Emerging consumer trends - challenges for food
safety
Professor Lynn FrewerFood Safety and Consumer Behaviour
University of Wageningen, The [email protected]
http://www.mcb.wur.nl/UK/Staff/Faculty/Frewer/
Consumers and food safety
Various consumer and societal trends can be identified.
These are not necessarily independent of one- another....
Consumer health
Affluent countries face a pandemic of obesity
• Healthy foods • Optimal taste• Functional foods and ingredients• Lifestyle-related illnesses increasing in emerging economies
Food shortages in many parts of the world, despite the “green revolution”
Demand on Agricultural Production Growing Much More Rapidly Than Population
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Population Increase Calorie Increase Feed DemandIncrease
1966 to PresentPresent to 2050
Source. Professor Bruce Babcock, Iowa State University
Rat
e of
in
crea
se
Emerging zoonotic risks
Increased demand for animal proteins Increased demand on intensive production
systems? Emergence of new zoonotic diseases? (cf. BSE) Unless effective early identification systems identified,
negative impact on consumer confidence in global governance
Food Safety – consumers demand safe foods
Consumers are not willing to pay more for
“safer” foods
Smart packaging
• Microbial contamination
• Pathogen detection
Concerns about emerging diseases
• Climate change
• Lengthening food chains
• Mycotoxins
• Emerging Zoonoses
Dioxin crisis in Belgium (1999)
January 1999 a storage tank of fat at the processing plant of Verkest, Belgian animal feed producer is contaminated with industrial oil containing dioxin
February 1999 animal producer Da Brabender notices nervous system problems in its mother hens and hatching failures in their eggs
March 1999 Da Brabender send a feed sample to a Dutch laboratory for analysis. The ministry of agriculture is alerted
April 1999 lab results positive. government takes discrete action to isolate the supply chain involving Verkest
May 1999 tests reveal high levels of dioxin throughout the supply chain
29 May 1999: the story hits the news
Belgian dioxin crisis 1999Exports: sensitive
Belgian beef and poultry exports (metric tons)
(Data source: UN, COMTRADE database)
Dioxin crisis
Buffalo, Rubbish, and Mozzarella
Mozzarella is made near Naples in Italy from buffalo milk. Rubbish collection in Naples problematic Burning rubbish releases dioxins Animals not tested for disease.
Italy recalls tainted mozzarella The Italian government has recalled from sale the
mozzarella cheese linked to dioxin contamination.
BBC, March 2008
Sustainability
• More efficient production• Reduced consumer wastage• Environmental protection
• The “biofuels” crisis• Implications for food availability• Less food in supply, less safe food will be included in the supply chain
EU set to scrap
biofuels target amid
fears of food crisis
Guardian Unlimited April 2008
“The other global crisis: rush to biofuels
is driving up price of food” Independent, 12 APRIL 2008
UN urges biofuel
investment halt
BBC, 2 May 2008
Biofuels: They Could
Lead To A Future Water
Crisis?
