©2012 eMarketer Inc.
SEPTEMBER 20, 2012
Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends
Jeffrey Grau
Principal Analyst
Sponsored by:
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today:
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo-sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Online holiday sales will post strong growth for the fourth consecutive year
Online sales for November and December will reach $54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011
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©2012 eMarketer Inc.
What is your outlook for the online holiday shopping season?
Jay HendersonStrategy Program Director, Cross Channel MarketingIBM Enterprise Marketing Management
Scot WingoCEO, Chairman of the Board and Co-FounderChannelAdvisor
Ryan GibsonVice President of MarketingThe Rimm-Kaufman Group
Eric BestFounder and CEOMercent
“The overall growth we’re expecting should be in line with 2011 or
potentially slightly better.”
Source: eMarketer interview, July 31, 2012
“We’re thinking 20% growth for the
holidays.”
Source: eMarketer interview, August 10, 2012
“I feel comfortable saying growth will be
in the neighborhood of 20%.”
Source: eMarketer interview, August 8, 2012
“We’re not expecting to see a soft yearby any means.”
Source: eMarketer interview, August 2, 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Retail ecommerce sales are off to a strong start in 2012
The US Department of Commerce and comScore both estimate online sales grew 15% in H1 2012
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©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Online holiday sales will be in line with strong ecommerce sales for all of 2012
Retail ecommerce sales are forecast to reach $224 billion in 2012, up 15.4% over 2011
In 2012, $54.5 billion in online holiday sales will account for 24.3% of total ecommerce sales
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers will shop for holiday gifts both earlier and later in the season
In 2011, online spending was strong in early November and late December
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©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Holiday creep will continue this year
($ millions) 2010 2011 % change
Nov 1–20 $8,470 $9,670 14%
Source: comScore Inc.
FINDING 1: Some 31% of retailers will start their holiday promotions earlier this year, with 42% of them starting in October (Source: Hay Group)
FINDING 2: By Black Friday 2011 (Nov 25), 54% of online shoppers had completed more than one-quarter of their holiday purchases, compared to 49% of shoppers in 2010 (Source: Compete)
OBSERVATION: Black Friday deals have morphed into Black November deals
TAKEAWAY: Retailers compete for wallet share and try to get shoppers to buy over multiple paychecks
“Halloween is the new Thanksgiving.” —Scot Wingo, CEO of ChannelAdvisor
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busy holiday shopping weekend
($ millions) 2010 2011 % change
Thanksgiving Day $407 $479 18%
Source: comScore Inc.
“Retailers must begin promoting deals a day early and be prepared to keep them fresh on Black Friday to hold shoppers’ interest.” —John Squire, director of digital marketing and analytics at IBM
OBSERVATION 1: Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busy Thanksgiving weekend for shopping, eclipsing Black Friday, which itself only became a big online shopping day in recent years
OBSERVATION 2: People are bringing their smartphones and tablets with them to their Thanksgiving dinner at friends’ or relatives’ homes and using their mobile devices to shop before and after the Thanksgiving meal.
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers will continue holiday shopping right through Christmas
FINDING 1: On Xmas Day 2011, online sales grew 16.4% and sales from mobile devices increased 173% YOY (Source: IBM)
FINDING 2: Last year, 39% of online consumers shopped after Christmas and 32% finished holiday shopping post-Christmas. (Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX)
FINDING 3: Before the start of the 2011 holiday, over 60% of
consumers were already looking forward to post-holiday deals. 70% of post-holiday shoppers made purchases for themselves but also looked for gifts for close family members (Source: Yahoo!)
($ millions) 2010 2011 % change
Dec 19–Jan 1 $4,437 $5,330 20%
Source: comScore Inc.
“Retailers’ focus on express shipping at discount prices or even for free, as well as an increase in in-store pick up messaging, contributed to strong sales leading up to Xmas.”
—Chad White, director of research at Responsys
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers also shopped online earlier and later in the day on Cyber Monday
2010 2011
Before 9am 3% 12%
5pm–9pm 24% 34%
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Nearly 1 in 4 online consumers purchased a gift via a daily deal site during the 2011 holiday season
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©2012 eMarketer Inc.
This year, holiday shoppers will take advantage of retailers’ own daily deals
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Daily deals have become an important draw for creating seasonal demand
Scot WingoCEO, Chairman and Co-FounderChannelAdvisor
Eric BestFounder and CEOMercent
“Creating branded experiences for the shopper is more important
than ever for retailers.”
Source: eMarketer interview, July 31, 2012
“Daily deals are another interesting promotional dial that we didn’t see last holiday season that so far this
year consumers and retailers are really warming up to.”
