken, resulting inthe provincial single-detached housingmarket declining to 2,350 starts in
2013 and 2,325 starts in 2014.
Multiple Starts: Multiple-unitconstruction is expected to decline
to 575 units in 201315, before risingto 675 units in 2014, as several newrental projects begin construction.Semi-detached and row starts activity
will hold steady over the forecast
period after the recent surge in bothactivity and prices from 2010-2012.
Resales: Although wage growth ispositive in NL, there are expectationsfor a decline in sales in 2013, as aresult of the softening outlook for
employment. MLSsales in 2013 areexpected to reach 4,000 sales, from4,650 in 2012, before beginning to
improve to 4,100 sales in 2014, as netmigration improves.
Prices: After several years of sustained
price growth, average MLShouse
price growth began to moderate tosingle-digit growth in 2011 and 2012.With inventory levels remaining
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilafter 2014, price growth is expected
to be lower in 2014, following threeyears of growth near 7 per cent peryear. Average MLShouse prices areexpected to be $287,000 in 2013, and
$292,000 in 2014.
Newfoundland & Labrador Starts (000s)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles Multiples (F): ForecastSource: CMHC
*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 2,925 for 2013 and 3,000 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 2,575-3,275 units for 2013
and 2,300-3,700 for 2014.
Figure 10
15The current declines are also partially due to a shift in the measurement of how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013.
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Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*
Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast
Figure 11
*The point estimate for total housing starts is 185,000 for 2013 and 184,700 for 2014. Economic uncertainty is reflectedby the current range of forecasts, which varies from 179,300-190,600 units for 2013 and 163,700-205,700 for 2014.
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Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013(F)
2014(F)
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4(F)
2014Q1(F)
2014Q2(F)
2014Q3(F)
2014Q4(F)
NFLD
3,606
3,488
3,885
2,925
3,000
2,726
3,062
2,538
3,375
2,800
3,175
3,125
2,900
%
18.0
-3.3
11.4
-24.7
2.6
-24.7
12.3
-17.1
33.0
-17.0
13.4
-1.6
-7.2
PEI
756
940
941
735
650
920
746
464
790
625
700
650
625
%
-13.8
24.3
0.1
-21.9
-11.6
-4.0
-18.9
-37.8
70.3
-20.9
12.0
-7.1
-3.8
NS
4,309
4,644
4,522
3,965
4,025
4,611
3,455
4,069
3,725
3,400
4,300
4,200
4,200
%
25.3
7.8
-2.6
-12.3
1.5
-11.0
-25.1
17.8
-8.5
-8.7
26.5
-2.3
0.0
NB
4,101
3,452
3,299
2,530
2,180
3,429
2,834
2,774
1,100
1,800
2,200
2,500
2,175
%
16.5
-
15.8
-4.4
-23.3
-13.9
16.3
-17.4
-2.1
-60.3
63.6
22.2
13.6
-13.0
QUE
51,363
48,387
47,367
37,000
36,700
35,926
38,397
36,695
37,100
36,700
36,700
36,700
36,700
%
18.3
-5.8
-2.1
-21.9
-0.8
-20.3
6.9
-4.4
1.1
-1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
ONT
60,433
67,821
76,742
60,800
60,300
56,715
58,200
65,546
62,800
63,100
62,000
59,500
56,425
%
20.0
12.2
13.2
-20.8
-0.8
-18.2
2.6
12.6
-4.2
0.5
-1.7
-4.0
-5.2
MAN
5,888
6,083
7,242
7,400
7,100
6,810
7,380
8,384
7,100
7,300
7,000
7,100
7,100
%
41.1
3.3
19.1
2.2
-4.1
6.1
8.4
13.6
-15.3
2.8
-4.1
1.4
0.0
SASK
5,907
7,031
9,968
8,600
8,000
6,558
7,529
11,045
9,200
7,900
8,200
8,000
7,900
%
52.8
19.0
41.8
-13.7
-7.0
-40.7
14.8
46.7
-16.7
-14.1
3.8
-2.4
-1.3
ALTA
27,088
25,704
33,396
34,200
34,900
33,725
39,193
32,131
31,700
34,500
34,900
34,700
35,500
%
33.5
-5.1
29.9
2.4
2.0
-2.2
16.2
-18.0
-1.3
8.8
1.2
-0.6
2.3
BC
26,479
26,400
27,465
26,800
27,900
24,036
25,393
29,997
27,800
28,100
27,800
28,000
27,600
%
64.7
-0.3
4.0
-2.4
4.1
-1.8
5.6
18.1
-7.3
1.1
-1.1
0.7
-1.4
CAN*
189,930
193,950
214,827
185,000
184,700
175,456
186,189
193,643
184,700
186,200
187,000
1
84,500
181,100
%
27.4
2.1
10.8
-13.9
-0.1
-13.8
6.1
4.0
-4.6
0.8
0.4
-1.3
-1.8
Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesum
oftheprovincesduetorounding.
