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Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
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Commodities Weekly Tracker
ContentsReturns
Non Agri Commodities Currencies
Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
Gold
Silver
Copper Crude Oil
Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
Chana
Black Pepper Turmeric
Jeera
Soybean
Refine Soy Oil & CPO
Sugar
Kapas
Monday | June 17, 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
4.5
1.7 1.7
0.9 0.9 0.8
(1.2)
(3.5)(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0Currencies Weekly Performance
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Equities Performance during the week
(1.01) (1.17) (1.23) (1.29)(1.48) (1.54)
(1.74) (1.80)
(2.81)(3.22)(3.50)
(3.00)
(2.50)
(2.00)
(1.50)
(1.00)
(0.50)
0.00
Global Equities Performance (%)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
1.9 1.8
0.5
(1.8) (2.0)(2.2)
(2.5)
(3.7)
(4.6)(5.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance
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*Weekly Performance for July contract, Mentha Oil Cotton & CPO- June Contract,
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Gold
Weekly Price Performance
Spot Gold prices rose 0.5 percent last week to close at $1390.20/oz.
On the MCX, gold prices increased 1 percent to close at Rs.27,811/10 gms as Rupee
depreciation supported further upside.
ETF Performance
SPDR Gold Trust Holdings declined 0.4 percent to 1,003.53 tonnes in the last week
Gold Equity Stocks Correct on RBIs Import Restrictions
The RBI reiterated that all imports of gold for domestic consumption can be made
only on 100 percent cash margin basis.
This led to sharp decline in shares of jewelry maker Titan last week. Stocks of other
manufacturers also came under pressure. Restrictive measures are not expected to
curb demand but rather lead to a restricted supply-side crunch.
China Gold ETF Products
China has approved two domestic exchange-trade gold products amid a drop in world
gold ETF holdings. These funds will be dominated in Yuan and the China Gold
Association thinks that this step will help to boost gold demand as the avenue will
make investment in the yellow metal easier.
Last year, China was the worlds second-largest gold consumer with demand at 776.1
metric tonnes, slightly behind Indias at 864.2 metric tonnes.
Our Opinion This launch of ETFs may not necessarily translate into increase in
demand, as the status of gold as a safe-haven asset is fading but it will rather bring in
a new investment avenue within the gold market for investors.
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
25,500
26,500
27,500
28,500
29,500
30,500
31,500
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
Spot Gold Vs Dollar Index
Spot Gol d -$/oz US Dol lar Inde x
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
GoldNews and Developments
VietnamAsias fourth-largest gold consumer
The countrys central bank has increased supply via regular tenders.
The gold market in Vietnam is tightly controlled by a central bank that is
trying to revive its economy. The central bank is also trying to reduce the
price gap between the local and global markets in order to stabilise the
dollar/dong exchange rate.
South Korean Gold Market Fading Sentiment
The rise in gold prices had attracted gold investors in South Korea but the
sharp crash seen in April13 pulled investors away. The Korea Gold Exchange witnessed a steep fall in total sales of gold bars.
With expectations of further correction in prices, investors are keeping
away.
Sudan Gold Exports
Sudans central bank has restricted all types of imports and exports of
gold including refined and bars unless an import permit is received from
the Ministry of Commerce.
The yellow metal has now become the countrys major export and has
partially replaced oil revenues that used to account for 50 percent of the
countrys income
For 2013, gold output in the country is expected to stand at 50 tonnes
Indian gold imports fall in May13
Net gold imports into India may have declined from an average
$135 million in the first-half ofMay13 to $36 million in the second-
half of the month. Finance Minister P Chidambaram urged Indian investors to resist
the temptation to buy gold. He added that if gold purchases declined
then this would help to curb the burgeoning Current Account Deficit.
OutlookWeekly trend in gold prices is expected to be bullish on account of
expectations that the Federal Reserve might continue its bond-
buying program in the next few months, thereby leading to weakness
in the Dollar Index.
