Development Risks: Analysis, Valuation
and Regulation
Prof. Mikhail M. Soloviev2015
Valuation & Development Business
Principle role of Risk
• The pair “Investment Potential - Risks” is one of the main characteristics for investment attractiveness and development for all hierarchy levels of economics: country, regions, etc.
• Measure of risks is reflected through different kinds of expert data and quantitative coefficients: • qualitative estimations, ranks;
• discount coefficients – in the DCF concepts, e.g. for investment projects analysis & business-plans;
• yield – for risk reflection in Real Estate market statistics, for development projects analysis, etc.
Sample: The RF REGIONS’ ranking:investment potential & risks
LOCO &GROWTH
POTENTIAL
PROBLEMS SPECIAL ATTENTION
90s-2005
High Potential
High Risks
TOP REGIONS:Moscow Moscow region (oblast)S-Petersburg
Ural regionsKhanty Mansy (Oil-Gas)Volga regions Rostov-Krasnodar (Sochi)
Low Risks& Potential
EUROPE Prosperity of the 2007-2008
Investment Prospects &City Risk-Free
Moscow: both extreme ranks
CITIES
RISK-FREE
INVESTMENTS
«EuroProperty» Data (2004)
Risk is a probable loss. In principle waited results of any realized processes may be worse because of different negative factors influence.
So the Development Risks (in our course context) are the probable development results losses because of negative factors acting, interaction problems between participants of the real estate development projects.
Development Risks: basis concepts
CONSUMERS (RE Investors)
BUILDERS
DEVELOPMENT
SOCIETY,AUTHORITUES
FINANCIALINSITUTIONS
Environment
DEVELOPMENT
SOCIETY,AUTHORITUES
Risks of problematic interactions with Authorities and Society
• Authority risk influence– Planning permission (Town Planning rules)– General plan’s zoning, restrictions, etc.– Demands for RE improvement / Planning Gain
• Society influence– Objections (protests): green, historical, cultural,
ecology, environment pressure, etc.– Public opinion– Mass media pressure …
Risks of interactions with Authorities and Society
BUILDERS& …
DEVELOPMENT
Risks of problematic interactions with Builders & other Contractors
Problems and influences:• To find reliable & high quality contractors
for the project management, projecting & building works, & other special activities.
• To fulfill all the project works – in time (good planning & work organization, in
time delivery, etc.) – with confirmed quality level (TQM-systems) – according to the confirmed quantity calculations
• To have good decision making means for analysis and possible corrections
Risks of interactions with Builders & other Contractors
DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIALINSITUTIONS
Financial Risks
• To find corresponding creditors / banks (good rank, traditions, previous experience …)
• To confirm corresponding credit conditions (credit line, %, repayment conditions, penalties…)
• Financial risks during the project realization (materials and contractors works prices alters, current payments problems, additional demands expenditures, e.g. for environment protection, etc.)
• Difficulties with the project results profitable (in time and with VfM) market realization.
Financial Risks
Development Project: possible balanced finance diversification
BANKS
CONTRACTOR
FUTURE CLIENT DEVELOPER
STRATEGYINVESTOR
CONSUMERS(RE Investors)
DEVELOPMENT
Risks of interactins with investors (consumers, results buyers)
Risks of interactions with investors (consumers, results buyers)
• Risks concerned with the concrete investor participation in the project financing according to confirmed conditions.
• Risks concerned with alters of investor demands for the project characteristics.
• Risks - with the project results selling to the investor in time & according to waited cost.
• Risks concerned with problems to operate efficiently with the unsold developed object.
DEVELOPMENT
Environment
Risks of external and internal environment influences
• External environment influences - such as conditions and tendencies:– Economy of state, region (investment rank,
GDP, recession, growth potential, reforms …)– Social, Political, Ecology, etc.– Market competitions and competitors acts …
• Internal conditions and tendencies– Financial and other principle characteristics – Internal alters (reforms, alters in strategy,
renewing plans, portfolio alters, etc.) – Management (staff, leadership, experience …)
Risks of external and internal environment influences
Developer Portfolio Strategiesduring the crisis process
Selling part of projects
RISKS: ANALYSIS and MEASURE
CONCEPTS and METHODS
•Sensibility concept and methods•Stochastic approaches
•Others (e.g. net-analysis / critical way, decision-trees, analogies, etc.)
Sources of the development risks are concerned with insufficiency of information (for project, participants, market environment, etc.), e.g.:
(1) information uncertainty,(2) inaccuracy or non-
correspondence,(3) information absence or not in time, (4) non-synonymous (diapason), etc.
