Energy,ElectricityandNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2030
R E F E R E N C E D ATA S E R I E S No. 1 July 2005
BLANK
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
ENERGY, ELECTRICITYAND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES
FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
July 2005 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2005
ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
IAEA, VIENNA, 2005IAEA-RDS-1/25
ISBN 92–0–108705–5ISSN 1011–2642
Printed by the IAEA in AustriaJuly 2005
CONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2004) . . . . . . . . 15
Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21
Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table 5. Estimates of total energy consumption(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 4. Energy consumption estimates. . . . . . . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy consumption (EJ) by type
of fuel in 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy consumption by fuel type
in 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy
consumption during the period1970–2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of energy consumptionin 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 8. Energy consumption (EJ) for electricitygeneration by type of fuel in 2004 . . . . . . . 36
Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region. . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity
consumption per capita. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Figure 8. Per capita energy consumption . . . . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Per capita electricity consumption . . . . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the
period 1994–2004 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the
period 1994–2004 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period2004–2030 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5
INTRODUCTION
Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication –currently in its twenty-fifth edition – containing estimates ofenergy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year2030.
Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actualstatistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power ReactorInformation System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for2004, however, are estimated, since the latest availableinformation from the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations is for 2002. Population dataoriginate from the “World Population Prospects” (2003Revision), published by the Population Division of the UNDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2004values are estimates.
The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclearpower up to the year 2030 is presented as low and highestimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewedas very general growth trends whose validity must con-stantly be subjected to critical review.
The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbersover the last years by international, national and privateorganizations are based on a multiplicity of differentassumptions and different aggregating procedures,which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.The basic differences refer to such fundamental input dataas:
— World and regional scenarios of economic develop-ment;
— Correlation of economic growth and energy con-sumption;
— Assumptions on physical, economic and politicalconstraints applying to energy production and con-sumption;
— Future prices of different energy sources.
6
The projections presented in this booklet are based ona compromise among:
— National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study;
— Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators;
— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear powergrowth continuously carried out by the IAEA in thewake of recent global and regional projections madeby other international organizations.
The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented inTable 3 are derived from a country by country bottom-upapproach. They are established by a group of experts par-ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on NuclearCapacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclearpower projects and programmes in Member States.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but notextreme underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.
In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclearpower development are assumed to prevail in most coun-tries during the coming three decades:
— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates inOECD countries;
— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policydecisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of itscompetitive costs and potential contribution to reducingenvironmental impacts from electricity generation;
— Institutional and financing issues preventing theimplementation of previously planned nuclear pro-grammes, in particular in countries in transition and indeveloping countries;
7
— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technologytransfer and nuclear project funding in developingcountries.
The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclearpower development that could result in particular from amore comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating eco-nomic, social, health and environmental aspects. They arebased upon a review of national nuclear power pro-grammes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures wouldbe taken to facilitate the implementation of these pro-grammes, such as strengthening of international co-operation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.These estimates also take into account the global concernover climate change caused by the increasing concentra-tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the sign-ing of the recent Kyoto Protocol.
Beginning with the 25th edition of this publication, thedata on electrical energy are converted to joules differently than in the previous issues. The followingchanges were introduced to represent more accuratelythe physical energy supply in countries and to align withthe United Nations Secretariat’s and other internationalorganizations treatment of electricity: data on electricityproduced by nuclear power plants is converted to joulesbased on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant,i.e. 33 per cent; data on electricity generated by geo-thermal heat is converted to joules based on the averageefficiency of a geothermal power plant, i.e. 10 per cent.The conversion to joules of electricity generated byhydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such aswind, tide, and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming a100 per cent efficiency).
The total energy consumption has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers and domes-tic stocks.
8
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyconsumed for the generation of electricity. Owing to differ-ences in conversion efficiencies, the percentage valuesare different from the shares of electricity generation pre-sented in Tables 1 and 5.