Source: eMarketer interview, August 10, 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers and retailers both benefit from daily deals
Daily deals tend to be used to sell off inventory at big discounts of 30% to 50%
Retailer use daily deals to catch the attention of shoppers early in the holiday season
Daily deals give retailers license to contact shoppers frequently
Big discounts can generate a lot of word-of-mouth on social networks, especially when retailers offer fan-exclusives via Facebook and Twitter
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Smartphone and table shopping are engines of ecommerce growth
In December 2011, mobile shoppers contributed 14.6% of traffic and 11.0% of sales on retail sites
“By December 2012, mobile sales will double and exceed 20% of site sales.”—Jay Henderson, strategy program director of cross channel marketing at IBM
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©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Tablets are the preferred portable device for making purchases
Meanwhile, 77.6% of respondents to Baynote’s study indicated they used their mobile phone to research and comparison shop
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Research on a smartphone often leads to a purchase in-store or online via a PC
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Smartphones are used to satisfy immediate shopping needs
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Usage of comparison-shopping apps is exploding
ShopSavvy
RedLaser (owned by eBay)
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Tablet shoppers outspend smartphone and traditional online shoppers
During Holiday 2011, tablet users spent 20% more per order, on average, than desktop online shoppers
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Tablets are stretching the online shopping day beyond business hours
Yonatan FeldmanVP of Mobile & Global EngineeringGilt Groupe
Matt JonesGeneral Manager of MobileHome Depot
“We see a spike in traffic between 8pm and 10pm. People are at home, they’re lying on the couch or in bed. The traffic
is less hurried …”
Source: eMarketer interview, May 1, 2012
“We’re seeing 80% spikes in traffic on weekends over a typical
weekday, starting around 9am or 10am, and going all the way through
11pm.”
Source: eMarketer interview, April 24, 2012
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today:
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo-sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Photo-sharing sites will be a new source of holiday traffic for certain retailers
Pinterest has emerged as a serious contender to Facebook in driving visitors to apparel sites
“Pinterest users are very heavy online spenders.”—Andrew Lipsman, vice president of industry analysis at comScore
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Wayfair derives multiple benefits from Pinterest referrals
1,700-plus followers on Pinterest
Shoppers referred to Wayfair’s website by Pinterest were more than 10% more likely to make a purchase than visitors who arrived from other social networks, including Facebook and Twitter
Pinterest referrals spent 10% more than the average shopper on the site
Source: Mashable, April 2012.
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Victoria’s Secret has run several Pinterest contests, including “Victoria’s Secret Summer”
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Free People, a vintage apparel retailer, has more than 300,000 followers on Instagram, where it runs a contest called “What’s In Your FP Closet?”
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today:
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo-sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Email is the preferred vehicle for online consumers to receive holiday promotions
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Shopping cart abandonment rates climb during the holiday season
FINDING: After Labor Day, shopping cart abandonment rates rise
PROOF: In 2011, 72% of all potential ecommerce purchases were abandoned; the rate jumped to 85% in the weeks running up to Cyber Monday and peaked at 89.2% on November 23
PREDICTION: The shopping cart abandonment rate will reach 90% this year, on November 21, the day before Thanksgiving
RECOMMENDATION: Sending a sequence of gentle email reminders to abandoners that there are still items in their online shopping cart can result in a recovery rate of between 10% and 30%
Source: SeeWhy,
“As in previous years, many customers [during the holiday season] anticipated promotional offers and deferred purchases, causing the abandonment rate to shoot up.”
—Charles Nicholls, founder and chief strategy officer at SeeWhy
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Holiday shoppers will see more sophisticated triggered emails like this one from Crutchfield appealing to a wide range of preferences
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Google Shopping will debut this holiday season
Product Listing Ads
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Google Shopping will allow consumers to shop by many attributes
Filtering options
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today:
What is the outlook for online holiday sales?
How is the holiday season being extended?
What new trends will fuel sales growth?
Daily deals
Smartphone and tablet shoppers
Photo-sharing sites
Email and search
Key takeaways
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Online holiday sales will reach $54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011
Ecommerce sales for all of 2012 are on target to reach $224.2 billion, up 15.4% year over year
Consumers will do more shopping earlier and later in the holiday season to take advantage of retailers’ heavy promotions
Mobile shopping and online deal hunting will be major contributors to holiday ecommerce success
Photo-sharing sites will drive traffic to fashion retail sites
Key Takeaways
Twitter – #eMwebinar
Drive Conversions and Revenue
Built for commerce: Conversions,transactions and revenue
Highly personal, relevant emailand cross-channel marketing
Sophisticated made simple
Kevin Skurski | Director of Marketing Communications
Holiday Resource Center
A collection of tools and research,including white papers, guides and blog posts.
Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays
2012 Holiday Planning Month-by-MonthGuide
2012 Holiday Email Marketing Lookbook
bronto.com/holiday
Customer Lifecycle
Uncovering Missed Revenue Opportunities – Exploring the Customer Lifecycle
Examine each phase of the customer lifecycle
Outline consumer behavioralong the way
Identify revenue-generating programs
bronto.com/resources
Tips & Tricks
Expertise from the field
White papers
Customer success stories
Blog posts
bronto.com/resources
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Q&A Session
Online Holiday Shopping Forecast
and Trends
Sponsored by:
Brontobronto.com/resources
You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to
view the deck and webinar recording.
Jeffrey Grau
Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends
Adapting to a Showrooming World: How Retailers Are Earning Customer Loyalty
Worldwide B2C Ecommerce Forecast: Midyear 2012 Update
How Retailers Are Leveraging ‘Big Data’ to Personalize Ecommerce
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