+ All Categories
Transcript
Page 1: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Made possible by

Holiday Shopping 2014

Online Trends and Forecast

Yory Wurmser

Retail Analyst

September 18, 2014

Page 2: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Agenda

US ecommerce forecast for 2014 holiday season

Mobile’s expanding role in US ecommerce

Emerging technology trends this season

Fulfillment: Are last year’s shipping issues resolved?

Key takeaways

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 3: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

eMarketer’s

US Holiday Ecommerce

Forecast for 2014

Page 4: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

US retail

ecommerce

will grow

16.6% this

holiday

season, up

from last

year’s

15.3% rise

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 5: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Ecommerce

accounts for

a growing

share of US

retail sales

during the

holiday

season

Page 6: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

What’s driving this year’s strong ecommerce

growth?

1. Greater comfort with mobile buying

2. Improved retail sales overall

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 7: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

1. More consumers are getting comfortable with

buying on their mobile devices …

Page 8: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

… leading to more mobile sales

US retail

mcommerce sales

will grow 37.3%

in 2014

Mcommerce’s

share of US retail

ecommerce

will reach 19.0%

in 2014

Page 9: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Mobile shopping plays an even bigger role during

the holiday season

In 2013, Black Friday was the

season’s biggest mobile sales

day

People bought with their

phones and tablets while

waiting in line

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 10: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

2. A strong year for ecommerce will mirror an

improved season for US retail sales overall

Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014

Page 11: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Despite solid sales growth, three factors will

keep retail from excelling this holiday season

Image source: Shutterstock

Page 12: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

1. Slow real-income growth

Real income in

the US is up 2.3%

since Jan. 2014

But it’s down

2.0% overall

since Dec. 2012

Per capita real

income is down

8% since 2007

Source: BEA, Aug. 2014 Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 13: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Slow real-income growth leaves consumers

cautious

“The big issue is the economy. You’re

not going to see big sales growth

until you see real-income growth.”

—Craig Johnson, president of Consumer

Growth Partners

Page 14: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

2. Retailers overestimated consumer demand in

2013

Image source: Shutterstock

Page 15: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Retailers are making conservative inventory

choices in 2014

“ [Last year], the conversion rates were

starting to fall below plans, the pricing

pressure started to get significant, and the

promotional levels started to elevate.…

[This year], we’re seeing very, very lean

levels of inventory going into the back half

[of the year]. Retailers would rather

compromise sales for better profitability.”

—Stephanie Wissink, co-director of research and

senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray

Page 16: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

3. 2014 has a short holiday season

Page 17: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

A short season will only marginally affect total

sales but shift retailer and shopper behavior

“ We are going to start seeing

much more aggressive ads a lot

sooner in the year. People tend to

procrastinate and there will just

be fewer days to buy items.”

—Clay Olivier, CEO of Volusion

Page 18: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Recap: Despite challenges, US retail ecommerce

will have a stellar holiday season

Sales will grow 16.6%, boosted by:

1. More mobile commerce

2. 5.0% year-over-year growth in overall US retail sales

Three factors will hold spending back:

1. Slow real-income growth

2. Cautious retailers

3. Short season

Page 19: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Mobile’s Ever-Expanding

Role in Holiday Sales

Page 20: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Mobile sales are still relatively small …

1.2%

of US retail sales occur on mobile devices

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 21: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

… but mobile’s impact on shopping is much

larger

In 2014:

145.9 million US mobile

shoppers

74% of US digital

shoppers shop with their

phones

23 million more

US mobile shoppers

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 22: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

The majority of US smartphone owners in all age

cohorts shop in-store with their phones

Page 23: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

The influence of mobile shopping on total retail

sales is huge

In the 2014 holiday

season, mobile

shopping (i.e.,

research) before or

during in-store trips will

influence between a

quarter and a half of all

US retail sales,

eMarketer estimates

Page 24: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Recap:

