Heat Pump Implementation Scenarios until 2030 Key Results & Methodology
Leonardo Energy Webinar, 17 April 2014
Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser
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Key Research Question
How can heat pumps contribute to the long-term EU energy and climate targets?
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Agenda
Part I - Overview
> Objective & Key Messages
Part II - Details
> Methodology > Scenario Definitions > Results
> Individual Building Level > Scenarios
> Conclusion
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Part I
Overview
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Objective > Scope
> Study for
> Scenarios for 8 countries (AT, BE, FR, DE, IT, ES, SE, UK)
> Impact of increasing heat pump
implementations
> Scope of heating, hot water, cooling, auxiliary energy
> 3 scenarios
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Objective > Scenario Definition
> 3 scenarios > All with (very) high energy efficiency standard related to the
building shell > Differentiation of heating system mix
> Scenario “Current Policy Implementation - CPI” with moderate increasing HP share > Scenario “HP+” with high HP shares (30%4 for retrofits and 50%4 for new builds) > Scenario “HP++” with very high HP shares (50%4 for retrofits and 100%4 for new builds)
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Key Message I > GHG Emissions
Building sector target corridor*
Total CO2 emissions reduction by 46% in the “HP++” scenario
2012-2030
* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”
Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector: CO2-emissions for the focus countries
Scenarios:
Heat pumps can play an essential role in the future supply mix.
without any heat pumps
CO2-eq emissions
from heat pump
F-gas leakages:
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Key Message II > Final Energy
The overall final energy for space heating, hot water, cooling and auxiliary purposes with increasing shares of heat pumps can be reduced by 2030 (compared to 2012): > by 19% in “CPI”,
> by 25% in “HP+” and
> by 31% in “HP++”.
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Key Message III > Costs
The total annual costs (annuities from investments and energy costs) increase by 2030 related to “CPI”.
> by 0.7% in the
scenario “HP+” and
> by 2.7% in the scenario “HP++”.
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RES-shares from heat pumps by 2020 can be higher than
required by the RES-Directive
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Key Message IV > RES shares
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Part II
Details
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Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model
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Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model
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1
2
3 4
5
6
8
7
Calculation Steps BEAM² (Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser)
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Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model
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Schematic illustration of the scope for the Built-Environment-Analysis-Model BEAM² (Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser, CEN/TR 15615)
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Scenario Definition > Number of buildings in key markets
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Number of buildings
Conditioned floor area per country and building type
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Scenario Definition > Reference buildings
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Residential Non-residential
Sweden, France, ItalyGermany, Spain, Belgium, Austria, UK All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions
Single-family house (detached)
Single-family house (Row-end house)
Multi-family house Office Education Trade / retail Touristic Health
Floor area [m²] 110,7 120,0 335,0 1972,0 11725,0 620,0 1050,0 22.422,2Ambient w all [m²] 152,0 130,0 270,0 1595,6 7597,0 510,6 1351,8 5184,3
North [m²] 40,0 0,0 15,0 576,0 1846,0 155,3 161,9 1501,8East [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 234,1 1950,0 100,0 513,0 1086,7South [m²] 40,0 70,0 15,0 597,6 1847,0 155,3 164,4 1444,4West [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 187,9 1954,0 100,0 512,5 1151,4
Window s 26,6 24,4 96,1 611,0 2825,8 46,8 207,2 845,4North [m²] 5,7 0,0 6,3 207,9 721,9 0,0 0,0 186,2East [m²] 5,8 3,9 26,0 181,5 787,0 46,2 105,6 144,9South [m²] 5,3 8,6 6,3 208,2 891,9 0,0 10,0 220,7West [m²] 9,7 9,2 57,5 13,4 425,0 0,6 91,6 293,7Roof w indow East [m²] 0,0 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0Roof w indow West [m²] 0,0 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Ground plate [m²] cellar existent Cellar existent 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,1 Cellar existentCellar ceiling [m²] 99,2 85,5 no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar 3.739,1Roof [m²] 77,0 52,3 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,0 3.739,1
East [m²] 38,5 26,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0West [m²] 38,5 25,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Story height [m²] 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 3,7 4,5 4,7 2.8 / 3.5 4,3Building volume [m³] 465 (w ithout cellar) 517 (w ithout cellar) 1480,0 7473,7 53941,9 3100,0 6879,0 88.864,2Ratio m² f loor to cellar or ground 1,1 1,4 1,8 3,3 1,0 1,9 6,0
Source: Klauß, Maas (2010)
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Scenario Definition > Retrofits, new buildings and demolitions
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Renovation, new construction and demolition rates
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Scenario Definition > Shares of heat pumps
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Scenario Definition > Definition of heat pump increase rates
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Leverage factors for heat pump implementation in the “CPI” scenario
Illustration of “Implementations gained from competing technologies” in the HP+ and HP++ scenarios
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Scenario Definition > Heat pump market saturations
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Market saturation curve (S-curve)
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Scenario Definition > Heat pump implementations
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Heat pump implementations per scenario
Relation of heat pump implementations per scenario in 2020 related to 2012
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Results > SPFs and CO2-emissions for individual buildings
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SPF values for heat pumps in single-family houses per country
Austria: CO2-emissions per year for heating (floor heating system)
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Results > GHG Emissions
Building sector target corridor*
Total CO2 emissions reduction by 46% in the “HP++” scenario
2012-2030
* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”
Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector: CO2-emissions for the focus countries
Scenarios:
Heat pumps can play an essential role in the future supply mix.
without any heat pumps
CO2-eq emissions
from heat pump
F-gas leakages:
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Results > Overview
* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”
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Overview on main results per scenario
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Conclusion
High implementation of heat pumps can:
contribute significantly to the mitigation of CO2-emissions, energy savings and to an increasing share of renewable energies
be realized at moderate additional overall costs be an important puzzle piece for reaching long term
targets (by 2050) play an essential role in the future supply mix. Additional policy actions for heat pumps are required in the HP+ and HP++ scenario.
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Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser T: +49 221 270 70 157 E: [email protected]
Ecofys Germany Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany www.ecofys.com
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Thank you!