Conference on Coral Reefs, Climate, & Coral BleachingJune 18 – 20, 2003, Turtle Bay Resort Hotel, Oahu, Hawaii
Coral reef conservation in a changing climate:Risk minimization and MPAs
Terry Done
Reef Futures [email protected]
a. Land-based Sources of Pollution
b. Overfishing
c. Lack of Public Awareness
d. Recreational Overuse and Misusee-1. Climate Change and Coral Bleaching
e-2. Disease
Climate Change and Coral Bleaching
A Focus Areas for US CRTF
The changing climate of coral reefs
temperatures (2 – 4oC hotter)
sea level(0.1 – 0.4 m higher)
atmospheric carbon dioxide(3 x more)
cyclone regimes(more extreme)
IPCC Predictions for this Century
US Coral Reef Task Force:
The National Action Plan
calls to strengthen the effectiveness of existing MPAs, and establish new MPAs where appropriate
•Do MPAs have a role in mitigating the effects of climate change?
•Where are the most appropriate places in a warming world?
ICRI believes MPAs do have a vital role as a measure to mitigate regional impacts of
climate changeRecommendations from ITMEMS 2 March 2003
Factor risk of bleaching impacts into management...
Support resilience of coral reefs through:good MPA design,
MPA networks and,reducing threats within management control.
Try to pick winners or simply spread the risk?
Design for a purpose….resilience
Impacts of hotter seasDecades
Weeks
Years
Mediumimpact
Catastrophicimpact
‘Collapsed’ (well grazed)
Very lowimpact
Weeks
RecoveryPoor Recovery
‘Bleached’ (alive)Dead
Mediumimpact
Very lowimpact
‘Bleached’ (alive)Dead
Catastrophicimpact
‘Collapsed’
Decades
Months
Resilience – physiological and ecological
‘Collapsed’ reef (under-grazed)
Poor Recovery Recovery
Physiolog-ically
Resilient
‘Bleached’ (alive)Dead
Ecologically Resilient
Settlement and growth of reef-
buildersWEAK STRONG
Not Resilient
GoodSettlement and growth of reef-
builders
Good MPA design and management
Ecological Resilience
An MPA network
Source of reef building larvae
‘Collapsed’ reef
Settlement
Good MPA design means collapsed reefs can rely on
neighbors for reef-building larvae
Growth
Good management provides good
environment for settlement and growth of reef
builders
may require local threat reduction
Try to pick winners or simply spread the risk?
Pattern of risk well known Pattern of risk poorly known
Risk of majorBleaching
High
Medium
LowAn MPA network
2000 2200 2240 2260 2280 2100
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
o C
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Year
High tech, high emissions
A1FI
High tech, low emissions
A1T2050
2100
2100
2050
IPCC projections for average global air temperatures
‘Buying time’ for our reefs Average global air temperature
Implications for coral reefs – depend on where
2070
24-29
29-3030–31>31
1990
2070
Joanie Kleypas John Guinotte
24-29
18–24 O C
29-3030–31
Sea Surface Temperature
… at a global scale…
The heat hazard –
summer of 2001-2 on the Great Barrier
Reef
~100 km
… and a regional scale…
Coastal
Offshore
The heat hazard –
summer of 2001-2
… and a local scale…
Different places have different level of future hazard
A1FI
A1T
Coastal reefMid-shelf and offshore reefs
Coastal reefs
Mid-shelf and offshore reefs
1
R. Jones, CSIRO
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
That was the hazard – what about the impacts?
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Outer shelf .
150 kmMid-shelf.
Depth (m)
0
100
200Coastal Offshore
150 kmMid -shelf
0
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
0
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
R. Berkelmans
5
4
3
2
1
Catastrophic
Medium
Very low‘Setback’
20 y
5 y
0 y
Catastrophic
Medium
Very low
……depends on the reef’s location, type and experience
Risk = hazard x negative consequences
Therefore there are two risk minimizing strategies
1. Minimize the hazard 2. Minimize the negative consequences
Risks to coral reefs – depends on where they are
(both hazard and vulnerability vary in space)
Risk – is changing as climate changes
Risk = probability of an unmanageable impact that negates management objectives
Flood - every 5 y COTS* - ‘never’Cyclone –every 15 y Bleaching – every 5 y
Flood - every 30 y COTS - every 15 y Cyclone – every 15 y Bleaching every 10 y
Flood ‘never’ COTS - ‘never’ Cyclone – every 15 y Bleaching – ‘never’
1990s
COTS*Crown of
Thorns Starfish
Risk – depends on where you are
1990s (2040s) Risk – changing with climate
Flood - every 5 y (?)COTS - ‘never’ (?)Cyclone –every 15 y (10 y)Bleaching – every 5 y (1 y)
Flood - every 30 y (15 y)COTS - every 15 y (?)Cyclone – every 15 y (10y)Bleaching every 10 y (3y)
Simulating probable future risks
010
10
20
30
40
30 50 70 90 110 130Exceedance of reef bleaching threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
2050
2010
2030
1990
Very Low Medium Catastrophic
CSIRO ReefClim
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
1990
20102030
2050
Very Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
1990
20102030
2050
Very Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
1990
20102030
2050
Very Low Low Medium High CatastrophicConsequences of a high tech future
… fossil fuel intensive
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Very Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Very Low Low Medium High CatastrophicVery Low Low Medium High Catastrophic … transition to low emissions
Coastal reef
… low emissions future
Different places – same emissions
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Very Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Very Low Low Medium High CatastrophicVery Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
Coastal reef 1990 2050
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Very Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Very Low Low Medium High CatastrophicVery Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
1990 2050
Offshore reef
C.Very Low Low Medium High Catastrophic
0
10
20
30
40
10 30 50 70 90 110 130
Exceedance of threshold (days)
Like
lihoo
d (%
)
Are some global regions and/or local reefs at lower risk?
