Download - Elway Poll - RealClearPolitics · PDF fileNeither One Over 50% ... new Elway Poll conducted last week, but neither Democrat has crested 50%. The Presidential race is discussed on page

©THE ELWAY POLL 15 AUG 16

15 AUGUST 16

© THE ELWAY POLL 2016 Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.

Clinton, Inslee Hold Double-digit Leads in WA; Neither One Over 50% BothHillary Clinton and Jay Inslee have double-digit leads over their Republican opponents in thenewElwayPollconducted lastweek,butneitherDemocrathas crested50%.ThePresidential race isdiscussedonpage2.TheraceforGovernorappearsfrozen.TheresultsoftheAugustsurveyareexactlythesameastheywereinAprilandonly1-2pointsdifferentfromthePrimaryElectionresults.InsleeledBillBryantbya48%to36%margininbothAprilandAugust.HewonthePrimaryby49%to38%.Theunderlyingdynamicsoftheracehavenotchangedmucheither.Partyidenti icationiscertainlykeytoInslee’selectoralstrength.Insleehad92%ofthesupportofDemocratsandBryanthad83%of theRepublicansupport.Bryant ledamongIndependents39-31%.Insleeispolling10pointsabovetheproportionofDemocratsinthissurvey.LastJanuaryhewasonly4pointsaheadofthenumberofDemocrats.Bryantispolling12pointsabovetheproportionofRepubli-cans.InJanuaryhewas8pointsaheadoftheRepublicanidenti iers.TheadvantageistoInsleebecauseDemocratshelda12-pointpartyidenti icationadvantageinthissurvey(38%to24%Republican).Anotherkeytothiselectionisincumbency.Electionsarealmostalwayslargelyareferendumontheincumbent.Eventhoughthisyear’selectoratehasbeencastashighlydissatis iedwiththestatusquo,therehasnotbeenastrongconstituencytoturnInsleeout.Hisjobperformanceratingsremainunder-water,wheretheyhavebeenhisentireterm(p.3).However,theyimprovedbyanet+10pointssincethe irstoftheyear:

• InDecember,39%ratedhim“excellent”or“good”vs.58%“onlyfair”or“poor.”(Net–19);• InAugust,43%said“excellent”or“good”vs.52%“onlyfair”or“poor.”(net–9).Jobratingscanbeunreliableasanelectionguide.Amongthosewhosaidheisdoingan“onlyfair”jobasgovernor,heledBryantby41-39%.Inanearliersurvey,55%saidhewasdoingan“onlyfair”or“poor”job,butwhile71%ofthesamevoters rated is job performance as “satisfactory” or better(July2015).One new factor in the race is Donald Trump. By a netmarginof–33%,respondentssaidtheywouldbemorelikelyto vote againstthan fora candidate who endorsed Trump.ThemarginforanendorsementofClintonwas–7%.StayingawayfromTrumpappearstobethesmartmove.However,38%ofthesesamerespondentswouldbelikelytovoteagainstaRepublicancandidatewhorefusedtoendorseTrump.12%were likely tovote for sucha candidate, for anetof–26%.Further illustrating the tightrope Bryant must walk,amongvotersundecidedinthegovernor’srace:• 38%wouldvoteagainstacandidatewhoendorsedTrump(10%wouldvoteforthatcandidate);but• 21%wouldvoteagainstaRepublicanwhodidnotendorseTrump(10%wouldfavorthatcandidate).

