Sl s5l pt �
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Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage:
a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G
Mark Apperley University of Waikato
Aotearoa New Zealand
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
Overview:
• V2G concept, motivation and issues
• New Zealand scenario
• Rationale and simulation design
• Vehicle fleet and behaviour
• Simulation results
• Implications
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 2
Sl s5l pt �
c �
Vehicle to Grid (V2G) concept
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 3
• 1997 Kempton & Letendre reported detailed energy and economic analysis
• When connected to grid, EVs can be treated as both load and source
Vehicle to Grid (V2G) concept
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 4
• 1997 Kempton & Letendre reported detailed energy and economic analysis
• When connected to grid, EVs can be treated as both load and source
• Need to be “plugged-in” whenever not in use
• Need to know about immediate future requirements
Sl s5l pt �
t �
V2G motivation (1)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 5
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V2G motivation (1)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 6
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Sl s5l pt �
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V2G motivation (1)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 7
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V2G motivation (2)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 8
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Sl s5l pt �
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V2G motivation (3)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 9
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V2G motivation (3)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 10
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Sl s5l pt �
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V2G motivation (3)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 11
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V2G motivation (4)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 12
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Sl s5l pt �
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V2G motivation (4)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 13
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V2G motivation (4)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 14
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V2G motivation (5)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 15
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V2G issues and questions:
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 16
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Sl s5l pt �
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1. Can overall energy balance be maintained in real-time minimising peak generation requirements?
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 17
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2. Is the uptake of electric vehicles likely to be sufficient to ensure V2G’s viability?
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 18
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Sl s5l pt �
ps �
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3. Vehicle charging and control protocols and smart-grid integration are critical to the success of V2G
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 19
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4. Where vehicles are charged and the charging technology are detail issues, but highly relevant
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 20
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ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
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Sl s5l pt �
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5. At-home connection has significant implications for distribution networks and bi-directional flows
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 21
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6. Advances in EV technology will influence uptake, but also charging protocols, technology and usage patterns
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 22
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Sl s5l pt �
pc �
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ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 23
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7. Strategies on climate change, fossil fuel dependency/availability drive the need for renewable development
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 24
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8. V2G requires connection when not in use, prediction of future use, and increased charge cycles…
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Sl s5l pt �
pt �
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 25
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9. V2G disruptive technology, appropriate business models need careful shaping
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What is already known about V2G?
• Renewable integration potential demonstrated
• System issues eg distribution network topology, frequency stability
• Economic, social and business models
• Connection management techniques and protocols
• Small scale trials
• Large scale trials proposed
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 26
Sl s5l pt �
p5�
What is already known about V2G?
• Modelling tends to have been aggregate, short time period, or coarse time scale:
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 27
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NZ model : focus is energy balance
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 28
• Can V2G deliver improved renewable integration in the New Zealand environment?
• What are the implications: o for the electricity system as a whole o for vehicle owners
o for achieving energy strategy goals
• Fine grained & detailed simulation o individual components o short clock tick, full year duration
• Real data for wind and demand, up to 1M individual vehicles based on statistical model
Sl s5l pt �
pA�
Focus on energy balance
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 29
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New Zealand electricity scenario
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 30 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 3
• 9.4 GW capacity
• 43 TWh/year generation (~50% capacity)
• 74% renewables
hydro (56%)
geothermal (13%)
wind (4%)
• 40% wind farm capacity factor
Sl s5l pt �
pf �
New Zealand energy strategy
• Target 90% renewable electricity by 2025
• For wind alone, this needs 400% increase in contribution
• Current 4% wind contribution only 1/3 of capacity of installed turbines
• Other drivers for growth of renewables: increasing demands for electricity reducing dependency on fossil fuels greenhouse gas to 80% of 1990 levels by 2020 encouraging alternative transport fuels and EVs
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 31
Renewable integration issues for NZ
• High proportion of existing renewable energy
• Relatively small and stand-alone grid
• Simple government and regulatory environment
• Record as test-bed for nation-wide systems (eg banking)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 32
Sl s5l pt �
pm�
Simulation overview
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 33
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Simulation overview