Energy Units
1 MW(e) = 106 watts1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kW·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ
North AmericaCanada* United States of America*
Latin AmericaAnguilla Haiti*Antigua and Barbuda Honduras*Argentina* Jamaica*Aruba MartiniqueBahamas Mexico*Barbados MontserratBelize Netherlands AntillesBermuda Nicaragua*Bolivia* Panama*Brazil* Paraguay*Cayman Islands Peru*Chile* Puerto RicoColombia* S.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsCosta Rica* Saint Kitts and NevisCuba* Saint LuciaDominica Saint Pierre and MiquelonDominican Republic* Saint Vincent & the GrenadinesEcuador* SurinameEl Salvador* Trinidad and TobagoGrenada Turks and Caicos IslandsGuadeloupe Uruguay*Guatemala* Venezuela*Guyana
Western EuropeAndorra Liechtenstein*Austria* Luxembourg*Belgium* Malta*Cyprus* Monaco*Denmark* Netherlands*Finland* Norway*France* Portugal*Germany* San MarinoGibraltar Spain*Greece* Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsGreenland Sweden*Holy See* Switzerland*Iceland* Turkey*Ireland* United Kingdom*Italy*
GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS
The countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below
(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)
9
AfricaAlgeria* MalawiAngola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundi Morocco*Cameroon* MozambiqueCape Verde Namibia*Central African Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongo RwandaCôte d'Ivoire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*
Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Poland*Azerbaijan* Republic of Moldova*Belarus* Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina* Russian Federation*Bulgaria* Serbia and Montenegro*Croatia* Slovakia*Czech Republic* Slovenia*Estonia* Tajikistan*Georgia* The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary* TurkmenistanKazakhstan* Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan* Uzbekistan*Latvia*
10
11
Middle East and South AsiaAfghanistan* Kuwait*Bahrain Lebanon*Bangladesh* NepalBhutan OmanBritish Indian Ocean Territory Pakistan*Cocos (Keeling) Islands Qatar*French Southern Territories Saudi Arabia*Heard Island&McDonald Islands Sri Lanka*India* Syrian Arab Republic*Iran, Islamic Republic of* T.T.U.T.J of T. Palestinian A.Iraq* United Arab Emirates*Israel* Yemen*Jordan*
South East Asia and the PacificAustralia* Northern Mariana IslandsBrunei Darussalam PalauCook Islands Papua New GuineaFiji Pitcairn IslandsIndonesia* SamoaKiribati Singapore*Malaysia* Solomon IslandsMaldives Thailand*Marshall Islands* Timor LesteMicronesia (Fed. States of) TokelauMyanmar* TuvaluNew Zealand* US Minor Outlying IslandsNiue VanuatuNorfolk Islands Wallis and Futuna Islands
Far EastCambodia Macau, ChinaChina* Mongolia*Dem. P.R. of Korea Philippines*Japan* Taiwan, ChinaKorea, Republic of* Vietnam*Lao P.D.R.
TABL
E 1.
NUC
LEAR
PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
THE
WO
RLD
(end
of 2
004)
Perc
ent o
fTo
tal E
lect
ricity
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Can
ada
17
12
113
85.3
15.0
Uni
ted
Stat
es o
f Am
eric
a10
4
99
210
788.
6
19
.9
Lat
in A
mer
ica
Arge
ntin
a2
935
1
69
2
7.
3
8.
2
Br
azil
2
19
01
11
.5
3.
0
M
exic
o2
1310
10.6
5.2
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Belg
ium
7
58
01
44
.9
55
.1
Fi
nlan
d4
2656
21.8
26.6
Fran
ce59
6336
3
42
6.8
78.1
Ger
man
y18
2067
9
15
8.4
32.1
Net
herla
nds
1
44
9
3.
6
3.
8
Sp
ain
9
75
85
60
.9
22
.9
Sw
eden
11
94
69
75
.0
51
.8
Sw
itzer
land
5
32
20
25
.4
40
.0
U
nite
d Ki
ngdo
m23
1185
2
73
.7
19
.4
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Arm
enia
1
37
6
2.
2
38
.8
Bu
lgar
ia4
2722
15.6
41.6
Cze
ch R
epub
lic6
3548
26.3
31.2
Hun
gary
4
17
55
11
.2
33
.8
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ryIn
Ope
ratio
nUn
der C
onst
ruct
ion
Elec
trici
ty S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
arPo
wer
Rea
ctor
s in
200
4
Num
ber o
f Uni
tsTo
tal M
W(e
)Nu
mbe
r of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW·h
12
TABL
E 1.
NUC
LEAR
PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
THE
WO
RLD
(end
of 2
004)
— c
ontin
ued
Perc
ent o
fTo
tal E
lect
ricity
Lith
uani
a (b
)2
2370
13.9
72.1
Rom
ania
1
65
5
1
655
5.1
10.1
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
31
21
743
4
37
75
13
3.0
15.6
Slov
akia
6
24
42
15
.6
55
.2
Sl
oven
ia1
656
5.2
38.8
Ukr
aine
15
13
107
2
19
00
81
.8
51
.1
Afri
ca
So
uth
Afric
a2
1800
14.3
6.6
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
Indi
a14
2550
9
40
92
15
.0
2.