Mcommerce sales are still only a small part of total US

retail sales

The majority of US shoppers are mobile shoppers

Mobile will influence between a quarter and half of all

US in-store retail sales this holiday season

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 25: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Emerging Technologies

Page 26: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Ubiquitous mobile shopping is spurring retailers

to test two emerging technologies this season

1. Beacons

2. Visual search

Page 27: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

1. Beacons

Image source: Estimote.com

Page 28: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Beacons will be more common this year

“ More than half of the top 100 retailers are

actively working with beacon technology

now. They’re in different stages, but all of

them are evaluating, testing, piloting,

trying it out. We’re going to see at least

several retailers announce very large-

scale, public rollouts to support holiday

campaigns.”

—Rob Murphy, VP of marketing at Swirl

Page 29: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

HBC is one of the first major retailers to deploy

beacons system-wide

HBC will cover 130 of its

Hudson’s Bay Co. and Lord &

Taylor stores with beacons

Each store will have multiple

beacons

Offers will come via HBC apps

and third-party coupon app

SnipSnap

Image source: HBC.com

Page 30: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Third-party apps overcome the limits of branded

retailer apps

Beacon provider Swirl

announced a partnership with

Epicurious

Epicurious app holders will

receive messages when

entering stores of partnering

retailers Image source: iTunes

Page 31: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

eMarketer’s view on beacons this holiday

season:

Retailers will expand experiments with beacons

Direct effect on sales this season will be limited

Beacon’s biggest impact will come via third-party apps

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 32: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

2) Visual

search

Image courtesy of Slyce

Page 33: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Amazon.com’s Firefly jumpstarted visual search

Image source: Yory Wurmser

Page 34: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Retailers see opportunity in visual search

“ We’re hearing a lot of brands say

that they want to be able to

capitalize on impulse purchasing

at the moment of inspiration

when they see something.”

—Mark Elfenbein, CEO of Slyce

Page 35: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Target’s In a

Snap, an early

branded visual

search tool:

Works with Target

advertising

Does not need QR or

bar codes

More examples

should follow this

season

Image source: In a Snap

Page 36: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

eMarketer’s view on visual search:

Firefly has ushered in an era of visual search

experimentation

Firefly and other early versions have limited

functionality, but newer search tools show promise

Until visual search can readily identify objects in the

wild, and from various angles, consumers will not use

it widely

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 37: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Fulfillment:

Will Retailers Avoid Last

Year’s Problems?

Page 38: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

2013: Missed deliveries made headlines

Midwest snowstorms hit

FedEx and UPS hubs

Roughly 33% of major

etailers tracked by Stella

Service missed deliveries

Amazon, Kohl’s and

Nordstrom were among

the retailers affected

Image source: Shutterstock

Page 39: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Consumers depend on reliability of cutoff dates

96%

deem guaranteed delivery dates important

46%

will look elsewhere after a late delivery Source: CFI Group

Page 40: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

2014: Shippers

are building

networks to avoid

last year’s issues

UPS will hire 90K to 95K

seasonal employees, up

10K from last year

UPS has invested an extra

21% in new technology

and manpower (Source: WSJ)

FedEx also expects to hire

more seasonal workers

Image source: UPS

Page 41: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

It won’t be enough

“ Consumers are increasingly taking

advantage of two-day shipping and

waiting until the last minute to do their

holiday shopping. … The trend is

growing faster than the logistics that

are there to keep up with it.”

—Chris Mason, co-founder of Branding

Brand

Page 42: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Retailers are overcoming the limits of the

shipping network in 3 ways:

1. Distributive

shipping

2. In-store pickup

3. A commitment to

removing shipping

bottlenecks

Image source: UPS

Page 43: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

1. Distributive

fulfillment

Image source: Shopatron

Online Order

Order management system

Page 44: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Shipping from stores gives multichannel retailers

a way to fight back against pure plays

“ Distributed technology

is fundamentally the

most resilient and most

diverse system that can

exist. You have two

hands. If you lose one,

you’ve got another

one.”

