Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
MarinERA: Facilitating the coordination of national and
regional marine RTD programmes in Europe
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
The project aims to lead to
• an improved understanding of the evolution of the Mediterranean Marine Ecosystem in decadal time scales, in order to
• lead to more reliable predictions in the context of currently evolving anthropogenic climatic change.
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
Motivation (in place of an introduction):
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
Motivation (in place of an introduction):
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing
•11-year cycle of the solar forcing
Weng, JASTP 2005
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
Motivation (in place of an introduction):
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing
• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing
• Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to decadal-scale forcing.
Jan-1997 Jan-2007 Jan-2017
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Jan-1997 Jan-2007 Jan-2017
Casford, 2002
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
Motivation (in place of an introduction):
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing
• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing
• Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to decadal-scale forcing.
• Decadal scale of anthropogenic forcing….
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos Why now?
Because now we are in the verge of obtaining the capacity to do this:
• Instrumental period extending to several decades
• Paleoceanographic analyses reaching decadal resolutions
• Increased flow of proxy data covering hundreds of years at higher than decadal resolution
• Numerical simulations (almost) possible
MedEcos
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean
Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Scientificas
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, UAB
Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens
Consortium
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos Approach:
• Attempt a reconstruction of circulation and –where possible- ecosystem structure and functions based on compilation of available information
• When necessary, collect and analyze additional information (sediment cores, biogeochemical functioning)
• Major effort in “fusing” paleoceanographic, instrumental and modelling results
• Attempt to reproduce past and present conditions using numerical modelling, “tuning” circulation and ecosystem models.
• Provide “calibrated worst-case predictions” based on the above
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos Structure of the project:
• WP1: Coordination – external links
• WP2: Field sampling
• WP3: Instrumental period data collection and fusion
• WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and assessment
• WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts
• WP6: Forecasts
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP2: Field sampling
Task 2.1: Primary productivity rates and community structure
Task 2.2: Production, cycling and export of organic matter (OM)
Task 2.3: Production and fluxes of carbonate species (coccoliths, foraminifera).
Task 2.4: Temperature and salinity proxies’ calibrations
Deliverables:D2.1. Calculations of PP rates and export of OM from the
euphotic to the meso- and bathypelagic zones: Month 12D2.2. Mineralization vs. export of OM under different oxidation
states (high vs. low oxygen levels) : Month 12D2.3. Export of calcareous nanoplankton and calculations of rain
ratios (Organic/Carbonate fluxes) : Month 12
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection
and fusion
Task 3.1. Collection of direct atmospheric forcing information for the instrumental period.
Source: NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change Experiment coupled model
runsResolution:
temporal: monthlyspatial: 2.5° x2.5°
Coverage: 1861-2000
Data interpolated to 1/10° to force the ocean circulation model in WP4.
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection
and fusionTask 3.2 Estimation of volume, heat, salt and buoyancy exchange at the
Straits for the instrumental period.
Gibraltar: Initial and boundary conditions from the oceanic component of the previously mentioned NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change Experiment coupled model runsResolution:
temporal: annualspatial: 1° x 1°
Coverage: 1861-2000
Dardanelles: Exchanges computed indirectly from the heat and freshwater budget of the Black Sea, based on the above model runs. A HF radar facility facing the Dardanelles exit will be used for assessment and possibly calibration
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection
and fusionTask 3.3. Collection of sediment cores for high-resolution analysis of the
instrumental period.
Sediment cores from selected high-sedimentation regions (deep Lemnos basin, core MD99-2343) high-resolution analysis of the sediment corresponding to the instrumental period.
All extractable information (regarding “palaeo”-SST, “palaeo”-SSS, ecosystem structure and functioning etc.) will be analyzed with emphasis on decadal-scale variability.
D3.1. Air-sea and lateral (Strait) fluxes for forcing the instrumental period simulations.
D3.2. High-resolution (decadal-scale) sedimentary information for the instrumental period.
