Section 3:Vulnerability MethodsEGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental ChangeGina Ziervogel ([email protected]) December 2011
This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
Vulnerability is…
An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations.
(Bohle et al. 1994)
How do we assess vulnerability?
How do we develop a consensual definition vulnerability?
How do we measure vulnerability?
Choosing appropriate VA methods
The context should drive the choice of methodology and methods
▪ decision goals, analytical teams, priority vulnerabilities
User orientation ▪ An array of methods is essential: the most
useful tools are those that fit the decision framework of the end-users
Scale of analysis important in selection of methods
▪ e.g. appropriate indicators, availability of data
Questions on scope Possible answers
Who is the vulnerability assessment for? Local stakeholders
Other researchers
Regional authorities
National authorities
What is the time frame for the issues to be addressed?
Current issue, decision scheduled
Current planning horizon, 5-15 years
Long-term future, 30-100 years
What is the policy result? Operational guidelines
Project design
Strategic plans
Awareness
Scoping of assessment
Scoping of assessment
Initial Vulnerability Assessment questions
What hazards and stresses are systems exposed to? e.g., economic risks (income loss, debt),
natural hazards Who/ what are the exposure units?
e.g., social groups, ecosystems, regions Where are the vulnerable located? When are people/systems vulnerable? What are the specific reasons for their
vulnerability? e.g., dependence on particular resources,
reliance on certain subsidies, social marginalisation
Initial Vulnerability Assessment questions
• How resilient are the exposure units to current stresses? – institutional capacity, absorption capacity of
ecosystems, diversity of income sources• What would be the consequences of exposure to
stresses?– loss of assets, loss of livelihood, unemployment, loss of
life?• What has been the impact of historical episodes or
comparable events?• What indicators capture current and future vulnerability
under the proposed scenarios? • What potential responses can be pursued to reduce
vulnerability? – operational, strategic, policy/regulatory– scale
Synthesize existing data
Impact assessments Strategic environmental assessments
Livelihoods based analysis Consultations
From Expert judgement, Focus groups & Stakeholder consultation
Past trends and future scenarios work Scenario analysis
Evaluation of existing development frameworks
Establish new data needed
Tools in a VA Toolkit
Agent-based simulation modeling
Bayesian analysis Brainstorming Checklists/multiple
attributes Cognitive Mapping Cost-effectiveness/
Cost-benefit/Expected Value
Cost Impact Analysis Decision conferencing Decision/probability
trees Delphi technique Environmental
assessment/ Strategic Environmental Assessment
Expert judgment
Focus groups Indicators/mapping Influence
diagrams/mapping tools
Multi-criterion analysis Ranking/dominance
analysis/pairwise comparisons
Risk analysis Role-play Scenario analysis Stakeholder
consultation Stakeholder thematic
networks Vulnerability Profiles Wealth ranking
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Steps in VA Assessment
1. Scope assessment2. Decide on initial VA questions3. Establish existing data4. Choose appropriate tools to obtain
necessary data
Buzz group: What is the aim of scoping the
assessment?
Tools in a VA Toolkit
Agent-based simulation modeling
Bayesian analysis Brainstorming Checklists/multiple
attributes Cognitive Mapping Cost-effectiveness/
Cost-benefit/Expected Value
Cost Impact Analysis Decision conferencing Decision/probability
trees Delphi technique Environmental
assessment/ Strategic Environmental Assessment
Expert judgment
Focus groups Indicators/mapping Influence
diagrams/mapping tools
Multi-criterion analysis Ranking/dominance
analysis/pairwise comparisons
Risk analysis Role-play Scenario analysis Stakeholder
consultation Stakeholder thematic
networks Vulnerability Profiles Wealth ranking
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Vulnerability assessment techniques
Livelihood vulnerability Qualitative methods Quantitative methods
Indicators and mappingAgent-based modellingScenarios
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Vulnerability of livelihoods What is a livelihood?
Set of activities Assets Access
Improve or continue existence
Vulnerability of livelihoods
Assets Human Social Financial Physical Natural
Improve or continue existence
Evaluating sustainable livelihoods
Sustainable Livelihoods: The capability of people to make a living and improve their quality of life without jeopardizing the livelihood options of others.
