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Research Analysts
Amit Gupta
Nandish Patel
Raj Deepak Singh
Dipesh Dedhia
• PRODUCT 2
• PRODUCT 1
Daily Currency outlook
Recommendation in the report
June 4, 2020
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Curreny Pair Contract Action Price Target Stoploss Duration
US$INR June futures Buy 75.35 75.65 75.22 1 day
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Forex and global equities
Currency O
utlo
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Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
Spot Currency
Global Bonds
• Post gap up opening, the Nifty saw sharp upsides, moving up almost
200 points during the session and ended with a gain of 82 points. The
Nifty has rallied more than 1100 points in last six sessions. Currently,
market is trading at major Call base of monthly and weekly expiry strike
of 10000 and 10200. These levels should act as strong hurdles
• Outperformance in banking stocks led the Bank Nifty to test its major
Call base of 21000. The buying spree continued in the PSU banking
space whereas other banks also provided support
• The rupee found support near its highest Put base of 75 and witnessed
a reversal. After witnessing a stronger opening, it started weakening in
the second half and ended weaker around 75.47. The rupee has
weakened despite continued weakness in the dollar index
• The US dollar fell to an 11-week low against a basket of other
currencies on Wednesday, on optimism that the worst of the
economic downturn stemming from the global spread of the
Coronavirus is over
FII Activity
• Foreign institutional investors (FII) were net buyers to the tune of
| 7891 crore on June 2, 2020. Block deal worth | 7000 crore seen in
Kotak Bank was the reason behind such high numbers. In the debt
segment, they bought almost | 111 crore in the last session
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Segment Purchase Sell Net Rs. crores
Equity 12567 4676 7891
Debt 832 721 111
Net 8002
Indices Close % Change
India 10 Year 5.82 -3.58
India 2 Year 4.32 0.00
US 10 Year 0.75 11.30
US 2 Year 0.19 14.20
Germany 10 Year -0.35 -1.58
Currency Close % Change
US$-INR 75.46 0.13
EUR-INR 84.61 0.89
GBP-INR 94.90 0.71
INR-JPY 0.69 -0.13
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INR futures and Outlook
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research
Currency futures on NSE
Pivot levels
• c
• The dollar-rupee contract on the NSE was at 75.68 in the
last session. The open interest increased in June as well
July series. June OI increased almost 10% in the last
session
• Risk on rally going on in most equity markets has
triggered the dollar weakness. However, the rupee failed
to strengthen in line with the rest of the Asian currencies,
indicating some weakness
US$INR Strategy
Note: The given recommendation in this report is intraday and should not be
linked with positional view & recommendations given in Monthly currency
Derivatives and Positional Currency report which may have different view.
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Futures S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
US$INR (Jun) 75.00 75.34 75.53 75.87 76.05
US$INR (Jul) 75.22 75.56 75.74 76.08 76.26
EURINR (Jun) 83.16 83.92 84.36 85.12 85.56
EURINR (Jul) 82.97 83.94 84.47 85.44 85.97
GBPINR (Jun) 94.12 94.62 94.93 95.43 95.74
GBPINR (Jul) 94.38 94.83 95.14 95.59 95.90
JPYINR (Jun) 69.03 69.32 69.52 69.81 70.01
JPYINR (Jul) 69.32 69.59 69.75 70.02 70.18
OI Vol
June 75.68 0.44 1710851 2699839 9.53 40.67
July 75.90 0.45 424771 348209 32.12 58.68
Jun-Jul -0.36 - - 1406221 - 87.10
(%) change
Contracts LTP chng (%) OI Vol
US$INR Jun futures contract (NSE)
Buy US$ in the range of 75.33-75.37 Market Lot: US$1000
Target: 75.65/ 75.80 Stop Loss: 75.22
Support: 75.22/75.05 Resistance: 75.65/76.85
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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
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DISCLAIMER
I/We, Amit Gupta B.E, MBA (Finance), Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Nandish Patel BCOM, Dipesh Dedhia BCOM, MBA (Finance), authors and the names subscribed to
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We
also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
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