Economic Growth in
Tokugawa Japan
Michael Smitka
March 2001
Economics 297 Presentation
Mid-16th Century Han(“countries”)
Issues
• was Japan poor? -- standard of living
• was the economy static -- growth process
• institutional, other legacies
• Curiosity: merely understanding Japan (1600-1868)
Models
• economic growth :– Solow one-sector model
– Lewis-Fei-Ranis two-sector model
• Solow model is simple production function Y = f (K, L, N, tech) [“N” is
land]
– technical change is core of Solow’s work
– capital deepening is a key factor (incl human capital)
– population growth can eat up gains
Other factors besides “hard” tech
• organizational & institutional change are both underrated– “Smithian” growth through specialization and
trade– government provision of infrastructure, other
public goods– development of business networks and accepted
practices in markets
Demographics
• population growth can swamp positive
factors.
• indeed, for most of human history standards
of living changed little
• how about Japan? -- and if not, why?
Basic Historical Overview
• breakdown of old govt & continual warfare during 1500s• spread of irrigated rice varieties• diffusion of civil engineering techniques from China• 1540: arrival of Francis Xavier & diffusion of muskets • unification under Oda Nobunaga & Toyotomi Hideyoshi
– neither was able to set up a system that outlived them
• enduring unification under Tokugawa Ieyasu (1600)• Tokugawa “bakufu” officially founded in 1603
– Ieyasu named “shogun”
Unification = ?
• multiple “kuni” (country?!) – each headed by a semi-autonomous
“daimyo” (lord)
– variations in laws, economic structure
• roughly 250 political-economic units remained
Politics and the economy
• how maintain the peace?– impoverish your rivals
– keep hostages
• alternate attendance system– every-other year in Edo (modern Tokyo)
– families (heirs) must stay there
– mandated high expense levels
• by 1700 Edo had a population of over 1 million
Growth stimulus?
• Tokugawa control system had:
– implications for macroeconomic resource
flows in a two-sector context
– implications for commercialization and
monetization of the economy
• Lewis two-sector model: forced flows?
Government role
• the Edo “bakufu” fostered navigation– port and lighthouse development
– maps etc. all by around 1720
• formal financial markets promoted– rice futures market in Osaka by 1720
– transferring money in place of in-kind taxes
– insurance markets (esp. casualty)
– local (rural) finance by 1800s
Market-oriented economy
• especially intense development in several regions– cash-crop farms around Osaka (hence farmers bought
food....)
– large urban consumer market
• commercial elite for whom political advancement was foreclosed (cf. English Dissenters)
• education spread.– ukiyoe were for mass-market (wedding presents…)
– lots of agricultural handbooks - 200+ titles in print
Specialization by the “kuni”(export products)
• Silk, cotton, salt, lumber, paper, fish
• Some regions largely industrial
• Seasonal “proto-industry” often
accompanied by regional migration
• Both men & women active in wage labor
outside the home
Technical Change
• hard to measure industrial level but– very rapid ability to reproduce industrial revolution
technology
– clear shifts in agriculture
• diminishing returns?– demographic evidence mixed for whole country
– but not true (??) for “advanced” regions
Standard of Living
• transformation of consumption– various rough fibers replaced by cotton; silk worn by more than
just elite
– new (and better foods). peppers, sweet potatoes / taro, corn, etc.
– new and better housing: tatami mats off the ground
– vast increases in protein-laden soybean-related consumption (miso, soy sauce)
• Education– Literate society, perhaps more so than England!