Global climate change would be less of an issue at this place – do they exist?
Tools and data requirements:
•CSIRO ReefClim model•Daily(?) sea temperature (~ 10y)•local bleaching thresholds
Your reef?
What do increasing bleaching days per summer mean for coral communities? Appearance? Ecology?
Decades
Months
‘Collapsed’ reef (under-grazed)
WeeksYears
0
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
0
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
R. Berkelmans
0
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
0
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
80
60
40
20
Cum
ulat
ive
expo
sure
tim
e (d
ays)
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
28 29 30 31 32 Temperature o C
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
Mid-shelf reefCoastal reef
Offshore reef
-shelf reefCoastal reef
R. Berkelmans
20 y
10 y
5 y
3 y
0 y
20 y
10 y
5 y
3 y
0 y
10 y
5 y
1 y
.5 y
0 y
10 y
5 y
1 y
.5 y
0 y
Ecology Appearance‘Setback’
‘Setbacks’
‘Appearance’ (~coral cover)
-100
-50
0
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Prog
ress
Inde
x (y
ears
)
Higher emission scenarioLower emission scenario
1990 baseline
This global greenhouse gas emissions policy buys some time for this reef
Inde
x of
Ree
f Sta
te (Y
ears
)
ReefState 1.0
Median state(10,000 runs)
-100
-50
0
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Prog
ress
Inde
x (y
ears
)‘Ecology’ (coral cover + composition and size structure)
Same place, same scenarios
Higher emission scenarioLower emission scenarioIn
dex
of R
eef S
tate
(Yea
rs)
ReefState 1.0
More adaptive capacity
Local management that works
Needed: local management that works to foster resilience(I.e. effective MPAs and threat reduction)
The models match observations so far… reefs have tracked the 1990s’ baseline
19 01119 011
AIMS Long Term Monitoring Project
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
ReefState 2.0
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
driftSeaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
ReefState 2.0
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
Softs
Faviids
Pocilloporids
drift
SeaweedsSofts
Pocilloporids
Faviids
Staghorn thickets and plates
Porites heads and thickets
dynamic equilibrium
SeaweedsSofts
Pocilloporids
Faviids
Staghorn and table corals
Porites heads and thickets
dynamic equilibrium
1990 2020 2050
Hard coral cover
Management that has worked
(Benefit of hindsight!)
1990 2020 2050
100%
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Softs FaviidsPocilloporids
Poritesheads and thickets
phase shift
ReefState 2.0
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Softs FaviidsPocilloporids
Poritesheads and thickets
phase shift
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Softs FaviidsPocilloporids
Poritesheads and thickets
phase shift
ReefState 2.0
Seaweeds
Staghorn and table corals
Softs FaviidsPocilloporids
Porites heads and thickets
phase shift
Management that has
not workedHard coral
cover
Collapsed – ungrazed
SeaweedsSoft corals
Hard corals
Collapsed – heavily grazed
SeaweedsSoft corals
Hard corals
Avoid these
The challenge: without the benefit of hindsight..
Picking winners (lower cost, higherrisk strategy)
Most resilient
Not resilient
Monitoring
alone will not
give you the
answer!
Pick these
Needed to pick places that will be winners:
1. Identifying places with low hazard.
2. A realistic basis for using local ecological knowledge to rate individual reefs according to their likelihood of desirable versus undesirable future reef trajectories
• dynamic equilibrium•change in coral composition only (drift)•phase shift•collapse
…..using local ecological knowledgeHow post-bleaching impact surveys can help us pick winners
AIMS and CRC ReefJanice Lough
Craig Steinberg
Mike Mahoney
Mary Wakeford
Emre Turak
Ray Berkelmans
Stuart Kininmonth
Mary Wakeford
Madeliene Van OppenGlenn De’ath
Scott Wooldridge
Al Strong (NOAA)
William Skirving (NOAA)
John Guinotte (KU/JCU)
Rod Salm (TNC)
Paul Marshall (GBRMPA)
Roger Jones (CSIRO)
Peter Whetton (CSIRO)
Thanks to…
GREAT BARRIER REEFMARINE PARK AUTHORITY
The Nature Conservancy
~ 500 km Field access to GIS with high resolution SST maps and 10 year
satellite archive were invaluable to post-bleaching impact assessment
Cumulative heat stress summer 2001-2
Maximum heat stress summer 2001-2
Acclimatization regime1990s
1 km pixels
Index of summer heat
GIS was created for selection of assessment
sites
Normal Bleached Dead
Field assessments of sitesOne bar per site
Did the 2002 index of hazard (heat anomaly) explain the bleaching impact?