Sustainability implies: Ability to cope with and recover from stresses
and shocks Economic effectiveness and social equity Ecological integrity Resilience to shocks
(Rennie and Singh, 1996)
Benefits of livelihoods approach to VA
An analysis of livelihoods helps VA users to: Identify the most vulnerable groups and
individuals at a community or regional scale Emphasize the links between policy decisions and
household level activities Focus not just on incomes, but also relations,
institutions, access and control of resources Identify the sensitivity of different livelihoods to
stresses, and assess their vulnerabilities and strengths
Captures lessons on how to build community resilience
Assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods
Qualitative Participatory Semi-structured Interviews
Quantitative Surveys Indicators Mapping
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Qualitative methods Participatory approaches
Village mapping Seasonal calendars Matrices Pair-wise ranking Venn diagrams Time line Wealth ranking
Semi-structured questions Focus groups Role-play methods Oral histories
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Climatic calendars2003 2004
J an Feb Maart April Mei J unie J ulie Aug Sept Okt Nov Des J an Feb Maart April Mei J unie
Wat onthou Warm en Geen Ryp en Ryp en Droog Koel weer Droog Plant tee Geen Koud en Droog en Warm en Warm en Warm en Droog en Lekker reen Mot dou opvolg reenjy oor droog Reen Winderig Droog Baie Ryp en Na Goue Reen Ryp winderig droog droog droog Ooste Donderweer Bietjie opvolgverskillende Donderweer Geen reen koud Reen winde Reen reen aspekte van Reen Vir maand Goeie reen valdie weer?
Watter impakte Water het Miggies in Het baie Water het As reen val Skade by Het geen Het baie Geen reen Feb te Pad onbe- reen dit nie kan begin saaihet die weer Probleme Die tee. peste Begin bykom Help dit vir Lammer oeste Sukses behaal Winde Geen oes Kort aan gaanbaar mei nie het onsgehad? Gegee Inkomste swak Veld het goed Die plae Geen melk (sp?) Met tee aan gehad Tee saad Veld het geen werk nie(B.V. Boerdery, Deur geen by gekom ooie Planting reen goed by Veld verbeterinkomstes, Werk (sp?) werk kan nie plant nie Dit goen (sp?) gekom steedswater, geleenthede Kan begin Saai Is daar werk werk-geleenthede, Is swak vee, plae, parasiete)
Hoe het julle water aangery na steeds water laat tee twee bemark tee gedurende melk vir lammers gee lammers plant tee goud (sp?) soek werks Droogte Kry nog droogte droogte droogte droogte Soek werkaangepas met kampe en eie aangery dae lpv(sp?) later gewag en gekoop melk geleen (sp?) geleenthede hulp droogte hulp hulp hulp hulphierdie weer gedrink een dae le gebid (sp?) hulptoestande?
Wat wou julle Wou vroeg tee wou tee maak meer tee maak wou nuwe wou ploeg wou tee plant wou tee plant wou meer tee wou lande wou graag wou graag wou graag wou tee wou graag wou erasie (sp?) wou paaie grondgraag gedoen het, maakkon nie a.s.g. lande voor- plant skoffer (sp?) teesaad lammers oes en maak eie teen bekamp herstel voorbereiwat julle kon nie? water te kort berei optel bemark werk skep baan (sp?) (skraap)
voltooi
Hoekom nie? water te kort water te kort water te kort droogte geen reen geen reen droogte nie goeie te kort aan daar was nie nie bemark- nie oes a.g.v. kon nie a.g.v. tekort aan tekort aan het nie kontantopvolg reen kontant a.g.v droogte baar droogte droogte kapitaal kapitaal implemente vloei (sp?)
vloei (sp?) (zone) sp?
