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Demographic Trends in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula
Eric A. Guthrie, PhDJune 7, 2018
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State Demographer
• Michigan’s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census
• Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non‐profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census
• Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)
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• I send out updates when there is a significant data release from the Census Bureau
• The Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives also sends out regular updates on a wealth of topics
• You can sign up for those updates and pick what topics interest you at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/MIDEPTTMB/subscriber/new
Subscribe to the Bureau’s Listserv for updates
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• Michigan Population– Trends, Projections and Structure
• How Populations Change
• Generational Fertility
• Upper Peninsula Population Trend
• Upper Peninsula Population Structure
• Upper Peninsula Projections and Scenarios
• Upper Peninsula Vital Statistics and Natural Increase
• Historical Upper Peninsula Migration
• Upper Peninsula Median Age
• Upper Peninsula Migration
• Items to Consider
Topics
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Michigan Population
9,952,450
10,055,315
9,876,199
9,962,311
9,750,000
9,800,000
9,850,000
9,900,000
9,950,000
10,000,000
10,050,000
10,100,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
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Michigan Projected Population
9,400,000
9,600,000
9,800,000
10,000,000
10,200,000
10,400,000
10,600,000
10,800,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDOT and U‐M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE)
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Why Does It Matter?
• There are only three things that affect a population size over time:
– Births
– Deaths
– Migration
Population2 =
Population1 + Births – Deaths + (In‐migrations – Out‐migration)
Natural Change Net Migration
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Fertility by Generation (Births per 1,000 Women)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Boomers Gen X Millennials
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Net Migration
‐100,000
‐80,000
‐60,000
‐40,000
‐20,000
0
20,000
40,000
90‐91
91‐92
92‐93
93‐94
94‐95
95‐96
96‐97
97‐98
98‐99
99‐00
00‐01
01‐02
02‐03
03‐04
04‐05
05‐06
06‐07
07‐08
08‐09
09‐10
10‐11
11‐12
12‐13
13‐14
14‐15
15‐16
16‐17
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS); MDHHS
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Upper Peninsula Population
317,423
311,627
302,077
290,000
295,000
300,000
305,000
310,000
315,000
320,0002000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
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Upper Peninsula Population Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Upper Peninsula Population Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Upper Peninsula Population Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Upper Peninsula Projected Population
290000
295000
300000
305000
310000
315000
320000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDOT and U‐M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE)
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Upper Peninsula Vital Statistics
‐2000
‐1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Natural Change Deaths Births
Source: Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS)
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Upper Peninsula Net Migration
1,578
‐4,757
68
‐1,718
‐107
‐3,217
‐1,391
‐6,000
‐5,000
‐4,000
‐3,000
‐2,000
‐1,000
0
1,000
2,00090‐91
91‐92
92‐93
93‐94
94‐95
95‐96
96‐97
97‐98
98‐99
99‐00
00‐01
01‐02
02‐03
03‐04
04‐05
05‐06
06‐07
07‐08
08‐09
09‐10
10‐11
11‐12
12‐13
13‐14
14‐15
15‐16
16‐17
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS); MDHHS
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Upper Peninsula Population Structure Less College Counties
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Upper Peninsula Population Structure Less College Counties
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Trends in Median Age
42.7
43.8
45.5
47.2
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UP UP Less 2 University Counties
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County Median Age
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Net Migration Between the UP and All Other US Counties
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 ACS 5‐year Estimates
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Items to Consider
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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• Population in the UP has been in decline for a long period
• Current projections indicate the population may seen some recovery in the next decades
– Concern that state‐level assumptions may be being applied to the UP, which may not come to fruition
• The regions greatest resource may be the area’s universities
– Large continuing resupply of your people that have already chosen to locate in the UP for a time
– How might the region engage that population and find out what they would need to stay?
– How might the region make that a focus?
Items to Consider
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Questions?
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Eric A. Guthrie, PhDState DemographerDepartment of Technology, Management & BudgetBureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic InitiativesVictor Office Building201 N. Washington Square5th FloorLansing, MI 48913(517) 241‐8667