Weekly Technical LevelsSpot Gold : Support 1,373/1,354 Resistance 1,402/1,414.(CMP: $1,386.95)Buy MCX Gold August between 27,711-27,680, SL-27,470,Target -28,220. (CMP: Rs 27,782)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Silver
Weekly Price Performance
Silver prices in the international markets and on the MCX increased 1.8percent in the last week, taking cues from increase in gold prices.
ETF Performance
Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust gained marginally last week to 9,998.93
tonnes from 9,988.42 tonnes on 7th June 2013.
Factors that influenced upside in silver prices
Positive movement in gold prices. Weakness in the DX.
Rise in the ishares silver trust holdings.
However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of weak performance
in the base metals group.
Outlook Silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note this week as upbeat cues
from gold prices coupled with weakness in the Dollar Index will act as a
supportive factor for prices.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Silver: Support 21.73/21.42 Resistance 22.58/23.14. (CMP:$21.96)
Buy MCX Silver July between 43,500-43,450, SL-42,900, Target -
44,600/45,200. (CMP: Rs.43,640)
21
23
25
27
29
31
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Silver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Silve r -$ /oz US Dollar Inde x
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
CopperWeekly Price Performance
LME Copper prices slipped 2 percent last week, while prices on the MCX near-month
contract declined 1.7 percent, owing to Rupee depreciation in the last week thatcushioned downside.
On the LME, the red metal touched a weekly low of $7011.25/tonne last week. Around
mid-week, LME copper prices recovered from their five-week low as supply setbacks at
the Grasberg mine in Indonesia supported upside. The miner declared a force majeure
in shipments of copper concentrates , indicating that the current situation is not in the
companys control.
On the domestic front, prices dropped around 1.7 percent and closed at Rs. 407.50/kg,
on Friday after touching a low of Rs 405.40/kg in the last week. Depreciation in the
Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX.Copper Inventories
Copper inventories over the week increased 1.3 percent on the LME to 618,075 tonnes
and on the SHFE, inventories rose 1.1 percent to 183,410 tonnes..
Supply-side factors
Mine shutdowns due to accidents at Freeport McMorans Grasberg mine and Rio
Tintos operations in Utah have affected world supply
On the back of this, BHP Billiton has agreed to an increase of 3 percent in smelting fees
to Japanese smelters
World copper market is expected to witness a surplus, but these shutdowns may help
to reduce the extent of surplus
Freeport McMoran
The estimated daily output impact on account of a temporary shutdown is expected to
be around 3 million pounds (1361 tonnes) of copper (accounts for around 2.9 percent
of average daily world copper output) and 3000 ounces of gold per day.
Between 15th May to 11th June, the Grasberg mine has lost approximately 80 million
pounds of copper and 80,000 ounces of gold output.
365
375
385
395
405
415
425
435
445
455
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
LME and MCX Copper Price Per formance
LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
318,000
368,000
418,000
468,000
518,000
568,000
618,000
LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Copper
Antofagastas annual copper output
The miner expects it annual copper output to stand around 700,000 tonnes in 2013, in l ine with estimates made earlier
During the first-quarter of the year, average throughput levels at Esperanza stood around 90,000 tonnes per day
Outlook
Supply-side worries are expected to be supportive for copper prices during the week.
Weakness in the Dollar Index will additionally aid upside in prices on the LME.
Weekly Technical Levels
LME Copper: Support 6995/6895 Resistance 7205/7320. (CMP: $7134.75)
Buy MCX Copper June between 397-395, SL-389, Target -411. (CMP: Rs 410.25)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Crude OilWeekly Price Performance
Nymex WTI crude oil prices jumped 1.9 percent last week to close at
$97.85/bbl and on the MCX, the near-month contract gained 2.4 percent toclose at Rs5643/bbl.
Weakness in the Dollar Index along with supply concerns from Turkey
supported gains in the commodity. Additionally, expectations of decline in
crude output from Libya acted as a positive factor.