(Archer et al, 2008)
Climatic calendars
(Archer et al, 2008)
Cognitive mapping
A cognitive model that captures diverse nature of the problem
Useful tool when: different stakeholders have different
perceptions of the problem the options for addressing a problem are
unclear
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Cognitive mapping process
1) State the problem 2) Brainstorm assumptions and solutions3) Group emerging concepts 4) Re-illustrate the concepts so they form a
conceptual model5) Go back to participants 6) Formal cognitive model
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Multiple, inter-related and indirect impacts…
By Emma Archer
Role play
To creatively remove people from their usual roles and assumptions by involving them as a group in analytic thinking and assessment
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Role play process
Open-ended story/ written case description
Describe the setting for the action Participants asked to act out potential
scenarios Record
Tape/video Participant feedback Observer descriptions/notes
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Role-play in Lesotho
By Gina Ziervogel
By Gina Ziervogel
(Ziervogel, 2004)
Lessons learnt
Role-play enabled the question to be ‘experienced’
Lessons for seasonal forecast dissemination Prefer receiving information from person Above-normal forecast helpful Resources not necessary to respond
(Ziervogel, 2004)
Oral histories
Qualitative narratives of individuals’ histories and strategies
Focus: Individual perception Past stress and response Used to suggest indicators
Method Can use semi-structured interview or
participatory methods to inform Multi-stakeholder view of past
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Oral history example: Rangeland quality over time
General questions about perception of past rangeland quality
Use timeline Line with 4 ticks Anchoring events Add: Stones represent best and worst harvest
1980 201020001990
Great-grandmother died
Mozambique floods
Validation of agent-based model output
AGENT BASED MODEL OUTPUT*** TICK 189 ***person-2 (female) DIED AT AGE
62 OF AIDSwas head of household-1person-2 had 10 friends; person-2 had 29 relatives in 5
households (including own)person-7 (male, 36) becomes new
head of household-1burialSociety-0 pays out 360.0
Rand to household-1 for the death of its member person-2
Scenario presented for feedback at village workshop:Hilda dies of AIDS (62, HH head)Funeral cost (R4000); Burial society (R360); Honest becomes
HHH (36)
By Gina Ziervogel
Women’s responseto scenario (Funeral cost, R4000; Burial society,R360; Honest becomes HHH, 36)
By Gina Ziervogel
Men’s response to scenario (Funeral cost, R4000; Burial society,R360; Honest becomes HHH, 36)
By Gina Ziervogel
By Gina Ziervogel
Wealth ranking
Stratifications of groups within a community as understood by community members
Categories▪ Money, availability/access to resources,
health, labour▪ Poor, average, better-off ▪ Represented by colours, symbols,
numbers
Wealth ranking process
Establish categoriesCommunity members place
themselves/ key members place households
Consultation possible
Livelihood approaches: quantitative
IndicatorsQuantitative evaluation of livelihood assets
IndicesBy Gina Ziervogel
Q1 Q2 Q5 Q3 Q7 Q8
Age Gender Relationship to household head household size tot.No. of fam fed in household for the ave. month.
no. of months that the household feeds itself from farming.
27M HH 3 3 4
47F wife 7 7 3
63M HH 11 10 6
51F wife 8 7 3
61M HH 10 9 5
76F HH 2 1 3
44M HH 8 7 2
62F wife 6 6 4
73M HH 8 3 3
51F wife 8 6 3
40F HH 3 2 5
49F wife 2 2 3
65M HH 7 6 3
54F wife 8 4 4
30F wife 8 4 5
Role-play example
3 class volunteers (actors) 1 student ‘in distress’ with injured hand 1 friend 1 emergency personnel
Scene 1: Student is panicky about accident, goes to friend for help, who tries to call for help
Scene 2: Student injures hand and is calm about it..
Livelihood indicator approach
Checklist
How likely are the following sources of fire to cause accidents
Example from Class practical 2009
Indicators and mapping
Vulnerability Metrics
Metrics “A system or standard of measurement;
a criterion or set of criteria stated in quantifiable terms” (Oxford English Dictionary)
Metrics important when questioning future states Education; health Identify thresholds Doesn’t capture cause
Indicator: single measure of a characteristic
Index: composite measure of several indicators or indices.
Purpose Capture spatial variation in vulnerability Used for guiding decision-making prioritising intervention
Indicators and mapping
(Miller et al. 2005)
Limitations
Caution complex nature of vulnerability difficulty in capturing diversity and sensitivity
Reflect explicit conceptual framework of vulnerability Can’t compare indicators that assess different
temporal and spatial scales Units of measurement are often inconsistent
(Miller et al. 2005)
Indicator methodology
First identify appropriate indicators in regards to the conceptual framework
Indicators are then transformed into standard scores for mapping• Can use aggregate measures (e.g., food
security index might use crop yield, income, and nutrition measures)
• Explore indicator database structureWhat is the range of values? Are there critical thresholds for vulnerability? Are indicators correlated with each other?
