Drought Contingency Planning in the
Colorado River BasinAmy I. Haas
Deputy Executive Director
and General Counsel
Upper Colorado River Commission
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2007 Interim Guidelines
Lower Basin shortage guidelines
Coordinated reservoir operations
Storage and delivery of conserved water (ICS)
Surplus guidelines
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Basin Hydrology--How Bad Is It?
WY 2017—good hydrology
However,
1. 6 of last 17 years of inflows into Lake Powell were less than 5 million acre-feet
2. Above-average inflows into Lake Powell have occurred only 4 years since 2000
3. 3 of the 4 lowest years on record have occurred during the 17-year drought, with 2012 and 2013 being the driest consecutive two-year period in recorded history
Drought and Climate Change—How Bad Is It?• 18th year of drought in the Basin• 2012 Basin Study
• 9 percent projected reduction in flow• Increase in drought frequency and duration
• 2014--7.48 MAF Powell release • 2017 Udall and Overpeck
• 19.3 percent reduction in flow 2000 – 2014• 1/3 or more due to warming
• 35 percent plus reduction in flow for remainder of century with status quo emissions
Worst Case Implications of Critically Low Reservoir Levels
• Upper Basin compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact could be jeopardized
• Lake Powell could drop below level required to generate hydropower
• Environmental compliance compromised due to loss of hydropower funds
• Upper Basin wants to control its own destiny
“Drought Contingency Planning” (DCP)• Proactively guarding against potential adverse
consequences of critically dry conditions
• Reducing risk of dropping below critical reservoir elevations and incurring severe reductions in use
• Maintaining compliance with Law of the River
• Respecting intra-state water allocation and admin
• Avoiding litigation
Draft Lower Basin DCPPotential key elements include:
AZ, NV make DCP contributions beginning at Lake Mead elevation 1,090’ to 1,025’
In addition to ‘07 Guidelines reductions
CA makes contributions beginning at 1,045’
Max DCP/07 Guidelines reductions=1.1 MAF
Recovery of DCP contributions possible if Mead recovers to certain elevation
Expires in 2025
Upper Basin Contingency Planning: Three Components
• Drought Operations of certain Upper Basin reservoirs
• Demand Management—facilitation of temporary, voluntary and compensated reductions in consumptive uses
• Weather Modification– snowpack augmentation through cloud seeding
Drought Operations
Lake Powell
Blue Mesa
ReservoirNavajo ReservoirFlaming Gorge
Reservoir
Agree on triggers and operations to
implement under emergency
conditions to maintain minimum
power pool elevation at Lake Powell
By conserving water (temporarily) in
Lake Powell or moving water
available from upper CRSP facilities.
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Drought Ops Agreement-Key Terms
Powell at 3,525’* –critical elevation for initiating drought response
24-Month Study as basis (minimum probable inflow forecast)
3,525’ v 3,490 as trigger elevation
Consultation immediately upon deployment of drought response
“Bending the Curve” at Lake Powell
Demand Management
Evaluate alternatives to
facilitate temporary, voluntary,
and compensated reductions
in consumptive use through
willing seller/willing buyer
arrangements
Examples - temporary or
rotational fallowing, municipal
conservation, interruptible
supply agreements, deficit
irrigation of crop land, system
efficiencies, conservation, etc.
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Snowpack Augmentation
• Established programs may Western states
• Major ten year pilot study in Wyoming
• Increased precipitation by between 5 and 15%
• Economical
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US-Mexico
• 1944 Treaty
• Minute 317
• Minute 318
• Minute 319
• Minute 323
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“We have an unknown distance yet to run, an unknown river to explore”
-John Wesley Powell