ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEANENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN
Paul Arthur BerkmanPaul Arthur BerkmanArctic Ocean Geopolitics ProgrammeArctic Ocean Geopolitics Programme
Scott Polar Research Institute, University of CambridgeScott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge
These risks are characterized in terms of political, economic and cultural instabilities that are herein defined as events or operations requiring governments to allocate resources in an unplanned manner or at the expense of previously prioritized activities. These resources could be financial, diplomatic or intellectual capital as well as tangible assets that are relevant to the security and welfare of the governments and the human populations that they represent.
Environmental security is defined herein as an integrated approach for assessing and responding to the risks as well as the opportunities generated by an environmental state-change.
Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security
RUSSIARUSSIA
DENMARKDENMARK
CANADACANADA
USAUSA
NORWAYNORWAY
ICELANDICELAND
Arctic Arctic CircleCircle66.566.5ooNN
The Arctic Ocean SystemThe Arctic Ocean System
SWEDENSWEDENFINLANDFINLAND
INDIGENOUS INDIGENOUS PEOPLESPEOPLES
North AtlanticNorth Atlantic
North PacificNorth Pacific
Environmental State-ChangeEnvironmental State-Change
Permanent Sea-Ice Cap Seasonally Ice-Free Sea
RELATIVE RATES OF RELATIVE RATES OF SEA-ICE CHANGESEA-ICE CHANGE
Thickness > ExtentThickness > Extent
International, Interdisciplinary and Inclusive
OIL AND GAS ESTIMATESOIL AND GAS ESTIMATES
1974 – Unites States Geological Survey1974 – Unites States Geological Survey“…45 billion barrels of oil and 115 trillion cubic feet of natural gas” in the Antarctic
Geological Survey Circular 705 (USGS, Reston)
2009 - United States Geological Survey2009 - United States Geological Survey“…the Arctic may contain about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil… about 618 BBO [billion barrels of oil] … with a high probability (>95%chance) that more than 770 TCF [trillion cubic feet] of gas occurs north of the Arctic Circle.”
Science 324:1175-1179
Political, Economic and Cultural InstabilitiesPolitical, Economic and Cultural Instabilities
“…important rights and obligations…”
Nation State International SpaceNation State International Space
United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaUnited Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaSigned: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982Signed: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982
Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ NationsRatification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations
Nation State International SpaceNation State International Space
United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaUnited Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaSigned: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982Signed: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982
Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ NationsRatification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations
Water ColumnWater Column
Common InterestsCommon Interests
ARCTIC OCEANARCTIC OCEAN
BALANCEBALANCE
Berkman and Young 2009. Science 324:339-340.
Promoting Cooperation and Preventing ConflictPromoting Cooperation and Preventing Conflict
Sea Floor Sea Floor
National InterestsNational Interests
Surface-Vessel / Sea-Ice Relationships
0
50
100
150
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Nu
mb
er o
f V
esse
ls
6 [60°W-0°]
5 [120°-60°W]
4 [180°-120°W]
3 [120°E-180°]
2 [60°-120°E]
1 [0°-60°E]
234
56 1
Arctic Marine Shipping
Assessment
•Comparable data over time and space to interpret trends
•Acquired and distributed over time-spaces scales for operational decisions
Arctic Ocean Remote-Sensing Experiment
CONSTELLATION PERIOD SENSORS
CONFIGURATIONEuropean, Russian,
United States, China, Canadian, Japan, Other
MarchSeptember
Surface- Vessel Reflection, Automatic Identification
System, Sea- Ice Parameters, Ocean-
Atmosphere Coupling, Other
ASSSESSMENTInternational Networking, Costs, Communications Seasonality Functionality, Processing
CHALLENGEReal-Time, Synoptic, Full-Basin Coverage for Operational and
Scientific Interpretations