(Miller et al. 2005)
Example: Households and drought in the Sahel: Vulnerability and effective adaptation measures
Who are the most vulnerable groups and what shapes their vulnerability in the face of climate variability and change?
What shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups to rebound from drought hazards?
How does institutional capacity influence the capacity of the affected individuals and households to cope with/adapt to droughts and reduce vulnerability?
Will adaptive capacities change in the future? If so, how? (http://www.aiaccproject.org/)
Rapid Rural Assessment to: Identify major livelihood systems Identify vulnerability indicators, Assign weights to indicators.
Methods Preliminary Survey Focus Group Discussion
Project in Nigeria and Mali: Research Design
(http://www.aiaccproject.org/)
Table: Indices and Weights for Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment in Northern Nigeria (http://www.aiaccproject.org/)
Index Value Measured/Calculated as Range Average
1 Acreage under cultivation 1 Hectares/consumer units 0.1 -2.8 0.6
2 Dependency ratio 1 Labour units/consumer units (inverted) 0.3 – 0.8 0.5
3 Livestock ownership 1 Tropical Livestock Units/consumer units 0.0 – 8.2 3.7
4 Gender of Household Head
1 Value given to sex of household head 1.0 – 2.0 1.8
5 Livelihood diversification 1 Weighted number of non-agricultural income generating activities/consumer units
0.0 - 2.4 0.7
6 Annual cash income 1 In 1000 Naira/consumer units 2.5 – 9.7 4.2
7 Drought Preparedness 1 Value given to use of drought resistant crops and livestock and receives drought related information and advise
0.0 – 2.0 1.1
8 Educational background of the household head
0.5 Value given to highest school level attained by the head of the household
0.0 -4.0 1.8
9 Land tenure situation 0.5 Value given to land tenure situation 1.0 – 3.0 2.5
10 Type of house 0.5 Value given to type of house lived in 1.0 -3.0 1.80
11 Self-sufficiency in food production
0.5 Number of years surplus foodstuffs were sold minus number of years foodstuffs were bought in the past 10 years
0.0 -20.0 11.2
12 Family and Social Networks
0.5 Value given to strength of family and social networks.
1.0 – 4.0 2.25
13 Quality of household 0.5 Number of able persons/ number of disabled and or sick persons in the household (inverted)
1.5 – 12.0 7.6
Overall Vulnerability 10 Sum of (index scores * index value) 235.1 to 833.9 472.1
Mapping
Indicators Participatory mapping
Risk of flood and acute drought
Risk of flood and drought
Risk of flood
Risk of acute drought
Risk of drought
LEGEND
Infrastructure, Population and Poor People at Risk by Municipios
Top 1010 -2525 -
60 60 -
291
T.E. Downing
http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/
(HDI website 2009)
HDI ClassMissing (10)Low (45)Medium (22)High (100)
Human Development Index
Global desertification
http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html
Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
Global index of ‘progress towards environmental sustainability’
142 countries Twenty ‘core’ indicators
5 categories: environmental systems, environmental stresses, human vulnerability to environmental risks, a society's institutional capacity to respond to environmental threats, and a nation's stewardship of the shared resources of the global common
core indicators composed of multiple indicators, based on the best available quantitative data. (http://www.ciesin.org/indicators/ESI/)
http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/wdc/downloads/maps/sustainability/Environmental_Sustainability_Index/2005_ESI_Scores_by_Country.jpg
The EPI focuses on two overarching environmental objectives: reducing environmental stresses to
human health; promoting ecosystem vitality and sound
natural resource management.
Objectives gauged using 25 performance indicators tracked in six well-established policy categories, which are then combined to create a final score.
(http://epi.yale.edu)
(http://epi.yale.edu)
(http://epi.yale.edu)
Hotspot analysis
• ‘Hotspot’ analysis is an example of integrated VA
– three key areas of information: – environmental stresses; – vulnerability of people & ecosystems to
stresses; – and impacts on ecosystem services
– “Hotspot” is a geographically delineated area where there is a convergence of threats, vulnerability and impacts
(Mathur, 2005)
(www.biodiversityhotspots.org)
Hotspot history
Biodiversity hotspots Norman Myers pioneered in late 80s Must meet two strict criteria:
contain at least 1,500 species of vascular plants (> 0.5 percent of the world’s total) as endemics,
and it has to have lost at least 70 percent of its original habitat.