The Daily Reckoning Aug, 2007
Go easy on biofuels until more clarity: World Bank Bangladesh independent, May 2008 Crop switch worsens global
food price crisis Guardian, April 5th, 2008
Global Water Shortages
Water becomes scarce Implications for consumer behaviour? Hand / produce washing Drinking water less safe Implications for consumer health / food production and
preparation
Internationalisation of food culture
Tracking and tracing
Consumers want improved choice
• Introduction of allergenic ingredients (e.g. tree nut, shrimp)- Where are these ingredients in longer and more
complex food chains?• Production processes (GMOs, nanotechnology, organic
production)• Food quality (e.g. country of origin)
Globalization results in lengthening food chains
Focus group results: communication methods
Focus group results: communication methods
Consumer Rejection of new traceability methodsInformation is not directly available to
consumer (bar-coding, RFID)Unhygienic, loss of naturalness of product
(label, laser printing)• “you don’t want to eat that, it is unappetizing”; “unnatural”
Unwilling to pay for associated costs
Giraurd et al, in preparation
Traceability and food Safety (FOCUS GROUP RESULTS) Consumers prefer shorter food chains Determinants of product safety
Hygiene Storage conditions Product origin
Producers and retailers responsible for Safety throughout the food chain Information provision
Consumers were positive about product recalls should a contamination incident occur. Effective implementation of safety monitoring systems Producer acknowledgement of consumer concerns
Kher et al, in preparation
ΣCHAIN
Consumers and meat production
Some additional (segmented) consumer trends
Consumer demand for free range meat productionIncreased contamination (e.g. Salmonella on
pork in the UK)Avian influenza in free range poultry
Changing demographics
Changing demographicsE.g. Europe
• More people living in single person households implies increased demand for convenience (chilled foods
• Ageing population with increased vulnerability
Clusters of Consumers and self protective behaviour
– domestic food safety
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
Ra
sc
h S
co
re
I: Traditional family
II: Average Family (traditional)
III: Average Family
IV: Average Family
(modern)
V: Single Male
Results of hierarchical cluster analysis on Rasch
data
(Fischer, Frewer and Nauta, 2007, Risk
Analysis)
Low risk
High risk
Differences in expert and lay perceptions of effective risk management –A continuing
trend
Consumers & Experts: A Perceptual Divide
Consumers not willing to seek information
Adequate FRM and happy consumers
More acceptance of economic interests
Emphasise state and industry
Negative view - create public anxiety
Inherent in science
Poor quality of information
Continuing problems
Less acceptance of economic interests
Emphasise consumer protection
Positive view
Not acknowledged by all institutions
Krystallis et al, 2007, Health, Risk & Society
Consumers Experts
FRM Efforts
FRM Priorities
Responsibility
Media
Uncertainty
Consumer Awareness
Consumer attitudes to emerging technologies applied to food production and food safety
Do the potential technological solutions create more problems in terms of consumer acceptance?
e.g. ambivalent consumer attitudes to food irradiation in some regions of the world
Risk-Experiment: Prior AttitudesFour technologies selected based on
existing consumer attitude
Positive
Negative -2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Conve
ntion
al
Nanot
ech
Organ
icGM
Pri
or
Att
itu
de
(cen
tere
d 9
5% c
i)
Van Dijk et al, in preparation
Developing international consumer and stakeholder
confidence
• Risk governance• (Early) risk identification • Common research agenda • International risk communication as soon as a
hazard has been identified• Equitable stakeholder and consumer participation in
the process of risk analysis / risk governance
Conclusions
Consumer trends Safety (always a priority) Quality demands Changes in food preferences Enhanced traceability Sustainability versus food security Technology in food production? Targeted risk communication to vulnerable populations International risk governance
Thank you!
Any questions?
“Long –chain fatty omega -3 fatty acids found in fatty fish and fish oils do not have a clear effect on total mortality, combined vascular events, or cancer”
Hooper et al, British Medical Journal, March 2006
Implications for ingredient labelling and health claims
…………..and uncertain risks ….
“Although a rich source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that may confer multiple health benefits, some fish contain methyl mercury (MeHg), which may harm the developing fetus. U.S. government recommendations for women of childbearing age are to modify consumption of high-MeHg fish, while recommendations encourage fish consumption among the general population because of nutritional benefits”
Cohen et al, Am J Prev Med. 2005 Nov;29(4):325-34.
Communicating with consumers about variable risks ….
Integrated Risk-Benefit measures are being
introduced into food safety legislation
Life expectancy changes
Qalys - Quality adjusted life year “a year of life adjusted for its quality or its value”. A year in perfect health
is considered equal to 1.0 QALY. The value of a year in ill health would be discounted
Dalys - Disability Adjusted Life YearsThe sum of years of potential life lost due to prematuremortality and the years of productive life lost due to disability
An example of Dalys
. Positive Negative
Life expectancy
•Useful for comparing and reaching conclusions•Concrete
•Effect size too small. •Too much emphasis on health. •Not relevant.•Not relevant for younger people.•Not enough on it’s own
Qalys •Important and relevant information
•Terminology, negative measure is counterintuitive.•Complicated, difficult to understand•Not enough on it’s own.
DALY •Combination of life expectancy and quality of life is positive
•Complicated, difficult and confusing. •Too much time needed to understand. •Not useful.
Consumer views - three measures for describing the net health
impact of both risks and benefits