8
Ira
n, Is
lam
ic R
epub
lic o
f1
915
Paki
stan
2
42
5
1.
9
2.
4
Far
Eas
t
C
hina
9
66
02
2
2000
47.8
2.2
Japa
n54
4546
8
3
3237
273.
8
29
.3
Ko
rea,
Rep
ublic
of
19
15
850
1
96
0
12
4.0
37.9
Wor
ld T
otal
(a)
441
3674
96
26
2082
6
26
18.6
16.0
Not
es:
(a) I
nclu
ding
the
follo
win
g da
ta in
Tai
wan
, Chi
na:
— 6
uni
ts in
ope
ratio
n w
ith to
tal c
apac
ity o
f 488
4 M
W(e
); 2
units
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
with
tota
l cap
acity
of 2
600
MW
(e);
— 3
7.9
TW.h
of n
ucle
ar e
lect
ricity
gen
erat
ion,
repr
esen
ting
20.9
% o
f the
tota
l ele
ctric
ity g
ener
ated
. (b
) one
uni
t was
shu
t dow
n on
31
Dece
mbe
r 200
4.
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ryIn
Ope
ratio
nUn
der C
onst
ruct
ion
Elec
trici
ty S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
arPo
wer
Rea
ctor
s in
200
4
Num
ber o
f Uni
tsTo
tal M
W(e
)Nu
mbe
r of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW·h
13
Note: The nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 20.9%.
FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2004
72.1
55.1
51.8
51.1
40.0
38.8
37.9
33.8
32.1
31.2
29.3
26.6
22.9
19.9
19.4
15.6
15.0
10.1
8.2
6.6
5.2
3.8
3.0
2.8
2.4
2.2
78.1
38.8
41.6
55.2
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
FRANCE
LITHUANIA
SLOVAKIA
BELGIUM
SWEDEN
UKRAINE
BULGARIA
SWITZERLAND
SLOVENIA
ARMENIA
KOREA R.
HUNGARY
GERMANY
CZECH R.
JAPAN
FINLAND
SPAIN
USA
UK
RUSSIA
CANADA
ROMANIA
ARGENTINA
SOUTH AFRICA
MEXICO
NETHERLANDS
BRAZIL
INDIA
PAKISTAN
CHINA
Nuclear Share (%)
14
TABL
E 2.
NUM
BER
OF
COUN
TRIE
S W
ITH
NUCL
EAR
POW
ER R
EACT
ORS
IN O
PERA
TIO
N O
R UN
DER
CONS
TRUC
TIO
N (e
nd o
f 200
4)
In O
pera
tion
Unde
r Con
stru
ctio
n (1
)To
tal (
2)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
2
2
2
Lat
in A
mer
ica
45
3
1
3
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
29
9
9
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
27
10
3
10
Afri
ca57
1
1
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
25
2
2
3
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic27
Far
Eas
t11
4
4
4
Wor
ld T
otal
223
31
10
32
Not
es:
(1) M
ay in
clud
e co
untri
es h
avin
g re
acto
rs a
lread
y in
ope
ratio
n. (2
) Tot
al n
umbe
r of c
ount
ries
in e
ach
grou
p th
at h
ave
nucl
ear p
ower
reac
tors
in o
pera
tion,
or u
nder
con
stru
ctio
n.
Coun
tries
with
Nuc
lear
Pow
er R
eact
ors
Num
ber o
f Cou
ntrie
s in
Gro
upCo
untry
Gro
up
15
BLANK
TABL
E 3.
EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
AND
NUCL
EAR
ELEC
TRIC
AL G
ENER
ATIN
G C
APAC
ITY
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
1055
111.
3
10.6
1099
116
11
11
94
11
8
10
1318
115
8.7
11
55
11
7
10
1279
128
10
14
22
14
5
10
264
4.
1
1.6
30
3
4.1
1.
4
383
6.
1
1.6
48
3
5.8
1.
2
350
4.
1
1.2
54
3
6.1
1.
