April 8, 2020
Dr. David Eifrig Matt WeinschenkEditor Senior Analyst
Retirement MillionaireIncome IntelligenceRetirement TraderAdvanced Options
Conversation #3
April 8, 2020
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April 8, 2020
U.S. Deaths Easing?
April 8, 2020
U.S. Cases Bending the Curve
April 8, 2020
Another View…
April 8, 2020
New York Getting Better
April 8, 2020
State-by-State (Last Week)
April 8, 2020
State-by-State
April 8, 2020
Best Case Worst CaseBaseline• Other states don’t
get as bad as NewYork
• 2 weeks to peak• Businesses start to
reopen• Testing available to
prevent resurgence
• 4 to 6 weeks to peak• Resurgence causes
more negative headlines.
• Certain localities have big problems
• A significant number of small businesses fail
• Economy struggles to recover (but does)
• Repeated resurgence
• 6-8 months of uncertainty
• Unemployment ≈ 20%
• Long, slow recovery
New Outlook!
April 8, 2020
GDP Forecasts
April 8, 2020
Small Business Optimism
April 8, 2020
Deficit and Unemployment
April 8, 2020
Deficit and Unemployment
April 8, 2020
Credit Spreads Still High
April 8, 2020
Long-Term View
April 8, 2020
VIX Easing Off Peak
April 8, 2020
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April 8, 2020