(Myers et al, 2000)
(www.biodiversityhotspots.org)
Cape Floristic KingdomHotspot Original Extent:
78.555 km2Hotspot Vegetation Remaining:
15.711 km2
Evergreen fire-dependent shrublands characterize the landscape of the Cape Floristic Region, one of the world's five Mediterranean hotspots. Home to the greatest non-tropical concentration of higher plant species in the world, the region is the only hotspot that encompasses an entire floral kingdom, and holds five of South Africa’s 12 endemic plant families and 160 endemic genera. The geometric tortoise, the Cape sugar-bird, and a number of antelope species are characteristic of the Cape Floristic hotspot.
(www.biodiversityhotspots.org)
Succulent KarooHotspot Original Extent: 102,691km2Hotspot Vegetation Remaining: 29,780km2
Integrated VA of areas at risk from key infrastructure developments
• Phase 1 developed as part of the SEI Strategic Environmental Framework for the Greater Mekong Sub-region:
– integrates analytical, participatory, and policy-oriented processes
– combines multiple indicators of poverty and environmental stress
– developed a GIS-P application to integrate expert knowledge to identify ‘hotspots’
Mekong ‘Hotspots’
(Mathur, 2005)
Phase 2 produced:• tools for integration of expert
knowledge• participatory risk assessment
processes• illustrations of development
choices, challenges, and potential impacts
• develop an early warning monitoring and management system
Mekong ‘Hotspots’*
* Based on study undertaken by Mathur, 2005
Mapping profiles of vulnerability
Different livelihood groups are subject to different stresses
Need to understand what they stresses and impacts are in order to target development
Unemployment
GDPpc
Maize Consumption
Maize Production
HIV
Infant Mortality
Roads
Health FacilitiesVillage A
Village B
Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1HH Size
Male laborers
Total Income
Total Expenditure
Crops sales price in bad year
Food Aid
Grazing land
Crop land
Mid Altitude
Road Access
Livestock holdings
Types of dairy
Low income crop (V High)
Middle income crop (High)
Crop/dairy (Mod)
Isolated, middle income crop (Mod)
High income dairy (Mod)
Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia
Multi-agent approach
• Represent actors as software agents• Multi-level vulnerability• Emergence from interactions
Agent-based modelling
Agent: self-contained programme that can
control its own actions, based on it perceptions of its operating environment
ABM enables construction of models using a bottom-up approach new forms of vulnerability evolve as a
result of the local micro-level interactions between agents
Enables evaluation of response to multiple stressors
Example: small-holder farmers in a communal garden in Mangondi village, Limpopo Province
ABM of farmers’ use of seasonal forecasts Assessed under different conditions for different types of agents
Based on empirical fieldwork
Enables experimentation Variations in type of information Explore which strategies reduce vulnerability
(Bharwani et al, 2005)
(Bharwani et al, 2005)
(Bharwani et al, 2005)
Municipal validation process
In/Out migrationHousehold income
Food securityEducation
HH income Current situationWithout new miningWith new miningPoorR1,000R2,000R3,000professionalR10,000R10,000R15,000RichR20,000 - 45,000R20,000 - 45,000R50,000 – R80,000
HH monthly income
Current situation
Without new mining (+ 20 yrs)
With new mining (+ 20 yrs)
Poor R1,000 R2,000 R3,000
Professional R10,000 R10,000 R15,000
Rich R20,000 - 45,000
R20,000 - 45,000
R50,000 - 80,000
Scenarios
Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ8leCy7Qvc Resilience: How is scenario planning useful?Garry Peterson
Why scenarios? The profit Jeremiah
His prophecies of extreme warning went largely unheeded by the people of Israel
Utopia Visualisation of desirable
futures
http://www.flickr.com/photos/aeon/2776979282/
The role of scenarios
The limits of prediction Complex socio-environmental processes Surprise and the kinks of history
The nature of scenarios Vision of a future time
Sufficiently beyond the present to not be inherently predictable
Internally consistent Plausible relationships between elements, multiple
attributes Semi-quantitative
Associated with indicators or supported by formal models
Policy-relevant not policy-prescriptive
Definition
Scenarios are plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.327.aspx.pdf )
Scenario methodologies
Visions and back-castingModel simulation and probabilityWorst caseStakeholder-led/interactiveRole playing, gaming
Scenario examples
Venetian visions (Ulysses)Climate change
IPCC Long term mitigation scenarios
(DEAT)South African food security
scenarios
SCENARIOS FOR VENICE, 2050
CURRENT DRIVING FORCES VISIONS
Scenarios Narratives
DEMOGRAPHIC
ECONOMIC
TRANSPORTATION
CULTURAL
IDENTIFICATIONBREAKING POINTS
GOVERNANCE
(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)
VISIONS OF VENICE, 2050
Marco Polo tells Kublai Kan…
Tonight I’ll tell you about 4 cities
(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)
Visions of Venice 2050
Living conditions have deteriorated…Air and water pollution significantly affect human and ecosystem health Traditional activities close down Building Decay
A ‘new Venice’ in the mainland is created to preserve the cultural heritage
Tourism has trickled to a small fraction
Emigration increases
Gotham City(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)
Visions of Venice 2050
Venezia Inc.