1
828
15
1.8
724
12
5.1
17
.3
76
2
119
16
84
2
97
11
940
79
8.5
81
6
125
15
95
1
130
14
11
18
14
5
13
466
49
.4
10
.6
46
9
48
10
505
64
13
54
3
66
12
496
51
10
60
5
78
13
736
97
13
105
1.
8
1.7
11
5
1.8
1.
6
143
2.
1
1.5
18
1
2.1
1.
2
135
1.
8
1.3
20
7
4.1
2.
0
316
9.
3
3.0
284
3.
0
1.0
33
1
9
2.
8
430
15
3.6
55
6
18
3.
2
370
10
2.8
55
5
27
4.
9
811
43
5.3
143
16
9
213
0.
9
0.4
26
4
0.9
0.
3
184
27
0
0.9
0.
3
391
3.
0
0.8
651
72
.8
11
.2
68
5
82
12
804
11
3
14
937
13
1
14
840
85
10
11
67
14
2
12
1589
183
11
Low
Est
imat
e36
93
36
7.5
10
.0
39
34
38
0
10
4515
416
9.2
52
23
41
8
8.
0
Hig
h Es
timat
e43
47
39
5
9.
1
5576
516
9.3
72
10
64
0
8.
9
Note
:(a
) Nuc
lear
cap
acity
est
imat
es ta
ke in
to a
ccou
nt th
e sc
hedu
led
deco
mm
issi
onin
g of
the
olde
r uni
ts a
t the
end
of t
heir
lifet
ime.
Coun
try G
roup
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Nucl
ear
2004
2010
(a)
2020
(a)
2030
(a)
Tota
l Ele
ct.
GW
(e)
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
East
ern
Euro
pe
Wor
ld T
otal
Afric
a
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
Far E
ast
17
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2004
2010
2020
2030
GW
(e)
GENERATING CAPACITY
18
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2004
2010
2020
2030
Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
19
BLANK
TABL
E 4.
EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
AND
CONT
RIBU
TIO
N BY
NUC
LEAR
PO
WER
(*)
TW·h
%TW
·h%
TW·h
%TW
·h%
4521
873.
8
19
.3
47
32
92
6
20
5402
953
18
60
44
92
8
15
5079
931
18
62
17
10
31
17
7559
1168
15
1069
29.4
2.8
1151
31
2.
7
1564
46
2.
9
2138
44
2.
1
1366
31
2.
2
2166
46
2.
1
3545
114
3.2
2934
890.
5
30
.3
31
47
87
7
28
3432
728
21
37
20
61
3
16
3377
923
27
43
47
98
1
23
5621
1119
20
1692
310.
1
18
.3
17
84
31
5
18
2061
429
21
23
41
46
4
20
1941
338
17
26
61
52
5
20
3835
681
18
498
14.3
2.9
569
14
2.
5
738
17
2.
4
929
18
1.
9
637
14
2.
3
1008
34
3.
3
1582
77
4.
9
1201
17.0
1.4
1348
56
4.
2
1792
94
5.
3
2316
115
5.0
15
97
62
3.9
25
32
16
7
6.
6
3864
279
7.2
639
763
973
5.5
0.
6
1211
5.8
0.
5
805
1148
5.5
0.
5
1629
19
1.
2
3785
483.
5
12
.8
40
37
55
8
14
4934
783
16
59
68
92
8
16
4968
583
12
75
92
98
0
13
1132
5
12
96
11
Low
Est
imat
e16
337
2618
.6
16
.0
17
531
2776
16
20
894
3055
15
24
667
3115
13
H
igh
Estim
ate
1976
9
28
81
15
2767
1
37
69
14
3896
0
47
53
12
(*) T
he n
ucle
ar g
ener
atio
n da
ta p
rese
nted
in th
is ta
ble
and
the
nucl
ear c
apac
ity d
ata
pres
ente
d in
Tab
le 3
can
not b
e us
ed to
cal
cula
te a
vera
ge a
nnua
l cap
acity
fact
ors
for n
ucle
ar p
lant
s,
as
Tabl
e 3
pres
ents
yea
r-end
cap
acity
and
not
the
effe
ctiv
e ca
paci
ty a
vera
ge o
ver t
he y
ear.
