Download - Demographic Transition Egeo 312 1 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL.

Demographic Transition Egeo 312Demographic Transition Egeo 312 11

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo

Start with Hans Rosling


TodayToday

Investigate the Demographic Investigate the Demographic Transition ModelTransition Model

Investigate Types of Diagrams used Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographicsto display and map Demographics


1. DEFINING 1. DEFINING GENERAL GENERAL TERMS TERMS

AND AND CONCEPTSCONCEPTS


Basic Terms

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Infant Mortality Rate

Fertility Rate


Crude Birth RateCrude Birth Rate

CBRCBR Number of live births per year = Number of live births per year =

3,1803,180 Divided by population = 200,000Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000Times 1,000

CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000

CBR = CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people15.9 births per 1,000 people


Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate

CDRCDR Number of deaths per year = 1,860Number of deaths per year = 1,860 Divided by population = 200,000Divided by population = 200,000 Times 1,000Times 1,000

CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000

CDR = CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people9.3 deaths per 1,000 people


Rate of Natural IncreaseRate of Natural Increase

RNIRNI CBR = 15.9CBR = 15.9 Minus CDR = 9.3Minus CDR = 9.3 Divided by 10Divided by 10

RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = 0.66= 0.66% growth per year% growth per year


Infant Mortality RateInfant Mortality Rate

IMIM number of newborns dying under one number of newborns dying under one

year of age = 40year of age = 40 divided by the number of live births divided by the number of live births

during one year = 5,300during one year = 5,300 Time 1,000 Time 1,000

IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000IM = (40/5,300) x 1,000

IM = IM = 7.6 deaths per 1,000 births7.6 deaths per 1,000 births


Fertility RateFertility Rate

Average Number of child birthsAverage Number of child births Per womanPer woman

Since a couple is 2 people, need a Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace little more than 2 births to replace the parentsthe parents

2.12.1 is considered a stable growth is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the US of a Developed fertility rate in the US of a Developed CountryCountry


Types of DiagramsTypes of Diagrams

Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid Trend DiagramsTrend Diagrams

– Temporal (over time)Temporal (over time)– Spatial (over spaceSpatial (over space

Survivorship DiagramSurvivorship Diagram


2.2.DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION TRANSITION MODEL MODEL


Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.


What is the Demographic What is the Demographic Transition Model?Transition Model?

The "Demographic Transition" is a The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population model that describes population change over time. change over time. – Our main concern has been growthOur main concern has been growth– Now in Industrial Countries it is declineNow in Industrial Countries it is decline



It is based on an interpretation It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or the observed changes, or transitionstransitions, , in birth and death rates in in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so. two hundred years or so.



The "Demographic Transition" is a The "Demographic Transition" is a model a scientific hypothesismodel a scientific hypothesis– Until the 1990s it seemed to work well Until the 1990s it seemed to work well

with Developed Countrieswith Developed Countries– It worked It worked pretty wellpretty well with Less with Less

Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries



The "Demographic Transition" is The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, based on the Scientific Method, – so we are continually “experimenting” so we are continually “experimenting”

with it and improving itwith it and improving it

In this class we will experiment with it In this class we will experiment with it in Mexico & Swedenin Mexico & Sweden


Impacts and ConsequencesImpacts and ConsequencesThe next several sets of tables summarizes the The next several sets of tables summarizes the

measures of impacts of the Transitionmeasures of impacts of the Transition

Four Stages ImpactsFour Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing 3. High but Slowing

GrowthGrowth 4. Low Growth4. Low Growth

Some now see a fifth stageSome now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ????5. ??? Decline sets in ????

