APWA NC
Leadership and Management Conference
August 3, 2018
J.D. Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP [email protected]
Communicating Reliability, Risk, and Resiliency
to Decision Makers
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Five Key Points
1. Communicating technical information is different than
communicating for marketing or political purposes
2. Have empathy for the decision maker
3. Have endless respect for the decision maker
4. Group effects are especially important for strategic
decisions with complexity and uncertainty
5. Less is more – its about the decision maker, not you
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Our Report
• Executive Summary with Root Causes
• Background (3/4 page)
• Problem Statement (1 sentence)
• Methodology (1 page)
• Primary and Secondary Causes
– Summary(1/4 page)
– Discussion (1 page)
– Contributing Factors (2 pages)
• Recommended Actions (1 sentence)
6 Pages of Text and 4 one-page Attachments
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Detailed Attachment
• Two simple attachments
• One moderately complex
attachments
• One very detailed
attachment (FMEA)
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Decisions and Decision Making
• Intuitive, Common Sense, a priori, System 1
– Risk: Intuitive and Common Sense
– Planning: Limited
– Decision: Run! (Operational)
• Analytical, Statistical, a posteriori, System 2
– Risk: Analytical and Statistical
– Planning: Long time period, people and numbers
– Decision: Thoughtful and Measured (Strategic)
A Decision: An irrevocable (or irreversible) choice among alternative ways to allocate resources.
Source: SDG
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Reliability, Risk and Resiliency
• Reliability is the probability that an item will perform its intended function for a specified interval under stated conditions.1
• Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. An effect is a deviation from the expected – either positive or negative.2
• Resiliency is the ability to return to the original form or state after being after being bent, compressed, or stretched or the ability to recover return to the desired state readily following the application from some form of stress such as illness, depression, or adversity.3
1 MIL-STD-721C (1981) and O’Connor et al; 2 ISO 31000-2009; 3 ASCE
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Most People Do Not Understand
Probabilities
Understanding weather forecasts, or “the chance of rain”.
A. The percent of area over which precipitation will fall
B. The percent of time precipitation will be observed on the forecast day
C. The amount of days similar to this one when it actually rains
D. The amount of rain that will fall
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Best Practice
• Frequency (87 of 234 cases) is preferable
to percentages (37.2%)
• Frequency also gives insight into
“confidence interval”
• Usually best to present both frequency and
percentage
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Ethics, Decision Making, and a
Normative Approach
Virtue
Socrates, Aristotle
Deontological
Immanuel Kant
Consequentialism
John Stuart MillJeremy Bentham
Individuals Matter
“Golden Rule”
Absolutes
Consequences Matter
“Ends justify the means”
Good:
Love, Joy, Peace, Patience, Kindness, Goodness,
Faithfulness, Gentleness, Self-control
Bad:
Fornication, Impurity, Licentiousness, Idolatry,
Sorcery, Enmity, Strife, Jealousy, Anger, Selfishness,
Dissension, Party Spirit, envy, Drunkenness,
Carousing, and the like
Source: Paul’s letter to the Galatians
Virtue:
Source: Aristotle
Virtue:
Courage, Temperance, Liberality, Magnificence,
Magnanimity, Proper, Ambition, Patience,
Truthfulness, Wittiness, Friendliness, Modesty,
Righteous Indignation
Vice:
Rashness, Licentiousness, Prodigality, Vulgarity, Vanity,
Ambition, Irascibility, Boastfulness, Buffoonery,
Obsequiousness or flattery, Shyness, Envy
Source: Aristotle
“Do not do to others what you would
not want them to do to you.” –
Judaism
“Whatever you want people to do to
you, do also to them.” - Christianity
“One should not behave toward
others in way that is unpleasant for
oneself; that is the essence of
morality.” – Hinduism
“A state that is not pleasant or
enjoyable for me will also not be for
him; and how can I impose on another
a state that is not pleasant or
enjoyable for me?” – Buddhism
“None of you is a believer as long as
he does not wish his brother what he
wishes himself.” – Islam
“What you yourself do not want, do
not do to another person.” –
Confucianism
Source: Daniel Vallero, Socially
Responsible Engineering, 2007
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Principles of Graphical Excellence
Graphical excellence is:
• the well-designed presentation of
interesting data – a matter of substance,
of statistics, and of design.
• consists of complex ideas communicated
with clarity, precision, and efficiency.
• that which gives to the viewer the greatest
number of ideas in the shortest time with
the least ink in the smallest space.
• nearly always multivariate.
• requires telling the truth about the data.
www.edwardtufte.com
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
6 Principles of Graphical Integrity
1. The representation of numbers, as physically measured on the surface
of the graphic itself, should be directly proportional to the numerical
quantities represented.
2. Clear, detailed, and thorough labeling should be used to defeat graphical
distortion and ambiguity. Write out explanations of the data on the
graphic itself. Label important events in the data.
3. Show data variation, not design variation.
4. In time-series displays of money, deflated and standardized units of
monetary measurements are nearly always better than nominal units.
5. The number of information-carrying (variable) dimensions depicted
should not exceed the number of dimensions in the data.
6. Graphics must not quote data out of context.
Source: Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Essential Graphics When
Communicating to Decision Makers
• Pictures
• Geospatial Depictions
• Time Series Charts
• Tables
• Tornado Diagrams
• Guiding Graphics
Keep them simple and concise
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Pictures and Thermography
Photos 2&3: The temperatures of gearbox are very high (200 degrees F on #6 and 193 degrees F on #2).
