Elections
American Government: Continuity and Change9th Edition O’Connor and Sabato
Just a review…..Just a review…..
Patterns in Voter TurnoutPatterns in Voter Turnout
Turnout: the proportion of the voting-age public that votes
◦40% of the eligible adult population votes
◦25% are occasional voters
◦35% rarely vote
Patterns in Voter TurnoutPatterns in Voter Turnout
Education: Voters tend to be more educated Income: Consistent voters have higher incomesAge: Younger people vote lessGender: Women vote at the same rate or
slightly higher rate than menRace and Ethnicity:
◦ Whites vote more regularly than African Americans – related to income and educational differences in the two groups
◦ Hispanics vote less than African Americans◦ Have potential to wield much influence given
their increasing size Interest in politics: Those interested in politics
vote more
Why Is Voter Turnout So Why Is Voter Turnout So Low?Low?Too BusyDifficulty of RegistrationDifficulty of Absentee VotingNumber of ElectionsVoter AttitudesWeakened Influence of Political
Parties
Efforts to Improve Voter TurnoutEfforts to Improve Voter Turnout
Easier Registration and Absentee VotingMake Election Day a HolidayStrengthen PartiesOther suggestions
◦ Holding fewer elections◦ Proportional representation system for
congressional elections◦ Saturday or Sunday election day◦ Making voting mandatory◦ Tax credits for voting◦ Election weeks rather than election days◦ Internet voting – FRAUD CONCERNS
Patterns in Vote ChoicePatterns in Vote Choice Party Identification
◦ Most powerful predictor voter behavior◦ Ticket-splitting: voting for candidates of different parties for
various offices in the same election
Race and Ethnicity◦ Whites increased tendency to vote Republican◦ African Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democrats◦ Hispanics also tend to identify with and vote for Democrats
Women today more likely to support Democratic candidates◦ Gender gap varies by election
Poor vote more often for Democrats; wealthier for Republicans
Ideology related closely to vote choice Conservatives for Republicans Liberals for Democrats
Voting: What do you think?
https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=ZG_IG-S1bfE
Assignment Assignment I want you to write 4 reflections of at least 5
sentences. You'll be sharing these tomorrow with a small group:
1. Watch this clip (and maybe the next one) and write whether or not you agree with John Stossel.
2. Argue both sides for literacy tests being a requirement for voting - for and against.
3. Argue that the voting age should stay 18 and then argue that it should be raised to 21.
4. Ask a person to share their voting experience (or feelings about voting) with you and summarize it.
5. Come up with three suggestions to improve voter turnout.
Purposes of ElectionsPurposes of Elections
Regular free elections ◦ guarantee mass political action ◦ enable citizens to influence the actions of their
government
Popular election confers legitimacy on a government that can be achieved no other way
Regular elections also ensure that government is accountable to the people it serves
Purposes of ElectionsPurposes of ElectionsElectorate
◦Citizens eligible to vote
Mandate:◦A command, indicated by an
electorate’s voters, for the elected officials to carry out their platforms
◦Sometimes the claim of a mandate is suspect because voters are not so much endorsing one candidate as rejecting the other
Primary ElectionsPrimary ElectionsElection in which voters decide which of the
candidates within a party will represent the party in the general election.
Closed primary: a primary election in which only a party’s registered voters are eligible to vote
Open primary: a primary in which party members, independents, and sometimes members of the other party are allowed to vote
Blanket primary: a primary in which voters can cast votes back and forth between candidates from any party.