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and
assessment Task 4.1. Circulation modelling
• A version of the Princeton Ocean Model, at a resolution of 1/10° x 1/10° and 24 sigma levels with momentum, heat and freshwater flux boundary conditions will be used.
• Input: rivers, Gibraltar and Dardanelles• Hadley Centre’s SST used for assimilation purposes• This model is routinely used for operational purposes by the H.C.M.R. in the
framework of the POSEIDON project
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and
assessment Task 4.2. Periods of interest within the instrumental period.
• Identification of periods of special interest within the instrumental period.• Use of forcing fields from WP3• Additional use of proxies through cooperation / links with MedClivar
Task 4.3. Ecosystem modelling for simulation of the selected periods of interest.
• The ERSEM Ecosystem model will be run for 1-2 years within the selected periods
D4.1. Circulation and thermohaline functioning of the Mediterranean for the instrumental period.
D4.2. Selected periods for ecosystem simulations.D4.3. Ecosystem simulations of the selected periods and comparison to the
sedimentary records.
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts
Task 5.1. Selection of periods of interest out of the instrumental period.
• select periods of special interest within the Holocene that would be worth and it would be possible to attempt to simulate
• to define numerical experiments allowing the investigation of the thermohaline and ecosystem dynamics
• to use the latter in an effort to approximate the climatic conditions leading to the observed sediment variability (for example, sapropel formation).
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts
Task 5.2. Simulation experiments• Attempt to simulate the periods selected by task 5.1• Experiments plagued by uncertainty regarding the meteorological forcing
and boundary conditions (Strait exchanges)• Approach will use the Bigg et al., 1994 and Myers et al. 1999
methodology as a starting basis• New developments (like the AGCM reproduced climate 6000 BP by
Vettoretti et al., 1998) will be incorporated.• Special attention will be given to decadal-scale variability
D5.1. Report of the workshop on climatic conditions and related forcing for the selected periods outside the instrumental record
D5.2. Report on the simulation experiments
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos WP6: Forecasts
Task 6.1. Collection of direct atmospheric forcing information for various selected climatic scenaria.
• Momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes from the NOAA/GFDL CM2.0/CM2.1 model runs will be interpolated to 1/10° x 1/10° to force the Med circulation model
Task 6.2. Estimation of volume, heat, salt and buoyancy exchange at the Straits for various selected climatic scenaria.
• Estimation of exchanges through the Straits as in task 4.2
Task 6.3. Simulations of circulation and ecosystem functioning • Exploit the results of 6.1 and 6.2 to force the circulation model under the
IPCC worst case scenario• Selected periods will be chosen to run the ERSEM model in order to
investigate the ecosystem response
D6.1. Air-sea and lateral fluxes under various IPCC scenario.D6.2. Predictions on changing thermohaline and ecosystem functioning under the
worst case IPCC scenario for CO2 emissions
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos TimeTable
2009 2010 2011
WP Tasks
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
1.1 M D
1 1.2
MD
2.1 MD
M
2.2 MD
M
2.3 MD
M 2
2.4 MD
M
3.1 MD
3.2 MD
3
3.3 M
4.1 D
4.2 MD
4
4.3 D
5.1 M D
5 5.2 M D
6.1 MD
6.2 MD
6
6.3 D
(a) Age model of MD99-2343 core developed by means of ten 14C-AMS dates (triangles), tuning of the G. bulloides d18O record with the ice d18O record from the GISP2 core (circles) and tuning with the d18O record of the MD95-2043 core from the Alboran Sea (asterisks). (b) Linear sedimentation rates of MD99-2343 core for the last 53 kyr that oscillate between 15 and 73 cm·kyr-1.
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos
G. bulloides oxygen isotopic records from (a) MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea) and (b) MD99-2343 cores for the last 12 kyr. (c) Sedimentation rates along MD99-2343 sediment core calculated linearly among calendar years from 14C accelerator mass spectrometry dates (triangles) and tie points (cross). The mean sedimentation rate of 37 cm kyr-1 is represented by a dashed line.
Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
MedEcos