Venice became a cultural park and a museum city: one of the 4 most important tourist destinations of the world
Floods and high tides become tourist attractions
Venice is a stage where the whole population acts in a gigantic performance
Corporations dominate economy and city life
Carnival takes place 4 times a year
(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)
Visions for Venice
Desired future state Evaluating goals Assumptions
Current path Interventions needed to reach desired
future
(Funtowicz and Pereira, 1999)
Climate change scenarios
Based on: Socio-economic scenarios of the
future Greenhouse gas emissions
▪ atmospheric concentrations Global climate models
IPCC: Global mean surface temperature
A2 – local economic growth, high pop growth, low technological change
A1B – High economic growth, low pop growth, efficient technology
B1 – Sustainable development, low pop growth, high economic growth(http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3.html, IPCC)
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
(http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html, IPCC)
Scenarios enable exploration of future climate impacts
There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extremes and of ice.
Long term mitigation scenarios (LTMS)
Growth without constraint
Required by Science
Current emissions quadruple by 2050 (from 440Mt – 1600/year)
Current emissions reduced by 30 – 40% by 2050
Fuel consumption grows 5 fold Joint international efforts to reduce emissions
Energy production remains mainly coal with more nuclear
New technologies taken up in SA at earlier and larger scale (including hydrogen-based transport and increased awareness of use)
(http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2008/LTMS/LTMS.html DEAT, 2007)
(http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2008/LTMS/LTMS.html DEAT, 2007)
94
Key steps by Strategic Option
Start Now Scale UpUse the Market
Reach for the Goal
- New technology
- Identify resources
- People-oriented measures
- Transition to low carbon economy
0
150
300
-R 34
Industrial efficiency
0
150
300
-R 1,131
Passenger modal shift
0
150
300
R 52
Renewables
0
150
300
R 18
Nuclear
0
150
300
-R 269
Improved vehicle efficiency
0
150
300
-R 34
Industrial efficiency
0
150
300
R 20
Nuclear, extended
Renewables, extended
0
150
300
R 92
0
150
300
R 54
Synfuels CCS 23 Mt
0
150
300
R 607
Electric vehicles in GWC grid
0
150
300
450
600
R 42
Escalating CO2 tax
0
150
300
R 125
Subsidy for renewables
0
150
300
R 697
Biofuel subsidy
0
150
300
-R 208
SWH subsidy
(http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2008/LTMS/LTMS.html DEAT, 2007)
ACHIEVING FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: Characteristics, Stressors & Recommendations to 2019
A. Misselhorn, S. Drimie, C. Schwabe
M. O’Donovan, M. Faber, S.Hendriks, J. Kirsten, P. Kuzwayo,
P. Laubscher, S. Lemke, E. Maunder, R. Swart, R. Verduijn,
C. Walsch, A. Whiteford, G. Ziervogel
Food Availability, Access, Stability, Utilization
> 40% of people in South Africa are food insecure
50% of people are poor
Affordability of food main problem in SA – food
prices
Chronic malnutrition – nearly 20% of children 1-
3yrs
HIV/AIDS - nearly 19% of population
The ‘face’ of food insecurity
(Misselhorn et al, 2006)
Economic growth
Social Security: high dependence on social transfers
Infrastructure and serviceso Critical for economic growth and to improve
livelihood capabilities
Factors promoting food security
(Misselhorn et al, 2006)
Extreme inequality and poverty persist: unequal food access
Poor human capital significant feature of food insecurity (HIV)
Major food security stressors
(Misselhorn et al, 2006)
POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES
Increases livelihood options Buffer against absolute
poverty or hunger for poor Supplements incomes Dietary diversity options
MULTIPLE CONSTRAINT
HIV/AIDS Human capacity Credit access Land access Access to agricultural inputs Poor extension & support
What is agriculture’s role?
