Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe
(a growing supply imbalance)
J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar RempelFederal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR),
Hannover, Germany
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Reserves• hydrocarbon quantities proven in fields• can be produced economically with current technologies
.
Resources• geologically identified hydrocarbons which can’t be economically produced under present conditions
• unidentified but expected hydrocarbons due to geological reasons in equivalent regions (yet to find)
Hereby we consider for resources as well as for reserves the recoverable amount
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Definitions
Area : 575.000 km2
Surrounding countries : UK, NO, DK, GE Water depth : avg. 70 m, max. 725 m HC provinces : Northern North Sea (Oil + G) Central North Sea (Oil + C + G)
Southern North Sea (Gas) NOT included : Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea
Atlantic marginIWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Basic data
Production history : Oil 1st discovery : 1969 (Ekofisk) Peak discovery : 19741st production : 1971Peak production : 2000Cum. production : 4.6 Gt (end of 2001)Reserves : 3.1 GtResources : 2.0 Gt
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Bild
Production history
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaOil Production
1970 1980 1990 20000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
DenmarkGermanyNetherlandsNorwayUK
Mt
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaCumulative Production and Reserves
1970 1980 1990 20000
2
4
6
8
10Gt
Cumulative Production
Reserves
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaCumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio
1970 1980 1990 20000
2
4
6
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
50Gt
Cumulative Production
Reserves
R/P
years
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
0
2
4
6
- 2
- 4
- 6
Gt
50 % depletion mid-point5
0%0
31.12.2001
Gt 10 100%
Resources
2 Gt
Reserves
3 Gt
Produced
5 Gt
production until2026 with anannual decrease of
6 %
4 %
2 %
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaProduction Profile and Giant Fields
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 20450
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Pr
oduc
tion
Mt/a
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
Gia
nt F
ield
Dis
cove
ry in
Mt
forecastDepletion rate after 2001: 8.5 %
Reserve additions: 2002 - 2010: 100 Mt/a 2011 - 2025: 50 Mt/a
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaOil Consumption of Western Europe and EU
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Consumption WE Consumption EU
Mt
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Consumption WE Consumption EU Share WE Share EU
North SeaOil Consumption of Western Europe and EU
North Sea's Share to their Oil SupplyMt (%)
oil gas
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Production history : Natural Gas 1st discovery : 1965 (West Sole) Peak discovery : 19791st production : 1967Peak production : 2005 ??Cum. production : 3.0 T.m3 (end of 2001)Reserves : 4.6 T.m3 Resources : 1.7 T.m3
Bild
Production history
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Natural Gas Production
North Sea
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
50
100
150
200
250
Denmark Germany Netherland Norway UK
G.m³
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaCumulative Production and Reserves
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
2
4
6
8T.m³
Cumulative Production
Reserves
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaCumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
2
4
6
8
0
20
40
60
80T.m³
Cumulative Production
Reserves
R/P
years
0
2
4
6
8
- 2
- 4
T.m³
50 % depletion mid-point4.65
0%0
31.12.2001
T.m³9.3 100%
Resources 1.7 T.m³
Reserves
4.6 T.m³
Produced
3.0 T.m³
production until2026 with anannual increase of
- 4 %
0 %
2 %
- 6 %
-2 %
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
100
200
300
400
500
600
Consumption WE Consumption EU
North SeaNatural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU
G.m³
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Consumption WE Consumption EU Share WE Share EU
North SeaNatural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU
North Sea's Share to their Gas Supply(%)G.m³
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Countries with oil reserves > 1 Gt
Strategic Ellipsecontaining ca. 70 % of world oil reserves
> 1 - 10 Gt> 10 - 20 Gt
> 20 Gt
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Countries with natural gas reserves > 1 T.m³
Strategic Ellipsecontaining ca. 70 % of world oil reserves
> 1 - 5 T.m³> 5 - 10 T.m³
> 20 T.m³
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
The Mediterranean - EUR of crude oil and NGL in Mt (Only countries with EUR > 200 Mt)
(database: end 2000)
...