(F)ForecastbyCMHC
*Canadiantotalexcludesterritories.Thepointestimatefortheforecastofnationaltotalhousingstartsis185,0
00un
itsfor2013and184,7
00unitsfor2014.
Economicuncertaintyisreflectedbythe
currentrangeofforecasts,whichvariesfrom
179,300-1
90,6
00unitsfor2013and163,7
00-2
05,7
00unitsfor2014.
**Quarterlylevelsareseasonallyadjustedatannu
alrates.
Ta
ble1:TotalHousingStarts
(units**
and
percentage
change)
SOURCE:CMHC
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Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013(F)
2014(F)
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4(F)
2014Q1(F)
2014Q2(F)
2014Q3(F)
2014Q4(F)
NFLD
2,941
2,612
2,523
2,350
2,325
2,319
2,432
2,051
2,600
2,200
2,500
2,400
2,200
%
12.9
-1
1.2
-3.4
-6.9
-1.0
-5.9
4.9
-15.7
26.8
-15.4
13.6
-4.0
-8.3
PEI
396
431
387
310
300
323
345
281
290
275
325
300
300
%
-7.9
8.8
-10.2
-20.0
-3.1
-12.9
6.8
-18.6
3.2
-5.2
18.2
-7.7
0.0
NS
2,392
2,045
2,258
1,725
1,775
1,580
1,607
1,689
2,025
1,600
1,800
1,800
1,900
%
9.1
-1
4.5
10.4
-23.6
2.9
-30.6
1.7
5.1
19.9
-21.0
12.5
0.0
5.6
NB
2,068
1,823
1,697
1,230
1,170
1,286
1,195
1,426
1,000
1,000
1,200
1,300
1,175
%
-4.0
-1
1.8
-6.9
-27.5
-4.9
-8.5
-7.1
19.3
-29.9
0.0
20.0
8.3
-9.6
QUE
19,549
16,554
16,059
13,300
13,200
13,117
13,755
13,092
13,200
13,200
13,200
1
3,200
13,200
%
11.5
-1
5.3
-3.0
-17.2
-0.8
-13.8
4.9
-4.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ONT
28,089
26,884
25,567
23,500
23,700
23,101
23,393
23,338
24,300
24,800
24,500
2
3,500
21,925
%
24.1
-
4.3
-4.9
-8.1
0.9
-6.8
1.3
-0.2
4.1
2.1
-1.2
-4.1
-6.7
MAN
3,976
3,831
4,169
3,900
4,000
3,842
3,916
3,644
4,100
4,100
3,900
4,000
4,000
%
30.7
-
3.6
8.8
-6.5
2.6
-7.3
1.9
-6.9
12.5
0.0
-4.9
2.6
0.0
SASK
3,830
4,152
5,171
4,200
4,200
3,922
3,777
4,509
4,400
4,100
4,400
4,100
4,200
%
35.4
8.4
24.5
-18.8
0.0
-19.5
-3.7
19.4
-2.4
-6.8
7.3
-6.8
2.4
ALTA
17,851
15,193
17,493
18,300
19,100
19,280
18,165
18,073
17,800
19,200
19,000
1
9,000
19,200
%
24.4
-1
4.9
15.1
4.6
4.4
9.1
-5.8
-0.5
-1.5
7.9
-1.0
0.0
1.1
BC
11,462
8,867
8,333
8,400
9,200
8,279
7,736
8,546
9,100
9,300
9,300
9,200
9,100
%
45.2
-2
2.6
-6.0
0.8
9.5
2.3
-6.6
10.5
6.5
2.2
0.0
-1.1
-1.1
CAN*
92,554
82,392
83,657
77,200
79,000
77,049
76,321
76,649
78,800
79,800
80,100
7
8,800
77,200
%
22.3
-1
1.0
1.5
-7.8
2.3
-5.2
-0.9
0.4
2.8
1.2
0.4
-1.7
-2.0
Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesum
ofthe
provincesduetorounding.
