ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN SECURITY: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Nay Htun, PhD, FIC.*Professor of Environmental Sustainability,
Stony Brook Southampton,State University of New York
Extramural Lecture, AIT27 May 2008.
*Fellow and Visiting Professor Imperial College London;Visiting Professor and Sr. Advisor Lund University, Sweden; (Former UN Asst. Sec-General UNEP, UNDP)
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
HUMAN SECURITY
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY***THE CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS***
• ATMOSPHERE : composition, temperature, physical state
• HYDROSPHERE: composition, precipitation, quantity constant, accessibility, rivers, lakes, oceans, coastal zones, hydro-cycle
• GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE: weathering of geosphere to form soils, provides terrestrial plants with a firm substrate and vital nutrients and minerals needed for plant growth.
• LINKGAGES AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SPHERES WHICH NURTURE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS.
2007 IPCC REPORT
2007 IPCC REPORT
2007 IPCC REPORT
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY UNDER INCREASING PRESSURES
• ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES DISCHARGING AND EMITTING INCREASING QUANTITIES OF WASTES, POLLUTANTS EG. GHGs, OZONE LAYER DEPLETING SUBSTANCES, PERSISTENT ORGANIC, (POPs), HEAVY METALS
• “NATURAL DISASTERS” exacerbated by anthropogenic activities. Hydro-meteorological, geological and biological disasters increased from 71(1900-1909) to 2711 (1990-1999) 396 in 2006*
• INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES, MORE PRESSURE ON ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC AND HUMAN SYSTEMS
• CONSEQUENCES FOR HUMAN HEALTH AND WELL BEING
* UN International Decade for Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)
EMERGING CONCERNS WITH ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATE CHANGES
• PERMAFROST AND GREENLAND MELTING• GLACIERS MELTING AND LAKES BURSTING• ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD HOVERING
OVER CONTINENTS • GLOBAL WARMING• SEA LEVEL RISING• HUMIDITY INCREASING• MORE FAVOURABLE FOR INSECT, BACTERIA,
VIRUS, MOLD, FUNGUS• BALLAST WATER DISCHARGE• ALIEN INVASIVE SPECIES INCREASING
SOME LINKED & CONVERGING IMPLICATIONS
• FOOD SECURITY• WATER STRESS• WATER QUALITY• INFECTIOUS DISEASES • ALLERGY• RESPIRATORY ILLNESS• NEW DISEASES• ZOONOSES• DISASTERS
DISEASES & FOOD SECURITY
SOME EXAMPLES:• COLONY COLLAPSE DISORDER honey
bees affecting US$ 14 billion per year of US agriculture, attributed to pesticides, mites, fungus, virus and environmental changes.
• PACIFIC SALMON heavy losses and extinction in Western Canada and US, caused by sea lice breeding on farmed salmon.
• FROG POPULATIONS severely affected , extinct, due to increase of chytrid disease caused by fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis
DESTRUCTIONS AND DISASTERS• INFRASTRUCTURES• HUMAN SETTLEMENTS• ECOSYSTEMS * Atmosphere, land, forests, rivers,
lakes, coastal zones, biodiversity• ECONOMIC SYSTEMS• SOCIAL AND CULTURAL
PATRIMONY
Destructions
Diseases
Environmental Refugees
Disasters Climate Change
INFECTIOUS DISEASES• GROUP OF EIGHT SUMMIT, ST. PETERSBURG ’06“ A VIGOROUS RESPONSE TO THE THREAT OF
INFECTIOUS DISEASES, THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATHS WORLD WIDE, IS ESSENTIAL TO GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND TO THE WELL-BEING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION. MAJOR DISEASES SUCH AS HIV / AIDS, TUBERCLOSIS, MALARIA AND MEASELS CONTINUE TO EXACT A HEAVY TOLL ON ECONOMIES AND SOCIETIES AROUND THE WORLD, PARTICULARLY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, IMPEDING ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS”
“– CLEAN WATER, SANITATION, EMERGENCE OF HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA WITH THE ACCOMPANYING POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN PANDEMIC, DEMANDS OUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION”
WHO 2006 REPORTS• “24% of global disease burdens and
23% of all deaths can be attributed to environmental factors. Of the 102 major diseases --- environmental risk factors contributed to disease burdens in 85 categories”
• “Children 0 – 14 yrs. of age, the proportion of deaths attributed to the environment was as high as 36%
EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY
EUROPE’S ENVIRONMENT --- THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT” OCT 2007
“Despite some success with air pollution, current levels– mainly nitrogen oxide, fine particles and ground level ozone – are estimated to shorten average life expectancy in Western and Central European countries by almost one year and threaten the health development of children. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, the situation is assumed to be similarly bleak”
(53 Countries, total population 870 million)
IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT 2007
• More endemic morbidity and mortality due to increase in vector borne diseases , primarily from floods and droughts.
• Increase cholera incidence with increasing water temperatures
• Increased risks of infectious, respiratory and skin diseases
• Migration and disasters related health effects
MALARIA
Yearly one million deaths and 500 million become severely ill
Warming effects and extreme weather events would precipitate large outbreaks
Increase range of mosquitoes which spread malaria
WEST NILE
•Affects humans, horses and over 130 species of birds
•Warm weather and droughts play role in amplifying
DENGUE
•Current outbreak in Asia Pacific attributed to climate change and global warming
ASTHMA• In US prevalence has
quadrupled since 1980•New drivers include
increased levels of CO2, which increases plant pollens, soil fungi, fine particles, micro-organisms
INCREASING AWARENESS & CONCERNS WITH CONVERGENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
AND HUMAN SECURITYSOME RECENT EXAMPLES:• April 2007 New York Times Editorial “Warming and Global
Security”• April 2007 CNA Corporation, a US national security think
tank released report by 11 retired Admirals and Generals who argued that climate change is a “threat multiplier”
• January 2007 UN Security Council first ever debate on climate change. UK’s former Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said “What makes war start? Fights over water, changing patterns of rainfall” and warned that global warming not limited to adverse environmental effects, and the global population would be wise to consider “consequences people have not been thinking about”
RESPONSE OPTIONS ?
NEW PARADIGM:Normative meansEconomic InstrumentsTechnologiesEducation, training, information InstitutionsGovernance
TOWARDS
TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES IMPERATIVE
PARADIGM CHANGE• CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, e.g. *Energy, water, carbon & material
footprint reduction, low carbon economy.
• PRODUCTION SYSTEMS e.g. * Zero emissions * Biomimetics * Nano materials and applications
PARADIGM CHANGE• ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENTS: Subsidies, taxes, loans, financing mechanisms, cap and trade, CDM, etc
• NORMATIVE MEANS• INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEMS Governance Administration Education
PARADIGM CHANGE---Human Behavior---
• THINK & ACT “OUTSIDE-BOX”
• CARING, SHARING, RESPECT, HARMONY, PEACE:
Nature Neighbors Ourselves
GREENING REVOLUTIONA FUTURE THAT IS CLEAN SAFE SECURE SUSTAINED
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY HUMAN SECURITY
FREEDOM FROM WANTFREEDOM FROM FEARFREEDOM TO CHOOSE