Wor
ld T
otal
Afric
a
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic
Far E
ast
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
East
ern
Euro
pe
Nucl
ear
2004
2010
2020
2030
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Nucl
ear
Coun
try G
roup
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW·h
21
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2004
2010
2020
2030
Perc
enta
ge (%
)
BY NUCLEAR POWER
22
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2004
2010
2020
2030
Nuclear Low Estimate
Nuclear High Estimate
23
BLANK
TAB
LE 5
. EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
ENER
GY
CO
NSU
MPT
ION
(EJ)
, PER
CEN
TAG
E U
SED
FO
R E
LEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
, AN
D P
ERC
ENTA
GE
S
UPP
LIED
BY
NU
CLE
AR
EN
ERG
Y (*
)
113.
9
36
.2
8.
4
11
9
36
8.5
12
7
39
8.2
13
6
40
7.4
12
7
36
8.0
14
5
39
7.7
16
6
41
7.7
28.4
22.6
1.1
33
21
1.0
42
22
1.
2
53
24
0.9
36
23
0.
9
55
24
0.9
81
26
1.
5
69.9
36.4
13.9
73
37
13
78
37
10
82
37
8.1
76
38
13
85
43
13
96
49
13
52.7
38.0
6.4
56
38
6.2
63
38
7.
4
71
39
7.1
60
38
6.
1
77
41
7.5
95
48
7.
8
22.3
20.0
0.7
25
21
0.6
30
22
0.
6
36
23
0.5
27
21
0.
6
37
24
1.0
49
29
1.
7
46.3
30.0
0.4
54
29
1.1
69
30
1.
5
87
31
1.4
60
31
1.
1
88
33
2.1
12
4
36
2.5
21.5
30.9
25
32
30
33
0.2
37
34
0.
2
28
30
40
30
0.2
54
31
0.
4
95.3
35.7
5.5
107
34
5.
7
130
34
6.
6
156
35
6.
5
120
37
5.
3
171
40
6.
3
236
43
6.
0
Low
Est
imat
e45
0.5
33.8
6.3
491
33
6.
2
570
34
5.
8
660
34
5.
2
Hig
h E
stim
ate
535
34
5.
9
697
37
5.
9
901
40
5.
8
Not
e: (*
) Tot
al e
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n is
est
imat
ed a
s pr
imar
y en
ergy
requ
irmen
ts =
pro
duct
ion
of p
rimar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tra
de (I
mpo
rt –
Exp
ort)
min
us in
tern
atio
nal b
unke
rs a
nd s
tock
cha
nges
.
Wor
ld T
otal
Afri
ca
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
Far E
ast
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
% U
sed
for
Ele
ct. G
en.
% S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
ar
2004
2010
2020
2030
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
nTo
tal E
nerg
yC
onsu
mpt
ion
% S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
ar%
Use
d fo
rE
lect
. Gen
.%
Sup
plie
dby
Nuc
lear
Cou
ntry
Gro
up%
Use
d fo
rE
lect
. Gen
.%
Sup
plie
dby
Nuc
lear
% U
sed
for
Ele
ct. G
en.
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
nTo
tal E
nerg
yC
onsu
mpt
ion
25
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 4. ENERGY CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2004
2010
2020
2030
EJ
26
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2004
2010
2020
2030
Total - High EstimateTotal - Low EstimateNuclear - High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
27
BLANK
TABL
E 6.
TO
TAL
ENER
GY
CONS
UMPT
ION
(EJ)
BY
TYPE
OF
FUEL
IN 2
004
(*)Co
untry
Gro
upSo
lids
(a)
Liqu
ids
Gas
esBi
omas
s (b
)Hy
dro
Nucl
ear
Rene
wab
les
(c)
Tota
l
Nor
th A
mer
ica24
.63
45.0
6
28
.30
3.69
2.19
9.53
0.54
113.
95
Lat
in A
mer
ica1.
10
13
.66
6.85
3.98
2.18
0.32
0.32
28.4
1
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
10.4
4
26
.09
18.3
1
2.
80
1.
97
9.
71
0.
58
69
.92
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
11.5
4
10
.71
24.4
1
1.
93
0.
89
3.
38
-0
.12
52.7
4
Afri
ca6.
18
5.
54
2.
68
7.
36
0.
34
0.
16
0.
01
22
.27
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia11
.00
18.6
8
10
.61
5.49
0.37
0.19
0.01
46.3
4
Sou
th E
ast A
sia a
nd th
e Pa
cific
4.28
9.66
4.90
2.16
0.28
0.24
21.5
2
Far
Eas
t48
.31
28.6
9
7.
71
3.
00
1.
78
5.
27
0.
58
95
.35
Wor
ld T
otal
117.
