Emerging trends and exponential forcesBill Eggers, Executive Director, Deloitte Center for Government Insights
2 | Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
The S-Curve
Sources: The Big Shift by John Hagel, John Seely Brown and Lang Davison, Deloitte Center for the Edge, Carlota Perez, “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”, Intel,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FCC, CNet, Skype, Hartford Courier, Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, Clayton Christensen
Burst of technology innovation
Past Technological Revolutions
Time
Pe
rfo
rma
nce
Stabilization
Stabilization
Stabilization
2000sConnecting
2015Rapid Change
2020 and beyondEXPONENTIAL
Artificial Intelligence
Genomics
Connected Homes
Internet of Things
Crypto-Currencies
Robotics
3D Printing
Drones
Personalized Services
Oculus Rift
Electric and
Connected Cars
Mobile
Analytics
Social
Cloud
Sharing Economy
Content
Customer EngagementDisruptive Innovations
Digital
4 | Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Digital technologies: Progressing at an exponential rate
4
DECEPTIVE DISRUPTIVE DEMATERIALIZE DEMONETIZE DEMOCRATIZE
Taxi Fleets Book Stores Long Distance
Hotel ChainsClassifiedsResearch / Libraries
Source: Peter Diamandis, “6 D’s of Exponentials”
Dropping costs fuel the digitization cycle
AI: The Next Frontier
Computer algorithms
that ‘learn’ based on trial
and error, resulting in an
ever-improving ability to
assess inputs and derive
more accurate outputs
Cognitive systems mimic
– and ideally amplify –
human judgement and
(with robotics) human
actions
The AI Spring
“I was playing in front of a crowd
that wanted to see blood. It was an
away game for humanity…”
―Ken Jennings
AI: The new electricityFuture of work (and play…) will be powered by AI…
Types of cognitive technologies
Cognitive
technologies
Rules-based systems Machine advisors can help businesses comply with complex government rules
Machine TranslationImplications on
international relations, defense, intelligence and
domestic applications
Speech Recognition can help in dictations,
phone assistance
RoboticsExamples include disaster management robots, robot
assistance in home health care
Computer Vision
Applications include
identifying criminals from surveillance
footage
Machine Learning Can be used in large
government datasets to predict future events
Natural language processing
Used to extract terms and conditions from
contracts
Google Assistant can assist you in every task
All Seeing AI
Machine intelligence is surpassing human
capabilities across different fields
Now…
Voice recognition Expression recognitionImage recognition
Text translation Speech translation
And soon…
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Facial expressions predicted poor driving behavior and identified accidents two seconds before they occurred with an average
accuracy of 76%
An online shopping study demonstrated that the face can
predict buyer intent with an average accuracy of 73%
Combined with cutting edge analytics, it is increasingly
possible to understand and predict future behavior
14 Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Neuro imaging with AIThe Gallant Lab at Berkeley has pioneered the
mapping of key words or images to parts of the
brain.
Like a carbon copy, researchers today can replicate the
images people are viewing based on brain activity
alone.
15 Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
AI can detect deception in the courtroom
The team from the University of Maryland and Dartmouth College trained the AI to recognize micro-expressions known to indicate that someone is lying
Results showed that DARE managed to spot 92 per cent of the micro-expressions, which the researchers describe as a 'good performance'
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
These technologies can help us understand team &
individual performance
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
How can I understand more about my counterpart?
?Sexual Orientation
Political views
Likes/dislikesTravel history
Speech analysis
AI augmented face analysis
Text analytics
Social media profiling
Religious views
Demographics
Education
Family
Employment history
Sentiment analysis Public
database mining
Shopping habits
Household income
Social influence
Health
With AI you can know someone without ever meeting them
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
The Future of Work
How can we get 5X, 10X the output with the same resources?
What big shifts are
required?
Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
WORK WORKER WORKPLACE
Every aspect of work will be redesigned What
work gets done?
Whocan do the work?
Whereis the work done?
22 Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Autonomous: Mind to Machine
Dull Dangerous “Dear” (high-value)
23 Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Sources: Deloitte analysis of OPM Fedscope data and Department of Labor O*Net Generalized Work Activities.
*2011 figure, latest available: Justin Falk et al, ‘Comparing the Compensation of Federal and Private Sector Employees.’