Factors That Change over the Factors That Change over the StagesStages

Family SizeFamily Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Infant Mortality & Fertility

Rates Rates Family EconomicsFamily Economics Status of KidsStatus of Kids Gender RolesGender Roles Health ConditionsHealth Conditions Transportation FacilitiesTransportation Facilities Child DeathsChild Deaths Population Size Population Size


Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model

Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializaindustrialization: Stable tion: Stable population population growthgrowth

Stage 2: Stage 2: Rapid Rapid population population growthgrowth

Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued and Continued and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth

Stage 4: Stage 4: Stable low Stable low population population growthgrowth

CBRCBRHigh Birth High Birth ratesrates

High Birth High Birth ratesrates

Falling Birth ratesFalling Birth rates Low Birth Low Birth ratesrates

Family Size Family Size -- planned-- planned

Family Family Planning -- Planning -- The general The general

plan is to plan is to have many have many

kidskids

Family Family Planning -- Planning -- The general The general

plan is to plan is to have many have many

kidskids

Family Planning -- Family Planning -- The plan is to have The plan is to have fewer kidsfewer kids

Trends Trends stabilize stabilize with 2 kid with 2 kid families or families or lessless

Infant Infant Mortality Mortality Rate/ Rate/ Fertility Fertility RateRate

Many children Many children because few because few survive, high survive, high fertility ratefertility rate

Still many Still many kids because kids because expectexpect few to few to survive high survive high

fertilityfertility

Lower infant Lower infant mortality rates -- mortality rates -- less pressure to less pressure to have children, have children, fertility declinesfertility declines

Small family Small family size low size low fertility ratefertility rate

Family Family EconomicsEconomics

Many children Many children are needed to are needed to work the landwork the land

Children are Children are still useful for still useful for work work

Increased Increased mechanization and mechanization and industrialization industrialization means less need means less need for labor/kidsfor labor/kids

Women are Women are working in working in great great numbersnumbers


Demographic Transition ModelDemographic Transition Model

Stage 1 : Stage 1 : Pre Pre industrializindustrialization: ation: Stable Stable population population growthgrowth


Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth


CBRCBRHigh Birth High Birth ratesrates

High Birth High Birth ratesrates

Falling Birth Falling Birth ratesrates

Low Birth Low Birth ratesrates

Status Status of Kidsof Kids

Children are Children are a sign of a sign of virility & virility & status and status and old age old age insuranceinsurance

Children are Children are a sign of a sign of virility & virility & status and status and old age old age insuranceinsurance

Increased Increased desire for desire for material material possessions possessions and less desire and less desire for large for large familiesfamilies

Kids are an Kids are an expense & expense & “bling”“bling”

Gender Gender rolesroles

Strong sex Strong sex rolesroles

Strong sex Strong sex rolesroles

Emancipation Emancipation of womenof women

Emancipation Emancipation of womenof women




Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasing decreasing population population growthgrowth


CDRCDR High Death High Death RatesRates

Falling Death Falling Death RatesRates

Death rates Death rates LowLow

Death rates Death rates LowLow

Health Health ConditiConditionsons

Poor Diet & Poor Diet & Sanitation, Sanitation, Famine and Famine and DiseaseDisease

Improved Improved diet, diet, sanitation & sanitation & medical caremedical care

Slight Slight improvementimprovement

No changeNo change

TranspTransport ort FacilitiFacilitieses

Limited Limited transport, transport, trade & trade & traveltravel

Improved Improved transport to transport to move food move food and doctorsand doctors

Slight Slight ImprovementImprovement

StableStable

Child Child DeathsDeaths

High child High child mortality mortality before age 5before age 5

A decrease in A decrease in child child mortalitymortality

Child Child mortality mortality very lowvery low

StableStable

After Copper, Models of Demography, After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htmhttp://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm




Stage 3: Stage 3: Continued Continued and and decreasindecreasing g population population growthgrowth


Rate Rate Natural Natural IncreaseIncrease

Very Low Very Low GrowthGrowth

High GrowthHigh Growth Slowing Slowing GrowthGrowth Low GrowthLow Growth

Population Population SizeSize

Small Small PopulationPopulation

BiggerBigger BiggerBiggerBiggestBiggest

After Copper, Models of Demography, After Copper, Models of Demography, http://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htmhttp://www.bized.ac.uk/virtual/dc/copper/theory/th10.htm


ExamplesExamples

Sweden – Historic Industrial CountrySweden – Historic Industrial Country Mexico – An Industrializing CountryMexico – An Industrializing Country


