Creative Systems Engineering
IEEE / INCOSE Presentation
Walter Sobkiw
November 17, 2009
Creative Systems Engineering
Content
• Introductions
• Path to the book
• Tools that started it all
• Some major themes
• Publishing approach
• University adventures
Creative Systems Engineering
Credentials
Creative Systems Engineering
Path
2005 2006
Carnegie Melon presentation
Walt creates SAT
NASA finds SAT
Analyzed Green Paper A European Strategy
for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy
Walt creates GDA
Published short story on Kindle
about Taffy
Creative Systems Engineering
Path
2007 2008
GDA Analyzed Stern Review:
The Economics of Climate
Change
GDA Analyzed U.S. Climate Change
Technology Program Strategic Plan
Realized popular media did not match the real work
Published on Kindle
INCOSE International Conference: System Engineering for the
Planet
Published Paperback
Creative Systems Engineering
Creative Systems Engineering
Tools that started it all
From SAT to GDA
Creative Systems Engineering
SAT Idea
Prelim Spec Doc
SAT Final Spec
ReportsUpdatesAuthors
PreviouslyManual
Inspections
• Lets machines do what they do well– search, count, filter, categorize, profile, visualize
• Lets humans do what they do well– creativity, critical thinking, inspiration, intuition
Creative Systems Engineering
SAT is Special Because
• Open rules visible to everyone– Rules for finding bad requirements text NOT proprietary
• Rules easy to change coincident with analysis run– To allow users to quickly tune tool to their domain and
adjust for potential false finding
• It is fast, NO overnight runs– Encourage on-the-fly analysis
– Let users tweak rules, look at results, and press submit button every 30 - 60 seconds
• Previous runs become templates for future analysis
Creative Systems Engineering
SAT Architecture
Templates
PreviousAnalysis
SAT Engine
Apache Server
WebBrowser
UserDocuments
Services & Rules
SATExports
- Metrics & Results- Excel & HTML
Help
Runs on your computerReturns document text blocksSearch criteria many attributesSearch saved as templatesGrouped by rules & servicesFast 150 pages in 60 seconds
Works Like Internet Search Engine But
Nothing is hiddenUses predefined directories
Encourages directory accessAdd your own directories
Creative Systems Engineering
SAT Architecture
• Rules grouped into services
• Services grouped into templates
• Templates grouped into domain
• Domains exist
Creative Systems Engineering
Sevices and Rules
Enable and disable services and rules using these display
filters to fit your situation
Creative Systems Engineering
Sevices and Rules
Modify, Delete, Add services and
rules
Creative Systems Engineering
Text Blocks
Metrics
Search Counts
All Words Counts
Settings
Shape
Reading Levels
Reports
Creative Systems Engineering
Evolution
SAT SAT SAT SAT SAT
spec writers
Designers QA Test IV&V
RelatedDocuments
Small 1-10 page
Problem StatementsProject Summaries
Architects
Uncommitted unclear position, do not begin modeling decomposing, designing, implementing until you understand & commit your stakeholders
Surface key Reqs
Consistency, completeness, testability, metrics
Evaluate docs, outline compliance, quality reqs
Specifications
Non Engineering Domains
StartedHere
NASAStudy
Creative Systems Engineering
Massive EvolutionPlain Language Analysis
tech writing
Legislative Analysiseducation
Constitutional Analysiseducation
Med Transcript Analysisprofessional
EU Green Paper 30 pgs
Stern Review700 pgs
US Climate Change Strategic Plan
400 pgs
General DocumentAnalysis (GDA)
How do individuals, organizations, countries, international bodies solve problems, what are the tools and techniques
For Policy
Makers
From Engineering Domain
Creative Systems Engineering
Big Picture
3. TEMPLATES
1. RULES
2. SERVICES
5. DOMAINS
COMMUNICATIONS
DEFENCE
ATC
6. PRECISE LANGUAGE INDUSTRIES
ENGINEERING
GOV REGULATION
LEGAL4. APPLICATION
.
