Cost Reduction for Offshore Wind Energy … a Vattenfall Perspective
Jens Madsen Head Wind R&D, Vattenfall AB
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Vattenfall Wind Power
5 countries
>1,000 wind turbines
50 turbine types (approx.)
1.9 GW installed (onshore + offshore)
>3.0 GW in 2016
82% of growth investments
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Cost of Energy focus
• Wind energy must be cost competitive to ensure continued growth - Onshore wind approaching grid parity in some markets - Offshore wind continues to be fully dependent on subsidies
• Eventually become financially viable without subsidies • Offshore concessions awarded through competitive auctions (lowest bidder)
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
The Offshore Wind Industry – Coming of Age
Source: The Future Of Vessels For Offshore Wind, Fred Olsen Wind Carrier, 2014, London
HR3
Infancy
Childhood Adolescence
Pro
ject
CA
PE
X (
£m/M
W)
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
LEC-total CAPEX
CAPEX
OPEX discounted
Finance
WTG package
BOP
Wind Turbine;
33%
Foundation/substructure;
22%
Electrical infrastructure;
12%
Logistics & Installation;
19%
Construction/Financing/
DevEx; 14%
Manhour of work
Spare parts
Consumerables
Tools & Cranes
Lost Production
Drivetrain 44% Generator System 21% Rotor System 8%
Source: Navigant (2013)
Source: Vattenfall internal
OPEX
CAPEX
Wind Power Cost Breakdown (typical)
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Flyvbjerg on Mega-projects*
10-year delay 1400 % cost overrun
On time On budget
* Projects with cost > 1$b and/or wide society impact
Nine out of ten mega-projects have cost overruns
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Does Offshore Wind projects fit Mega-project characteristics?
Mega-project Characteristics Offshore Wind
High degree of complexity + Large-scale, and geographical dispersed + Enormous budgets (over billions of euros) + Major impact on the environment and society (+) Can be subject of citizen resistance + Long planning horizons (+) Embedded in national political context, which can change over time + New and unproven technologies and legislation (+) Involvement of many stakeholders (complex interfaces) + Often unique at national level (+) High quality aesthetics
Consortia and sub-contracting to legally separate partners + Source: A.Marrewijk, “Organizing Mega-projects: Understanding their Cultural Practices” (2014)
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Cost Reduction … more than a Technical Challenge
• Financing solutions - Access to affordable capital
• Project management excellence
- Managing cost and risk - Steady pipeline of projects - Active use of lessons learned
• Industrialization
- Standardized technical solutions - Harvest benefits of scale in manufacturing,
installation, and operations
• Technical innovation • Courage to introduce innovative solutions • Drive towards Operational Excellence
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Offshore Clustering
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
O&M Synergies from Offshore Clustering
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Quantifying Global Wake Effects (Farm-Farm)
• AEP uncertainty means investment risk • Account for farm-farm interaction
• Global wake deficit, f(distance, size, ..)
• Validate models from operational data
• Quantify upstream blockage effect • Spatial planning within zones
• Farm clusters (example Horns Rev 1+2+3)
• Extension projects
Thanet
A.M. Striedlinger , TU Delft (2014): Wind Farm Effects on the Atmosphere
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Optimized cable routing
• Integer optimization problem • Minimize total cable cost with constraints
• Penalize cable crossing • Load flow restrictions (turbines/radial) • Max number of strings to substation
Layout Optimization (Collection Grid)
Manual cable routing
• Fixed WTG and Substation positions
• Two cable types: different capacity/cost
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
2 cable crossings 9% capex savings No cable crossings
Lessons Learned: Grouted Connections
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
• Insourcing of O&M work on Lillgrund, moving away from full OEM service concept
• OPEX reduced by 40%
• Time to service a turbine has reduced by more than 40%
• Same level of performance in terms of availability (>98%) and safety maintained
O&M Excellence
Lillgrund Wind Farm (SWE) – 48 x SWP 2.3MW
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Blade Reliability
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Romo iSpin Technology
• Technology rolled out across Vattenfall’s
Nordic onshore wind turbine portfolio (to date 69 wind turbines)
• Purpose: Monitor & correct wind turbine yaw misalignments, increase production, and reduce fatigue loads
• Ongoing R&D projects investigate using same technology for
• Power Performance testing • Turbine control (in-the-loop) • Ice detection
Focus on Performance Optimization
Yaw alignment optimization
Science Meets Industry, Bergen. 2015.09.15 -– Confidentiality: C1
Adam Ezzamel/ KFE (May 2015)
Concluding Remarks
• Offshore wind is beginning to deliver on cost targets
• Technology innovation must go hand-in-hand with Industrialization
• Joint R&D and technology demonstration is needed
Thanks for your attention !
Science