VOTE FOR GOVERNOR

VOTE FOR PRESIDENT


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Clinton Leads Trump by 43% to 24% WashingtonhasnotvotedforaRepublicanforPresidentsince1984and,asthingsstandtoday,votersdonot intend to break that streak.Hillary Clinton ledDonaldTrumpby a 43-24%margin in a newElwayPollcompletedovertheweekend.Amongthemostlikelyvoters,Clinton’sleadstretchedto45-24%.Likelyvotersarede inedhereasvoterswhohavevotedinatleast2ofthelast4elections.Theycomprise70%ofthissample.LibertarianGary Johnsonhad7%amongallvoters,whileGreenPartycandidate JillSteingot4%;16%wereundecidedand6%saidtheymaynotvoteforpresidentthistime.Washingtonhasahistoryofsupport for thirdpartycandidates:RossPerotgot19%of thevotehere in1992and9%in1996;JohnAndersongot11%in1980,andwhocanforgetthattheBullMoosepartywonthestatein1912.Clinton also had an edge in enthusiasm, although neither candidate was too impressive on thatscore.Askedwhether their support for their candidatewas “enthusiastic,” moderate,” “reluctant”ortheywere voting for the “lesser of two evils,” Clinton’s supporterswere considerablymore positivethanTrump’s.AmongClinton’ssupporters:37%wereenthusiasticwhile24%werereluctant(5%)orvotingforthe“lesserevil”(19%).OfTrump’svoters:33%werevotingforthe“lesserevil”andonly25%wereenthusiasticsupporters.Overall,16%ofallrespondentswereenthusiasticClintonsupporters,while6%ofrespondentswereenthusiasticTrumpsupporters.Clinton’sstrongestsupportcamefrom:• Democrats(86%vs.2%forTrump,4%forSteinand2%whomaynotvote);• Women(50%vs.17%forTrump);• KingCounty(55%vs.13%forTrump);• Voterswithpost-graduateeducations(62%vs.14%forTrump).Trump’sstrongestsupportcamefrom:• Republicans(60%vs.6%forClinton,7%forJohnson,and8%whomaynotvote);• Menwithoutcollegedegrees(37%vs.25%Clinton);• EasternWashington(37%vs.29%forClinton).DOWN-BALLOT IMPACT Few pols or pundits expect Trump to carry Washingtonstate.Thebiggerquestionhereandelsewhere is thepotentialdownballotimpactofthepresidentialrace.Weaskedvotersiftheywould bemore likely to vote fororagainsta state candi-datewhoendorsedClintonorTrump.Theneteffectofanendorsementofeitherremainsnegative,but the overall impact has decreased slightly for both candi-datessincelastApril:59%saidanendorsementofClintonwouldmakeadifference.Thenetimpactwas–7%(+26%/-33%)comparedto67%inApril,withanetof-9%(+29%/-38%).Meanwhile67%saidanendorsementofTrumpwouldmakeadifference.Thenetimpactwas–33%(+17/-50%),comparedto74%inApril,withanetof–36%(+19%/-55%).Some38%saidtheywouldvoteagainstaRepublicancandi-dateforstateof icewhodidnotendorseTrump.

LEVEL OF ENTHUSIASM

DOWN BALLOT IMPACT OF ENDORSEMENT


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Sample Prof i le

T h e E l w a y P o l l

S e a t t l e , W A 2 0 6 / 2 6 4 - 1 5 0 0 F A X : 2 6 4 - 0 3 0 1

[email protected]

500 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state, were interviewed August 9-13 2016 by live, professional interviewers. 36% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within ±4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times.

REGION Seattle ....................................................................... 11% King County ............................................................... 19% Pierce/Kitsap ............................................................. 15% No. Puget Sound ....................................................... 17% Western WA .............................................................. 17% Eastern WA ............................................................... 21%

GENDER Male ........................................................................... 49% Female ....................................................................... 51%

VOTE HISTORY 0-1 Votes cast in previous 4 elections ....................... 30% 2 or more Votes cast in previous 4 elections .......... 70%

PARTY ID Democrat ................................................................... 38% Republican ................................................................. 24% Independent ............................................................... 38%

AGE 18-35 ......................................................................... 11% 36-50 ......................................................................... 21% 51-64 ......................................................................... 37% 65+ ............................................................................. 29%

EDUCATION High School ............................................................... 13% Some College / Voc-Tech .......................................... 27% College Degree .......................................................... 39% Graduate Degree ....................................................... 29%

INCOME $50,000 or less .......................................................... 21% $50 to 74,000 ............................................................. 18% $75 to 99,000 ............................................................. 18% $100,000+.................................................................. 26% No Answer ................................................................. 17%

The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public opinion in Washington and the Northwest, published since 1992.

PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each quarter, space is reserved in the questionnaire for organizations to insert their own, proprietary questions. Sponsors are thus able to ask their own questions for a fraction of the cost of a full survey. Results, with demographic crosstabulations, are provided within three days after the interviews are completed.

CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables is available for $100.

The Elway Poll

ONLY FAIR+

POOR

EXCELLENT +

GOOD

MANAGING STATE GOVERNMENT

ONLY FAIR+

POOR

EXCELLENT +

GOOD

PROVIDING LEADERSHIP TO THE LEGISLATURE

ARTICULATING A VISION OF THE FUTURE OF WA

ONLY FAIR+

POOR

EXCELLENT + GOOD

REPRESENTING WA TO THE COUNTRY AND WORLD

ONLY FAIR+

POOR

EXCELLENT +

GOOD

ONLY FAIR+

POOR

EXCELLENT +

GOOD

OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE

Uptick for Inslee Job Rating Governor Inslee’s overall job performance ratingticked up to its best mark since July 2014, with43% of respondents saying he is doing a“excellent”(7%)or“good”job(36%)vs.52%say-ing“onlyfair”(28%)or“poor”(24%).Hisratingsforall5measuresremaininnegativeterritory, but all 5were better than theywere inJanuary.Hisoverall ratingwashigher thananyofthe4speci icmeasures.