48
15
8.10
103.
79
30
.41
10.0
0
28
.57
2.16
450.
50
Not
es:
(*) T
otal
ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
= pr
oduc
tion
of p
rimar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tra
de (I
mpo
rt –
Expo
rt) m
inus
inte
rnat
iona
l bun
kers
and
sto
ck c
hang
es.
(a) S
olid
s do
not
incl
ude
com
mer
cial
woo
d. (b
) The
col
umn
head
ed 'B
iom
ass'
incl
udes
com
mer
cial
woo
d, c
ombu
stib
le re
new
able
s, w
aste
and
oth
er b
iom
ass
prod
ucts
. (c
) The
col
umn
head
ed 'R
enew
able
s' in
clud
es g
eoth
erm
al, w
ind,
sol
ar, t
ide
ener
gy a
nd n
et e
lect
ricity
trad
e.
29
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL TYPE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120EJ
IN 2004
30
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
Liquids Solids Gases Biomass
Hydro Nuclear Renewables
31
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY CON-
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985Year
EJ
SUMPTION DURING THE PERIOD 1970—2004
32
1990 1995 2000
Liquids Solids Gases
Biomass Hydro Nuclear
33
BLANK
TABL
E 7.
FUE
L SH
ARES
(%) O
F EN
ERG
Y CO
NSUM
PTIO
N IN
200
4 (*)
Coun
try G
roup
Solid
s (a
)Li
quid
sG
ases
Biom
ass
(b)
Hydr
oNu
clea
rRe
new
able
s (c
)To
tal
Nor
th A
mer
ica21
.62
39.5
4
24
.84
3.24
1.92
8.37
0.48
100.
00
Lat
in A
mer
ica3.
89
48
.07
24.1
2
14
.00
7.68
1.13
1.11
100.
00
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
14.9
3
37
.32
26.2
0
4.
01
2.
82
13
.89
0.83
100.
00
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
21.8
8
20
.31
46.2
9
3.
65
1.
68
6.
41
-0
.23
100.
00
Afri
ca27
.74
24.8
9
12
.05
33.0
3
1.
53
0.
70
0.
06
10
0.00
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia23
.73
40.3
1
22
.89
11.8
5
0.
79
0.
40
0.
03
10
0.00
Sou
th E
ast A
sia a
nd th
e Pa
cific
19.9
0
44
.90
22.7
5
10
.04
1.30
1.11
100.
00
Far
Eas
t50
.67
30.0
9
8.
09
3.
15
1.
86
5.
53
0.
61
10
0.00
Wor
ld T
otal
26.0
8
35
.09
23.0
4
6.
75
2.
22
6.
34
0.
48
10
0.00
Not
es:
(*) T
otal
ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
= pr
oduc
tion
of p
rimar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tra
de (I
mpo
rt –
Expo
rt) m
inus
inte
rnat
iona
l bun
kers
and
sto
ck c
hang
es.
(a) S
olid
s do
not
incl
ude
com
mer
cial
woo
d. (b
) The
col
umn
head
ed 'B
iom
ass'
incl
udes
com
mer
cial
woo
d, c
ombu
stib
le re
new
able
s, w
aste
and
oth
er b
iom
ass
prod
ucts
. (c
) The
col
umn
head
ed 'R
enew
able
s' in
clud
es g
eoth
erm
al, w
ind,
sol
ar, t
ide
ener
gy a
nd n
et e
lect
ricity
trad
e.
35
TABL
E 8.
ENE
RGY
CONS
UMPT
ION
(EJ)
FO
R EL
ECTR
ICIT
Y G
ENER
ATIO
N BY
TYP
E O
F FU
EL IN
200
4Co
untry
Gro
upTh
erm
al (a
)Hy
dro
Nucl
ear
Rene
wab
les
(b)
Tota
l
Nor
th A
mer
ica
29.4
8
2.
19
9.
53
0.
54
41
.75
Lat
in A
mer
ica
4.05
2.18
0.32
0.32
6.88
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
14.6
2
1.
97
9.
71
0.
41
26
.72
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
16.4
2
0.
89
3.
38
0.
01
20
.70
Afri
ca4.
28
0.
34
0.
16
0.
02
4.
79
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
14.9
9
0.
37
0.
19
0.
01
15
.56
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic6.
28
0.
28
0.
23
6.
78
Far
Eas
t25
.88
1.78
5.27
0.58
33.5
1
Wor
ld T
otal
116.