(F)ForecastbyCMHC.
*Canadiantotalexcludesterritories.Thepointestimatefortheforecastofnationalsingle-detachedhousingstartsis77
,200unitsfor2013and79,0
00unitsfor2014.
Economicuncertaint
yisreflected
bythecurrentrangeofforecasts,whichvariesfrom
74,8
00-7
9,6
00unitsfor2013and69,8
00-8
8,2
00unitsfor2014.
**Quarterlylevelsareseasonallyadjustedatannual
rates.
SOURCE:CMHC
Table2:Single-DetachedHousingStarts
(u
nits**
and
percentage
change)
8/13/2019 CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook
20/33
2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013(F)
2014(F)
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4(F)
2014Q1(F)
2014Q2(F)
201
4Q3(F)
2014Q4(F)
NFLD
665
876
1,362
575
675
407
630
487
775
600
675
725
700
%
47.5
31.7
55.5
-57.8
17.4
-64.8
54.8
-22.7
59.1
-22.6
12.5
7.4
-3.4
PEI
360
509
554
425
350
597
401
183
500
350
375
350
325
%
-19.5
41.4
8.8
-23.2
-17.7
1.7
-32.8
-54.4
173.2
-30.0
7.1
-6.7
-7.1
NS
1,917
2
,599
2,264
2,240
2,250
3,031
1,848
2,380
1,700
1,800
2,500
2,400
2,300
%
54.0
35.6
-12.9
-1.1
0.5
4.3
-39.0
28.8
-28.6
5.9
38.9
-4.0
-4.2
NB
2,033
1
,629
1,602
1,300
1,010
2,143
1,639
1,348
100
800
1,000
1,200
1,000
%
48.7
-19.9
-1.7
-18.9
-22.3
39.0
-23.5
-17.8
-92.6
700.0
25.0
20.0
-16.7
QUE
31,814
31
,833
31,308
23,700
23,500
22,809
24,642
23,603
23,900
23,500
23,500
23,500
23,500
%
23.0
0.1
-1.6
-24.3
-0.8
-23.6
8.0
-4.2
1.3
-1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
ONT
32,344
40
,937
51,175
37,300
36,600
33,614
34,807
42,208
38,500
38,300
37,500
36,000
34,500
%
16.6
26.6
25.0
-27.1
-1.9
-24.5
3.5
21.3
-8.8
-0.5
-2.1
-4.0
-4.2
MAN
1,912
2
,252
3,073
3,500
3,100
2,968
3,464
4,740
3,000
3,200
3,100
3,100
3,100
%
68.9
17.8
36.5
13.9
-11.4
30.6
16.7
36.8
-36.7
6.7
-3.1
0.0
0.0
SASK
2,077
2
,879
4,797
4,400
3,800
2,636
3,752
6,536
4,800
3,800
3,800
3,900
3,700
%
100.3
38.6
66.6
-8.3
-13.6
-57.4
42.3
74.2
-26.6
-20.8
0.0
2.6
-5.1
ALTA
9,237
10
,511
15,903
15,900
15,800
14,445
21,028
14,058
13,900
15,300
15,900
15,700
16,300
%
55.1
13.8
51.3
0.0
-0.6
-14.2
45.6
-33.1
-1.1
10.1
3.9
-1.3
3.8
BC
15,017
17
,533
19,132
18,400
18,700
15,757
17,657
21,451
18,700
18,800
18,500
18,800
18,500
%
83.5
16.8
9.1
-3.8
1.6
-3.8
12.1
21.5
-12.8
0.5
-1.6
1.6
-1.6
CAN*
97,376
111
,558
131,170
107,800
105,700
98,407
109,868
116,994
105,900
106,500
106,900
105,700
103,900
%
32.6
14.6
17.6
-17.8
-1.9
-19.5
11.6
6.5
-9.5
0.5
0.4
-1.1
-1.7
Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesumof
theprovincesduetorounding.
