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Human Computer Interaction and societal impact – Can HCI influence public policy making and IT politics?
Keynote address at IADIS IHCI’16, July 2, 2016
Jan Gulliksen • Professor in Human Computer Interaction, • Dean of the school Computer Science and Communication, KTH Royal Institute of
Technology, Stockholm, Sweden • Guest professor at Uppsala university, Sweden • Chairman of the Digital commission of the Swedish Government, Ministry of
Enterprise • Digital champion of Sweden appointed by the European Commission
DeanofSchoolofComputerScienceandcommunica:on
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Vehicles,ships
Administra2vework
Researchinterests:HumanInterac:onwithWork-suppor:ngICT-systems
Healthandcare
!Process-andtrafficcontrol
FirstreportfromthecommiHeeforDigi:za:onreleasedMay3,2013
Thecommi
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DigitalchampionofSweden
ahigh-profile,dynamicandenerge:cindividualresponsibleforgeTngeveryoneintheircountryonlineandimprovingdigitalskills.“You’rethedigitalchampionofSweden–Yourtaskiseasy”NeelieKroes,vicepresidentEuropeancommission
Scien:ficImpact
• GooglescholarprofilewithAlbertEinstein
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Societalimpact
• Whatisthat?
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Societalimpact
• Changetheworld• Educate• Influencepublicpolicy,standards,etc.• Innovateandstartcompanies• Improvedevelopmentmethodologies• MakeitabeHerworldforoneindividual
Predic:ngthefuture…
“Thebestwaytopredictthefutureistoinventit.”SteveJobs
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FotoKris:n
aSahlén
”…theremightjustbeaworldmarketof5computers”(T.J.Watson,presidentIBM,1943)”…Icanassureyouthatdataprocessingisafadthatwon’tlasttheyear.”(Editor,Pren:ce-Hall,1957)”…inthedistantfuturecomputersmightweighlessthan1.5tons”(PopularMechanics,1957)“TheInternetisaflythatmightblowpast.Idonotthinkpeopleul7matelywillwanttospendasmuch7measitactuallytakes,forsurfingtheweb.”(InesUusman,MinisterofCommunica:onsinSweden,1996)"TheInternetisnewterritoryforallofus”(AngelaMerkel,PrimeMinisterofGermany,2013)
Predic:ngthefuture…
Tradi:onalofficeworkenvironments–20yearsofdevelopment
–Doyouseethedevelopment?
2014-04-05 14
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Thefutureofficeenvironment
MovementmaHers
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Thedystopianvision:Minorityreport
• Research-basedsciencefic:on
• Ar:ficialintelligencerevisited
Changingcondi:onsfortheuser
• Thevirtualoffice• Ac:vity-based
offices
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Newtechnology–newbusinessmodels
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• Fromindustrialapplica:onstohomebasedenvironments.
• Helpingincare• Helpingineduca:on
Robo:csandAutonomoussystems
HughHerr,MITMedialab
• Facilita:ngforuserswithspecialneeds• Extendingthefunc:onalitybeyondhumanabili:es
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HughHerr,MITMedialab
• Facilita:ngforuserswithspecialneeds• Extendingthefunc:onalitybeyondhumanabili:es
Google’sautonomouscar
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Brain-computerinterac:onandNeuroinforma:cs
• Fromambientintelligencetoubiquitouscompu:ng
• Connec:ngcomputersdirectlytoyournervoussystem
Whatwillthefuturelabourmarketlooklike?
Digitaliza:onAutoma:za:onRobo:za:onGlobaliza:onUrbaniza:onIndividualiza:on
Fölster,S.(2014).Vartannatjobbautoma7serasinom20år–utmaningarförSverige.
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Highest probability Lowest probability
Occupation Probability for
digitalization Occupation Probability for
digitalization
Models, etc. 98% Pschologists, social workers, etc. 3%
Accounting assistants 97% Specialists within biology, agriculture and forestry, etc. 3%
Machine operators, timber industry 97% Pastors 2,5%
Library assistants, etc. 96% CEO, Managing directors and chief executives, etc. 1,5%
Cashiers, etc. 95% Senior officials of special interest organizations 1,5%
Assistants within farming, gardening, forestry and fishing 95%
Legislators, senior officials and politicians 1,2%
Other machine operators and fitters 94% Special teachers 1,1%
Dealers, retailers, demonstrators etc. 94% Other teachers with special theoretical competence 0,9%
Other office workers 94% Priests 0,8%
Stalls and market salespersons 94% Agronoms, forest rangers etc. 0,8%
Adaptedfrom“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013
Howlikelyisitthatajobistakenoverbyacomputerwithinthenext20years?