Oil Inventories Fall Last Week
Both, American Petroleum Institute and the US Energy Department reported
a rise in oil inventories by 9.0 mb and 2.5 mb for the week ending 7thJune13.
Energy Information Administration Short-term Energy Outlook
Crude oil demand for April13 in the Non-OECD nations rose more than that of
the developing nations for the first time ever in history.
Non-OECD consumption touched 44.5 mpbd in April13, rising around 50
percent in the last decade. During the same period, OECD consumption stood
at 44.3 mbpd
Growth in Non-OECD demand has been backed by surge in growth in China
By 2013, the EIA expects the developing countries to become a major world oil
consumer
Patterns of world oil demand are witnessing a change, with China being at theforefront . On the supply front too, China has captured a large share of oil
development and production in Iraq, giving the country an edge over the other
developing nations in terms of securing domestic oil supplies
World oil demand is expected to average 89.2 mpbd in 2012, rising around
900,000 bpd from last year. The average stood at 78 mbpd 10 years ago.
Non-OPEC output is expected to increase more than consumption, rising by
around 1.2 mpbd to 53.91 mbpd
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
4,700
4,800
4,900
5,000
5,100
5,200
5,300
5,400
5,500
5,600
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
M CX crude o il (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oi l ($/bbl)
361.3
360.3
363.1369.1
371.7
372.2
376.4
377.53
381.4
384
382.7
385.9
388.6 388.9
387.6
388.6
395.3 395.5
394.9 394.6
397.6
391.3
393.8
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
395
400
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Crude Oil
Outlook
Supply-side worries from Turkey and Libya will be the major factor that will support upside in crude oil prices over the week. Over the week, if crude oil inventories decline then the commodity will receive further upside support.
Weekly Technical Levels
Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 96.80/95.40 Resistance 99.60/101.15. (CMP:$98.08)
Buy MCX Crude July between 5625-5605, SL-5540, Target -5765. (CMP:Rs 5658)
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India
Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 9.31 percent in May as against a rise of 9.39 percent in April. Industrial production declined to 2 percent in April from rise of 2.5 percent a month ago.
Manufacturing output also dropped and was at 2.8 percent in April as compared to increase of 3.2 percent in prior month.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation declined to 4.7 percent in May as against a rise of 4.89 percent in April.
WPI fuel index dropped to 7.32 percent in May from previous rise of 8.8 percent a month ago. W
Food inflation rose to 8.25 percent in last month as compared to 6.1 percent in April .
Japan
Current Account was at a surplus of 0.85 trillion Yen in April as against a surplus of 0.34 trillion Yen a month ago.
Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 1 percent in Q1 of 2013 from earlier increase of 0.9 percent in Q4 of 2012.
Consumer Confidence increased by 1.2 points to 45.7-mark in May as compared to rise of 44.5-level in April.
Economy Watchers Sentiment declined by 0.8 points to 55.7-level in last month with respect to increase of 56.5-mark in April .
Business Survey Index (BSI) Manufacturing Index rose to 5-mark in Q2 of 2013 from earlier -4.6-level in Q1 of 2013.
Prelim Machine Tool Orders declined by 7.4 percent in May from earlier fall of 23.6 percent a month ago.
Core Machinery Orders declined by 8.8 percent in April as against a rise of 14.2 percent a month ago.
Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) rose to 0.6 percent in May from earlier rise of 0.1 percent in April.
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Economy
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US
Core Retail Sales increased by 0.3 percent in May. Retail Sales rose by 0.6 percent in May as against a previous rise of 0.1 percent in April.
Unemployment Claims declined by 12,000 to 334,000 for week ending on 7th June from earlier rise of 346,000 in prior week.
Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.5 percent in May as against a decline of 0.7 percent in April.
Current Account was at a deficit of $106 billion in Q1 of 2013 from previous deficit of $102 bill ion in Q4 of 2012.
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases declined 37.3 billion in Apri l as compared to fall of 13.4 bil lion a month ago.
Capacity Utilization Rate was at 77.6 percent in May with respect to rise of 77.7 percent in earlier month.