—Ed Stevens, CEO of

Shopatron

‘Zone-skipping’

Increased

productivity

of store staff

Reduced shipping

times

Page 45: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Distributive fulfillment: Modell’s

Harmonized online and in-store

inventory

Began drop-shipping to

increase available styles

and sizes

Added ship-from-store, and

continues to add stores to the

system

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Image source: Modell’s.com

Page 46: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

2. In-store pickup: Customers can fulfill online

orders themselves

40% of in-store

pickups lead to

additional in-store

purchases (Source: Shopatron)

10% of Target’s

online orders are for

in-store pickup

In-store pickup can

serve last-minute

orders

Image source: Target.com

Page 47: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Consumers who default to in-store pickup remain

the exception

Page 48: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

3. Successful etailers make it easy for the

shipping companies

Image from Zappos.com

Page 49: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Zappos.com: Few problems last year despite late

cutoff date

“ Inventorying all product is one

variable of [our success]. We also

have a great relationship with UPS

and are committed within our

company and all of our fulfillment

centers to meet those deadlines and

get those packages out as soon as

possible to our customers.”

—Maura Dailey, senior manager of customer

loyalty at Zappos.com

Page 50: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Zappos minimizes potential breakdowns

All products in-stock

No drop-shipping

Priority relationships with shippers

Phone reps focus on serviceImage source: Zappos.com

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 51: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

eMarketer’s viewpoint on fulfillment:

Shippers are better prepared this year

Problems will persist nonetheless, because shoppers

expect quick delivery

Multichannel retailers have an opening to capture

last-minute shoppers via in-store pickup

Forward-looking etailers are simplifying fulfillment

processes and building relationships with shippers

Page 52: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Takeaways

US retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.6% year-over-year in

the 2014 holiday season

US retail sales overall will have a good season, with sales up

5.0%. But slow income growth and retailer caution will keep

that figure from being even higher

The ubiquity of mobile shopping will convince retailers to test

new technologies that bring the physical and virtual shopping

worlds together (e.g., beacons and visual search)

Fulfillment will remain a challenge, but retailers will turn to

distributive fulfillment, in-store pickup and better coordination

with shippers to mitigate problems

Twitter – #eMwebinar

Page 53: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

#1 Ranked eMail Marketing Platform

• Ranked No. 1 among email marketing

providers to the Internet Retailer Top 1000

• Built for commerce: conversions,

transactions and revenue

• Highly personal, relevant email and cross-

channel marketing

• Sophisticated made simple

Susan Wall|VP, Marketing | Bronto Software

Page 54: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

Bronto’s Holiday Resource Center

Visit Bronto’s Holiday

Resource Center to find

everything a retail marketer

needs for the holidays.

• 2014 Holiday Planning Guide

• Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays

• Interactive plans, checklists and guides

• On-demand holiday webinars, plus much more!

resources.bronto.com/holidays

Page 55: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

Tips & Tricks Newsletter

• Expertise from the field

• White papers

• Customer success stories

• Blog posts

bronto.com/resources

Page 56: eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

© 2014 eMarketer Inc.

Learn more about digital marketing with an

eMarketer corporate subscription

Around 200 eMarketer reports are published

each year. Here are some recent reports you

may be interested in:

Q&A Session

Made possible by

You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view

the deck and webinar recording.

To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products

800-405-0844 or [email protected]

Yory Wurmser

Holiday Shopping 2014

Online Trends and Forecast

Holiday Shopping Preview: Ecommerce Grows as Brick-and-

Mortar Stores Embrace Digital

2014 Back-to-School Preview: Ecommerce Sales to Log

Above-Average Gains

Proximity Marketing in Retail: Can Ecommerce Tactics Revive

Brick-and-Mortar?

Bronto


Top Related