(F)ForecastbyCMHC
*Canadiantotalexcludesterritories.Thepoint
estimatefortheforecastofnationalmultiplestartsis107,8
00units
for2013and105,7
00unitsfor2014.
Economicuncertaintyisreflec
tedbythe
currentrangeofforecasts,whichvariesfrom
10
4,5
00-1
11,1
00unitsfor2013and93,9
00-1
17,5
00unitsfor2014.
**Quarterlylevelsareseasonallyadjustedatannualrates.
Ta
ble3:MultipleHousingStarts
(units**
and
percentage
change)
SOURCE:CMHC
8/13/2019 CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook
21/33
2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 45 45
Row 149 135 121 80 80
Apartment 390 654 1,153 450 550
Total 665 876 1,362 575 675
PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 70
Row 50 47 127 50 50
Apartment 241 392 333 300 230
Total 360 509 554 425 350
NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 330 340
Row 200 241 218 310 310
Apartment 1,344 1,940 1,626 1,600 1,600
Total 1,917 2,599 2,264 2,240 2,250
NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 280 230
Row 221 211 162 150 130
Apartment 1,337 946 1,014 870 650
Total 2,033 1,629 1,602 1,300 1,010
QUE Semi-Detached 4,359 4,002 3,866 3,200 3,100
Row 2,029 1,855 1,904 1,400 1,500
Apartment 25,426 25,976 25,538 19,100 18,900
Total 31,814 31,833 31,308 23,700 23,500
ONT Semi-Detached 3,006 3,142 3,397 3,300 3,450
Row 10,255 9,288 10,577 8,800 9,500
Apartment 19,083 28,507 37,201 25,200 23,650
Total 32,344 40,937 51,175 37,300 36,600
MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 327 290
Row 387 672 538 588 521
Apartment 1,344 1,337 2,189 2,585 2,289
Total 1,912 2,252 3,073 3,500 3,100
SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 447 386
Row 485 878 813 1,136 981
Apartment 1,366 1,758 3,300 2,817 2,433
Total 2,077 2,879 4,797 4,400 3,800
ALTA Semi-Detached 2,737 2,811 3,886 3,962 3,938
Row 2,596 2,473 3,315 3,736 3,712
Apartment 3,904 5,227 8,702 8,202 8,150
Total 9,237 10,511 15,903 15,900 15,800
BC Semi-Detached 1,454 1,082 1,078 1,200 1,100
Row 3,485 3,647 3,201 3,300 3,600
Apartment 10,078 12,804 14,853 13,900 14,000
Total 15,017 17,533 19,132 18,400 18,700
CAN* Semi-Detached 13,006 12,570 14,285 13,211 12,889
Row 19,857 19,447 20,976 19,550 20,384
Apartment 64,513 79,541 95,909 75,024 72,452
Total 97,376 111,558 131,170 107,785 105,725
Source: CMHC (F) Forecast. * Totals may not add due to rounding.
Table 4: Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)
8/13/2019 CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook
22/33
2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013(F)
2014(F)
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4(F)
2014Q1(F)
2014Q2(F)
2014Q3(F)
2014Q4(F)
NFLD
4,236
4,480
4,650
4,000
4,100
4,484
4,396
4,228
2,900
4,000
4,200
4,200
4,000
%
-4.1
5.8
3.8
-14
.0
2.5
3.0
-2.0
-3.8
-31
.4
37
.9
5.0
0.0
-4.8
PEI
1,487
1,521
1,614
1,425
1,350
1,656
1,672
1,308
1,050
1,300
1,400
1,400
1,300
%
5.9
2.3
6.1
-11
.7
-5.2
22
.5
1.0
-21
.8
-19
.7
23
.8
7.7
0.0
-7.1
NS
10,036
10,312
10,437
9,225
9,500
9,032
9,024
9,432
9,400
9,250
9,500
9,600
9,650
%
0.1
2.8
1.2
-11
.6
3.0
-4.5
-0.1
4.5
-0.3
-1.6
2.7
1.1
0.5
NB
6,702
6,599
6,403
6,200
6,000
6,140
6,464
6,356
5,850
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,000
%
-4.3
-1.5
-3.0
-3.2
-3.2
-0.1
5.3
-1.7
-8.0
-0.9
3.4
3.3
-3.2
QUE
80,027
77,167
77,381
73,100
75,000
70,660
72,844
74,412
74,500
74,750
75,750
75,250
74,250
%
1.2
-3.6
0.3
-5.5
2.6
-2.8
3.1
2.2
0.1
0.3
1.3
-0.7
-1.3
ONT
196,662
201,761
197,620
198,700
201,300
187,068
196,900
207,772
203,000
204,000
205,500
2
01,000
194,688
%
-0.2
2.6
-2.1
0.5
1.3
0.4
5.3
5.5
-2.3
0.5
0.7
-2.2
-3.1
MAN