The temperature was far above the temperature of the other gearboxes. Oils tend to break down
quickly unless specifically designed to operating in extremely high temperature equipment.
Photo 1: Belt slippage and overheating
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Tornado Diagram: Water Supply
Reservoir and WTP
There is not a “right” way or “wrong” way to communicate technical information.
Do what it takes to be truthful and effective.
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Assessment of
Economic Development Project
Discounted Cumulative Cash Flow – Year 1 - 11
+$$
-$$
Increasing
Cumulative
Cash Flow
Breakeven Point
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Comparative Graphics can often be more efficiently understood by receiver
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
A Guiding Graphic Are Important
With Problems
Adaptive Management: “learn as you go”
So where are we? And where are we going?
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Burden is on the Sender
• Sender, Receiver, Message
• Burden is on the Sender
• Reduce Signal-to-Noise Ratio
• Endless Respect for your Audience
• Don’t theorize about mode of presentation production and need/IQ of audience
• Not about “right” or “wrong” in terms of types of presentations
• Graphics are not always needed
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Forms of Communication
Sensory and Perceptual
Lay Public or General Population
Interpretive and Verbal
Attorneys and Policy Makers
Interpretive and Symbolic
Engineers, Scientists, Technologists
Source: Green, 1989; Myers & Kaposi, 2004; Vallero, 2007
Forms of Communication are one of four major sources of noise
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Potential Sources of Noise
1. Forms of Communication
– Sensory and Perceptual
– Interpretive and Verbal
– Interpretive and Symbolic
2. Communication Forums
– Internal and External Team Meetings
– Public Speaking
– What the Media Wants
– What Elected Officials Want
3. Attempting to appeal too much to
sensory perceptions
– Colors as an example
4. Patterns of Communication
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Personality Profiles
In workshops, we discuss four approaches and tools
1. DISC
2. Myers-Briggs
3. Handwriting Analysis
4. Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP)
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Groups: Complex Decisions
Under Uncertainty
• There are compelling social reasons for group cooperation.
• Individuals also simply have too many information processing
biases and physical limitations to solve certain types of problems.
• We simply cannot avoid the reality that involving a cross-functional
group of experts is the best way to ensure quality decision making.
• Maybe less obviously, reinforcement through group involvement is
very important to most individual decision makers when coping with
uncertainty and complexity.
Source: Paul Shoemaker
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Group Behavior: Loyalty
• The values and objectives that guide individual decision in organizations are largely the organizational values and objectives.
• It does not really matter whether these are expressed or implied.
• Initially, these are usually imposed by the exercise of authority on the individual.
• However, the values and objectives gradually become internalized and are incorporated into the psychology and attitudes of the individual participant.
• This conditioned loyalty becomes a hurdle for effective communications and decision making related to complex problems with uncertainty. – On one hand, it assures protection of the organization from outside forces.
– On the other hand, it is one reason why change is hard and good decisions related to complex problems are so difficult.
Source: Herbert Simon
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Group Behavior: The Planning Fallacy
• Used to describe the plans, forecasts, and decisions made by groups that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios
• Normally these could be improved by reviewing statistics of similar cases.
• The simple example in practice is despite the technical recommendations provided to the group, a project has a budget, schedule, and quality of deliverables that exceeds what has ever been delivered before.
• The group ignores the data and expert opinion and talks themselves into an overly optimistic and unachievable plan.
• The Planning Fallacy happens more often than not in all types of group settings.
• One solution is the “outside view”, but even then the group must listen.
Source: Kahneman
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Group Behavior: Dialogue Decision Process
• Especially important for decisions with complexity and uncertainty
• Different than a traditional, and flawed, advocacy approach
• YOU may not be the best person to get the decision maker to the decision!
• No surprises! No Great Reveal!
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Talking Too Long
Presenting too much information that is not relevant to
decision maker
• Start with “abstract”
• Problem, who cares (relevance), what to do about it (action/solution)
• Know when it is time too leave; less is usually more
“John Thompson, hatter, makes and sells
hats for ready money”
Story told by Ben Franklin to Thomas Jefferson while
drafting the US Declaration of Independence
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Handling Audience Questions
• Always repeat the question
• Watch your body language
• Break away from the questioner
• Stick with what you know
• Be brief
• Pass the buck when appropriate
• Stay on message
• Verify you answered the question
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Empathy for Your Decision Maker
• Strategic decisions are characterized by high degrees of complexity and uncertainty
• Our decision makers believe that they are making the biggest decisions of their lives or careers
• It DOES NOT matter how simple, routine straightforward, or logical that the trusted advisor believes the decision is
• Success depends on finding empathy for the decision maker, and being able to communicate on those terms
It is about the decision maker. It is not about you.
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
Five Key Points
1. Communicating technical information is different than
communicating for marketing or political purposes
2. Have empathy for the decision maker
3. Have endless respect for the decision maker
4. Group effects are especially important for strategic
decisions with complexity and uncertainty
5. Less is more – its about the decision maker, not you
JD Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP
For More Information
• Webinars and Workshops:
1-hour, and 4- and 8-hour workshops
• Amazon.com:
Print or Kindle version of book
• Website: www.reliabilityriskresiliency.com
APWA NC
Leadership and Management Conference
August 3, 2018
J.D. Solomon, PE, CRE, CMRP [email protected]
Communicating Reliability, Risk, and Resiliency
to Decision Makers