Creative Systems Engineering
Findings
• Green Paper: A cry out for help– Few rules & services were hit
– Vague references to markets, people & international efforts
• Stern Review: Makes case for the problem– Most rules & services were hit
– Very broad & deep
• US Strategic Plan: Starts to offer alternatives– Next step
Revelation: Systems Engineering is the Answer!http://www.cassbeth.com/gda/index.html
Creative Systems Engineering
Path
Templates
PreviousAnalysis
SAT Engine
Apache Server
WebBrowser
UserDocument
s
Services & Rules
SATExports
- Metrics & Results- Excel & HTML
Help6. PRECISE LANGUAGE INDUSTRIES
ENGINEERING
GOV REGULATION
LEGAL
20062005
20082007 2007
Creative Systems Engineering
Some major themes
Creative Systems Engineering
Some Major Themes
• Systems Engineering is the Answer– Humans went to the moon
• Markets can not solve all problems– Nothing happened since the first energy crisis 30 years ago
• Sustainable Development is not new– How did we get to 6 billion people
• Past may offer a road map– Science the Endless Frontier
• Connections– memex, Internet, and libraries
Creative Systems Engineering
Some Major Themes
• Transparency– Problems are really complex the more minds the better
• Tradeoff Methodology– Based on 5000+ years of civilization
• Architecture Alternatives– Without alternatives solution not understood
• Innovation and Creativity– It is not about patterns and process
• Freedom– e.g. publishing is in trouble along with publishing industry
• Reasonableness– Common sense needs to surface for the good of all
Creative Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering Heart?
Architecture and Tradeoffs
Creative Systems Engineering
Where is the Heart?
• Stake Holders
• Requirements
• Trade off Studies
• Architecture alternatives
• Architecture Select
• Design, Implement, Verify, Validate
• Maintain, Upgrade, Transition
• Decommission, Dispose
• Key Issues• Key Req’s• Modeling• Simulation• Config Mgmt
Creative Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering
Ideal Solution
Actual Solution
Limitations
Ignorance
Limitations
TechnologyPoliticsMoneyTimeMotivationEducationPeople
Eff
ectiv
enes
s
Creative Systems Engineering
Systems Engineering
Ideal Solution
Actual Solution
Limitations
Time
Limitations
TechnologyPoliticsMoneyTimeMotivationEducationPeople
Eff
ectiv
enes
s
Creative Systems Engineering
Solution Scenarios
Sad Story Criminal
Miracle
Stuckt
e
No Excuse Arrogant
Creative Systems Engineering
Value Approaches
• Lowest Cost
• Highest Profit
• ROI - Greatest Return on Investment
• TCO - Total Cost of Ownership
• IRR - Internal Rate of Return
• EVA - Economic Value Added
• ROV - Real Option Value
• ROA - Return on Assets
• ROIE - Return on Infrastructure Employed
Creative Systems Engineering
Value Approaches
• Value is not only financial but non financial
• Some value a day at the beach more than a day at the mountains
=> Measure of Effectiveness - MOE <=
=> MOE = sum of tradeoff criteria / total cost <=
Creative Systems Engineering
Total Cost
Life Cycle Costs - LCC
LCC = R+D+P+O+M+E+S+TR = Research
D = Development
P = Production
O = Operation
M = Maintenance
E = Waste
S = Shut Down and Decommissioning
T = Disposal
Creative Systems Engineering
Tradeoff Matrix
• Arch 2 is 14% more effective than Arch 1
• Arch N is 7% more effective than Arch 1
• Weighted Arch 2 & Arch N are 9% more effective than Arch 1
Criteria Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch N Wt Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch NCriteria 1 5 7 9 1 5 7 9Criteria 2 5 5 8 5 25 25 40Criteria 3 5 5 6 1 5 5 6Criteria 4 5 6 6 2 10 12 12Criteria 5 5 9 8 3 15 27 24Criteria Y 5 9 8 1 5 9 8Total 30 41 45 65 85 99LCC 1 1.2 1.4 1 1.2 1.4MOE 30 34 32 65 71 71
Creative Systems Engineering
Sensitivity Analysis
• Include current approach in tradeoff
• Include pie-in-the-sky approach in tradeoff
• Change and zero out weights
• Change and zero out ratings
Tradeoff Matrix allows you to focus on architecture deficiencies and fix or optimize
them…What if arch N elements can be moved into arch 2 for criteria 2?
