vendredi 7 mai 2010
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Cooperating with Neighbours - Regional
Integration in Southeast Asia
Seminar on Challenges in Cooperation and Communication
for Development in Southeast Asia
Hanoi, 26-27 April 2010
Kiichiro Fukasaku Development Centre
OECD Development Centre
Presentation
• What are the current dynamics of economic integration in Southeast Asia?
• What impact has the global economic crisis on it?
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vendredi 7 mai 2010
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OECD Development Centre
The region’s economic landscape in 5 years’ time will not be the same as today:
The centripetal force taking ASEAN economies closer towards a more unified market; and
The centrifugal force getting them closer to the global market
The global financial and economic crisis has made regional economic integration even more important in Southeast Asia
Effective development co-operation and communication
Key Messages
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OECD Development Centre
AFTA >>> AEC
East Asia FTA (ASEAN+3)
CEPEA
(ASEAN+6)
Trans-Pacific Strategic EPA
(TPP/ P4)
ASEAN-EU FTA
Regional Economic Landscape ASEAN with Important Partners
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OECD Development Centre
From AFTA to ASEAN Economic Community
1992 ASEAN Free Trade
Area (AFTA)
1995 ASEAN Framework
Agreement on Services (AFAS)
1997 ASEAN Vision 2020
1998 ASEAN Investment Area (AIA)
2001 Initiative for ASEAN Integration
(IAI)
2003 Bali Concord II
2004 Vientiane
Action Plan (VAP)
2006 AEC brought to
2015
2007 APSC & ASCC brought
to 2015
2008 ASEAN Charter
2009 Roadmap for an ASEAN
Community (2009-2015)
2010 Viet Nam’s
ASEAN Presidency
2015
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OECD Development Centre
ASEAN Economic Community
• A Single Market and Production Base
• A Highly Competitive Economic Region
• A Region of Equitable Economic Development
• A Region Fully Integrated into the Global Economy
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OECD Development Centre
Turning the Region’s Diversity into Opportunities
0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0
Viet Nam
The Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Myanmar
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Cambodia
Brunei Darussalam
0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000
Viet Nam
The Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Myanmar
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Cambodia
Brunei Darussalam
GDP per capita in 2009 (e) (US $ PPP)
Population in 2009 (p) (Million)
Sources: ASEAN Secretariat; IMF; (p) Preliminary; (e) Estimates
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OECD Development Centre
Net Aid Disbursement to ASEAN (Percentage of All Developing Countries)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ASEAN Total ASEAN-6 CLMV
Source: OECD 8
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OECD Development Centre
FDI Inflows in ASEAN and China (USD Billion)
P : Preliminary estimates based on UNCTAD FDI Database and national statistics Source: UNCTAD; CEIC; OECD Development Centre
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
China ASEAN-10
p
9
OECD Development Centre
Trade in ASEAN Priority Sectors (USD Billion, 2006-2008 Average)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
EX (blue) IM (red) Source: UN Comtrade; OECD/DEV
6 ASEAN Economies* China
* IN, MY, PH, SG, TH (2006-8 av.) VN (2006-7 av.) 10
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OECD Development Centre
Closer Integration in ASEAN and East Asia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1993 1998 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Progress in Tariffs Reduction (Average tariff rate under AFTA, %)
Source: ASEAN Secretariat; IMF/DOT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
ASEAN ASEAN+3 ASEAN+6
Share of Intra-regional Trade (Percentage of total trade)
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OECD Development Centre
ASEAN Trade with Selected Partner Countries (2006-2008 average, % share of total)
26%
11%
11%4%
3%2%0%
12%
11%
20%
Intra-ASEAN
China
Japan
Korea
Australia
India
New Zealand
EU
USA
ROW
Source: ASEAN Secretariat 12
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OECD Development Centre
Improved Market Access through FTAs
(No of agreements, as of January 2010)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Brunei
Darussalam
Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam
Proposed Under Negotiation Concluded
Source: ADB/ARIC database
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OECD Development Centre
Note: Annual percentage change in world real GDP and world trade volume in goods and services Source: IMF
Note: Annual percentage change in real GDP Source: ADB
14
The crisis hit Southeast Asia hard through trade links
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World output World trade volume
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Southeast Asia
vendredi 7 mai 2010
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OECD Development Centre
Growth rates differ across countries
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Brunei Darussalam Indonesia
Malaysia Philippines
Singapore Thailand
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cambodia Lao PDR
Myanmar Vietnam
Source: ADB 15
OECD Development Centre
Contributions to Real GDP Growth (Change relative to the previous year, %)
Source: CEIC 16
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OECD Development Centre
Malaysia Thailand
Share of Major Trading Partners
Relative to Total Export
Source: CEIC
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OECD Development Centre
ASEAN economies are well placed to emerge stronger from the global crisis, but development will likely be uneven across countries and sectors, unless necessary measures are taken:
Promote green growth;
Foster regional and sub-regional connectivity through infrastructure development;
Support the narrowing of the development gap within ASEAN;
Generate greater participation of the public in building the ASEAN Community
To Recap
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OECD Development Centre
• The Development Centre’s Governing Board consists of 39 countries of which 16 countries are non-OECD Members, including three Southeast Asian countries:
– Thailand (joined in 2005), Vietnam (2008) and Indonesia (2009)
• Partnership with ASEAN Secretariat:
• Closer cooperation:
Making Best Use of DEV Regional Networks and Expertise for the SEA Region
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OECD Development Centre
Thank you!
Contact: [email protected]
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Southeast Asian Economic Outlook: A Tool for Policy Dialogue
vendredi 7 mai 2010
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OECD Development Centre
ANNEX
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OECD Development Centre
MCM 2007
Informal Reflection Group on Southeast Asia Chair: EC Ambassador Coordinator: CCNM Participants: Delegations + OECD Directorates
OECD and Southeast Asia
1st OECD-Southeast Asia Regional Forum in 2007 (Jakarta) 2nd OECD-Southeast Asia Regional Forum in 2009 (Bangkok)
• CFE/ CTPA/ DAF/ ELS/ GOV/ STI • DEV (Regional Integration, SAEO)
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OECD Development Centre
Composite Leading Indicator Historical Diffusion Index China
Thailand Malaysia Indonesia
OECD Asian Business Cycle Indicators
Source: OECD 23
OECD Development Centre
SAEO 2010
• Regional Integration Landscape
• Macroeconomic Synchronisation
• Medium-term Growth Scenarios
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Part I: Regional Economic Monitor
• Transport Infrastructure and Regional Integration
Part II:
Thematic
Focus
vendredi 7 mai 2010
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OECD Development Centre
ASEAN
ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System AEC Scorecards (with ERIA)
OECD
OECD Input-Output Database for Economic Analysis (STI) Integration of ASEAN Priority Sectors (DEV)
SAEO: Regional Integration Landscape
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ADB: Asia Regional Integration Centre UNESCAP: Trade and Investment Division Home Page