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2Source:World Conference on Transport Research Society and the Institute for Transport
Policy Studies (2003) Urban Transport and the Environment: An International Perspective
World Energy Consumption
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World Transport Energy Consumption Forecasts
Source:World Conference on Transport Research Society and the Institute for Transport
Policy Studies (2003) Urban Transport and the Environment: An International Perspective
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World Motorization, 1960-2000
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World Motorization, 1960-2000
In Metro Manila, it was 59 cars per thousand persons in 1996Source: Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study (JICA, 1999)
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Energy Intensity and Population Density
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Energy Intensity (Energy Use Per Transport Mode)
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Projected Energy Demand by Sector(In Million Barrels of Fuel Oil Equivalent, MMBFOE)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
EnergyDemand
Industrial Commercial Transport
Agriculture Residential
Philippine Energy Demand (Projected), 2004-2014
countys transport sector accounts for the second largest share of
the countrys projected energy demand (28.71%)
59.0 MMBFOE in year2004 (approximately 8.52 MTOE)
annual rate of increase: 4.5%
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Philippine Energy Consumption
oil consumption in 2005 was at 349,000 barrels per day
(Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Philippines/Full.html) total Philippine energy consumption = 25.2 MTOE in 2006
0.2% of world (Source: BP)
Final Energy Demand by Sector
Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014 (DOE, 2007)Sector Share (%) CY2005 CY2006
Transport 38.6% 37.2% (8.37 MTOE)
Residential 28.8% 28.4%
Industry 22.9% 24.0%
Commercial 8.5% 9.1%
Agriculture 1.4% 1.3%
TOTAL (MTOE) 23.2 22.5
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Final Energy Demand by Transport Sub-Sector, 2006Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014 (DOE, 2007)
Sub-Sector Share (%) MTOE
Road 79.3%
Air (International) 9.1%
Air (Domestic) 2.9%
Water 8.5%
Rail 0.1%
TOTAL 100% 8.37
Philippine Transport Energy Consumption
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Energy Situation
2006
Tot l : 11. TOE
Sour
:
OE
2007Indu ry,
13%gr u ure,
2%
Co er a5%
e den a ,8%
ran por ,72%
Indu ry,9% gr u ure,
1%Co er a ,
3%
e den a ,7%
ran por ,80%
Sector l ConsumptionofOil
Tot l : 13.0 TOE
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2005 Ene De and by Sect2005 Ene y De and by Sect
2006 Ene y De and by Sect2006 Ene y De and by Sect
2006 Ene y Cons pt on of2006 Ene y Cons pt on of
TransportTransport
Current ConditionsCurrent Conditions
Sour e: DOE, Ph pp ne Energy P an, 2007Sour e: DOE, Ph pp ne Energy P an, 2007
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BACKGROUND: Energy Consumption ofRoad Transport
Estimate of fuel consumed based on transport
demand model, Metro Manila (2007)Fuel G line iesel(li/day) (li/day)
daily , , . , , .
(li/year) (li/year)
estimated
yearly , , , . , , , .