Prelim University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.8 points to 82.7-mark in June when compared to rise of 84.5-level in May.
Euro Zone
French Industrial Production increased by 2.2 percent in April as against a decline of 0.6 percent a month ago.
Italian Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent in April from earlier drop of 0.9 percent in March.
European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -11.6-mark in May as compared to -15.6-level in April.
European Industrial Production gained by 0.4 percent in April from earlier rise of 0.9 percent a month ago.
European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.4 percent in the month of May.
Core CPI rose to 1.2 percent in May from earl ier rise of 1 percent a month ago.
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Economy
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
RBI Monetary Policy Review Silent on Interest Rates Citing growth-inflation dynamics and recent developments in the external sector, the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Rupee was the
worst performing currency in Asia in the last week.
With improving US economic data and expectations of the monetary stimulus pullback,
the Indian economy will have to gear up in order to sustain capital inflows and increase
the concentration of investments in India in order to mitigate the impact of a bounce
back in the US. This is because, better economic prospects and treasury yields in the US
will reduce investor concentration and participation in the Indian markets. Asia, in any
case is seeing a marked slowdown, with China being at the forefront.
Indications for further changes in interest rates in the July13 policy are currently mute
but may change over time, given that the monsoon this year is expected to be normal,thus reducing the supply-side pressure and thereby easing inflation.
In its review, the central bank has indicated that the key to boosting economic growth
could be done through increasing investment by creating a favorable and conducive
environment for private investment, improving project clearance and raising the role of
public investment.
This move by the RBI has largely dampened sentiments at a time when the world
economy is suddenly witnessing a slowdown in growth momentum. Recent measures
in order to reduce the Current Account Deficit (CAD) by way of curbing gold imports
through restricting its supply and increasing customs duty, it looks like the RBI is using
indirect measures to reduce economic hurdles and is also applying the same strategy to
boost economic growth.
8.5
7
6
9
6.5
4.75
6.75
8.5
7.25
4.2
5.2
6.2
7.2
8.2
9.2
10.2
27
-04-2001
28
-05-2001
23
-10-2001
28
-03-2002
30
-10-2002
3
-03-2003
19
-03-2003
25
-08-2003
27
-10-2004
26
-10-2005
8
-06-2006
31
-10-2006
31
-03-2007
25
-06-2008
20
-10-2008
8
-12-2008
5
-03-2009
19
-03-2010
2
-07-2010
16
-09-2010
25
-01-2011
3
-05-2011
26
-07-2011
25
-10-2011
17
-04-2012
19
-03-2013
17
-06-2013
Repo Rate (%)
6.5
5.5
4.5
6 6
3.25
5.25
7.5
6.25
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
27-04-2001
28-05-2001
23-10-2001
28-03-2002
30-10-2002
3-03-2003
19-03-2003
25-08-2003
27-10-2004
26-10-2005
8-06-2006
31-10-2006
31-03-2007
25-06-2008
20-10-2008
8-12-2008
5-03-2009
19-03-2010
2-07-2010
16-09-2010
25-01-2011
3-05-2011
26-07-2011
25-10-2011
17-04-2012
19-03-2013
17-06-2013
Reverse Repo Rate (%)
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
RupeeWeekly Price Performance
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.8 percent on a weekly basis.
Rupee was the worst performing currency in Asia in the last week.
Last Weeks Snapshot
The Rupee touched a lifetime low of 58.985 in the prior week on the back of
unfavorable industrial production and manufacturing output data.
Further, cut in the growth outlook of the economy to 5.7 percent by World Bank also
exerted downside pressure on the currency.
Additionally, weak global and domestic markets acted as a negative factor for the
Rupee.
During the end of the week, countrys inflation data came on a positive note which
provided some respite to the free falling and sharp depreciation of the Indian Rupee.
FII Inflows
For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.1,457.70 crores ($244.39 million)
as on 14th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.81,747.40
crores ($15,108.60 million) till 14th June 2013.