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 34
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Peak generation varied to match load and shortfall in wind and base generation
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Simulation overview
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 35
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Ideal is to be able to remove need for peak generation
Bulk load
• Have real zone-load data from the transmission network operator
• Covers entire grid
• 5 minute intervals over a whole year
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 36
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pS�
Base generation
• Calculated as a fraction of average demand (including EVs) with 3 month sliding window
• Fraction determined by % wind penetration
• In reality a mix of generation types – hydro, geothermal, etc
• Does not attempt to follow load, just seasonal variation
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 37
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ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 37
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Peak generation
• Fills shortfall between other generation and load
• Generators must be highly responsive
• Need for peak generation shows inefficiency
• In this simulation, the required peak generation at any instant is output data rather than input data
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 38
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Generators must be highly responsive
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cs �
Wind generation
• Dataset of wind speed at 10 minute intervals for current and planned wind farm sites over several years
• All 17 sites aggregated to form one large wind farm, and single wind energy value at each time interval
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 39
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New Zealand vehicle use
• 4.4M population
• 2.6M light passenger vehicles
• These are 78% of all road vehicles, and are basis for simulation
• Average vehicle use 3.3% over year
• Average distance per day 28Km over 3 journeys
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 40
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cp�
New Zealand EV potential
• Typical present-day EV:
Range ~150–160 km
16–24 kWh battery
• Assume 1M EVs (40% of fleet)
50 kWh battery
only 3.3% in use at any time
48 GWh of storage
could supply peak load for 3 hours
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 41
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New Zealand EV uptake
• NZ has aging car fleet
average age 12.5 years
terminal distance 195,000km
• Current retirement/replacement rate would take 17 years to renew entire fleet
• Current uptake of EVs is low (no incentives)
• Estimates suggest 1M EVs by 2040 is realistic (even without incentives)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 42
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cc �
Electric vehicle simulation model
• Two parts to the vehicle model used in the simulation: electrical model – determines charge/discharge
decisions when vehicle connected to the grid
behaviour model – controls timing and energy use of journeys
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 43
Electrical model
• Basic physical parameters can be set separately for each vehicle.
• When connected to grid, each EV makes own decision about charging, discharging or remaining idle (decentralised smart charging)
• Naïve protocols might charge at maximum rate until full, or at minimum rate to meet the requirements of the next trip
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 44
Sl s5l pt �
ct �
Electrical model (2)
• We use a cooperative four-state model controlled by three boolean parameters: F – vehicle fully charged N – grid in deficit
P – vehicle able to supply grid
• P determined by state of charge, time to next trip, and required charge for next trip
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 45
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required charge for next trip
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F – vehicle fully charged
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Cooperative charging model
• Charge/discharge as required to balance grid, until charging imperative to reach required charge for next journey.
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 46 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
Sl s5l pt �
c5�
Vehicle behaviour
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 47 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
• Each journey specified by a departure time, distance, and average speed
• Journeys derived from this survey data
Simulation in operation
At each tick (5 minutes) these steps occur: update vehicle connections (departures and
arrivals)
derive new input values – load, wind, base
update charge/discharge state for each EV (based on appropriate charging protocol)
calculate network balance (peak required or wastage)
record all relevant data for this cycle
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 48
Sl s5l pt �
cA�
Energy balance vs fleet size
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 49 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
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Energy balance review (1)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 50
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cf �
Energy balance review (2)
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 51
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Energy balance vs wind penetration
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 52
e � � � � �e � � � � �
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 52
e � � � � �
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Sl s5l pt �
cm�
Peak (& spillage) “load” duration
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 53 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
f s s s � � 3 � vf 68 � 0� � i 9 � b� 2� � 2� � 0y04� 43020� 0 �3� 1g� 3� � � 9 0 2� / 0� 4� �� � �/ � � � � � / 0� 4� �� � �
Demand smoothing ?
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 54 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
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Sl s5l pt �
c6�
Failed EV journeys
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 55 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa
a � � � �
shf 8 � � � � g3� �
s hsssc8 � � �� g3� �
Issues and implications
• V2G can improve renewable integration, but avoidance of back-up investment not established
• Use of back-up significantly reduced suggesting new alternatives
• Spillage significantly reduced suggesting improved efficiency and capacity factors
• Wind penetration of 30% to 50% definitely achievable
• Many advantages with EV uptake at only 12-15%
• Failed journeys could be an issue; better estimates of immediate future use needed
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 56
Sl s5l pt �
cS�
Future work
• Improving estimates of immediate future needs • More detailed analysis of charge station
requirements
• Adding network topology to simulation • Exploring non-homogenous vehicle mix, including
PHEVs
• Charge cycles and battery life implications • Economic and business models, and “fit” with
electricity supply industry
• Individual and society issues
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 57
ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 58
Mark Apperley University of Waikato
Aotearoa New Zealand New Zealand
more information on this work at: http://idslm.cms.waikato.ac.nz/