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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact:Kevin [email protected]
DELAURO, COURTNEY SAFE Incumbents breaking away from challengers
HARTFORD, CT (October 8, 2010) - Democratic U.S. Representatives Rosa DeLauro and Joe Courtney have comfortable leads
against their Republican opponents according to a poll released today on Connecticuts 2 nd and 3 rd congressional districts.
Representative DeLauro has 58.1 percent to Republican Jerry Labriolas 36.5 percent and Representative Courtney has 55.0 percent to
Republican Janet Peckinpaughs 41.3 percent.
The polls were commissioned by ctcapitolreport.com and conducted by the Merriman River Group on October 3-5, 2010. Inthe 2 nd congressional district, 545 voters were surveyed of which 3.7 percent are still unsure of whom they will support. There is a
margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.
In the 3 rd congressional district, 513 voters were surveyed and 5.5 percent are still unsure of whom they will support. There is
a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
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Traditionally, Connecticuts 2 nd, 4 th and 5 th congressional districts have been considered potential swing seats, says the polls
Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. In a year that is shaping up to be challenging for Democrats nationally, the Democratic
incumbents in the 4th
and 5th
are locked in tough challenges, with the 4th
too close to call and the 5th
leaning Republican.In the Second, however, Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney seems to be defying the trend, holding a secure 14-point lead
over Republican challenger Janet Peckinpaugh. Much of Courtneys success in this poll is due to him being able to do what fellow
incumbents Himes and Murphy have not: make the race more than a straight referendum on President Obama. While supporters of
Obama back Courtney by a wide 90-8 margin, Courtney is also getting slightly over 20 percent of those voters who disapprove of, or
are unsure about, Obamas job performance. In a district where the Presidents approval rating is close to 50-50, that higher level of
support from Obama opponents is worth a five point swing in both directions and turns what could be a relatively close race into a
comfortable lead for Courtney.
Fitch added, Women voters dont seem to be connecting with Peckinpaugh. She is being trounced by a 63-32 margin among
women despite holding an 8 percent lead among men. Thats bad news in a district where 55 percent of the voters on Election Day are
women.
The safest congressional incumbent in Connecticut this year is Rosa DeLauro, remarked Fitch. She enjoys a lead in excess
of 20 points and is likely to increase it given her financial advantage and strong campaigning. She is a rare Democrat this year that
leads among unaffiliated voters. She is getting 84 percent of Democrats in this Democratic district, and may be the only Congressional
candidate to break 60 percent this year.
About CTCapitolReport.com
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CT Capitol Report is published and edited by veteran political professional Tom Dudchik. Since its launch in 2009 its readership hasgrown exponentially and it is widely considered the most comprehensive website for Connecticut political news.
About Merriman River Group
With offices in Hamden, CT and Los Angeles, CA, Merriman River Group is a full service consulting organization specializing inelection supervision and administration, public opinion research, and communication services. In 2010, Merriman River Grouplaunched their NexGen IVR polling system, which offers professional grade polling and analysis with reduced costs and faster completion time. NexGen IVR has been used in public and private polling from New England to Hawaii this year, with accuracy far exceeding traditional polling methods. For more information on Merriman River Group, please visit www.merrimanriver.com .
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CT 2 nd Congressional DistrictMargin of Error = 4.2%
Frequency Percent
Congress:Courtney 300 55.0
Congress:Peckinpaugh 225 41.3
Congress:Unsure 20 3.7
Valid
Total 545 100.0
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Congress * Gender Crosstabulation
Gender
Gender:female Gender:male
Gender:Not
Reported Total
Count 192 101 7 300Congress:Courtney
% within Gender 63.0% 45.1% 43.8% 55.0%
Count 98 119 8 225Congress:Peckinpaugh
% within Gender 32.1% 53.1% 50.0% 41.3%
Count 15 4 1 20
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Gender 4.9% 1.8% 6.3% 3.7%
Count 305 224 16 545Total
% within Gender 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Gender * Congress Crosstabulation
Congress
Congress:Courtney Congress:Peckinpaugh Congress:Unsure Total
Count 192 98 15 305Gender:female
% within Congress 64.0% 43.6% 75.0% 56.0%
Count 101 119 4 224Gender:male
% within Congress 33.7% 52.9% 20.0% 41.1%
Count 7 8 1 16
Gender
Gender:Not Reported
% within Congress 2.3% 3.6% 5.0% 2.9%
Count 300 225 20 545Total
% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Party Crosstabulation
Party
1.
