Disruption and Transformation of the ICT Industry After COVID
Jason Schenker CMT® CFP® FLTACertified Futurist and Long-Term Analyst
NACD Governance FellowPresident of Prestige Economics
Chairman of The Futurist Institute
COVID-19 Disruption
Technology Saved the Day – and was Already Ascending
• Remote Work
• Online Education
• E-Commerce
Global ICT Market Forecasts – Trillions USD
Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
ForecastsHistorical
Global ICT Industry Breakdown (2019) / New Technologies to Grow
Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
New Technologies in ICT Industry Breakdown
Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Remote Work
FT Survey: Most Critical Technologies Impacting Millennial Future Work
Source: Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/0c7906d6-be89-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2
*Based on Interviews with 16-25 year olds in 9 countries.
**Percent who named the driver in their top 3.
34%
33%
28%
27%
25%
21%
20%
Mobile/Internet/Cloud Technology
Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning
The Rise of Big Data
The Internet of Things
Advanced Robotics/AutonomousTransport
Advanced Manufacturing/3D Printing
Shifts in Gender Equality
Change in Commuter Mode Change Between 2005 and 2015
Source: Global Workplace Analytics, Flexjobs, U.S. Census Data, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Recent Averages on U.S. Remote Work
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Occupational Remote Workers
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, LLC
American Workers who Teleworked or Worked from Home at any Time in September 2020 Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic – by Education
Education Level 25 Years and Over
1 Data refer to those who teleworked or worked at home for pay specifically because of the coronavirus pandemic. This does not include those whose telework was unrelated to the pandemic, such as those who worked entirely from home before the pandemic.
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Education
Source: Class Central: https://www.class-central.com/report/moocs-2015-stats/
Growth of Massive Open Online Courses
Source: BLS, Prestige Economics
Relationship Between Education, Unemployment and Wages
Source: Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn (2016) calculations based on the PIAAC 2012, White House, Prestige Economics.
Share of Jobs with Highly Automatable Skills by Education
44%
19%
8%6%
1% 0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Less than HighSchool
Diploma
High SchoolDiploma orEquivalent
Trade SchoolCertificate
AssociatesDegree
BachelorsDegree
GraduateDegree
Supply Chain
E-Commerce Retailer Percent
Source: Census, FRED, Prestige Economics, LLC
Future New Orders for Material Handling Show Record Strength
Source: MHI, Prestige Economics, LLC
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
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Future New Orders (12-Months Ahead, Compared to Current)
Future New Orders
Six-Month Moving Average
Expansion > 50Breakeven = 50Contraction < 50
Breakeven Line
Total Major PMIs Expanding
Source: Markit, ISM, Prestige Economics, LLC
Looking Beyond 2021
Risks and Opportunities for ICT Industries
• Regulation
• Governance
• Trade War
• Remote Life
• Convenience
• Automation ROI
• Safety and Contactless
• Data Volume and IoT
Risks Opportunities
Moore’s Law is Breaking Down
Source: Ray Kurzweil, DFJ, Rodney Brooks, Prestige Economics LLC, The Futurist Institute
Big Uses and Successes by Implementation Difficulty
Source: HBR, NewVantage Partners Big Data Executive Survey (2017), Prestige Economics
Easiest
Toughest
Cut Costs
Finding New Innovations
Transforming a Business
Establish a Data Driven Culture
Global ICT Market Forecasts
Source: IDC, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
ForecastsHistorical
Quantum Computing
Source: Image Courtesy of Google
Global and Korean Trends in ICT
Regional Dynamics ICT Breakdown with Asian Importance
Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Emerging ICT Activities with Asian Importance
Data Source: 2017 Data from IDCAnalysis from: Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
Korean ICT Market Importance Growing – Forecasts in Trillions KRW
Source: Statista, Prestige Economics, The Futurist Institute
ForecastsHistorical
Represents around 10% of global ICT
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