y = 9.3933Ln(x) + 29.4R2 = 0.4253
0102030405060708090
0 20 40 60 80Days >2SD above climatology
Ble
achi
ng im
pact
(%)
Summer 2002 heat anomaly index
Ble
achi
ng im
pact
inde
x
y = 9.3933Ln(x) + 29.4R2 = 0.4253
0102030405060708090
0 20 40 60 80Days >2SD above climatology
Ble
achi
ng im
pact
(%)
Summer 2002 heat anomaly index
Ble
achi
ng im
pact
inde
x • Interactions and conditional dependencies with other causative factors
• Inaccuracies in SST• Not the best index of
SST• Not the best index of
bleaching impact • Differences in
vulnerability of coral species and communities
Acclimatization regime?
No: there were…
Which locations passed the test of summer 2001-2?
15 1712 173 610
30
50
Low Med - High Low Med - High
No.
Site
s
Low Med - High
94 94
Low Med - High
Coral bleaching Coral mortality
Medium -High
Medium – Highimpact
Low impact
Medium – Highimpact
Low impact
Low Medium -High
Medium – Highimpact
Low impact
Medium – Highimpact
Low impact
LowLow Medium-High
resistant to climate-related coral bleaching?
What made those reefs resistant?Were they exposed to an anomaly?
A. May be overheated next time
B. Unlikelyto be
overheated
D. PoorlyAdapted
C. WellAdapted
LowHigh
Coral survival
GoodOceanography
Good Luck
Reason
YesNo
Places with reliable mixing with cool watersPlaces where strong flows resuspend sediments and increase shadingDeep reefs
‘Right’ history of acclimatization‘Tough’ coral communities presentPrevalence of heat resistantzooxanthellae genotypesSynergistic effects – location, type, history
Turbid water reefs Clear water reefs
Physical models of heat hazardW.Skirving and C.Steinberg
Acclimatization:Normal summertime averages from satellite SSTsM. Mahoney
Places with reliable mixing with cool watersPlaces where strong flows resuspend sediments and increase shadingDeep reefs
‘Right’ history of acclimatization‘Tough’ coral communities presentPrevalence of heat resistantzooxanthellae genotypes
Better explanatory power used in combination than when tested singly
Promising insights using a Bayesian approach
GIS proxies for mixing, cooling and acclimatization
Categories of coral community types and habitats
Places with reliable mixing with cool watersPlaces where strong flows resuspend sediments and increase shadingDeep reefs
‘Right’ history of acclimatization‘Tough’ coral communities presentPrevalence of heat resistantzooxanthellae genotypes
2. Remote sensing and GIS
mixinglowmediumhigh
31.334.034.7
sst1kmlowmediumhigh
34.133.932.0
communityKM1KM2KM3KM4
31.423.328.816.4
bleachHIGHLOWMEDIUM
25.935.238.8
deadHIGHLOWMEDIUM
30.531.038.5
sst50kmlowmediumhighextreme
22.624.227.925.3
cost100lowmediumhigh
36.935.727.3
habitatBACK RFCHANNELFRINGELAGOONOUT SLP
35.99.6221.816.716.0
What combination of
information best explained places where mortality was
low
Bayesian Belief Network combines:•Expert opinion•Learnt dependencies
A Mixing index using
current vectors depth
model
NOAA 50 km products hotspots, Degree
heating weeks
An Index for ease of mixing
with cool water from
100 m
AIMS 1 km SST products
Index for Acclimatization
regime
Index of bleaching for
‘sites’
Categories of reef habitat
and community type
Index of mortality for ‘sites’
1. Ecology and post-bleaching impact surveys
‘…reefs are deteriorating from coral bleaching and mortality due to warming
seas….’
‘…counteract these trends by adopting a number of risk minimising strategies.’
Statement from Second International Marine Ecosystem Management Symposium,
Manila, Philippines, March 24-27 2003
Thank you
Internal bioeroders
Fish, coral and coralline algae dominance
Turf algal dominance
Bleaching, coral predators, diseases
Sea urchin reduction with reduced fishing
Fleshy algae reduction with reduced fishing
Nutrients/organic matter and fishing
Sediments and fishing
Turf algal dominance
Various algae, heterotrophs and bioeroders
Pollution and fishing
Urchin diseases
Urchin recruitment
Large-scale sea urchin reduction with continued fishing
Small-scale sea urchin reduction with continued fishing
Fleshy algal reduction with continued fishing
Reduce fishing
Reduce fishing
Local conservation actions
(McClanahan,Polunin and Done)
Sea urchin and turf dominance
Fleshy brown algal dominance
Fishing