– Vast outpouring of books, circulated through lending libraries
– Even nascent “western” studies, esp. in 1800s
Shipping Routes after 1720
Area of Indica
(short-grain)
Rice Cultivation
–early 1700s
–darker hatching indicates greater
cultivation of indica rice
–
Kawaguchi Ironware
Zaguri (silk weaving
machine)
Loom (karabikibata)c. 1770
SpinningSilk
Whale Processing
Factory
Population Growth Rates
Region 1798 1804 1828 1834 1846 ‘98-’46Kinki 93.5 93.5 0.0%Tokai 100.1 106.6 6.5%Kanto 85 86.6 1.9%Tohoku 86 88.7 3.1%Tozan 106.1 1798 110.1 3.8%Hokuriku 105.3 -1834 117.6 11.7%San'in 118.8 120 129.9 132.7 11.7% 124.8 4.0%San'yo 106.8 109.9 119.8 121.8 14.0% 120.2 9.4%Shikoku 111.7 114.9 123.8 126.1 12.9% 126.8 10.4%Kyushu 105.3 107.3 111.3 112.2 6.6% 113.8 6.1%
1721 = 100Kinki, Tokai, Kanto, Tohoku, Tozan all fell. 48 yearsHokuriku slow growth selected regions, old data
Agriculture Outgrows Population
50.00
46.00
42.00
38.00
34.00
30.00
26.00
22.00
18.00
14.00
10.001600 1650 1700 1720 1730 1750 1800 1850 1872
Tokugawa Population & Agriculture
Population (millions) Arable Land (100,000 í¨) Agricultural Output
Tokugawa Population & Agriculture
Area Yield YieldPop Arable Farm per per per
Year (mil) Land Output Pop Pop Area1600 12.0 20.7 19.7 17.25 1.64 0.0951650 17.2 23.5 23.1 13.66 1.34 0.0981700 27.7 28.4 30.6 10.25 1.10 0.1081720 31.3 29.3 32.0 9.36 1.02 0.1091730 32.1 29.7 32.7 9.25 1.02 0.1101750 31.1 29.9 34.1 9.61 1.10 0.1141800 30.7 30.3 37.7 9.87 1.23 0.1241850 32.3 31.7 41.2 9.81 1.28 0.1301872 33.1 32.3 46.8 9.76 1.41 0.145
Specialization in AgricultureCotton Production
Koga county, Harima han near modern Kobe
IrrigatedYear fields Dryland Reclaimed Total1801 0.4% 13.7% 28.5% 8.2%1807 0.6 15.1 25.2 8.21813 3.0 41.5 36.9 17.31822 4.3 38.6 36.8 17.41832 0.5 34.5 34.8 13.41842 2.2 38.6 36.9 16.21847 1.5 35.2 35.2 14.5
Note: I find it surprising that any irrigated fields were used for cotton instead of rice!In the 1880s imports led to a sharp drop in domestic output, and production ceased by 1900.
Shifts in Family Structure
Average for Selected villages Suwa Region, modern Nagano Prefecture
Avg. Household Size Avg Couples per HouseholdYear Nishiko Yamaura Nishiko Yamaura
1671-1700 7.87 8.55 1.97 1.831701-1750 6.14 9.93 1.41 2.341751-1800 4.66 6.94 1.32 2.051801-1850 4.22 4.73 1.25 1.371851-1870 4.31 4.48 1.20 1.30
Osaka as an Entrepot (1714)Principal non-Rice Imports / Exports
Imports ExportsMarine products 20.2% Oil & beeswax 36.4%Agricultural items 19.5 Clothing & textiles 25.2Clothing & textiles 15.4 Misc tools 7.5Oilseed 12.9 Misc exports 7.3Mining products 7.5 Processed food 6.1Fertilizer 6.4 Accessories & decorations5.8Wood products 5.9 Lacquerware & pottery 4.6Misc Imports 4.1 Seedcake (fertilizer) 3.4Tea & tobacco 2.8 Furniture 0.5Tatami 2.0 Weapons 0.5Kyoto crafts 0.9 Arts & crafts 0.4%Total (Ag value) 286,561 kan Total 95,800 kan
Extent of Cotton CultivationJapan remained able to shift land out of food crops
Growth of a National MarketRice Price Movements Converged in the 17th Century
Structure of National Output
– 1874 –
• shortly after “opening” to
the West
• before significant
structural change from
– new technologies
– convergence of domestic &
international prices