Esther Rojas-‐Soto, Samuel Evans, Dean Speers, and Ma8hew D. Po8s
INTRODUCTION v The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates the consumpBon of 36 billion gallons of renewable transportaBon fuel by 2022. 16 billion gallons must be derived from cellulosic biomass. MeeBng this standard will require a significant shiO in current land-‐use pa8erns from exisBng agricultural producBon to dedicated energy crops. It is important to study these shiOs and how they may affect future economic and ecosystem service systems. v The purpose of this study is to visualize and idenBfy the most viable locaBons within the United States to plant and grow these biofuels given regulatory and economic restraints. v RFS regulaBons have been established to restrict cellulosic biomass producBon to exisBng agricultural lands. These lands fall into four broad land-‐use classificaBons:
v Lands in CRP: “ConservaBon Reserve Program”. A voluntary program for landowners where they receive annul payments to “establish long-‐term, resource-‐conserving covers on eligible farmland”.
v Fallow cropland: Available farmland that is unculBvated or not in use.
v AcBve Cropland: Any farmland in use to grow any and all types of crops.
v Pastureland: Grasslands excluding those occupied by naBve grasses.
v The RFS prohibits the use of naBve grasslands and forest for cellulosic biomass producBon.
v In addiBon to regulatory constraints, the economic feasibility of cellulosic biomass producBon should also be considered. We explore regional variability in agricultural land “rental rates,” which is an important measure of economic feasibility. Rental rates reflect the opportunity cost of allocaBng land to cellulosic biomass producBon.
METHODS
v The data pertaining to the areas where biofuels may be grown came from USDA Farm Service Agency 2010 land-‐use records.
v The specific informaBon of interest included in this data was the amount of planted acres of each crop at a county level.
v We began by separaBng this data by types of crop; fi^ng each into one of our four categories: CRP, FALLOW, CROP, or PASTURELAND using the R staBsBcal compuBng language.
v Next, we used ARC GIS, a program for mapping and spaBal analysis, to construct a visual representaBon of the counBes with potenBal of bioenergy feedstock producBon.
v Data on regional land rental rates for pasture and non-‐irrigated cropland was obtained from the USDA. NaBonal Agricultural StaBsBcs Service.
v A visualizaBon was constructed that shows regions in the U.S. where cellulosic biomass producBon may be economically viable.
LAND AVAILIBILITY UNDER THE RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD REGULATIONS
CONCLUSIONS
v The results of this study make it easier to visualize where biofuels could potenBally be grown given exisBng land-‐uses, and the average land rent values for cropland and pastureland.
v We were able to determine and visualize the areas in the United States that are currently in use (in 2010) by the four categories of land that the RFS sBpulates.
v The land rent data for CRP land and fallow land were not available given the nature of these landscapes. While land rental rates provide a general measure of economic viability, addiBonal measures should also be used for these lands. A richer economic analysis would allow for a more accurate evaluaBon of which areas would be the most economical for biofuel producBon.
v This analysis provides a foundaBon upon which to further study the ecological and economic costs and benefits of cellulosic bioenergy producBon.
RELATED L ITERATURE United States of America. Environmental ProtecBon Agency. Regula'on of Fuels and Fuel Addi'ves: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program; Final Rule. By Environmental ProtecBon Agency. N.p., 26 Mar. 2010. Young, Heather, and Chris Sommerville. "Growing Be8er Biofuel Crops." Growing Be?er Biofuel Crops. The ScienBst, 01 July 2012. Web. 09 July 2012. Perlack, R. D., Stokes, B.J. (2011). U.S. Billion-‐Ton Update: Biomass Supply for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry. Renewable Energy (p. 227). Oak Ridge, TN. Khanna, M., Chen, X., Huang, H., & Onal, H. (2011). Supply of Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks and Regional ProducBon Pa8ern. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2), 473-‐480.
LAND RENTAL RATES BY REGION
Cropland Rents$/Acre
0 - 30
30 - 60
60 - 90
90 - 120
120 - 150
150 - 180
180 - 230
Pastureland Rents$/Acre
0 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25 - 30
30 - 50
50 - 110
Pastureland land-‐rents in $/acre. The darker colors represent higher average land rents and in turn, less of a economic opRon for the growth of biofuels.
Non-‐Irrigated cropland land-‐rents in $/acre. The darker colors represent higher average land rents and in turn, less of a economic opRon for the growth of biofuels.
Each map shows the number of hectares available for each land use category. Values are in hectares per 1,000 hectares of total land in each county. Darker counRes imply a larger concentraRon of available land.
Cropland
(ha/1000ha)
Cropland is widely available, but requires displacing exisRng agricultural commodiRes. While land quality is generally high, growing low-‐value dedicated energy crops involves a high opportunity cost.
Pastureland
(ha/1000ha)
Large tracts of pastureland are available for cellulosic biomass producRon throughout the Southern Plains and Southeast. AllocaRng pastureland for biomass producRon is generally aYracRve due to the low opportunity cost.
CRP
(ha/1000ha)
Land currently enrolled in the ConservaRon Reserve Program is highly concentrated throughout the Great Plains and Southeast. While CRP represents a plausible stock of land for biomass producRon, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of bioenergy feedstock producRon on important ecosystem services.
Fallow Land
(ha/1000ha)
Fallow/idled cropland is an addiRonal plausible stock of land, concentrated primarily in the Central and Northern Plains. Land rental rates are generally lower than acRve cropland, but fallow/idled land is usually less producRve.