Creative Systems Engineering
Tradeoff Matrix
• Fixing Arch 2 by learning from Arch N for Criteria 2 is key
• Arch 2 is now 28% more effective than Arch 1
Criteria Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch N Wt Arch 1 Arch 2 Arch NCriteria 1 5 7 9 1 5 7 9Criteria 2 5 8 8 5 25 40 40Criteria 3 5 5 6 1 5 5 6Criteria 4 5 6 6 2 10 12 12Criteria 5 5 9 8 3 15 27 24Criteria Y 5 9 8 1 5 9 8Total 30 41 45 65 85 99LCC 1 1.2 1.4 1 1.2 1.4MOE 30 34 32 65 83 71
Creative Systems Engineering
Tradeoff Cells
• Formal Methods based on – Math, Logic, Set Theory, Hard Sciences
• Semi Formal Methods based on – Empirical Data, Soft Sciences
• Informal Methods– Everything Else including Common Sense
=> Based on 5000 Years of Civilization <=
Creative Systems Engineering
Ideal Architecture
Final Architecture is a fully optimized multidimensional transfer function not unlike creating a filter using inductors, capacitors,
resisters, and op amps
except
the equation is summarized in a matrix and captured in study documents...
Creative Systems Engineering
Ok So What Do I Do From Beginning to the End...
The Process
Creative Systems Engineering
The Process
• There is an old saying, keep it simple stupid
• What is buried in this is genius
• The sheer act of genius takes the complex and makes it simple
• I did not invent this
• This was practiced in the last century at remarkable places
Creative Systems Engineering
Beginning to End
• Identify system boundary and why it is the boundary – Context diagram
• Identify key requirements and why you selected them– Top 10
• Identify key issues and why you selected them– Top 10
• Identify alternatives and why you selected them– 7 plus or minus 2
Creative Systems Engineering
Beginning to End
• Draw a picture of each alternative– 1 page
• Succinctly state the essence of each alternative– 1 page and a list of 5-9 bullets
• Do a tradeoff of each alternative– Including support for 100 years, etc
• Apply science and engineering to the tradeoffs – Don't cook the books
• Identify how you will build each approach – Process, methods, tools, etc
Creative Systems Engineering
Beginning to End
• Build a proof of concept prototype– From paper to computer simulations to physical models
• Mature the prototype at a small operational setting– Try it before you make a mistake
• Roll out to infrastructure– Slowly and learn
• There is beauty in diversity– Nothing wrong with multiple approaches and companies
• Do this like your life depends on it
Creative Systems Engineering
Minor Problem
No one seems to be able to this any more...
Creative Systems Engineering
Sustainable Development Project
The Proposal
Hold on to your Seats
Creative Systems Engineering
Sustainable Development
Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as development
that:
"meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs."
Creative Systems Engineering
The Proposal is Simple
• It follows the model of Dr. Vennevar Bushs' seminal work presented to Franklin Roosevelt in the last century.
• That work is so important that it is included as an Appendix to this book,
• "Science the Endless Frontier, A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945".
Creative Systems Engineering
The Program Charter
• Identify institutions that can take the lead in Sustainable Development using Creative System Engineering.
• If none exist then propose structure of such an institution or institutions and how it or they can interact with all other institutions working in this area.
• Charter also includes where and how Creative System Engineering should be rolled out to existing institutions.
