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Earned Schedule …a n em e r g i n g e n h a n c e m e n t t o E VM
Walt Lipkebrought to you by the PMI MetSIG and Cheetah Learning
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Brought To You By
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Objective
• Introduce the Earned Schedule Concept
• Develop the Schedule Indicators
• Apply to Project Duration Prediction
• Apply to Schedule Analysis
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Earned Value Basics
Time
$$
PVEVSPI
ACEVCPI
BAC
PV
AC
EV
SV
CV
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EVM Schedule Indicators
• SV & SPI behave erratically for projects behind schedule
– SPI im pro ves and equals 1.00 at end of pr oject
– S V im p r o v e s an d c o n c lu d e s a t $0 v ar ia n c e
• Schedule indicators lose predictive ability over the last third
of the project
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EVM Schedule Indicators
• Why does this happen?
– SV = EV – PV
– SPI = EV / PV
• At planned completion PV = BAC
• At actual completion EV = BAC• When actual > planned completion
– SV = BAC – BAC = $000
– SPI = BAC / BAC = 1.00
Regardless of lateness !!
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Earned Schedule Concept
The cumulative value of ES is
found by using EV to identify
in which increment of PV the
cost value occurs.
7 months gone by, but the project only has “Earned Schedule” to Month 5W h i c h S V “A n s w e r s th e ma i l ? ” $ b eh i n d o r 2 mo n th s b e h i n d s c h e d u l e ?
$
5
Σ PV
Σ EV
Time Now
71 2 3 4 6 8 9 10
A
B
SVc
SVtES
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Earned Schedule Metric
• Required measures
– Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) – thetime phased planned values (PV) from project start tocompletion
– Earned Value (EV) – the planned value which has
been “earned” – Actual Time (AT) - the actual time duration from the
project beginning to the time at which project status isassessed
• All measures available from EVM
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Earned Schedule Calculation
• ES (cumulative) is the:Number of completed PV time increments EV exceeds +the fraction of the incomplete PV increment
• ES = C + I where:C = number of time increments for EV PV
I = (EV – PVC) / (PVC+1 – PVC)
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Interpolation Calculation
$$
I /1 mo = p / q
I = (p / q) 1 mo
p = EV – PVCq = PVC+1 – PVC
I = 1moEV – PVC
PVC+1 – PVC
PVC+1
ES(calc)
EV
PVC
ES
JulyJuneMay
1 mo
I
p
q
Time
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Earned Schedule Indicators
• Schedule Variance:
SV(t) = ES – AT
• Schedule Performance Index:
SPI(t) = ES / AT
where AT is “Actual Time” – the duration from start to time now
• SV(t) and SPI(t) are time-based (months, weeks …)
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Earned Schedule Indicators
• What happens to the ES indicators, SV(t) & SPI(t), when theplanned project duration (PD) is exceeded (PV = BAC)?
They Still Work …Correctly!!• ES will be PD, while AT > PD
– SV(t) will be negative (time behind schedule) – SPI(t) will be < 1.00
Reliable Values from Start to Finish !!