Outlook
With no immediate pullback in stimulus measures from the Fed, the Dollar Index is
expected to weaken.
On the back of this, we expect the Rupee to trade with an appreciation bias during theweek.
Weekly Technical Levels
USD/INR Support 56.70/55.90 Resistance 58.60/59.80. (CMP: 57.85)
53.0
54.0
55.0
56.0
57.0
58.0
59.0
$/INR - Spot
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Dollar Index (DX)
Weekly Price Performance
US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 1.2 percent in the last week.
The DX began the week on a negative note on uncertainty over the Fedregarding its bond buying program.
Last Weeks Snapshot
Expectations over a withdrawal of the Federal Reserves stimulus measures
is driving market sentiments.
However, to a large extent this has been factored in and in case the Fed
does not show any indication of a pullback in this weeks FOMC statement
then, the DX could witness downside pressure.
A sudden pullback in the bond-buying programme could be detrimental for
the world financial markets and the Federal Reserve is expected to take a
slow approach for the same.
The DX has been influenced a lot by the movement and the volatility in the
Yen
Factors that influenced downside movement in the DX
Favorable retail sales and jobless claims data from the US.
Further, expectations of Fed keeping interest rates lower added downside
pressure on the currency.
Outlook The currency will take cues and direction from the Federal Reserves
statement and announcement.
Weakness in the DX could be seen over the week if the Federal Reserve does
not give a clear picture of its stimulus withdrawal plan.
Weekly Technical Levels
US Dollar Index: Support 80.00 / 79.50 Resistance 81.0/81.60. (CMP:
80.72)
79.0
80.0
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
US Dollar Index
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Euro
Weekly Price Performance
The Euro appreciated 0.9 percent last week, touching a weekly high of 1.339.
Factors that influenced upside movement in the Euro
Weakness in the DX.
Further, favorable industrial production data from the region supported an
upside in the currency.
During the later part of the week cut in the growth outlook by the World Bank
restricted sharp positive movement in the currency.
World Bank has forecasted that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Euro
Zone region will contract by 0.6 percent for the current year.
The bank also estimates that growth in the region will decline by 0.1 percent in
2013.
Outlook
With new infrastructure investment spending in Italy, we expect a positive
sentiment towards the Euro Zone.
Since this new spending plan is expected to boost the job market, we expect the
Euro to trade higher during the week.
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.3303 / 1.3216 Resistance 1.3430/1.3520. (CMP:
1.3341)
1.275
1.285
1.295
1.305
1.315
1.325
1.335
1.345
1.355
1.365
Euro/$ - Spot
69.0
70.0
71.0
72.0
73.0
74.0
75.0
76.0
EURO/INR - Spot
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Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Chana prices remained firm last week on account good buying at lower levels.
Supplies are gradually declining as farmers have started sowing kharif crops
with the timely onset of monsoon. Chana spot as well as July futures settled 1.64% and 0.19% lower w-o-w.
IMD forecast normal monsoon for 2013
IMD in its Second Long Range forecast predicted normal monsoon at 98
percent of the Long Period Average. Monsoon is predicted 94% of its LPA over
North-West India, 98% over Central India, 103% over South Peninsula, and 98%
over North-East India all with a model error of 8 %.
Normal monsoon to boost Kharif Pulses sowing
Smooth progress of Monsoon has increased the prospects of sowing of kharifpulses. Pulses are mainly grown in the western and southern belts of India.
Chana output estimated at record high - Third Advance Estimates
According to the third advance estimates released last week, Chana output is
pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance
estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11
record of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13.
Seasonal pattern to restrict further downside in the prices
Chana prices tend to follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline during
the harvesting period (Apr-May) and bottom out when arrivals reach their peak
in the month of May. Thus, taking cues from seasonality pattern , chana prices
are set to recover from the current month (June as arrival will decline gradually.
Outlook
Chana prices may trade range bound with upward bias as demand is strong at
current price levels while arrivals have started declining. Good sowing prospects
of kharif pulses may cap sharp gains in the prices.
