‘Disaster and Emergency Relief Framework’
IRDA, NDMA & FICCI Seminar
A Presentation A Presentation
Man-made Disasters versus Act of Godbyby
Mr. Yogesh LohiyaMr. Yogesh LohiyaCMD, GIC ReCMD, GIC Re
1111thth August 2010, New Delhi August 2010, New Delhi
Section ISection IAct of God?
-A Global Perspective
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DisastersNatural Vs Man-made
• Man-made (generally localized) Industrial accidents.
• Natural (Act of God) (area of spread is vast) Earthquakes/ Tsunami/ Cyclones.
• High Volume of losses in both cases. • Mitigation (long term process) & relief
measures (immediate) cannot be largely different.
• Preventive measures are not a general trend and largely ignored by the society.
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• People do not voluntarily adopt simple and cost effective loss prevention measures
• Underestimate the likelihood of a disaster more so happening to them.
• Myopic behavior impedes the process of loss prevention.
• Faith in the government to take steps to prevent & protect from disasters.
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DisastersNatural Vs Man-made
Catastrophes : Some Facts
• There are twice as many people on Earth today as there were in 1950.
• A greater concentration of values than in 1950.– 4 times more globally– 6 times more in third world countries
• Most of the growth concentrated in coastal areas– More prone to weather risks (cyclones)
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Catastrophes: Some Facts• Catastrophes are more frequent now
–3 fold increase in numbers as in 1950
• Catastrophes are more severe in intensity–8 fold increase in severity as in 1950
• Increase in insured losses- 15 X.
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Catastrophes in 2009
• Total Catastrophes: 288– Natural Catastrophes: 133– Man made Catastrophes: 155
• Loss of lives: 15,000– Natural Catastrophes: 9,000– Man made Catastrophes: 6,000
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Number of Cat Events-1970-2009
8Swiss Re, sigma No 1/2010
Nat Cats in 2009
• Hydrological disasters (floods) remained the most common disasters in 2009, accounting for 53.7 percent.
• Followed by storms (hurricanes) accounting for 25.4 percent.
• Geophysical disasters (earthquakes, volcanoes) accounted for 2.7 percent.
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Nat Cat :1970-2009Number of Victims
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Catastrophes in 2009
• Economic damages: US $ 62 billion– Natural Catastrophes: US $ 41 billion – Man made Catastrophes: US $ 21 billion
• Cost of Man-made disasters (insured losses): US $ 4 billion
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Insured Cat Losses 1970-2009
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Section IISection IIExposure to Natural Catastrophes in India
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INDIA – INDIA – Vulnerability To Natural Catastrophes Vulnerability To Natural Catastrophes
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• Indian sub-continent Indian sub-continent considered one of the considered one of the most hazard-prone most hazard-prone countries in the worldcountries in the world
• 85% of land area 85% of land area
vulnerable to various vulnerable to various types of Natural types of Natural CatastrophesCatastrophes
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EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
• Seismically active• 59% of prone to EQs
• Four EQs above 8 & ten above 7.5 on Richter Scale in the last 100 years.
• Seven in the last 2 decades
• Dense Population & Old Construction adds to the problem.
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CYCLONES•8041 km long coastline•Large Coastline; large population; large destruction.
•Tropical Cyclones generally strike Eastern coast•Western Coast too is struck•Thunderstorms (Nor’westers) common in NE, NW, Central & SW India
•Cyclone associated strong winds & rains compound the destruction. •Floods & Coastal Inundations too are a risk.•15 cyclones have struck the Indian coast in last 100 years.
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FLOODS• India is the 2nd most flood
affected country after Bangladesh
• 40 mln hectares land mass prone to floods; 8 mln hectares affected annually.
• Rising population; developmental activities in flood plains make it more disastrous.
• Climate change also makes weather volatile leading to disasters.
• Avg. Annual Loss: US$ 400Mln.
• Urban Floods & Inundations are a new phenomena now.• Mumbai Floods (2005)
Section IIISection IIIAre Natural Catastrophes
Act of God?
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Cat Events in India
• “Disastrous Weather Event” in Leh on 6.8.10• IOC Jaipur Fire 2009• Mahul Oil Installations in Mumbai• Surat Floods 2005 • Mumbai Floods 2005 • Plague/H1N1 Flu/ Bird Flu- 1994/ 2009 & 2010
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Catastrophic Events- Impact on India
• Loss of Life & Property on a large scale• Majority of the affected uninsured• Direct Losses due to natural disasters
amount to (average per annum)-– 2% of India’s Gross Domestic Product– 12% of Federal Government’s Revenues
• All alleviation/ mitigation efforts post-event
• Disruption of Trade & Commerce
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Catastrophic Events- Impact on India
• Some of the worst CAT losses have occurred in India
• Top in natural-disaster-caused mortality in 2009: 1806 victims in India
• Low values & Low penetration are the causes• Catastrophe Risk Mapping is not complete• Detailed data is not available• Geographical Position makes us vulnerable
to events occurring in neighbouring areas. – (Tsunami/ Earthquakes)
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T h a n k Y o u
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