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
Docum
enting/R
ecord
ing I
nfo
rmation
Handling a
nd M
ovin
g O
bje
cts
Assis
ting a
nd C
aring for
Oth
ers
Gett
ing I
nfo
rmation
Com
munic
ating w
ith S
uperv
isors
, Peers
,…
Guid
ing,
Dir
ecting,
and M
otivating…
Monitoring a
nd C
ontr
ollin
g R
esourc
es
Monitor
Pro
cesses,
Mate
rials
, or…
Perf
orm
ing G
enera
l Physic
al Activitie
s
Inspecting E
quip
ment,
Str
uctu
res,
or…
Pro
vid
e C
onsultation a
nd A
dvic
e t
o O
thers
Perf
orm
ing A
dm
inis
trative A
ctivitie
s
Evalu
ating I
nfo
rmation t
o D
ete
rmin
e…
Analy
zin
g D
ata
or
Info
rmation
Contr
ollin
g M
achin
es a
nd P
rocesses
Thin
kin
g C
reatively
Pro
cessin
g I
nfo
rmation
Com
munic
ating w
ith P
ers
ons O
uts
ide…
Judgin
g t
he Q
ualities o
f Thin
gs,…
Repairin
g a
nd M
ain
tain
ing M
echanic
al…
Inte
rpre
ting t
he M
eanin
g o
f In
form
ation…
Makin
g D
ecis
ions a
nd S
olv
ing P
roble
ms
Sta
ffin
g O
rganiz
ational U
nits
Inte
racting W
ith C
om
pute
rs
Tra
inin
g a
nd T
eachin
g O
thers
Estim
ating t
he Q
uantifiable
…
Scheduling W
ork
and A
ctivitie
s
Perf
orm
ing f
or
or
Work
ing D
irectly w
ith…
Resolv
ing C
onflic
ts a
nd N
egotiating w
ith…
Org
aniz
ing,
Pla
nnin
g,
and P
rioritizin
g…
Develo
pin
g O
bje
ctives a
nd S
trate
gie
s
Updating a
nd U
sin
g R
ele
vant
Know
ledge
Opera
ting V
ehic
les,
Mechaniz
ed…
Sellin
g o
r In
fluencin
g O
thers
Identify
ing O
bje
cts
, Actions,
and E
vents
Esta
blishin
g a
nd M
ain
tain
ing…
Coachin
g a
nd D
evelo
pin
g O
thers
Pers
on H
ours
/ Y
ear
(Millions)
A Year in the Life of the Federal Workforce
How does the federal govt. workforce spend its time?
48%
25%
93%
42% 36%
28%
27%
5%
40%61%
24%
48%
2%18%
3%
High AutomationPotential
Medium AutomationPotential
Low AutomationPotential
Automation potential of the five most labor-Intensive federal tasks (Annual hours spent in million)
Four out of five most
labor-intensive activities
have 50% or more
medium / high
automation potential
Four out of five most labor-intensive tasks are highly
amenable to automation…
Documenting /recording information
Handling and
moving objects
Assisting and
caring for others
Getting information
Communicating with colleagues
Deloitte analysis of OPM Fedscope and DOL O*NET data
Potential savings for the federal government from AI
Source: Deloitte Research
1.1 billion hours
$ 9.6 billion
$37.7 billion
266 million hours
High Investment(Tasks speed up by 200 %)
Two scenarios Potential Savings
Hours Freed
Low Investment(Tasks speed up by 20 %)
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Benefits of adding
cognitive
technologies to the
work flow…
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The anticipatory enterprise
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Human vs machine prediction and the HIPPO problem
The result: “Humanity barely bests [a] chimp throwing darts at the
possible outcomes.”
-Philip Tetlock
William Grove, a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota, went through 50 years of data comparing “head-to-head” test approaches completed by humans and machines, and found
people were only superior 6% of the time
Between 1987 and 2003, Tetlock asked 284 people who "commented or
offered advice on political and economic trends" professionally to make
a series of predictive judgments about the world: 82,361, in total.
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Removing cognitive bias
Broward County, Florida school district found that moving from teacher nomination to
nonverbal testing identified 80% more black and 130% more Hispanic students as gifted.
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Augmented: Shifting from Human to Centaur
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IBM Watson for Oncology synthesizes data from over
200 textbooks, over 290 medical journals, and 12
million pages of text to shed light on treatment
methods that no single human could find on their own
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Anticipatory shipping model by
33 Copyright © 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
Text
The AI advisor can play out security outcomes under various
scenarios
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Algorithmic black box: The problem
Governments increasingly rely on data-driven insights powered by algorithms.
However, bias can arise as a result of
vulnerabilities in the-
Input data
Algorithm design
Output data
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Bioenhancement
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Forms of enhancement
Put onBake in
Put in
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Neuroproductivity
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CRISPR Super Plants, Super Animals
Gene editing of
mosquito parasites to
eliminate Malaria
Costs of producing
plants and animals will
fall
Genetic modification
to produce more
muscular pigsPlants resistant to pests
and herbicides- better
nutritional value
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To come: Designer babies with CRISPR
Sprinter
High IQ
Taller
Perfect vision
Low risk of Alzheimer’s, breast cancer and strokes
Perfect pitch
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“People are very open minded about new things.
As long as they are exactly like the old ones.”
- Charles Kettering
Just remember…