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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) and social conflicts
Veronika Gaube, Simron J. Singh,
Institute of Social Ecology, Klagenfurt University
In collaboration with:
H. Haberl, K.-H. Erb, F. Krausmann, S. Gingrich, C. Plutzar
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Overview
• HANPP: what, why and how?
– The integrated land system
– Measuring impacts of land use
• Data and methods
• Global HANPP 2000 – some results
• Conclusions: Q&A
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Land – a socioecological system
Socioeconomicsystem
Terrestrialecosystem
Purposive alteration – „colonization“
Flow of resources (biomass) and services
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
HANPP: measuring impacts of land use
HANPP measures
changes in yearly
biomass flows in
ecosystems resulting
from land use
Society
Resources gained
Work / energy invested
Natural ecosystem
Colonized systemChange inducedthrough
colonization
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
An integrated socio-ecological perspective on global biomass flows: The HANPP approach
Potential vegetation
NPP0
Productivity of potential vegetation
(hypothetical vegetationassumed to prevail in theabsence of land use; e.g., forests, grasslands, savannahs, deserts, shrubs, etc.
Actual vegetation
NPPact
Productivity of actualvegetation
(including croplands, grasslands, built-up area, etc.
NPP remaining afterharvest
NPPt
Energy remaining in the ecosystem afterharvest
Productivity change
(∆NPPLC)Harvest (NPPh)
Human approriation of NPP
(HANPP)
• Indicator of land-use intensity• ‚Pressure‘ indicator, useful to analyze
drivers of land use
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Human Appropriation of NetPrimary Production (Definition)
Ac
tua
lV
eg
eta
tio
n
Po
ten
tial
Veg
eta
tio
n
NPP
gC/m²/yr
Harv
es
t
NPPh
∆∆∆∆NPPLC
HANPP
NPPt
4
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010Annabella Musel| CEECEC Vienna Workshop | 23 Feb 09 | 7
Units
HANPP is expressed as:
� Material flows (biomass flows):basic unit = kg dry matter per year [kgDM/yr]
� Substance (carbon) flows:basic unit = kg carbon per year [kgC/yr]
� Energy flows:basic unit = Joule per year [J/yr]
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
The MEFA framework: Accounting for(impacts of) resource use
Dimensions of resource use Impacts
Materials Depletion of stocks
Emissions, wastes
Energy Risk (nuclear)
Climate change
Land Biodiversity
Landscape change
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Impacts of HANPP
• Changes patterns and processes in ecosystems, including biodiversity
• Alters stocks and flows of carbon in
ecosystems
• Affects biogeochemical cycles (water, nitrogen, etc.)
• Reduces the amount of trophic (=food)
energy available for all other species
than humans and their livestock
• May affect resilience and ecosystemservices such as self-regulating
capacity, buffering capacity, etc.
Potential vegetation
Actual vegetation
NPP remaining afterharvest
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Human Appropriation of NetPrimary Production
• A measure for the reduction of trophic (=food) energy available for all
other species than humans and their livestock
• Indicator for land use intensity
• HANPP can be directly related to socio-economic activities, thus
allowing preventive measures to lower human pressures on
ecosystems
• Empirical basis: Systematic and consistent data integration: land use
data, land cover data, data on socioeconomic metabolism
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
HANPP methods: Calculation approach forassessing global HANPP
• NPP0 (potential vegetation): LPJ-DGVM results (vegetation model)
• NPPh (harvest):
– Statistics on the national and subnational level
– Based on the international standard methodology for material and energy
flow accounting (MEFA).
– Flows not covered or underestimated by international statistics (e.g. biomass
grazed by livestock) assessed on basis of demand-driven modelling
approaches and regional estimates.
• NPPact (actual, after land use change):
– Mixed approaches, combining statistics and modelling approaches
– Conservative approach: in the absence of data, NPPact = NPP0
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Data integration: the land use model
NPP0: LPJ-DGVM
Non-used areas
Irrigation Degradation
NPPact
Erb et al., 2007 J Land Use Sci., 2:
191-224
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Summary of HANPP methods
NPPh
NPPact
NPP0
MFA Methods, basedon data fromagricultural and forestry statistics
HANPP component Data, methods Required expertise
Agricultural and forestry statistics
GIS (e.g., CORINE land cover)
Ecosystem modelingbased on climate and soil data; reconstructions of potential vegetation
Usual statisticalmethods
Statistical methodscombined with GIS expertise
Ecosystem modeling
GIS expertise
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Mappingglobal
HANPP2000
(a) Land-use induced changes in productivity (∆∆∆∆NPPLC)
(b) Aggregate HANPP (∆∆∆∆NPPLC plus harvest)
Haberl et al., 2007.
Proc. Natl. Acad.
Sci., USA 104,
12942-12947.
