“Economic Growth, Poverty, Populism, and Democracy”
“Can The Poor Afford Democracy? : A Presidential Perspective.”(Final Lecture)
STUDY/BOOK PROJECT
Alejandro Toledo Ph.D.President of Peru, 2001-2006President, Global Center for Development and Democracy (GCDD)Payne Distinguished Visiting Lecturer (CDDRL) Freeman Spogli Institute forInternational Studies, Stanford UniversityDistinguished Fellow, Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences(CASBS), Stanford University
The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies / CDDRL Stanford University
Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecture Series2008
Election Day
Elected Presidents
Political Democracy
With power in their hands.
APEC Chile 2004
South American Interoceanic Highway
Export Agro Industry
Economic Growth
Faces Of Poverty
Early Malnutrition
Lack Of Drinkable Water
Child Labor
Social Unrest: Counterproductive For Growth
Authoritarian Populism
DemocraticGovernability
Economic Growth
DemocraticInstitutions
Poverty and ExclusionReduction
Poverty and Democracy
1. We cannot redistribute poverty: The final objective is not that everyone is equally poor.2. Economic growth is an indispensable (but insufficient) component for any poverty and
exclusion reduction strategy.3. Economic, social, political and legal stability are indispensable to attract national and
foreign capital investment.4. Within a market economy, there is a need for deliberate social policies and specific
projects targeted to the extremely poor.5. There is a high need for accountability on the part of governments at different levels.
Premises:
The conventional wisdom among most development economists and policy makers is that economic growth and increases in income levels are the key, and at times the only crucial, components for any poverty reduction strategy. The literature on this is abundant in Latin America as well as in USA, And Europe.
Less examined is the reverse proposition: That high levels of poverty and social exclusion may in fact constitute real impediments to achieve the needed social, economic, political, and legal stability for sustained economic growth and democratic governability in the region. This development process perspective recognizes the existence of “vicious circles” in which low economic growth accentuates poverty and high poverty, in turn, results in a low economic growth and fragile governability.
This study/book seeks to examine the ways and means to convert this “vicious circle” into “virtuous circle” in which poverty, exclusion/inequality reduction, and sustained economic growth could support each other and strengthen democracy, thus preventing the surge of irresponsible populism and destabilizing forces which undermine sustainable development.
Conceptual FrameworkConventional Wisdom
Economic GrowthPoverty & Inequality Reduction
Income Levels
Other Manifestations of Poverty
• Unemployment
• Infant Mortality
• Malnutrition
• Lack of access to quality health and education
• Vulnerability to economic crisis
• Ethnic social exclusion
Indigenous People: NewChallenges for the 21st Century
Democracies
1. Increase in access to quality health and education2. Assure effective social inclusion (particularly the indigenous population)3. Indigenous people of Latin America emerge with old inequalities diverse realities and new obligations for 21st century democracies.4. Regions impatient with the democracy5. High inequalities 6. Lack of availability of jobs,7. Rural, urban contrasts.8. Inclusion with mutual respect for cultural diversities.
From the Analysis and the Lectures
To the
Actions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Total Population By
Gender
Population By Age & Gender
Population By Urban & Rural
Areas By Gender
Childbirth Survival Rate
Global Rate Of Fecundity
Gross Birthrate
Gross Mortality Rate
Social Indicators [Demographics]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
Social Agenda for Democracy in Lat. America
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Literacy Rate Age 15+ By
Gender
School Registration
Rate By Gender
Average Student/Teach
er Ratio
Public Expenditure In
Education
% Of Students Starting 1st
Grade & Finishing 5th
School Assistance In Urban Areas
Per Capita Per Income
Social Indicators [Education]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Mortality Rate Children Under 5 (UNICEF)
Child Mortality Rate
Maternal Mortality Rate
Underweight Rates Children Under 5 By
Gender
% Children Measles Vaccination (UNICEF-
OMS)
Childbirths Employing Specialized Sanitary
Personnel
HIV Prevalence For Mothers Age 15-24
Contraceptive Use By Married Women 15-49
Malaria Mortality Rate
Tuberculosis Mortality Rate
Inhabitants Per Doctor
Hospital Beds Per Inhabitants
Social Indicators [Health]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Occupied Housing According To Type Of
Possession By Urban & Rural Areas
Homes With Basic Services By Urban &
Rural Areas
Population With Sustainable Access To
Drinking Water Resources By Urban &
Rural Areas
Population With Access To Proper Drainage
Service By Urban Rural Areas
Social Indicators [Housing]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Rate Of Urban Unemployment (CEPAL)
Rate Of Youth Unemployment
Economically Active Population (EAP) By
Gender (CELADE-ILO)
EAP Growth Rate By Economic Activity
Sectors By Gender
Social Indicators [Employment]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Real Average Salaries
Wage-Earners Salaries As GDP
Real Minimum Wage
Monthly Nominal Minimum Wage In
National Currency To Current Prices
Social Indicators [Salaries]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Poverty & Indigency Coefficient Gap (CEPAL)
Coefficient Of Poverty Gap (WB)
Income Distribution By Quintiles By Geographic
Area (CEPAL)
Population In Poverty & Ingency Conditions By
Geographic Area
Population Living Under 1 Dollar and Under 2
Dollars Per Day (WB)
GINI Concentration Rate (CEPAL)
% Of Population Below Minimum Nutrition (FAO)
Daily Kilocalorie Consumption By Person
Social Indicators [Poverty/Income Distribution]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
GDP Per Inhabitant To Market Constant Prices
Of Market, Annual Variation Rates
CPI-Consumer Price Index
Social Public Expenditure Per Inhabitant
Social Public Expenditure As % Total Public
Expenditure
Social Indicators [Economy]
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Internet Users
Personal Computers In Use
Social Indicators [Technology]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 … 2026 2027 2028
Population Growth Rate
GNI Per Capita
Adult Literacy
Life Expectancy At Birth
Child Mortality Rate
Fertility Rate
Adult HIV Prevlaence
Social Indicators [Health/Nutrition/Population]
Sources: World Bank, UN, IDB, Academic Institutions