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D bo bng m hnh ARIMA(AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average)
1. Tnh dng v tnh ma va. Tnh dng
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T8 fem chui Rice cC dng +h0ng
T
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nh
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nh j
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nh k
Nh# vP. chui RI;t ch#a dng8 9a cC th7 l. sai "hOn Pc Q cFa chui n.8
9hD 5em %& th6 orrelogram cFa chui sai "hOn Pc Q
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Nh# vP. sau +hi l. sai "hOn Pc Q chui % dng:d=Q! A t`t nhanh vb sau Q % tr*H=Q! >A giYm nhanh vb sau Q % tr*:"=Q
C th7 sD dEng m0 hnh ARIMA (Q!Q!Q)
". +,' -/ng v 0$%m *nh v,$ m hnh ARIMA
k
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nh
nh Q
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nh QQ
nh QT
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nh Q
Nh# vP.! sai sU cFa m0 hnh ARIMA(Q!Q!Q) l mt chui dng v nC cC "hOn "hUi chun8Jai sU n. l nhi*u tr`ng8
. Th' h$3n d bo9'i cDa s1 ;Huation cFa "h#$ng trnh! m n3t porecast
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nh Q
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Q
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nh Qk
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nh Q
QT
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nh Q
Q