Weekly Strategy
Buy NCDEX CHANA July between 3200-3190, SL -3140, Target - 3280 / 3290
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Turmeric
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Turmeric July Futures opened the week on a negative note and touched a fresh
contract low of` 5266 per quintal on the back of huge carryover stocks coupled
with weak demand. However, prices bounced back on account declining arrivalscoupled with lower level buying.
The spot settled 2.5% lower while the July futures settled 0.39% higher w-o-w.
Weak exports
Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn. (Source Factiva)
Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season
Production of turmeric declined in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as
well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. in 2012
was reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered was lower as compared tothe preceding year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Sowing was
reported to be 30-35% lower compared to the previous year.
Lower production in the 2012-2013 season
Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last
year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported
at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.
Outlook
Turmeric prices may trade on a mixed note this week. Bargain buying at lowerlevels are expected to support prices. Export demand may emerge at lower levels
ahead of Ramadan. Declining arrivals coupled with closure of markets for five
days as declared by Erode Turmeric Merchants Association may also support
prices. However, huge carryover stocks may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices.
Arrivals of monsoon may also lead to improvement in sowing.
Weekly Strategy NCDEX Turmeric July Trend Sideways- S1 - 5350, S2 - 5150 R1- 5800, R2 - 6050.
Monday | June 17, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Jeera
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Jeera traded on a mixed note last week. Good arrivals coupled with higher
production estimates have pressurized prices. However, improvement in overseas
demand supported prices at lower levels. About 25-30% of the new crop fromGujarat has already been exported to Singapore, Europe & Dubai.
The spot as well as the July Futures settled 0.28% and 0.1.15% lower w-o-w.
Second consecutive year of higher output
Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher
than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply
concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices
and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.
Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86% (Source Factiva).
The ongoing tensions in Syria and Turkey, coupled with output concerns has led to
supply concerns, and thus, exports have been diverted to India.
International Scenario
According to reports, production in Turkey is reported around 8,000-10,000
tonnes while production in Syria is expected to be lower, raising supply concerns
in the international markets.
Currently, Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,450/tn
(FOB Mumbai).
Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note this week. Prices may recover from lower levels
on expectations of emergence of overseas demand at lower levels. Arrivals may
also decline in the coming days. However, higher production figures this season
may cap sharp gains and pressurize pries from higher levels. Good progress of the
monsoon may also limit the upside in the prices.
Weekly Levels
NCDEX Jeera July Trend Sideways- S1 - 13350, S2 - 13570, R1- 12950, R2 - 12700.
Monday | June 17, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Soybean
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Weekly price performance
Soybean futures continued to rise for the second consecutive week and settled 2.4%
higher w-o-w on account of tight supplies in the domestic markets. However,
commencement of sowing amidst good progress of monsoon capped the upside. CBOT Soybean Futures declined 0.77% w-o-w on prospects of a record crop in the
coming season. However, tight soybean stocks supported prices at lower levels.
Commencement of Kharif Sowing
Sowing of kharif oilseeds such as soybean, groundnut, sesame and castor has
commenced in various parts of the country and is expected to gain momentum in
the coming days. Good monsoon progress is also expected to boost the acreage.
India's soy meal Exports Fall by 57 Percent during FY13-14 SEA
Indias soy meal exports for the month of May 2013 were 96,492 tonnes, lower by32.33 percent from 142,588 tonnes a year ago.
USDA Crop Outlook
The U.S. Department of Agriculture report kept US Soybean output expectations at
3,390 mn bushels, unchanged as compared to its earlier forecast in May. Also, net
weekly soybean export sales totaled 480,600 tons. Global oilseeds output in 2013-14
is expected to decline to 490.83 mn tn compared to 491.34 mn tn forecast in May.
US Soy planting- 71% complete
According to the USDA weekly crop report, Soybean planting is 71% completecompared to 57% last week. However, it is lower than 5 years average of 84% and
said to be the slowest in 17 years. The delay is attributed to heavy rains in the US
Midwest.