(Misselhorn et al, 2006)
1. Integrated POVERTY REDUCTION strategy:a) Pro-poor economic growth
b) Comprehensive social protection
2. Encourage AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT and allied non-farm enterprises to promote the livelihoods of those on the periphery of the formal economy
3. Alter and strengthen INSTITUTIONAL arrangements of the IFSS
4. Establish a well coordinated and well managed food security MONITORING, EVALUATION and INFORMATION system
Recommendations for achieving FS by 2019
(Misselhorn et al, 2006)
BETTER
INSTITUTIONAL & POLICY
SCENARIOS OF..
2007 2019
Reduced livelihoods capabilities and choices
Improved livelihoods capabilities and choices
THE LOCAL FOOD SECURITY ‘SYSTEM’
CROSS CUTTING STRESSORS
CROSS CUTTING POTENTIALITIES
WORSE
“Business as usual”
FO
OD
SE
CU
RIT
Y
Strengthening IFSS
(Misselhorn et al, 2006)
Review
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Review
(Downing and Ziervogel, 2004)
Challenges in Vulnerability Assessment
• Plethora of local studies of vulnerability– key lessons on the reduction of vulnerability– link with macro-scale analyses (hotspots -
livelihood analysis)
• Scale linkages– between local manifestations of vulnerability and
risk construction at more macro scales (trade relations, basin-wide environmental change, national policy)
• Complexity associated with consideration of interaction between multiple risks– economic shocks, socio-economic change,
environmental risks
Buzz group
Scenarios Indicators and mappingParticipatory livelihood methods
Between the 2(3) of you, each choose 1 method – describe to the other the strengths and weaknesses of your chosen approach
References
Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R, Tadross, M.A. 2008. Farming on the Edge' in arid western South Africa: adapting to climate change in marginal environments. Geography. 93. 98-107.
Bharwani, S., Bithell, M., Downing, T.E., New, M., Washington, R and Ziervogel, G. 2005. Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.
Bohle, H. G., Downing, T. E. and Watts, M. J. 1994.Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity. Global Environmental Change, 4(1): 37-48
Chopra, K., Leemans, R., Kumar, P., and Simons, H. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Policy responses, Volume 3. Findings of the Responses of Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Washington, Covelo, London: Island Press. Can be accessed at http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.327.aspx.pdf)
Downing and Ziervogel, 2004. Toolkit for Vulnerability and Adaptation Training. Stockholm Environment Institute.
Funtowicz, S.O. and Pereira, A. G. 1999. Visions report: Venice 2050. Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), 2007. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller H.L. (Eds), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. (accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html)
Mathur, V. 2005. High Risk Regions: Poverty and Vulnerability Briefing Note, SEI www.vulnerabilitynet.org
References continued
Miller, F. Downing, T. , Ziervogel,F. , Mathur, V. and Lindskog, E.2005. Vulnerability Assessment: an overview of approaches and methods. WTO and Environmental Protection Session on Sustainability Impact Assessment and National Impacts.Sept 2005
Misselhorn et al, 2006. Achieving Food Security in South Africa: Characteristics, Stressors & Recommendations to 2019. Report for the South African Government.
Myers, N., R. A. Mittermeier, C. G. Mittermeier, G. A. B. da Fonseca, and J. Kent. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853-858
Pereira, A.G. 2002. Venice and Visions. Presentation at Trieste AIACC workshop
Rennie, J. and N. Singh. 1996. Participatory research for sustainable livelihoods: a guidebook for field projects. Ottawa: IISD.
Ziervogel, G. 2004. 'Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho', The Geographical Journal. 170.1. 6-21.
Oxford English Dictionary (www.oed.com)
All web links were checked in November 2011
Acknowledgements: Some slide material from Tom E. Downing