Creative Systems Engineering
Key Requirements
• Allow earth to sustain 100 billion people in 100 years
• Do not compromise current levels of freedom & liberty
• Uplift humanity so all can live to their fullest potential
• Increase level of bio diversity
• Continue to increase highest standard of industrial living
• Make highest industrial standards of living available to anyone desiring such a life style
• Most view these requirements as diametrically opposing, that is the challenge
Creative Systems Engineering
Key Issues and Observations
• This is a politically charged area and it should NOT be so
• Humans always did Sustainable Development from step farming to safe water & sewage
• Time is of the urgency, may not be enough time for traditional science Ph.D. thesis
• The markets alone will not solve the problems
Creative Systems Engineering
Key Issues and Observations
• In many ways markets are cause of problem
• Regulation and incentives are not the answer, look to history for guidance
• There are no impartial institutions that can address the sustainable development problem
• System engineering using science & engineering may help avert disaster in this century
Creative Systems Engineering
Problem Approach
• Prepare major policy paper ala Vannevar Bush letter to President Roosevelt
• Start a literature search of all aspects of sustainable development
• Start a market survey of all sustainable development projects
• Establish a library of the literature search and market survey using the web
Creative Systems Engineering
Problem Approach
• Identify institutions that might be able to take the lead in sustainable development
• Identify the level of impartiality of institutions engaged in sustainable development activities
• Propose a new institution that can take the impartial lead in sustainable development
• Tradeoff new proposed vs. current institutions for sustainable development lead charter
• Establish system engineering centers to perform independent no self interest trade studies
Creative Systems Engineering
Publishing Approaches
Sustainable Development Possible with Creative System Engineering
Creative Systems Engineering
Publishing Approach
• E-book– Amazon Kindle
• Traditional Book– Traditional Publishers
• Wiley Press
• Vanity Press
– Publish on Demand• Lulu.com, Createspace.com
Creative Systems Engineering
Beyond the Book
Universities
Creative Systems Engineering
Beyond the Book
• University of Pennsylvania - Advisor 08-09– Sustainable Village in Ghana
– EESOM: Electrical Energy Sourcing Optimization Model
• University of Pennsylvania - Advisor 09-10– Sustainable Healthcare Architecture Model
– Engineering Points4Life
– Blueprint for a Sustainable Healthcare IT Architecture
– Automotive Fuel Sustainability
• Drexel University possible curriculum additions
Creative Systems Engineering
Links
www.cassbeth.com/book
www.amazon.com/dp/0615216307
www.cassbeth.com
www.cassbeth.com/sustainable
Creative Systems Engineering
Back Up Slides
Various Topics
Creative Systems Engineering
Final Thoughts
• It all started with Specification Analysis Tool (SAT)– Download and try it
• Don’t forget the Other Document Analysis Tools– Download and try them
• Sustainable Development Possible with Creative System Engineering – amazon.com
Creative Systems Engineering
Policy Services & Rules• Broad Approaches
– Markets Technology Education Science Government People International Engineering Systems Alternatives
• Institutions– Academia Government Industry Labs Think Tanks NGO Non Profits
Popular Media Technical Media Associations
• Societal Approaches– Peaceful Sacrifice Stressed Violent
• Organizational Tools– Technical Process Management Gestalts Implementation
• Nation State Tools– Policy Legislation Regulation Deregulate Tax Military Departments
Resources Proactive Transparency
Creative Systems Engineering
Policy Services & Rules• International Tools
– Policy Resources Proactive
• Social Warnings– General Human Anger Environment Health Economic Earth
• National Roles– Religion Defense Money Wealth Education Agriculture Health State
People Labor
• International Roles– People Government Industry International Academia Community Money
Time
• Special Interests– Defense Intelligence Food Health Pharmaceuticals Chemicals Mining
Energy
Creative Systems Engineering
Broad Approaches Service
0 50 100
Alternatives
Education
Engineering
Government
International
Markets
People
Science
Systems
Technology
EU
0 500 1000 1500
Alternatives
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Engineering
Government
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Markets
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UK
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Alternatives
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Engineering
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Markets
People
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US
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Primary themes
Creative Systems Engineering
Broad Approaches Service
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Creative Systems Engineering
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Creative Systems Engineering
System EngineeringThoughts
• Does it naturally emerge when challenges are great?
• Did humans invent it or just observe its emergence?
• So what is systems engineering?
• How is it different from product development in an open free market with many competitors?
• How is it different from product development in a closed market in monopoly or oligopoly?
• How do utilities fit in?
• How do non profits fit in?