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Schedule Variance Comparison
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
-3
-2
-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SV($) SV(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
$ Mo
$ Mo
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Schedule Index Comparison
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
SPI($) SPI(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
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Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1
Cost and Schedule Variances
at Project Projection: Week Starting 15th July xx
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1 5 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2 8 29 30 31 32 33 34
Elapsed Weeks
D o l l a r s ( , 0 0 0 )
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
W e e k s
CV cum SV cum Target SV & CV SV (t) c um
Stop wk 19
Re-start wk 26Sched wk 20
Late Finish Project
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Earned Schedule – Key Points
• ES Indicators constructed to behave in an analogousmanner to the EVM Cost Indicators, CV and CPI
• SV(t) and SPI(t)
– Not constrained by PV calculation reference
– Provide duration based measures of schedule
performance – Valid for entire project, including early and late finish
• Facilitates integrated Cost/Schedule project management
(using EVM with ES)
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Schedule Prediction
• Can the project be completed as planned? – TSPI = Plan Remaining / Time Remaining
= (PD – ES) / (PD – AT)where PD is the planned duration (time at BAC)
(PD – ES) = PDWRPDWR = Planned Duration for Work Remaining
• …completed as estimated? – TSPI = (PD – ES) / (ED – AT)
where ED = Estimated Duration
Not Achievable 1.10 Achievable 1.00
Predicted OutcomeTSPI Value
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Schedule Forecasting
• Long time goal of EVM …Prediction of total project durationfrom present schedule status
• Independent Estimate at Completion (time)
– IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)
– IEAC(t) = AT + (PD – ES) / PF(t)where PF(t) is the Performance Factor (time)
– Analogous to IEAC used to predict final cost
• Independent Estimated Completion Date (IECD)
– IECD = Start Date + IEAC(t)
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Earned Schedule Terminology
at Completion (time)
Independent Estimate
Performance Index
To Complete Schedule
Schedule PerformanceIndex
Schedule Variance
Actual Time
Earned Schedule
IEAC(t) = AT + (PD– ES) / PF
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)IEAC(t)Predictors
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (ED – AT)
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (PD – AT)TSPI(t)
SPI(t) = ES / ATSPI(t)Indicators
SV(t) = ES - ATSV(t)
AT = number of periods executedATcum
ES = C + I number of completeperiods (C) plus an incompleteportion (I)
EScumMetrics
at Completion (time)
Independent Estimate
Performance Index
To Complete Schedule
Schedule PerformanceIndex
Schedule Variance
Actual Time
Earned Schedule
IEAC(t) = AT + (PD– ES) / PF(t)
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)IEAC(t)Predictors
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (ED – AT)
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (PD – AT)TSPI
SPI(t) = ES / ATSPI(t)Indicators
SV(t) = ES - ATSV(t)
AT = number of periods executedATcum
ES = C + I number of completeperiods (C) plus an incompleteportion (I)
EScumMetrics
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Independent Confirmation
• SPI(t) & SV(t) do portray the real schedule performance• At early & middle project stages pre-ES & ES forecasts of
project duration produce similar results
• At late project stage ES forecasts outperform all pre-ESforecasts
• The use of the SPI(t) in conjunction with the TSPI(t) hasbeen demonstrated to be useful for managing the schedule
Stephan Vandevoorde – Fabricom Airport Systems, Belgium
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Schedule Analysis with EVM?
• Most practitioners analyze schedule from the bottom upusing the network schedule, independent from EVM
….“It is the only way possible.”
– Analysis of the Schedule is overwhelming
– Critical Path is used to shorten analysis(CP is longest path of the schedule)
• Duration prediction using Earned Schedule provides amacro-method similar to the method for estimating Cost
– A significant advance in practice
• But, there’s more that ES facilitates ….
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Facilitates Drill-Down Analysis
• ES can be applied to any level of the WBS, to include taskgroupings, such as the Critical Path (CP) – Requires creating PMB for the area of interest
– EV for the area of interest is used to determine its ES
• Enables comparison of forecasts, total project (TP) to CP
– Desired result: forecasts are equal
– When TP forecast > CP forecast, CP has changed
– When CP > TP, possibility of future problems
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ES Bridges EVM to the Schedule
$$
Time
PV
BAC
PD
EV
ES AT AT
SV(t)
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How Can This Be Used?
• Tasks behind – possibility of impediments or constraints canbe identified
• Tasks ahead – a likelihood of future rework can be identified
• The identification is independent from schedule efficiency
• The identification can be automated
PMs can now have a schedule analysis toolconnected to the EVM Data!!
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Current Usage & Recognition
• EVM Instructors – Performance Management Associates, Management Technologies,
George Washington University, University of Florida …
• Boeing Dreamliner , Lockheed Martin, US StateDepartment, Secretary of the Air Force
• Several Countries - Australia, Belgium, United Kingdom,
USA ….(Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Spain, Brazil, India, …)• Applications across weapons programs, construction,
software development, …• Range of project size from very small and short to extremely
large and long duration• Inclusion of Emerging Practice Insert into PMI - EVM
Practice Standard (2004)
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Summary
• Derived from EVM data … only• Provides time-based schedule indicators
• Indicators do not fail for late finish projects
• Application is scalable up/down, just as is EVM
• Schedule prediction is better than any other EVM methodpresently used
• Application is growing in both small and large projects
• Practice recognized as “Emerging Practice”
• Facilitates bridging EVM analysis to include the Schedule
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Thank You!
Walt Lipke
Email: [email protected]
Thank You from the MetSIG…TheInformation Highway For the Metricsof the World