Comparison with 2006 annual national consumption
of automotive diesel oil from the Department of Energy
Diesel oil: 39,058,397 bbl/year
(approx. 6,171,22,726 li/year)If Metro Manila accounts for 45% of diesel fuel sales,
Diesel oil consumed in 2006 in Metro Manila
2,777,052,027 li/year
(transport demand model estimate is still conservative)
*1,692,534 li/day
(26%)
consumed
by jeepneys
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Energy Demand Determinant for Passenger Transport
Source: Sigua (1986)
Energy demand determinants for passenger transport
Figure 1
Averagedistance of
trips
Number of
trips
Developmentof transport
modes
Movement percapita
(km/year)
Population
Modal
distribution
Energyintensity of
each mode
Total passengertraffic (passenger
km)
Passenger trafficaccording to
mode
Energy demand
for passenger
transport
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Source: DOTC-JICA (2004)Survey on Inter-Regional Passenger and
Freight Flow in the Republic of the Philippines
Transport Activity, Philippines, 1980 and 2004
Passenger-Kilometers Ton-Kilometers
(millions) (percent) (millions) (percent)
Road 60,659 94.0 22,479 70.7
Rail1 476 0.8 73 0.2
Sea2
1,113 1.7 15 0.1
Air 1,113 1.7 15 0.1
TOTAL 64,521 100.0 31,805 100.0
Mode Nu ber of r ips( hous nd)
Share Millionpassenger-k
Share
oad 1,551,894 98.31% 325,235 97.52%
Water 16,370 1.04% 4,307 1.29%
ir 6,224 0.39% 3,748 1.12%
ail 4,132 0.26% 227 0.07%
O L 1,578,620 333,517
Share of Annual Person Trips by Mode (Inter-Regional)
Transport Activity, 1980
Source: Sigua (1986)
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BFOE Conversion Table
Form of Energy Unit BFOE
Electricity 600
KWh
1.0000
Regular asoline 1 bbl 0.8470
Premium 1 bbl 0.8624
Kerosene 1 bbl 0.8798
Diesel Oil 1 bbl 0.9328
LP 1 bbl 0.6384
Aviation as 1bbl 0.8475Fuel Oil
Pitch 1 bbl 1.0058
PPC 1bbl 1.0197
Coal (10,000BTU/lb) 1MT 3.3500
Alcohol 1bbl 0.5561
Bagasse (50% moisture) 1MT 1.4400Coconut Oil 1bbl 1.0000
*bbl barrels *MT metric tons * KWh- Kilowatt-hours
Source: DOE Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014
based on fuel oil equivalent of 18,600 BTU/lb
BFOE = 0.1444 TOE/bbl
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Vehicle-kilo eters (veh-k s) per vehicle type == no. of vehicles for each vehicle type average kilo eters
of run per vehicle type
No. of passengers =
aver
age lo
ad factor
vehicle-kilo eters
No. of passengers average kilo eters per vehicle =
= passenger-k s. (pass-k s)
Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand
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Fuel consumed = fuel consumption rate (km/li)
ave. kms per vehicle
for vehicles running on regular gasoline, fuel consumption can be determined by
Fuel consumed, in BFOE =fuel consumed, in L * 0.8470/1000 / 0.158987
for vehicles running on premium gasoline, fuel consumption can be determined by
Fuel consumed, in B
FOE =fuel consumed, in L
* 0.8624
/1000 / 0.15
8987
Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand ROAD
for vehicles utilizing diesel oil,
Fuel consumed, in BFOE= fuel consumed, in L * 0.9328/1000/0.158987
may still disaggregate with respect to number of kilometers
driven in urban and non-urban traffic conditions
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Fuel Consumption Factors by Vehicle/Fuel Type(li/km)
FUEL CONSUMPTION FACTORS
Vehicle-Fuel Type Fuel onsumptionFactor (li/km)
Fuel conomy(km/li)
ar/ tility Vehicle 0.105 9.52
Tricycle (2-stroke) 0.036 28.00
Gasoline
Tricycle (4-stroke) 0.030 33.33ar/ tility Vehicle 0.094 10.58
Truck 0.207 4.83
Jeepney 0.190 5.27*
iesel
us 0.254 4.37
Source: MM Model, Metro Manila rban Transportation
Integration Study (JI A, 1999)*based on 2007 survey
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!v!
6
1iii FCFdFC
Estimation ofFuel Consumption
The daily fuelconsu ption ofa particular road link iscalculatedby:
where:
FC= fuelconsu ption perlink (liters)
di = travel distance of vehicle type i(veh-k ) perlink
FCFi = fuelconsu ption factor of vehicle type i(li/veh-k )
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Energy Demand ofRoad Transport
Estimate of fuel consumed based on transport
demand model, Metro Manila (2007)
Comparison with 2006 annual national consumption data
(Department of Energy)
Diesel oil: 39,058,397 bbl/year (approx. 6,171,22,726 li/year)
Gasoline: 39,058,397 bbl/year (approx. 3,561,920,874 li/year)
If Metro Manila accounts for 45% of fuel sales (assumed),
Diesel oil: 2.777 billion liters/year
Gasoline: 1.602 billion liters/year
el aily (li/ ay) nn al (li/year)
Gasoline 3,350,234 1.223 billion
iesel 6,466,097 2.360 billion
iodiesel
(1%)
64,661 23.601 million
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)(1
9328.0*
159
1*
)/(
)/(expBFOEnconsu ptioenergy
bbl
BFOEbbl
YrPedieselpric
yrPensesfuel!
Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand RAIL
)(1
1*)( BFOEnconsu ptioenergy
Wh
BFOEWhnconsu ptioyelectricit !
Assumptions:
For the rail transport, fuel (diesel) price was averaged per year toobtain the fuel consumption of PNR.
The type of passenger-trains and freight-trains were assumed to
be the same.
In terms of amount of diesel fuel (e.g. PNR):
In terms of electricity consumed (e.g. LRT, MRT):
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)(on/)( LTransportAirofonsumptiFuelTotalairlineLnconsumptiofuel !7
)(1
8475.0*
159
1*)( BFOEnConsu ptioEnergy
bbl
BFOEbblnConsu ptioFuel !
Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand AIR
airlineLnconsumptiofuelhrgal
hrgalrateflownhoursYrwkswkflights /)(
/264172.0
)/(**/52*/ !
gal / li
For the air transport, an average fuel consumption per annum isestimated and then proportioned to the number of air
movement for the years
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Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand WATER
lack of information on fuel consumption rates of vessels
data used for energy consumption can be obtained from the
Department of Energy's computation which were based only
on petroleum products sales
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United States EU15 Japan
Source Emission % Emission % Emission %
Transport 488.1 31.7% 224.4 26.2% 68.1 21.5%
Other 1,051.8 630.9 248.2
TOTAL 1,539.8 855.4 316.3
Source: UNFCCC (From Urban Transport and the Environment: An International
Perspective, World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTR)
and the Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS), 2004)
CO2 Emission Levels in Developed Countries (2000), million tons carbon
TRANSPORT AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
Germany United Kingdom France
Source Emission % Emission % Emission %
Transport 49.9 22.0% 33.6 23.9% 37.6 36.6%
Other 177.0 106.7 65.0
TOTAL 226.8 140.3 102.6
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TRANSPORT AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
In 1990-2000 :
US and Japan: CO2
emissions from transport and other sectors
have continued to increase
Europe: CO2 emissions in transport are still increasing whileemission levels in other sectors have been on the decrease
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Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(2)
Controlling Vehicle Demand and Use
requires the use of strategies that have
broad impacts on lifestyle and behaviour
most trips made do not require full-sized
cars and in developing countries, this isnot often the best option in cost or travel time
while non-car options are generally cheaper, they are usually
slower
vehicle purchase is a major investment: most of the costs of
vehicle ownership are fixed and are paid up front and do notvary significantly with vehicle use strong incentive for car use
private vehicles are usually the most GHG-intensive transportation
mode per passenger-kilometer
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR-ITPS, 2004)
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Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(3)
Controlling Vehicle Demand and Use .. continued
increase in vehicle ownership use of public transport drops
often, government responds by consolidating routes and reduction
of frequency of services inconvenience to public transport users
more of these public transport users buy private vehicles
THE C CLE CONTINUES
increasing traffic congestion, emissions, transport energy use
and the need for costly, large-scale roadway infrastructure
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR-ITPS, 2004)
MOTORIZATION predicts CARBON EMISSIONS FROMTRANSPORT
(vehicle ownership and carbon emissions per capita are 90% correlated)
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Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(4)
Technology Strategies
require fewer lifestyle and behavioural changes
technology strategies focus on: fuels, propulsion technology,
other vehicle attributes (ex. size) and use of ICT
Table 3.5.3 GHG Emissions from Transport Modes in Developing
Countries (ASSUMPTIONS):
based on typical vehicles operating in developing countries by 2020
small increases in energy prices, gradual adoption of existing and
state-of-the-art efficiency innovations include principal GHG and emissions from the full fuel cycle
(from well to wheels)
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR-ITPS, 2004)
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Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(5)
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR-ITPS, 2004)
averageoccupancy CO2