Primary voting can bring:Primary voting can bring: Crossover voting: participation in the
primary of a party with which the voter is not affiliated
Raiding: An organized attempt by voters of one party to influence the primary results of the other party
Runoff primary: a second primary election between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes in the first primary
General ElectionsGeneral Elections
General elections are those in which voters decide which candidates will actually fill elective public offices
Held at many levels
Contests between the candidates of opposing parties
Initiative, Referendum, and Initiative, Referendum, and RecallRecallInitiative
◦An election that allows citizens to propose legislation and submit it to the state electorate for popular vote
Referendum◦An election whereby the state
legislature submits proposed legislation to the state’s voters for approval
Recall◦Voters can remove an incumbent from
office by popular vote◦Are very rare
Presidential ElectionsPresidential ElectionsPrimary elections or caucuses are
used to elect national convention delegates which choose the nominee ◦Winner-take-all primary◦Proportional representation primary◦Caucus
Primaries v. CaucusesPrimaries v. Caucuses
Primaries Caucuses
◦More democratic
◦More representative
◦A rigorous test for the candidate
◦ Caucus participants more informed; more interactive and informative
◦ Unfair scheduling affects outcomes
◦ Frontloading (being first in the primary calendar) gives some primary states an advantage Frontloading is the
tendency to choose an early date on the primary schedule
2012 Primary Results2012 Primary Resultshttp://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html
The Party ConventionsThe Party ConventionsOut-of-power party holds its convention
first, usually in late July/August, followed in August/Sept by party holding the presidency
Conventions were decision-making body in the 19th century
Today the convention is fundamentally different ◦ Nominations settled well in advance of the
convention because of primaries
For a review on all things For a review on all things elections….elections….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfrXIGclkLA
National Convention National Convention ScheduleSchedule
Day 1◦Keynote speaker
Day 2◦Announcement of party platform
National Convention National Convention ScheduleScheduleDay 3
◦Candidate nomination & speeches◦Balloting from the states (majority
rule)◦Winner (party nominee) names a VP
running mateDay 4
◦Confirm party nomination◦Nominee Acceptance speech◦Campaign Kickoff
2012 National 2012 National ConventionsConventions
Democrats Republicans
September 3 – 6, 2012
Charlotte, NC http://
www.demconvention.com/
August 27 – 30, 2012Tampa, FL www.gopconvention201
2.com
National Conventions: The News National Conventions: The News MediaMediaChanging nature of
coverage◦No prime time coverage on
some days◦Extending coverage on the
final day of each convention◦Reflects change in political
culture More interest in the candidates
themselves
◦Convention still generates much coverage for the party
The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral Collegehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9H3gvnN468 v=W9H3gvnN468 Representatives of each state
who cast the final ballots that actually elect a president
Total number of electors for each state equal to the number of senators and representatives that a state has in the U.S. Congress
District of Columbia is given 3 electoral votes (23rd Amendment)
The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral CollegeStates are “winner takes all”
◦Emphasis is placed on heavily populated states
◦Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions and use proportional voting
Vote of Electors◦First Monday after first Wednesday in
December◦Counted before joint session of
Congress in January by the Vice President.
The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral CollegeResult of compromise between:
◦ Selection by Congress versus direct popular election
Three essentials to understanding the design of the Electoral College:◦ Constructed to work without political parties◦ Constructed to cover both the nominating and
electing phases of presidential selection◦ Constructed to produce a nonpartisan
president
The Electoral College in the 19The Electoral College in the 19thth CenturyCentury
12th Amendment (1804)◦ Attempt to remedy the confusion between the
selection of vice presidents and presidents that emerged in the election of 1800
◦ Provided for separate elections for each office, with each elector having only one vote to cast for each
◦ In event of a tie, the election still went to the House Top three candidates go to House Each state House delegation casts one vote
The Electoral College in the Twentieth The Electoral College in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuriesand Twenty-First Centuries
Electoral college crises◦ At times a candidate can win the Electoral
College vote without having won the popular vote
Reapportionment matters◦ Representation of states in the Electoral
College is altered every ten years to reflect population shifts
◦ Party in power can work to earn more districts as new lines are drawn.
Congressional ElectionsCongressional ElectionsVery different from presidential elections
◦ Lesser known candidates, more difficulty getting media attention
Incumbency Advantage◦ Better known◦ Fundraising is easier◦ Can use office resources (franking privilege,
staff, travel, etc)◦ Can cite work already done in Washington
Congressional ElectionsCongressional ElectionsWhen incumbents lose it is generally due to:◦RedistrictingGerrymandering
◦Scandals◦Presidential Coattails
Midterm Congressional ElectionsMidterm Congressional Elections
Election takes place in the middle of a presidential term◦President’s party usually loses seats
in midterms◦Tendency for voters to punish the
president’s party more severely in the sixth year of an eight year presidency - 6th year itch Retrospective voting Senate elections less inclined to the
6th year itch
Reforming the Electoral Reforming the Electoral ProcessProcessFocus on the Electoral CollegeOther areas
◦Nomination Regional primaries
◦Campaign Finance Reform◦Online Voting◦Voting by Mail◦Modernizing the Ballot
Electoral College 2008Electoral College 2008
Obama 69,456,897 365McCain 59,534,814 173
2008 Presidential Election2008 Presidential ElectionVoting Age
Population: 231,229,580
Turnout: 132,618,580
%: 56.8%
Obama raised $532,946,511 and spent $513,557,218
McCain raised $379,006,485 and spent $346,666,422
Electoral Projections 2012