13,164
13,944
14,008
13,700
13,800
13,080
13,848
14,020
13,800
13,700
13,900
13,800
13,800
%
0.6
5.9
0.5
-2.2
0.7
-5.8
5.9
1.2
-1.6
-0.7
1.5
-0.7
0.0
SASK
10,872
13,131
13,886
13,400
13,600
12,248
13,904
14,036
13,400
13,500
13,700
13,700
13,600
%
-2.0
20
.8
5.7
-3.5
1.5
-5.5
13
.5
0.9
-4.5
0.7
1.5
0.0
-0.7
ALTA
49,723
53,756
60,369
65,000
66,800
61,016
64,808
69,872
64,300
66,450
67,050
66,750
66,750
%
-13
.6
8.1
12
.3
7.7
2.8
3.6
6.2
7.8
-8.0
3.3
0.9
-0.4
0.0
BC
74,640
76,721
67,637
71,600
76,800
61,528
69,904
80,520
74,500
76,500
77,500
77,000
76,200
%
-12
.2
2.8
-11
.8
5.9
7.3
-1.2
13
.6
15
.2
-7.5
2.7
1.3
-0.6
-1.0
CAN*
447,549
459,392
454,005
456,700
468,200
427,356
454,188
482,426
462,700
469,300
474,500
4
68,900
460,200
%
-3.9
2.6
-1.2
0.6
2.5
-0.3
6.3
6.2
-4.1
1.4
1.1
-1.2
-1.8
Note:
Cana
diantota
lmaynota
ddtothesum
oftheprov
inces
duetoroun
ding.
(F)Forecast
by
CMHC
.
*Cana
diantota
ldoesnot
inc
ludetheterr
itories.
Thepo
intest
imate
forthe
forecasto
fnationa
lresi
dentia
lresa
les
is4
56
,700un
its
for
2013an
d468
,200un
its
for
2014
.Econom
icuncerta
inty
isre
flecte
dbythe
currentrangeo
fforecasts,w
hichvaries
from
439,400
-474
,000un
its
for
2013an
d438
,300
-498
,100un
its
for
2014
.
**Quarterly
leve
lsareseasona
llya
djuste
datannu
alrates.
Table5:TotalResidentialResales
(units**
and
percentage
change)
SOURCE:TheCanadianRealEstateAssociation(CREA)andQFREBbytheCentris
system.
8/13/2019 CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook
23/33
2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013(F)
2014(F)
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4(F)
2014Q1(F)
2014Q2(F)
201
4Q3(F)
2014Q4(F)
NFLD
235,341
251
,581
268,776
287,000
292,000
288,029
285,643
282,589
293,000
287,000
292,750
296,000
292,000
%
14.0
6.9
6.8
6.8
1.7
3.9
-0.8
-1.1
3.7
-2.0
2.0
1.1
-1.4
PEI
147,196
149
,618
152,250
155,000
156,500
152,671
159,551
157,655
150,000
150,000
157,650
160,000
158,000
%
0.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.0
-0.3
4.5
-1.2
-4.9
0.0
5.1
1.5
-1.3
NS
206,186
212
,512
220,413
218,000
220,000
218,768
214,631
217,626
221,000
218,000
220,000
222,000
220,000
%
4.8
3.1
3.7
-1.1
0.9
1.8
-1.9
1.4
1.6
-1.4
0.9
0.9
-0.9
NB
157,240
160
,545
161,116
161,000
160,500
159,737
159,735
162,714
161,500
158,000
161,875
162,000
160,000
%
1.5
2.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.3
-0.6
0.0
1.9
-0.7
-2.2
2.5
0.1
-1.2
QUE
241,455
252
,148
260,524
268,000
269,800
275,843
268,700
267,748
260,000
268,000
270,000
270,500
270,500
%
7.1
4.4
3.3
2.9
0.7
0.6
-2.6
-0.4
-2.9
3.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
ONT
341,425
365
,018
384,455
398,000
404,200
390,357
394,639
404,712
401,500
402,000
404,000
405,500
405,500
%
7.5
6.9
5.3
3.5
1.6
2.4
1.1
2.6
-0.8
0.1
0.5
0.4
0.0
MAN
222,132
234
,604
246,318
256,500
264,600
254,994
254,340
257,487
260,000
262,300
264,100
265,500
266,500
%
10.3
5.6
5.0
4.1
3.2
0.1
-0.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
SASK
242,258
259
,461
275,490
286,500
293,000
283,916
285,423
287,966
288,600
291,000
292,000
293,000
294,000
%
4.0
7.1
6.2
4.0
2.3
-0.2
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
ALTA
352,301
353
,394
363,208
379,200
387,400
375,767
375,980
383,461
381,000
383,100
386,600
389,600
391,600
%
3.1
0.3
2.8
4.4
2.2
1.8
0.1
2.0
-0.6
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
BC
505,178
561
,304
514,836
531,300
535,000
514,618
520,123
550,019
535,000
533,000
535,000
537,000
535,000
%
8.5
11.1
-8.3
3.2
0.7
1.8
1.1
5.7
-2.7
-0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.4
CAN*
338,710
362
,324
363,405