00
10
.00
28.5
7
2.
12
15
6.68
Not
es:
(a) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'The
rmal
' is
the
tota
l for
sol
ids,
liqu
ids,
gas
es, b
iom
ass
and
was
te.
(b) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, win
d, s
olar
and
tide
ene
rgy.
36
TABL
E 9.
PER
CENT
AGE
CONT
RIBU
TIO
N O
F EA
CH F
UEL
TYPE
TO
ELE
CTRI
CITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
IN 2
004
Coun
try G
roup
Ther
mal
(a)
Hydr
oNu
clea
rRe
new
able
s (b
)To
tal
Nor
th A
mer
ica
66.6
0
13
.46
19.3
3
0.
61
10
0.00
Lat
in A
mer
ica
39.4
6
56
.71
2.76
1.08
100.
00
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
48.7
6
18
.70
30.3
5
2.
19
10
0.00
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
67.0
7
14
.59
18.3
2
0.
02
10
0.00
Afri
ca78
.03
18.9
2
2.
87
0.
18
10
0.00
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
89.8
1
8.
52
1.
41
0.
25
10
0.00
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic86
.72
12.2
0
1.
08
10
0.00
Far
Eas
t73
.78
13.0
0
12
.78
0.44
100.
00
Wor
ld T
otal
66.1
8
17
.00
16.0
3
0.
80
10
0.00
Not
es:
(a) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'The
rmal
' is
the
tota
l for
sol
ids,
liqu
ids,
gas
es, b
iom
ass
and
was
te.
(b) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, win
d, s
olar
and
tide
ene
rgy.
37
BLANK
TABL
E 10
. EST
IMAT
ES O
F PO
PULA
TIO
N G
ROW
TH B
Y RE
GIO
N (*)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
329
1.05
348
0.95
379
0.87
407
0.71
Latin
Am
eric
a55
1
1.
53
59
5
1.
28
65
9
1.
04
71
1
0.
76
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
466
0.46
475
0.30
484
0.19
488
0.09
East
ern
Euro
pe40
7
-0
.16
402
-0.2
0
39
3
-0
.22
380
-0.3
5
Afric
a86
9
2.
33
98
4
2.
09
11
88
1.
90
13
98
1.
64
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1646
1.90
1816
1.66
2091
1.42
2325
1.07
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic40
0
1.
45
42
8
1.
14
46
9
0.
91
50
0
0.
64
Far E
ast
1706
0.89
1778
0.69
1872
0.52
1914
0.22
Wor
ld T
otal
6375
1.32
6827
1.15
7535
0.99
8123
0.75
(*) P
roje
ctio
n fig
ures
are
the
arith
met
ic a
vera
ge b
etw
een
low
and
hig
h es
timat
es.
Coun
try G
roup
Milli
on In
habi
tant
sM
illion
Inha
bita
nts
Milli
on In
habi
tant
sG
row
th R
ate
(%/a
) 19
91 —
200
4G
row
th R
ate
(%/a
) 20
04 —
201
0G
row
th R
ate
(%/a
) 20
10 —
202
0G
row
th R
ate
(%/a
) 20
20 —
203
0M
illion
Inha
bita
nts
2004
2010
2020
2030
39
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2004
2010
2020
2030
Milli
ons
of In
habi
tant
s
40
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2004
2010
2020
2030
41
BLANK
TAB
LE 1
1. E
STIM
ATES
OF
TOTA
L EN
ERG
Y A
ND
ELE
CTR
ICIT
Y C
ON
SUM
PTIO
N P
ER C
API
TA
Nor
th A
mer
ica
347
13.8
341
—36
4 13
.6
—14
.6
335
—38
3 13
.6
—14
.6
335
—40
7 14
.8
—18
.6
Latin
Am
eric
a52
1.9
56
—61
1.
9 —
2.3
64
—83
1.
9 —
2.3
75
—11
5 3.
0 —
5.0
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
150
6.3
154
—16
0 6.
6 —
7.1
160
—17
5 6.
6 —
7.1
169
—19
6 7.
6 —
11.5
East
ern
Euro
pe13
0
4.
2
13
8 —
150
4.4
—4.
8 16
1 —
195
4.4
—4.
8 18
7 —
250
6.2
—10
.1
Afric
a26
0.6
25
—28
0.
6 —
0.6
26
—31
0.
6 —
0.6
26
—35
0.