Outlook Soybean is expected to trade higher on account of tight supplies in the domestic
markets. However, good progress of the monsoon, expected improvement in the
acreage as well as weak international markets may pressurize prices at higher levels.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Soybean July between 3810-3790, SL -3720, Target - 3930 / 3950.
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Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Weekly price performance
Edible oils continued to trade higher on account of good demand ahead of
Ramadan. A sharp depreciation in the Rupee also supported an upside in theprices. Ref Soy oil on NCDEX as well as CPO prices at MCX settled 0.50% and
1.52% higher w-o-w.
Global Scenario
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for June 1-15 rose 15.7 percent to
707,148 tonnes, compared with 611,277 tonnes shipped during May 1-15.
Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export
tax for July at 4.5 percent, unchanged since march
Domestic Scenario
As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India
Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn
in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports.
India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5
percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837
tonnes of refined palm oil in May.
Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted
before the new planting season for soybean.
Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body
said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher
side despite the decline in monthly imports.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Ref Soy Oil July between 695-693, SL -688, Target - 702 /704
(CMP 698.30)
MCX CPO June between Support 1 - 492, Support 2 - 487 and Resistance 1-
502,Resistance 2 - 508
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Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Sugar prices remained flat as good progress of monsoon in the drought ridden
state of Maharashtra has eased some concerns over output. This may offset lower
planting to some extent.
Liffe Sugar recovered from lower levels last week on account of short coverings.
Prices have declined sharply on account of 3rd year of global sugar surplus.
Sugarcane acreage down 10 percent as on 14th June
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 42.09
lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and
Karnataka have reported lower area.
After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to
decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings.India sugar reserves at five-year high set to avert imports
Sugar inventories in India, are poised to surge by 37% to 9.2 million tonnes at the
start of October, a five-year high as exports halt because of slumping global
prices. Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4
million tonnes in 2011-2012.
Brazil's CS sugar output up 40 percent yoy
Sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil's main center-south cane belt made strong
progress harvesting record crop through mid-May, producing more than twice the
amounts of sugar and ethanol than they did from last season's smaller cane crop.
Mills in the region benefited from dry weather in late April and early May and
produced mn tn of sugar, up 40 percent from a year ago.
Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to remain firm this week on account of good demand
from the stockist coupled with expected lower output this season. However,
sharp upside maybe capped tracking smooth monsoon progress.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX SUGAR July between 3095-3085, SL -3050, Target - 3160 / 3180.
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Kapas/Cotton
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
MCX Cotton prices gained for fourth straight week and settled higher 2.2% on
account of thin supplies to meet the demand from yearn manufacturer. Firm
international markets also supported an upside in the prices. ICE Cotton futures gained 7.5% w-o-w as U.S. government cut its inventory forecast
more than expected .
Kharif Cotton Planting Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 15.85 lakh ha as against 15.72 lakh ha during
the same period last year. Planting is almost complete in North India and sowing in
Punjab and Haryana declined marginally.
Andhra Pradesh has reported a higher area of 1.13 lakh ha under cotton, while in
Karnataka the acreage is up by about half a lakh hectares at 1.26 lakh ha.
Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing
CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season
compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to
go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales.
USDA reduces U.S. cotton production, global stocks projections
According to USDA monthly crop report released last week, U.S. cotton stocks will
reach their lowest level in 3 years in 2013-14, as it reduce US production forecast.
Global inventories will reach a record of 92.49 million bales next year, though that
was slightly reduced from the USDA's May forecast of 92.74 mil lion bales. More than two-thirds of the global carryover is expected to become part of China's
stocks, where inventories will total 58.93 million bales by the end of July 2014.
Outlook
Upward trend in Cotton may continue this week as lower supplies in the domestic
markets along with cut in global cotton inventories may support prices. Good
monsoon may however, cap sharp gains in the prices.
Strategy
Buy MCX Cotton June between 19100-19050, SL -18770, Target - 19550 / 19600
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Thank You!
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | June 17, 2013
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