Developed Country

Example


Developing Country

Example


Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR


3. TYPES 3. TYPES OF OF DIAGRAMSDIAGRAMS


Types of DiagramsTypes of Diagrams

These diagrams help us to These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impactoperate and its impact– Survivorship DiagramSurvivorship Diagram– Stabilization Ratio DiagramStabilization Ratio Diagram– Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids– Temporal TrendsTemporal Trends– Spatial TrendsSpatial Trends


Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops

Less then 10% reached 25yrs old

Now 90% live past 55yrs old


Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates


HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION HIGHLIGHTS IN WORLD POPULATION GROWTHGROWTH

1 billion in 1 billion in 18041804

3 billion in 3 billion in 1960 (33 1960 (33 years later)years later)




6 billion in 6 billion in 1999 (12 1999 (12 years later) years later)

Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition

About 6.8 bil. currently


Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.htmlhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html

(historical and projected)

YearTotal world population

(mid-year figures)Ten-year growth

rate (%)

1950 2,556,000,053 18.9%

1960 3,039,451,023 22.0

1970 3,706,618,163 20.2

1980 4,453,831,714 18.5

1990 5,278,639,789 15.2

2000 6,082,966,429 12.6

20101

6,848,932,929 10.7

20201

7,584,821,144 8.7

20301

8,246,619,341 7.3

20401

8,850,045,889 5.6

20501

9,346,399,468 —


Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away


Population Pyramids

• Demonstrate where the population is by age cohort

• Also can see Demographic Stage

Guatemala Stage 2

Mexico is going into Stage 3


Demographic IndicatorsBirth Rate: 12 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.8 births Natural increase: 0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 18% under 15 yrs.age

Demographic Indicators Birth Rate: 9 per thousand Total fertility rate: 1.2 births Natural increase: -0.1% per year 1990-2000 Age structure: 14% under 15 yrs.age

Stage 4: Sweden

Italy with declining population. Will there be a Stage 5???


USA – what Stage would you say each of these are???

Interactive Pop Pyramid for USAInteractive Pop Pyramid for USA


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/02/04/business/aging-population.html?ref=business


Japan, an upside down pyramid in the making?


Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility rates.

Result is a decline in CBR

This is a temporal trend diagram.


Spatial Trend Diagram: Countries with higher IM have higher Fertility Rates.


Comparative Temporal and Spatial Data Diagram

What is occuring here? Speculate why.


Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries


Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?


Declining World Mortality Rates Map At the end of the second and the beginning of the third stages of the demographic transition, death rates declined. Where did they first decline and where did they last decline?

Created by Ingolf Vogeler on 1 February 1996 http://www.uwec.edu/geography/Ivogeler/w111/dempop.htm


ONE LAST ONE LAST CONCEPTCONCEPT


Dependency RatioDependency Ratio

Ratio of non-working population to Ratio of non-working population to working age populationworking age population

Non-Workers are the young and aged Non-Workers are the young and aged retireesretirees– young are usually 15 yrs old and belowyoung are usually 15 yrs old and below– retirees are usually 64 yrs old and retirees are usually 64 yrs old and

aboveabove


Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly.

However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow.


Dependency Ratio WoesDependency Ratio Woes

A rising dependency ratio is A rising dependency ratio is also also a a concern in many countries that are concern in many countries that are facing facing aging populationsaging populations, since it , since it becomes difficult for pension and becomes difficult for pension and social security systems to provide to social security systems to provide to retirees.retirees.

© Copyright 2006, From The Wilderness Publications, www.fromthewilderness.com. All Rights Reserved. This story may NOT be posted on any Internet web site without express written permission. Contact [email protected]. May be circulated, distributed or transmitted for non-profit purposes only.


Japan showing its high number of dependants to working age population

•lots of elderly (nearly black color)

• Working age population (purple color)

•few kids (dark purple color)

Result is high Dependency Ratio

Play time: Hans RoslingPlay time: Hans Rosling


http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen.html

Play time: gapminder.comPlay time: gapminder.com


http://www.gapminder.org/

http://www.gapminder.org/