Risks’ sources
WAITED RESULTS
FACTORS of INFLUENCE
Sensibility Risk-Analysis Concept
Y=Y(xi, … xj) Ym
xim
xjm
∆Y (∆Xi) – deviations of results
MODEL of Interacting
Ym
Sample of the diapason data influence (onto the Capitalization Value)
CHARACTERISTICS / DATA DESIGNATIONS MEANING
RENT (annual) g ($/m²) 400-360 (-10%)RENTING SQUARE S (m²) 2000USING SQUARE I (%/100) 0,8OPERATIONAL INCOME giS ($) 640000 - 576000
MAINTENANCE (annual) J(S) ($) 100 000OTHER FACILITIES (annual) F ($) 60 000OPERATIONAL EXPENDITURES F+J(S) ($) 160 000
FUTURE PROFIT giS-(F+J(S)) ($) 480000 - 416000
CAPITALIZATION RATE (yield) k (%/100) 0,12
CAPITALIZATION VALUE A=(giS-(F+J(S))/k ($) 4000.000-3466.67 losses -13.33%
Risk Factors different influence onto the Capitalization Value
1. Operation Incomes• Rent payment (-10% -13.33%)• Adequate influence – in concern with
squares under renting (measure of filling)
2. Operation expenditures• Management, maintenance and other
facilities (+10% → - 3,33%)
• INDEXES Designations & Measure Quantity / Value• Rent index (annual) g ($/m2) 350-400• Square for renting S (m2) 2000• Occupation I (%/100) 0,8• Operational (annual) INCOME giS ($) 560000 - 640000
• Maintenance (annual) J(S) ($) 1000000• Other operational payments (a year) F ($) 600000• TOTAL Operational expenditures F+J(S) ($) 1600000
----------------------------------------• FUTURE NET INCOME giS-(F+J(S)) ($) 4000000 - 4800000
• Yield k (%/100) 0,12 - 0,14
• CAPITALIZED VALUE A=(giS-(F+J(S))/k ($) 28600000 - 40000000=======================
• Development expenditures B= (Bld+C+D)(1+р) ($) 25000000-27500000
• Project’s Profitability R=(A–B)/B *100 (%) Rmax=60% Rmin=4%
Input dataintegralextreme
deviationsand
profitabilityresults
Sensibility extreme analysis
– One-parameter methods • Sensibility analysis and ranking, • Boundaries and Extreme data definition, • Sensibility lines and Spider characteristics•
– Two-parameter methods• Pairs comparing,• Compensation opportunity seeking
(invariants)
– Multi-parameter methods • Scenarios analysis, • Multi-parameter compensations seeking
Variety of the Sensibility concept using
+ +• effectiveness and variety of practical using, • simplicity, operative and visual results presentation - -- probability component is absent - risk factor had already taken place: р=1.0- indefiniteness modeling only through static coefficient ranges (p=1.0)
Positive and negative properties of the Sensibility Methods
WAITED RESULTS
FACTORS of INFLUENCE: probable distribution
Stochastic Risk-Analysis: Monte Carlo Concept
Y=Y(xi, … xj) Ym
xim
xjm
∆Y (∆Xi) – probable characteristics of the results’ deviation
MODEL of Interacting
Ym
Information base includes probability characteristics on the model inputModeling results are output probability characteristics (e.g. as the probable density distribution)
Input dataxiStochastic alters
Stochastic Risk-Analysis: Monte Carlo information base
& results
Risk probability measure
Risk probability measure is connected with the probability density characteristics as the 2nd moment (Dispersion – D, or Average Quadratic Deviation - σ²)
σ² = Σ[(xi – x*)²] / n i={1,n},
x*– current meaning, xi – average (arithmetic) meaning.
MULTI-MODAL probability distribution function for NPV
Non-Symmetry NPV function
Probable image of different projects NPV
Project 1Project 2
Risk policy and regulations
Risk Avoiding Risk Decreasing
→0 →min
Probability Losses
Development projects’ (profitability)risk influence fields & risk policyOperation incomes Better MarketingOperation expendituresOutsourcingBuilding process Best contractingDeveloper expenditures Economy… …
ПРОБЛЕМЫ ЭКОЛОГИИ: СОЧИ-2014ПРОБЛЕМЫ ЭКОЛОГИИ: СОЧИ-2014
ГРУШЕВЫЙ ХРЕБЕТ
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РАЗМЕЩЕНИЕ ОЛИМПИЙСКОЙ ДЕРЕВНИ, САННО-БОБСЛЕЙНОЙ РАЗМЕЩЕНИЕ ОЛИМПИЙСКОЙ ДЕРЕВНИ, САННО-БОБСЛЕЙНОЙ ТРАССЫ И БИАТЛОННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ ГРУШЕВОГО ТРАССЫ И БИАТЛОННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ ГРУШЕВОГО
ХРЕБТАХРЕБТА
Replaced objects
Caucasus BiosphereReserve
Mountain Olympic objects*
Replacing number of objects from protected zone
To Coastal Cluster
Mountain Olympicobjects**
Risk avoiding: Ecology problems solving by Olympic objects Replacing
Earthquakes danger & Transcontinental Pipeline “East Siberia – Pacific Ocean”
Trajectory Variants
Lake BaikalSeismic zones
Strategic Alternative for Directionof the Transcontinental Pipelines
ArcticOcean
The East SiberiaOil-Gas provinces
Risks value and regulations in the management of organization
• Development risks take place among other acts & decision making of the organization.
So:
• Development risks are regulated together with other activities` risks.
• Development risk policy is chosen and realized together with other policies of the organization such as: economy policy, social responsibility, innovation strategy, etc.
Pass to Business Game “Auction: Land Site purchase for its Development”
Decision making in the market environment.
Land site Auction – Win for development project realization
– Providing the project efficiency.
So:• Choice and following to own “risk / economy” policy in the Action competition. • Decision making as the bidding price argued choice on the project efficiency value basis.