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Global HANPP 2000 – processes
∆∆∆∆NPPLC%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
NPP0 NPPact
[Pg
C/y
r]
HANPP%
9,6% ∆NPPLC
22,4% HANPP
dNPPlc
43%
Useful
harvest
39%
Backflows
to nature
10%
Human-
induced
fires
8%
∆∆∆∆NPPLC
Breakdown ofHANPP
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Global HANPP: towards an understandingof proximate and ultimate causes
Activities causing global HANPP
Cropping
51%
Grazing
22%
Forestry
10%
Infra-
structure
9%
Human-
induced
fires
8%
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Analysis of global HANPP patterns 2000
HANPP per person
0
1
2
3
4
5
Industrial core Transition
countries
Developing
countries
Global
average
[t C
/cap
/yr] HANPP per unit of GDP
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Industrial core Transition
countries
Developing
countries
Global
average
[kg
C/U
S$]
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Global HANPP 2000: A summary
• Global HANPP amounts to 24% (aboveground 29%)
• Agriculture is the most important driver:
– Cropping and grazing contribute three quarters to global
HANPP.
– Feeding of livestock consumes almost two thirds of the total
amount of biomass used by humanity
• Considerable regional variation of HANPP, mainly
depending on
– Consumption level (per capita HANPP in industrialized
countries is about twice that of developing countries)
– Population density
– Agricultural yields
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Geographical patterns of global HANPP[1]: HANPP per unit area and year
Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34.
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Population density
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Geographical patterns of global HANPP[2]: HANPP per capita and year
Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34.
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Future challenges
• Future biomass demand will surge:
– population growth (8-9 bill. 2050),
– surges in animal fractions in diet (strongly correlated with income),
– bioenergy strategies
• Supply side: Options/potentials for sustainable biomass utilization are
limited
– Land use expansion to areas with currently small HANPP (where? Amazon,
boreal regions? What about biodiversity endangerment?)
– Intensification of production (yield increases e.g. in agriculture)
– Gains in land-use efficiency: fostering the use of „backflows to nature“,
reducing fires, or productivity losses
– � all strategies may come at high socio-ecological costs: requires integrated
perspectives
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Conclusions
• HANPP work is policy relevant
– For example, HANPP suggests to proceed with caution with respect
to the promotion of biomass for energy provision (cascade utilization
instead of maximization of harvest)
• HANPP is directly linked to MFA-related methods
• HANPP calculations are devoid of any arbitrary weighting
methods/factors
• HANPP is a mature, robust, spatially explicit indicator of impacts
of resource use, in particular on ecosystems and biodiversity
– It can be calculated with reasonable effort and reasonable accuracy
– Comparable across space and time, in particular across countries
and over decadal to centennial time series
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010CEECEC Vienna Workshop| 27 Feb|
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HANPP as a socio-political tool within EE
1. Measure of pressure humans exert on environmentMeasure of changes in yearly biomass flows in ecosystems resulting from land use +
harvest
2. HANPP as an indicator for ecosystem servicesLoss of BiodiversityCarbon storage
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010CEECEC Vienna Workshop| 27 Feb|
25
HANPP as a socio-political tool within EE
3. Can be used to show resource distribution and
unequal exchange (Embodied HANPP)
Who appropriates HANPP flows most and at what cost?
Who controls them? In which form?
Who controls the land in terms of biomass production
(quantity)?
4. Measure of land-use intensity
How is land controlled in terms of quality?
Input of fertilizer, irrigation … > degradation
Who controls and regulates the quality of land
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010CEECEC Vienna Workshop| 27 Feb|
26
HANPP related indicators
� Money per unit of HANPP
Who earns this i.e. benefits from HANPP?
> Export of biomass and biomass goods
Who pays for HANPP? Valuation
E.g. degradation > loss of subsistence
� Embodied HANPP in products
related to lifestyle e.g. HANPP/product
Amount of consumption, what is consumed
> Unequal share of HANPP
� HANPP/area
Pressure on ecosystem
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
India
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Brazil
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
United Kingdom
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Saudi Arabia
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Thank you for your attentation!
For further questions please contact also:
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
HANPP and Biodiversity
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
HANPP and biodiversity: The species-energy hypothesis
• Hypothesis: The number of species is positively related to the flow of energy in an ecosystem.
⇒⇒⇒⇒ If humans reduce energy flow(e.g., through HANPP), thenspecies richness will decline.
• Notes– Can explain species diversity
gradient from equator to poles.
– Not undisputed. Competing(complementary) hypothesesexist (e.g., intermediatedisturbance hypothesis).
HANPP
Brown, J.H. (1981) Am. Zool. 21, 877-888.
Gaston, K.L. (2000) Nature 405, 220-227.
Hutchinson, G.E. (1959) Am. Nat. 93, 145-159.
Rapson, G.L. et al. (1997) J. Ecol. 85, 99-100.
Waide, R.B. et al. (1999) Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 30,257-300.
Wright, D.H. (1983) Oikos 41, 495-506.
Wright, D.H. (1990) Ambio 19, 189-194.