Party:Democrat
2.
Party:Republican
3.
Party:Independent
9.
Party:Unsure
99. Party:Not
Reported Total
Count 163 30 81 4 22 300Congress:Courtney
% within Party 90.6% 21.9% 45.8% 50.0% 51.2% 55.0%
Count 17 103 83 4 18 225Congress:Peckinpaugh
% within Party 9.4% 75.2% 46.9% 50.0% 41.9% 41.3%
Count 0 4 13 0 3 20
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Party .0% 2.9% 7.3% .0% 7.0% 3.7%
Count 180 137 177 8 43 545Total
% within Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Tea Party Crosstabulation
Tea Party
1. TeaParty:Yes 2. TeaParty:No
9.
TeaParty:Unsure
99.TeaParty:Not
Reported Total
Count 15 254 10 21 300Congress:Courtney
% within Tea Party 15.3% 67.7% 32.3% 51.2% 55.0%
Count 80 109 19 17 225Congress:Peckinpaugh
% within Tea Party 81.6% 29.1% 61.3% 41.5% 41.3%
Count 3 12 2 3 20
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Tea Party 3.1% 3.2% 6.5% 7.3% 3.7%
Count 98 375 31 41 545Total
% within Tea Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Obama Crosstabulation
Obama
1.
Obama:Approve
strongly
2.
Obama:Approve
somewhat
3.
Obama:Disapprove
somewhat
4.
Obama:Disapprove
strongly
9.
Obama:Unsure Total
Count 158 86 21 30 5 300Congress:Courtney
% within Obama 92.4% 85.1% 38.2% 14.5% 45.5% 55.0%
Count 11 11 33 167 3 225Congress:Peckinpaugh
% within Obama 6.4% 10.9% 60.0% 80.7% 27.3% 41.3%
Count 2 4 1 10 3 20
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Obama 1.2% 4.0% 1.8% 4.8% 27.3% 3.7%
Count 171 101 55 207 11 545Total
% within Obama 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Obama_Short Crosstabulation
Obama_Short
Obama:Approve Obama:Disapprove Obama:Unsure Total
Count 244 51 5 300Congress:Courtney
% within Obama_Short 89.7% 19.5% 45.5% 55.0%
Count 22 200 3 225Congress:Peckinpaugh
% within Obama_Short 8.1% 76.3% 27.3% 41.3%
Count 6 11 3 20
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Obama_Short 2.2% 4.2% 27.3% 3.7%
Count 272 262 11 545Total
% within Obama_Short 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Obama * Congress Crosstabulation
Congress
Congress:Courtney Congress:Peckinpaugh Congress:Unsure Total
Count 158 11 2 1711. Obama:Approve strongly
% within Congress 52.7% 4.9% 10.0% 31.4%
Count 86 11 4 1012. Obama:Approve
somewhat % within Congress 28.7% 4.9% 20.0% 18.5%
Count 21 33 1 553. Obama:Disapprove
somewhat % within Congress 7.0% 14.7% 5.0% 10.1%
Count 30 167 10 2074. Obama:Disapprove
strongly % within Congress 10.0% 74.2% 50.0% 38.0%
Count 5 3 3 11
Obama
9. Obama:Unsure
% within Congress 1.7% 1.3% 15.0% 2.0%
Count 300 225 20 545Total
% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Obama_Short * Congress Crosstabulation
Congress
Congress:Courtney Congress:Peckinpaugh Congress:Unsure Total
Count 244 22 6 272Obama:Approve
% within Congress 81.3% 9.8% 30.0% 49.9%
Count 51 200 11 262Obama:Disapprove
% within Congress 17.0% 88.9% 55.0% 48.1%
Count 5 3 3 11
Obama_Short
Obama:Unsure
% within Congress 1.7% 1.3% 15.0% 2.0%
Count 300 225 20 545Total
% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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CT 3 rd Congressional DistrictMargin of Error = 4.3%
Frequency Percent
Congress:DeLauro 298 58.1
Congress:Labriola 187 36.5
Congress:Unsure 28 5.5
Valid
Total 513 100.0
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Congress * Gender Crosstabulation
Gender
Gender:female Gender:male
Gender:Not
Reported Total
Count 200 91 7 298Congress:DeLauro
% within Gender 63.5% 48.7% 63.6% 58.1%
Count 96 87 4 187Congress:Labriola
% within Gender 30.5% 46.5% 36.4% 36.5%
Count 19 9 0 28
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Gender 6.0% 4.8% .0% 5.5%
Count 315 187 11 513Total
% within Gender 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Gender * Congress Crosstabulation
Congress
Congress:DeLauro Congress:Labriola Congress:Unsure Total
Count 200 96 19 315Gender:female
% within Congress 67.1% 51.3% 67.9% 61.4%
Count 91 87 9 187Gender:male
% within Congress 30.5% 46.5% 32.1% 36.5%
Count 7 4 0 11
Gender
Gender:Not Reported
% within Congress 2.3% 2.1% .0% 2.1%
Count 298 187 28 513Total
% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Party Crosstabulation
Party1.