A l g e r i a
E g y p t
L i b y a
T u n e s i a
Israel
Leba-non
I t a l y
F r a n c e
S p a i nPortugal
Switzerland A u s t r i a
T u r k e y Greece
Albania
SloveniaCroatiaBosniaHerzogo- vina
Hungary
Mace-donia
Romania
Ukraine
Bulgaria
R u s s i a
Geor- giaYugos-
lavia
S y r i a
Jordan
Saudi
Arabia
2,410
544
5,159
323
221Syria
A l g e r i a L i b y a
M o r o c c o
7,947
Cum.Production
Reserves
Resources
Moldova
1,302
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
The Mediterranean - EUR of natural gas in Gm³ (Only countries with EUR > 200 Gm³)
(database: end 2000)
E g y p t
T u n e s i a
Israel
Leba-non
I t a l y
F r a n c e
S p a i nPortugal
Switzerland A u s t r i a
Greece
Albania
SloveniaCroatiaBosniaHerzogo- vina
Hungary
Mace-donia
Romania
UkraineMoldova
Bulgaria
R u s s i a
Geor- giaYugos-
lavia
Jordan
Saudi
Arabia
Cum.Production
Reserves
Resources
Syria
A l g e r i a
L i b y a
M a r o c c o
729
1,334
T u r k e y
483Syria
2,4282,065
Cum.Production
Reserves
Resources
394
7,161
Pipeline-Network with Destinations and Refineries
Balkhash Sea-
Aral
Sea
SEA
CASPIAN
BLACK SEA
Issyk- Kul
H
I ND
UK U S H
K o
p e t d a g
K
y s y l k u m
Ka
r a k
um
P A M I R
T
I E N S C HA
N
E l b u r sZ a g r o s
C
u c
a
a
s
u
s
CPC
SOYUS
DRUZHBA
AFGHANISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
U Z B E K I S T A N KIRGISISTAN
I R A NI R A Q
R U S S I AN F E D E R A T I O N
K A Z A K H S T A N
PAKISTAN
INDIEN
GEORGIA
U K R A I N E
KABUL
BISCHKEK
DUSHANBEASHGABAD
BAKU
TEHERAN
ERIEWAN
ASTANA
Boundaries
Capitals
LEGEND
Oil pipelinesGas pipelines
Oil refineries
Gas processing plants
Terminals
Oil fieldsGas fieldsGas-condensate fields
Oil pipeline projectsGas pipeline projects
0 500 km
TPP
PakistanPakistanPersian
Gulf
PersianGulf
Moscow
ChinaJapan
ChinaJapan
TAJIKISTAN
ASOVSSEA
S Ü D L. U R A L
Ceyhan(Mediter.Sea)
Turkey(Mediterranean Sea)
T U R K E Y
TIFLIS
WesternEurope
SE-EuropeTurkey
ARMENIA
H i g h l a n d o f I r a n
TASHKENT
from W-Siberia
AZER-BAIJAN
L o w e r C a u c a s u s
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Conclusions - Oil• North Sea is a mature oil province• peak production occurred in 2001• reserves underestimated ?• annual production decline will be
> 5 %• accordingly, western Europe‘s oil
import dependance will increaseIWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Conclusions - Natural Gas• North Sea is a mature gas province• annual production is still increasing• peak production in front - 2005 ?• production can be kept stable for
another 1 – 2 decades
• But: due to the increase in demand, western Europe‘s import dependance will rise
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Conclusions - External Supplies
• Russia (gas / oil)• Northern Africa (gas / oil)• Middle East (oil / gas?)• Caspian (oil / gas?)• Western Africa (oil)
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdöl363 Mrd. t
Kum. Förderung
Reserven
Ressourcen
Stand: 31.12.2001
57
16
3333
146
23
55
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdgas425 Bill. m³
Kum. Förderung
Reserven
Ressourcen
Stand: 31.12.2001
65
24
1833
91 38
164
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
North SeaShare of world
Cons
umpt
ion
Cons
umpt
ion
Prod
uctio
n
Reser
ves
Resou
rces
Cons
umpt
ion
Cons
umpt
ion
Prod
uctio
n
Reser
ves
Resou
rces
0
4
8
12
16
20
W-Euro
pe
W-E
urop
e
%
Natural gasOil
IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002
1930 1950 2000 20500
2
4
6
8
10
Mt/y
1968
1950
1962
1975
2000
depletionmid-point
11 y 14 y
17 y 20 y
12 y 14 y
16 y 5y
34 y 2217
cum. prod.up to 1930:c. 2 Mt
at 2050: remaining c. 4 Mtproduction c. 0.2 Mt
time
EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) 320 Mt (10 )produced as per 31.12.2000 255 Mt
remaining: reserves 50 Mt"yet to find" 15 Mt
on the basis of data from 305 oilfields
6
1950: post war boom 38 Mt 1.1 Mt 34 yrs. 233 yrs.1962: max. reserves 113 6.8 17 201968: max. production 89 8.3 11 141975: depletion mid-point 72 5.8 12 142000: current status 50 3.1 16 5
"yet to find" figures on the basis of current EUR
reserves production static lifetime ofreserves "yet to find"
2000
produced255 Mt
remaining65 Mt
EOR effective
German oil production 1930 - 2050
Supplemented after HILLER 1997