378,000
385,200
367,382
372,775
388,651
381,900
383,700
385,800
386,500
384,900
%
5.8
7.0
0.3
4.0
1.9
2.0
1.5
4.3
-1.7
0.5
0.5
0.2
-0.4
(F)ForecastbyCMHC.
**Quarterlyaveragesareseasonallyadjusted.
Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesumof
theprovincesduetorounding.
*Canadianaveragedoesnotincludetheterritories.Thepointestimatefortheforecastofnationalresidentialpricesis$378,0
00for2013and$385,2
00for2014.
Economicuncertaintyisreflectedbythe
currentrangeofforecasts,whichvariesfrom
$3
72,3
00-$
383,7
00for2013and$374,1
00-$
396,3
00for2014.
Table6
:AverageResidentialResalePrice
($**
and
percentage
change)
SOURCE:TheCanadianRealEstateAssociation
(CREA)andQFREBbytheCentris
system.
8/13/2019 CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook
24/33
2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
NFLD 1.0 -2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 1.6 0.8
PEI 1.2 -1.3 2.9 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.1
NS 0.9 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4
NB 0.6 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.7
QUE 1.2 -0.8 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2
ONT 1.6 -2.5 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.6
MAN 1.7 0.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0
SASK 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.7
ALTA 3.1 -1.4 -0.4 3.8 2.7 2.8 2.3
BC 2.0 -2.1 1.7 0.8 1.7 -0.1 1.0
CAN* 1.7 -1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4
to 2.0 per cent for 2014.
uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 1.0 per cent to 1.8 per cent for 2013 and 0.8 per cent
*The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 1.4 per cent for 2013 and 1.4 per cent for 2014. Economic
National forecast reflects the September 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics.
Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC.
(annual percentage change)
Table 7: Employment
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2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
NFLD 13.2 15.5 14.4 12.7 12.5 11.4 11.3
PEI 10.8 12.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.4
NS 7.7 9.2 9.3 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.1
NB 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.5 10.2 10.8 10.8
QUE 7.2 8.5 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4
ONT 6.5 9.0 8.7 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.2
MAN 4.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6
SASK 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.1 4.3
ALTA 3.6 6.6 6.5 5.5 4.6 4.6 4.5
BC 4.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.7 6.8 7.0
CAN* 6.1 8.3 8.0 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0
to 7.4 per cent for 2014.
uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 6.8 per cent to 7.4 per cent for 2013 and 6.6 per cent
*The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 7.1 per cent for 2013 and 7.0 per cent for 2014. Economic
National forecast reflects the September 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics.
Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC.
Table 8: Unemployment Rate
(per cent)
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2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)
NFLD -1.0 -10.3 6.3 3.0 -0.5 4.0 1.8
PEI 0.9 0.3 2.6 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.3
NS 2.5 -0.3 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2
NB 0.9 -0.6 3.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.8
QUE 1.4 -0.5 2.5 1.9 0.8 1.3 2.0
ONT -0.