1876: Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH
”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams."
-- 15 % Penetration
-- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981
-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet”
-- Vint Cerf, 1977
“Not everything that can be counted, counts.
-- Einstein, 1879-1955
And not everything that counts, can be counted”
Per
cen
tag
e o
f O
wn
ersh
ipP
erce
nta
ge
of
Ow
ner
ship
100100
8080
6060
4040
2020
00
ElectricityElectricity(1873)(1873)
TelephoneTelephone(1876)(1876)
AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)
TelevisionTelevision(1926)(1926)
RadioRadio(1905)(1905)
VCRVCR(1952)(1952)
MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)
PCPC(1975)(1975)
InternetInternet(1975)(1975)
1001008080606040402020 120120
Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction
NCP Conception
NCP Roll-Out
1961 19691961 1969
1969 19821969 1982
1972 19821972 1982
1983 Now! 1983 Now!
1991 1995-Now1991 1995-Now
IP Conception
IPv4 Roll-Out
IPv6 Conception
IPv6 Roll-Out 2000 2000
1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 8 10 * 10 Professionals Innovators Everyone
Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media
9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global Internet
Users on the Internet Users on the Internet
CAN/US - 125 162Europe - 48 59Asia/Pac - 46 67Latin Am - 10 14Africa - 3 3
--------------------------------------------------Total - 232 305 Mio
Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000
Source: TelcordiaSource: Telcordia
75% of traffic on Internet is WWW3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)700 Million web pages (and dark info)Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported
300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002
Can the Internet runCan the Internet runQuality & Security in one go?Quality & Security in one go?
Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct
broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV
Real-time quality of service support, VoIP
Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)
Internet-enabled DevicesInternet-enabled Devices
In need of IP Addresses, at least!In need of IP Addresses, at least!
Information appliances
–1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)
WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games
Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)
PersonPerson
PersonPerson
ApplianceAppliance
ApplianceAppliance
Voice
VoiceMail
Telemetry
ITS
Alarm
Notifications
Emerging
Growing
Growing
MaturingVoice Control
Fax Computer TeIephony Integration
Home Banking
InfoCom Application AreasInfoCom Application Areas
Wireless Internet
e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras
“always on” networking – increasing demand for IP address space
“Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite
Mobile Radio -– 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)
Future Services
Voice still key service
Mobile E-commerce
Mobile office
Mobile images
Mobile e-mail
Mobile internet
Vertical applications
Fixed line (dial-up)subscribers
Mobilesubscribers
PC/NC Internetusers
Mobile Internetusers
Mil
lion
s
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1 B1 B
The Rush to the Billion! Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’
Wide AreaCoverage
Local AreaCoverage
Mobile Information
Society
Wireless, secure,
high speed access
Messaging internet
always onShared
databases &applications
Mobile telephony
Seamless services
IP
Fast Internet
& Intranet
Mobile multimedia
WirelessWirelessInformationInformation
SocietySocietyS-UMTS
SatelliteBroadband
DVB-S
DVB-TDAB
GSM
GPRS/EDGE
IR
BroadbandW-LAN
UMTS
Satellite/HAPS
Broadcasting
Cellular
Indoor
MBS 40 xMDS
Broadband WFA
Wireless Local Loop
Body LANs
PersonalArea Networks
UMTS ++
4th Generation
Local Area NetworksMBS 60 MWS
Bluetooth
Quasi-CellularSource: Joao DaSilvaSource: Joao DaSilva
IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6 IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6
1970 1980 2000IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!
1990
- ?
Internet IP Address Need forecasts
200 Millions
Source: Internet Software Consortium (http://www.isc.org)
Million Year 2005 Year 2010Mobile Phones 1500 3000Mobile IP Phones 500 100010% Roaming 50 100400 Wireless Networks 20000 40000
0
10000
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30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000Ju
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8
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9
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1
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Dec-9
9
Projected routing table growth without CIDR/NAT
Deployment Period of CIDR
Moore’s Law and NATsmake routing work today
Source: http//www.telstra.net/ops/bgptable.html
But they cannot berelied on foreverGrowth rate: ~15000 routes/year
Early conclusion
+ Wireless Growth
Internet 2000 is a baby!Internet 2000 is a baby!
Internet Growth
100 IP Adds/person!
+ Always-On+ Info Soft Appliances
FinallyFinally
The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be
and the more complex the transition will be !
(compared to
IPv4