Highest probability Lowest probability
Occupation Probability for
digitalization Occupation Probability for
digitalization
Models, etc. 98% Pschologists, social workers, etc. 3%
Accounting assistants 97% Specialists within biology, agriculture and forestry, etc. 3%
Machine operators, timber industry 97% Pastors 2,5%
Library assistants, etc. 96% CEO, Managing directors and chief executives, etc. 1,5%
Cashiers, etc. 95% Senior officials of special interest organizations 1,5%
Assistants within farming, gardening, forestry and fishing 95%
Legislators, senior officials and politicians 1,2%
Other machine operators and fitters 94% Special teachers 1,1%
Dealers, retailers, demonstrators etc. 94% Other teachers with special theoretical competence 0,9%
Other office workers 94% Priests 0,8%
Stalls and market salespersons 94% Agronoms, forest rangers etc. 0,8%
Adaptedfrom“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013
Howlikelyisitthatajobistakenoverbyacomputerwithinthenext20years?
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Highest probability Lowest probability
Occupation Probability for
digitalization Occupation Probability for
digitalization
Models, etc. 98% Pschologists, social workers, etc. 3%
Accounting assistants 97% Specialists within biology, agriculture and forestry, etc. 3%
Machine operators, timber industry 97% Pastors 2,5%
Library assistants, etc. 96% CEO, Managing directors and chief executives, etc. 1,5%
Cashiers, etc. 95% Senior officials of special interest organizations 1,5%
Assistants within farming, gardening, forestry and fishing 95%
Legislators, senior officials and politicians 1,2%
Other machine operators and fitters 94% Special teachers 1,1%
Dealers, retailers, demonstrators etc. 94% Other teachers with special theoretical competence 0,9%
Other office workers 94% Priests 0,8%
Stalls and market salespersons 94% Agronoms, forest rangers etc. 0,8%
Adaptedfrom“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013
Howlikelyisitthatajobistakenoverbyacomputerwithinthenext20years?
“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013
NearlyhalfofUSjobscouldbeatriskofcomputeriza2on
Crea:veandsocialintelligenceskillsarerequired
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Source: LinkedInSource: LinkedIn
Source: LinkedIn
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TheDigitalEconomyandSocietyIndexrankscountriesbasedon5parameters;Connec7vity,HumanCapital,InternetUsage,Integra7onofDigitalTechnologyandDigitalPublicServices.(RetrievedfromtheDigitalAgendaScoreboard2016-01-04)
TheDigitalEconomyandSocietyIndex
ShareoftheSwedishpopula:onover18yearsthathaveaccesstoacomputer,internetandbroadband
Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015
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Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013
Vilkaärdetsominteanvänderinternet?
Andelenavdesominteanvänderinternetiolikaåldersgrupper
Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015
Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013
Whoaretheonesnotusingtheinternet?
Shareofthosenotusingtheinternetdividedintoagecategories
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Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013
Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015
Whyaren’ttheyusingtheinternet?
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• x
Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015
Förskojsskull…
• 50%avallatvååringaranvänderinternet
• Fram:denskonsumenter
• Poten:alförinnova:onoch:llväxt gretchichi
källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013
Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015
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Justforfun…
• 67%ofall2yearoldsareusinginternet
• Theconsumersofthefuture
• Poten:alforinnova:onandgrowth gretchichi
källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013
Childrenandyoungadolecent’suseofsocialnetworks
Source:Svenskarnaochinternet2013
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1.IncreasingtheamountofICTprac::onersinEU
• Currently4-6millionpeopleemployedasICTprofessionals
• Demandgrowing3%ayear• Supplynotkeepingpace• Issues:youngarenotchosingICTstudies,notenoughgraduates,lowfemalepar:cipa:on,skillsmismatches–educa:onandtrainingnotfulfillingindustrydemand
• Shortagesforecasttocon2nue: 900000–1millionvacanciesby2015
TheICTworldisnotenough
Companiescan'tfindICTspecialistsYoungpeoplecan'tfindjobs
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2.ImprovingDigitalskillsamongICTusers
• 18.5%oftheworkforceisICTintensive• 90%requiresomedegreeofskills• Demanddependsoneachprofession• ICTskillsotentransferableacrossjobs• But,only53%oftheworkforceconfidentinICTskillsiftheyweretolookfor/changejobsinthenext12months
• Anduserskillsaretoalargeexentmissing/notadequate...
Thanks
[email protected]@jangulliksenjangulliksen.com