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Empirical studies support the HANPP / biodiversity hypothesis
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 202010
-2
4x10-2
Y = -1.975 +0.485 X
R² =0 .549, p < 0.0001
i)
all h
ete
rotr
op
hs
NPPt
0.1 1 10
1
10
100
Y =1.32916+0.69916 X-0.22962 X2
Adj. R2 = 0.69
bre
edin
g b
ird s
pecie
s r
ichness
NPPt [MJ/m²*a]
Case study 1: Correlation between NPPt
and autotroph species richness (5 taxa) on 38 plots sized 600x600 m, East Austria
Haberl et al., 2004, Agric., Ecosyst. & Envir. 102, p213ff
Case study 2: Correlation between NPPt and
breeding bird richness in Austria, 328 randomly chosen 1x1 km squares.
Haberl et al., 2005. Agric., Ecosyst. & Envir. 110, p119ff
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
LPJVegetation model for calculation of
potential Vegetation
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
LPJThe LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (Sitch et al., GCB, 2003)
Tra
ns
form
ed
by
pro
ce
ss m
od
ule
s i
nto
Climate, Soil, CO2
C budget, H20 Budget,Vegetation Composition
� 10 plant functional types
� competition, mortality, establishment
� fire, permafrost
� photosynthesis: coupled C and H2O cycles
� C allocation (funct. and struct. relations)
� Carbon pools: 4 in vegetation, 4 in litter/soil
� Full hydrology
AET
Ci
AET
Ci
crown area
height
fine roots
leaves
LAI
sapwoodheartwood
0-50 cm50-150 cm
stemdiameter
Sp
ace &
Tim
e L
oop
s
19
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
HANPP 1700-2000
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Understanding global HANPP dynamics: Towards a consistent time series 1700-2000
• Global reconstruction of land use/cover change: BIOME
300, etc.
• Biomass harvest / biomass use data are available 1910-
2000
• Yield data are available 1910-2000
• So far no reconstruction of NPP0 and NPPact
– NPP0: DGVM-simulation
– NPPact: needs to integrate land use, yield, degradation and crop
morphology (harvest index) data
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Global land-use change 1700-2000Biome 300 data
Klein Goldewijk, 2001. Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc. 15:417-433
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1970 1990
[Mio
. km
²]
Deserts and ice
Shrublands
Natural grasslands & tundra
Marginal cropland/grazing
Intensive cropland
Boreal forests
Temperate forests
Tropical forests
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Global wilderness areas 1700-2000
K.-H. Erb, unpublished draft results
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Yield increases of cereals*, 1920-2000
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
[t/h
a]
Germany Austria Czech Republic United States of America World
Source: FAOstat
* Weighted
average of
cereals
(excluding
maize, rice)
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Global biomass harvest 1910-2000
• Data sources:
FAO, Institute
Internationale de
Agriculture
• Total biomass
harvest grows
by a factor of 2.8
• Crops grow
fastest (factor
4.5), grazing
most slowly (1.9)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
191
0
192
0
193
0
194
0
195
0
196
0
197
0
198
0
199
0
200
0
[Pg
C/y
r]
Wood
Grazing
Residues
Crops
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Analysis of global biomass use1910-2000
per capita
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
Per
cap
ita b
iom
ass
use [
GJ/c
ap
/yr]
Industrial Core
Transition countries
Developing Countries
total
per unit of GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
Bio
ma
ss
us
e p
er
un
it o
f G
DP
[MJ
/19
90
US
$]
Industrial Core
Transition countries
Developing Countries
total
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Summary: Global HANPP 1700-2000
• Total biomass harvest increased more or less parallel to
population growth (1910-2000)
• Rising yields imply that HANPP per unit of biomass
harvested decreases ⇒ HANPP has probably risen at a
much lower rate than biomass harvest
• Climate change has probably increased NPP0 in the last
centuries (CO2 fertilization)
• Actual NPP is also driven by
– Land degradation
– Agricultural intensification
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Some features and principles of HANPP methods
• Measurement of flows (and potentially stocks) in physical
units
– Tons of dry matter biomass per year [t DM/yr]
– Tons of carbon per year [t C/yr]
– Joules per year [J/yr]
• Spatially explicit
– Existing database: c 10 x 10 km at the equator (5 min)
– Feasible for Europe: 1 x 1 km or even lower (€!)
• Fits perfectly with MFA-derived indicators
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Regional breakdown of global HANPP
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Industr
ial
core
Tra
nsitio
n
countr
ies
DC
Am
erica
DC
Afr
ica
DC
Asia
[Pg
C/y
r] dNPPlc
NPPh
ANPPt
21%
16%
15% 17%
36%
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ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Population density strongly influencesHANPP per hectare, but…
Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34.
(1) Yemen
(2) Qatar
(3) Kuwait
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
… HANPP per capita is smaller in denselypopulated countries
Krausmann et al., 2009 J. Land Use Sci., 4: 15-34.
(1) Yemen
(2) Qatar
(3) Kuwait
25
ADVANCED COURSE ON THE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS AND JUSTICE Summer School, 05.07.2010
Natural productivity potential constrainsHANPP per unit area and year
• HANPP is
constrained by
productive potential
in poor
environments
• In favourable
environments
socioeconomic
factors determine
the level of HANPP