Contributing to sustainable development in Vietnam
Downscaled climate projections workshop - Melbourne, 12 December 2012
Wendy Conway Lamb, AusAID
Context: Why are we doing this project?
Australian aid program goals
AusAID-CSIRO Alliance
Australia Vietnam joint aid
program strategy
High resolution downscaling project goals
Australian aid program goals
MDGs
Aid Program
Goal
Helping people to overcome poverty
MDG 7 – Ensure environmental sustainability
MDG 8 – Develop a global partnership for development
Aid Program Strategic
Goals
Saving lives
Promoting opportunities
for all
Sustainable economic
development
Effective governance
Humanitarian and disaster
relief
Development objective
no. 8
Reducing the negative impacts of climate change and other
environmental factors
Using science to deliver more effective aid
1. Build the evidence base for responding to complex challenges (including climate change)
2. Inform development decisions and planning, to improve livelihoods of poor people
3. Build Australia’s effectiveness as a global partner in research for development
AusAID-CSIRO AllianceResearch for Development (R4D)
Australia Vietnam joint aid program strategy 2010-2015
Human resource development
Economic integration (including infrastructure)
Environmental sustainability (including climate change, water & sanitation)
Human resource development
Economic integration (including infrastructure)
To achieve this goal, we will
Aid program’s approach to climate change in Vietnam
Australia supports the Government of Vietnam in the development and implementation of its climate change response that builds community resilience
and promotes low carbon growth
Build Community Resilienceby working at the community level (in
partnership with NGOs and local government) to strengthen communities’ ability to respond
and adapt to climate change, including climate-related disasters
Promote Low-Carbon Growthby working with government to identify low-
carbon approaches to development, including the identification of mitigation
options with strong development co-benefits (such as energy efficiency)
Enabling Vietnam’s Climate Change Responsethrough assistance to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change, identify
practical approaches to respond, and policy dialogue to help prioritise investment & institutional reform
Integrating Climate Change Across the Vietnam Program
supported by
Vietnam is vulnerable: Addressing climate change is key to ensuring Vietnam’s development gains are not undone and food security is guaranteed for millions of its people
Rationale for this project
Consultations (early 2011)
Identified need to better understand climate change effects at local level
Government of Vietnam policy
Requires all provinces to develop climate change action plans under the NTP-RCC
Challenge: how to plan and prioritise?
Significant uncertainties around climate change impacts: what / where / when
Opportunity costs: every $ / VND spent on adaptation could have been spent elsewhere
Experience
Govt of Vietnam requested assistance to build on the downscaling work they had started
CSIRO has undertaken similar downscaled projection work in Indonesia and Pacific
1. Improve Vietnam’s understanding of the impacts of climate change
2. Integrate past and current research for a more complete assessment of the potential effects of climate change
3. Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and investment to adapt to climate change
4. Develop innovative communications tools to ensure the data generated are widely available
Aims of the project
to…
?
How to get from…
• Information only of value if it leads to better understanding, decisions, actions…
Role of climate data in development
Steve Easterbrook, adapted from Russ Ackoff’s ‘From Data to Wisdom’ (1989)
1. Ownership by the stakeholders who need to understand and use the information
Representatives of Government of Vietnam actively involved (and here today)
Aligns with Government of Vietnam’s own priorities and institutional structures
Developed in response to an identified and agreed need
Key element of the program is capacity building, so that the approach will be sustainable
How to get from climate projections to better planning and investment?
2. Partnership between knowledge generators and those who will use the knowledge
Not working in siloes: scientists and decision-makers need to understand each other and work together
That is the premise of the AusAID-CSIRO R4D Alliance: each can add value.
Australia’s role in ‘Asian Century’: one-way relationship between donor and recipient not constructive
Australia can learn from Government of Vietnam: science institute embedded in the ministry
Draw on a range of partnerships with others, including within the Australian Government, with other donors (e.g. GIZ and the ADB), NGOs and research institutions.
3. Delivering and communicating results
Not just about telling story to media and securing funds.
Good communication:
facilitates ongoing learning and improvement
focuses the project on achieving results
helps ensure decisions are evidence-based
builds trust and support among stakeholders
allows others to build on and replicate the methodology: so the benefits are sustained
A major factor for success will be how the results are translated into guidance to help decision-makers identify and prioritise adaptive strategies in their development planning and budgeting
Welcome development of Communications Strategy
Accra Agenda for Action (AAA, 2008):
1. Ownership
2. Inclusive partnerships
3. Delivering results
This project upholds these principles:
1. Government of Vietnam requested this project and is strongly engaged in implementing it
2. Partnership between governments, and between scientists, decision-makers and beneficiaries
3. Focus on achieving, communicating and learning from results
These 3 themes reflect internationally agreed principles of aid effectiveness
What is the role of climate change knowledge in developing adaptive capacity?
Risk of linear thinking:
problem > development intervention > solution
Won’t work in tackling climate change:
• already committed to around 1.5 – 2 C⁰
• 2 C: between ‘dangerous’ and ‘manageable’⁰
• low probability of staying below 2 C⁰
• 3-4 C by 2060-2070 is very likely⁰
• at current rate > 4.5 C by 2100 (⁰ bleak)
!! 4 C requires transformative change !!⁰
Challenge of incorporating climate change knowledge in development planning
Adaptation responses: coping vs transformative change
Climate change
impacts
AdaptiveresponseAutonomous coping
(resistance)Resilience Transformative
change
Autonomouscoping in new state
business-as-usual development, or
incremental efforts to adapt to short-term changes based on past experience
i.e. “maladaptation”
= adaptation efforts that unintentionally increase vulnerability by:
• increasing greenhouse gas emissions
• disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable
• having high opportunity costs
• reducing incentives for autonomous adaptation
• generating path dependency (stranded assets)
(Barnett & O’Neill, 2010)
Without an understanding of future climate change scenarios, there is a risk of:
Downscaled climate projections help tell us:
what / when / where
(impacts)
We need to work together – scientists, beneficiaries, development practitioners, political decision-makers – to figure out:
how
(adaptation)
Ultimate goal, to avoid this…
And with the help of these…
And some of this…
… Achieve this:
Poverty reduction and sustainable development
Thank you