Party:Democrat
2.
Party:Republican
3.
Party:Independent
9.
Party:Unsure
99. Party:Not
Reported Total
Count 168 22 75 4 29 298Congress:DeLauro
% within Party 84.0% 20.0% 51.0% 44.4% 61.7% 58.1%
Count 25 85 64 0 13 187Congress:Labriola
% within Party 12.5% 77.3% 43.5% .0% 27.7% 36.5%
Count 7 3 8 5 5 28
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Party 3.5% 2.7% 5.4% 55.6% 10.6% 5.5%
Count 200 110 147 9 47 513Total
% within Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Tea Party Crosstabulation
Tea Party
1. TeaParty:Yes 2. TeaParty:No
9.
TeaParty:Unsure
99.TeaParty:Not
Reported Total
Count 11 242 16 29 298Congress:DeLauro
% within Tea Party 15.1% 70.8% 31.4% 61.7% 58.1%
Count 62 88 24 13 187Congress:Labriola
% within Tea Party 84.9% 25.7% 47.1% 27.7% 36.5%
Count 0 12 11 5 28
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Tea Party .0% 3.5% 21.6% 10.6% 5.5%
Count 73 342 51 47 513Total
% within Tea Party 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Obama Crosstabulation
Obama1.
Obama:Approve
strongly
2.
Obama:Approve
somewhat
3.
Obama:Disapprove
somewhat
4.
Obama:Disapprove
strongly
9.
Obama:Unsure Total
Count 160 81 29 20 8 298Congress:DeLauro
% within Obama 93.6% 81.0% 44.6% 12.5% 47.1% 58.1%
Count 5 15 33 134 0 187Congress:Labriola
% within Obama 2.9% 15.0% 50.8% 83.8% .0% 36.5%
Count 6 4 3 6 9 28
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Obama 3.5% 4.0% 4.6% 3.8% 52.9% 5.5%
Count 171 100 65 160 17 513Total
% within Obama 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Congress * Obama_Short Crosstabulation
Obama_ShortObama:Approve Obama:Disapprove Obama:Unsure Total
Count 241 49 8 298Congress:DeLauro
% within Obama_Short 88.9% 21.8% 47.1% 58.1%
Count 20 167 0 187Congress:Labriola
% within Obama_Short 7.4% 74.2% .0% 36.5%
Count 10 9 9 28
Congress
Congress:Unsure
% within Obama_Short 3.7% 4.0% 52.9% 5.5%
Count 271 225 17 513Total
% within Obama_Short 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Obama * Congress Crosstabulation
CongressCongress:DeLauro Congress:Labriola Congress:Unsure Total
Count 160 5 6 1711. Obama:Approve strongly
% within Congress 53.7% 2.7% 21.4% 33.3%
Count 81 15 4 1002. Obama:Approve
somewhat % within Congress 27.2% 8.0% 14.3% 19.5%
Count 29 33 3 653. Obama:Disapprove
somewhat % within Congress 9.7% 17.6% 10.7% 12.7%
Count 20 134 6 1604. Obama:Disapprove
strongly % within Congress 6.7% 71.7% 21.4% 31.2%
Count 8 0 9 17
Obama
9. Obama:Unsure
% within Congress 2.7% .0% 32.1% 3.3%
Count 298 187 28 513Total
% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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Obama_Short * Congress Crosstabulation
CongressCongress:DeLauro Congress:Labriola Congress:Unsure Total
Count 241 20 10 271Obama:Approve
% within Congress 80.9% 10.7% 35.7% 52.8%
Count 49 167 9 225Obama:Disapprove
% within Congress 16.4% 89.3% 32.1% 43.9%
Count 8 0 9 17
Obama_Short
Obama:Unsure
% within Congress 2.7% .0% 32.1% 3.3%
Count 298 187 28 513Total
% within Congress 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%