Key issues in session 1
• Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states
• Differences between old and new members• Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12
Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states
• Away from state socialism
• Towards neo-liberal, or not
• Cyclical swings
• Towards the ESM?
….. We need to look at “models”
What is social policy?… all models do this:
functions
• Production – human capital investment
• Reproduction – health and education
• Solidarity/legitimacy – pensions & poverty
… with a mix of these:Inputs• Direct Supply
• Finance
• Regulation
Outputs• Meeting needs - equity
• economic efficiency
• political stability
What is European social policy?
• From the “outside” • ESM• (Neo) Liberal• Productivist• Clientalist
• From the “inside” – • national welfare regimes
» Continental - equity
» Nordic – equity & efficiency
» Anglo - efficiency
» Mediterranean - neither
» Transition from state socialism – from equity to efficiency
ESM
• Social democratic - 1980s
• Neo-liberal - 2004
• Flexicurity – (back to) the future?
• Marshall’s hyphenated society: democratic-welfare-capitalism – 1950s
European social policy preferences
• A vague ensemble of different institutions, policies and values
(Dauderstadt, 2002)• Finance>Economics>Employment>Social protection(Daly, JCMS, 2006)• Equality• Non-discrimination• Solidarity• Redistribution(European Parliament, 2006)
How does social policy change?
• ESM’s triple transformation– Reaction to deindustrialisation, ageing and gender– European integration– European enlargement
• Constitutional asymmetry– European economic rules constrain national states– National states impede European SP, politically,
economically and culturally– New member states
Three ‘worlds of compliance’
• World of law observance (DK, SE, FI)– compliance even if difficult
• World of domestic politics (AT, BE, DE, NL, ES, UK)– compliance if no other difficulties
• World of neglect (IE, IT, FR, EL, LU, PT)– non-compliance typical
• Poland between 1&2 – no race to the bottom– Leiber, S (2007) JESP
EU/enlargement and social policy change – some models
(1) Elites and civil society – enlargement itself
elite civil/mass society
EU + +
Poland + +
EU - -
Turkey +/- -
(2) Cognitive Europeanisation (Spain)
• EU - a model
• means for political action
• establish a vision of preferred future
• grasp the means of realising the vision
• procedural and substantive change
(3) Policy transfers (most EU members)
• Adopted where they fit
• OECD advice routinely rejected
• values for or against
• networks of contacts
• definitions of the problem to solved
• Positive, instrumental or coercive?
(4) Catching up – can NMEs do the same?
• Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain
• per capita income
• social protection spending
• eurobarometer life satisfaction
(5) A “regulatory union”?
• Cost
• Prior systems
• Implementation (no worse than old members)
(6) Resource redistribution – unrealistic now
• Cost
• Population size
(7) Cultural context
• Gender
• Family
• Religion
• Military
• Political roots
Differences between old and new members?
• Tax – is there a race to bottom?– no evidence for this
• Wages – level and dispersion– NME’s growing and dispersing
• Government spending – level and trends– Slow convergence in different cycles
Figure 1 Real GDP growth(figures are generated from the micro-data available through TransMONEE 2001, Florence: UNICEF. Each figure includes the 8 CEE accession countries, plus Russia for comparison)
Figure 2 General Government Expenditure/GDP Ratio
Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12
• Inequality - growing, and worse in NMS• Social spending
– Health – continued variation– Pensions - this is complex– Education – continued variation
• Crime – not as bad as we think• Women – NMS better than many OMS• Minorities – highly varied across the EU• Migration – already slowing down• Time to convergence? 15-20 years or never?
– general convergence, but very, very slow
Race to bottom?
• low wage competition
• low social standards
• higher unemployment
Race to the top?
• Skilled workforce with high wages
• Good social protection
• Low unemployment