7 —
1.1
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
28
0.
7
30
—
33
0.7
—0.
9 33
—
42
0.7
—0.
9 38
—
53
1.0
—1.
7
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic54
1.6
58
—65
1.
8 —
1.9
65
—84
1.
8 —
1.9
75
—10
9 2.
4 —
3.3
Far E
ast
56
2.
2
60
—
68
2.3
—2.
8 69
—
91
2.3
—2.
8 81
—
123
3.1
—5.
9
Wor
ld A
vera
ge71
2.6
72
—78
2.
6 —
2.9
76
—92
2.
6 —
2.9
81
—11
1 3.
0 —
4.8
Cou
ntry
Gro
upEn
ergy
C
onsu
mpt
ion
per
Cap
ita (G
J/ca
p.)
2020
Ener
gy
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(GJ/
cap.
)
Elec
trici
ty
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(MW
.h/c
ap)
2030
Ener
gy
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(GJ/
cap.
)
Elec
trici
ty
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(MW
.h/c
ap)
2004
2010
Elec
trici
ty
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(MW
.h/c
ap)
Ener
gy
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(GJ/
cap.
)
Elec
trici
ty
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r C
apita
(MW
.h/c
ap)
43
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 8. PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004
2010
2020
2030
GJ
per c
apita
44
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2004
2010
2020
2030
High EstimateLow Estimate
45
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 9. PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004
2010
2020
2030
MW
·hpe
r cap
ita
46
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2004
2010
2020
2030
High EstimateLow Estimate
47
BLANK
TABL
E 12
. AVE
RAG
E AN
NUAL
GRO
WTH
RAT
ES D
URIN
G T
HE P
ERIO
D 19
94—
2004
(%)
Coun
try G
roup
Popu
latio
nTo
tal E
nerg
y Co
nsum
ptio
nTo
tal E
lect
ricity
Co
nsum
ptio
nNu
clea
r Ene
rgy
Cons
umpt
ion
Nucl
ear C
apac
ity
Nor
th A
mer
ica
1.1
1.4
1.8
1.7
-0.5
Lat
in A
mer
ica
1.5
1.7
3.8
9.4
3.7
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
0.5
1.4
2.1
1.5
0.3
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
3.0
1.2
Afri
ca2.
3
3.
4
3.
9
4.
0
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1.9
4.0
4.9
13.4
6.0
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic1.
4
3.
1
4.
9
Far
Eas
t0.
9
3.
3
5.
8
3.
0
2.
8
Wor
ld A
vera
ge1.
3
2.
0
3.
0
2.
1
0.
7
49
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES
-6
0
6
12
Annu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
Population
Total Energy Consumption
Total Electricity Consumption
Nuclear Energy Consumption
DURING THE PERIOD 1994—2004
50
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
51
BLANK
TABL
E 13
. EST
IMAT
ES O
F AV
ERAG
E AN
NUAL
GRO
WTH
RAT
ES D
URIN
G T
HE P
ERIO
D 20
04—
2030
(%)
Coun
try G
roup
Popu
latio
n
Nor
th A
mer
ica
0.8
0.
7 —
1.5
1.
1 —
2.0
0.
2 —
1.1
0.
1 —
1.0
Lat
in A
mer
ica
1.0
2.
4 —
4.1
2.
7 —
4.7
1.
6 —
5.4
1.
3 —
5.1
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
0.2
0.
6 —
1.2
0.
9 —
2.5
-1
.4
—0.
9
-1.7
—
0.6
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
-0.3
1.
2 —
2.3
1.
3 —
3.2
1.
6 —
3.1
1.
1 —
2.6
Afri
ca1.
8
1.9
—3.
1
2.4
—4.
6
0.8
—6.
7
0.6
—6.
5
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1.3
2.
5 —
3.9
2.
6 —
4.6
7.
6 —
11.4
7.
1 —
10.8
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic0.
9
2.1
—3.
6
2.5
—3.
7
Far
Eas
t0.
4
1.9
—3.
5
1.8
—4.
3
2.5
—3.
9
2.3
—3.
6
Wor
ld A
vera
ge0.
9
1.5
—2.
7
1.6
—3.
4
0.7
—2.
3
0.5
—2.
2
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Requ
irem
ent
Tota
l Ele
ctric
ity
Cons
umpt
ion
Nucl
ear E
nerg
y Pr
oduc
tion
Nucl
ear C
apac
ity
53