-equivalent emissions perpassenger-km (full energy cycle)
Car (gasoline) 2.5 130-170
Car (diesel) 2.5 85-120
Car (natural gas) 2.5 100-135
Car (electric) 2.0 30-100
Scooter (2-stroke) 1.5 60-90
Scooter (4-stroke) 1.5 40-60
Minibus (diesel) 12.0 40-60
Bus (diesel) 40.02
0-
30Bus (natural gas) 40.0 25-35
Bus (hydrogen fuel cell) 40.0 3-6
Rail Transit (Metro) 75% full 20-50
Table 3.5.3 GHG Emissions from Transport Modes in Developing Countries, 2020
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Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(6)
Discussion of Results in Table 3.5.3
collective modes of transport consume far less energy and generatefewerGHG emissions than private vehicles
vehicles powered by electricity and
fuel cells tend to generate considerably
fewerGHG emissions than those poweredby internal combustion engines
small scooters and motorcycles
have relatively low GHG emissions,
roughly comparable to rail transit and
jitney-type transit services
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR
-ITP
S,
2004)
Toyota Prius (top); Toyota FCHV (bottom)
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Discussion of Results in Table 3.5.3
petrol tends to have the highest GHG emissions per kilometer ofthe commonly used fuels; natural gas tends to rank somewhat better,
diesel even better, and electricity best of all (except when coal is
mainly used to produce the electricity)
diesel
-associated GHG emissions are typically about 40% lower than
those associated with petrol because diesel engines are more efficient,
contains less energy per liter, and generate
emission with a lower global warming
potential than petrol engines
natural gas in place of gasoline, is likely
to generate 20% fewerGHG emissions
Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(7)
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR
-ITP
S,
2004)
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Phase 2: Increasing the energy efficiency of conventional engines
vehicles manufactured in India and China and other developing
countries do not generally incorporate the most fuel efficient tech.
India: new small cars sold today is over8 liters/100 km; small
2-stroke motorcycles achieve over3 liters/100 km and buses over
34 liters/100 km. due to less power and reduction in size
car manufacturers are continuing to increase vehicle efficiency in
response to tightening fuel economy standards in Japan, voluntary
CO2
standards in Europe and high fuel prices in most countries
Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(9)
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR
-ITP
S,
2004)
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Phase 3: Transition away from internal combustion engines to
electric drive propulsion technology electric drive systems: fuel cells, batteries and hybrid electric systems
would improve energy efficiency by at least 50%
these technologies are novel and expensive but costs are dropping
quickly and could be competitive with conventional ones
in 1-2 decades small numbers of battery-powered scooters
and cars are being sold in India, Taiwan
competitively priced hybrid
electric vehicles became available
internationally from Honda and Toyota
in 2000; others followed in 2004
fuel cell buses scheduled to be available in Shanghai and Delhi and
a number of cities in Europe and developing countries in 2002-03
Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(10)
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR
-ITP
S,
2004)
Toyota Estima Hybrid
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Policy Optionsand Framework
5 Fundamental Strategies to Reduce GHG Emissions from Transport
1. Increase vehicle efficiency
2. Switch to less greenhouse gas-intensive fuels
3. Switch to less greenhouse gas-intensive transport modes
4. Decrease travel distance
5. Increase occupancy of vehicles
Each strategy can be pursued, using a variety of policies and investments,
which fall into 3 general categories:
1. Direct mandates through regulation
2. Market-based policy instruments, such as taxes, subsidies or
roadway tolls
3. Direct investment
Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR
-ITP
S,
2004)
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REFERENCES
Sigua, Ricardo G. (1986)Transport Energy Demand Analysis,
Paper presented to the National Training Course on Integrated
Planning at the National Engineering Center Conference Room,
May 26,1986.
World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTR) and the
Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS) (2004)Urban
Transport and the Environment: An International
Perspective
Department of Energy (2007)Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014