ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY
Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions
Session I : Differential Fertility I (LSD: Room S50 )September 29, 2006
Sutay Yavuz Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock/Germany
(PhD Candidate) [email protected]
ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN FERTILITY TRANSITION IN TURKEY
1. Introduction: Fertility Transition
2. Brief information on Ethnic Composition
3. Differential Fertility Behavior of Ethnic Groups: Period Fertility Measures and Childbearing
Behavior
4.The threshold in Fertility Transition: Determinants of the Third Births by Ethnicity
5. Conclusion
Introduction: Fertility Transition
The natural fertility: the reproductive behavior characterized by the absence of deliberate birth control.
The modern family limitation: fertility behavior turns into a matter of the calculus choice.
Natural FertilityModern Fertility
Behavior
Fertility Transition: natural fertility behavior shifts to modern family limitation (parity-specific birth limitation )
MODERNIZATION (?)
Mortality decline
Socio-economic development
Innovation & Diffusion
Institutional change
Early StageEarly Stage:
Increasing age at marriage
Celibacy
Traditional contraceptive methods:
Withdrawal
Late StageLate Stage:
Modern contraceptive methods
Postponement and limiting of births
Fertility Transition in Turkey - I
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) 1920 - 2003, Turkey
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Total Fertility Rate 5.6 6.6 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.2
1920 - 25
1925 - 30
1930 - 35
1935 - 40
1940 - 45
1945 - 50
1950 - 55
1955 - 60
1960 - 65
1965 - 70
1970 - 75
1975 - 80
1980 - 85
1985 - 88
1988 - 93
1993 - 98
1998 - 03
I. II. III.
TF
R (C
hild
ren
per w
omen
)
2.1
Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year.
Replacement level fertility: 2.1 children per woman's life time. 2 children to replace the parents, with one-tenth of a child extra to make up for the mortality of children
Brief information on Ethnic Composition : Percent Distribution
Ethnic Group 19351 19652 19903 19924 19935 19986 20037
Turks 89.2 90.1 - 85.8 82.7 83.2 83.0
Kurds 9.2 9.9 12.6 12.4 13.0 14.4 14.0
Arabs 1.0 1.0 - 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9
Other* 0.6 1.1 - 0.4 2.6 0.5 1.2
1 1935 Population Census
2 Mutlu, 1995 (1965 Population Census)
3 Mutlu, 1995 (projection)
4 Özsoy, Koç and Toros 1992 (projection) 5 (Koç et al.1999) TDHS-1993 (ever-married women)
6 (Koç et al.2000) TDHS-1998 (never- married and ever-married women)
7 (own estimation) TDHS-1993 (ever-married women)
* Other ethnic groups: Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jew etc.
Percentage Distribution of Ethnic Groups in Turkey
Absolute Numbers (in thousand)
1965 1993 1998 2003Percent per annum population increase 1965-2003
Turks 27 624 49 060 54 081 58 292 1.97
Kurds 3 108 7 712 9 360 9 832 3.03
Arabs 308 1 008 1 235 1 334 3.81
Other1 345 1 542 325 843 2.35
Turkey* 31 391 59 323 65 001 70 231 2.12
http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do1 Other ethnic groups: Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jew etc.
Inter-marriage among ethnic groups in Turkey
Mother Tongue of Wife
Mother Tongue of Husband
Turkish Kurdish Other1 (N)
Turkish 97.5 1.9 0.6 6123
Kurdish 4.9 94.1 1.0 1270
Other1 22.9 5.1 72.0 275Source: TDHS-2003 (own estimation)
1 Other ethnic groups: Arabs, Greeks, Circassians, Georgians, Armenians, Jews etc.
Differential Fertility Behavior of Ethnic Groups: Age Specific Fertility Rates
Age Specific Fertility Rate (2000-2003) By Mother Tongue (Turkey TFR is 2.2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Age
AS
FR (
in 1
000
)
Turkish
Kurdish
: 1.89
: 4 02
TFR
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): The number of live births to women in a specified age group and period per 1,000 women in the same age group.
Fertility Differentials : Welfare Status and Ethnicity
TFR by Household Welfare Status, 2000-03, 2003 TDHS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
POOREST POORER MIDDLE RICHER RICHEST
Welfare Index
To
tal F
erti
lity
Rat
e
KURDISH
TURKEY
TURKISH
: 4.02: 2.22: 1.89
TFR
2.1
Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman
Fertility Differentials: Education Level and Ethnicity
TFR by Education Level, 2000-03, 2003 TDHS
0
1
2
3
4
5
No educ./Prim. incomp First level primary Second level primary High school and higher
Education
Tota
l Fer
tilit
y R
ate
KURDISH
TURKEY
TURKISH
: 4.02: 2.22: 1.89
TFR
2.1
Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman
General Pattern of Childbearing Patterns by Ethnicity
TurkishKurdish
(don't know T.)Kurdish
(knows T.) Arab Other
M*- 1 92.5 90.3 91.9 89.7 89.4
1 – 2 72.9 95.3 92.4 89.7 78.1
2 – 3 45.3 96.0 79.3 79.5 42.5
3 – 4 42.5 95.7 76.5 75.9 29.4
4 – 5 39.5 91.2 75.5 70.2 25.3
5 – 6 42.9 89.7 72.4 72.8 -
6 – 7 40.7 83.7 72.7 76.3 -
7 – 8 42.6 84.7 60.4 76.9 -
8 – 9 54.6 79.0 62.3 56.7 -
9 – 10 44.8 85.8 55.7 70.0 -
M* refers to marriage (parity 0). Source: TDHS-2003 data file (own estimation)
Cumulative proportion of ever-married women who progress to next parity within five years of the previous birth, by
the mother tongue of women.
Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth
The progression from second to third birth is as a critical component of the fertility transition. The third births were seen as a marker of a strong two-child family norm in modern societies
As two-child family norm is becoming more and more widespread, the third child mothers are forming a special group with different motivations and fertility ideals.
We use event-history approach for examining the determinants of the third births; (piecewise constant) proportional-hazard (or intensity-regression) models .
Data is originated from 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey
How progression risks (intensities) are dependent on different
combinations of characteristics of the women?
Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth
A relative risk of 1 for the level of a covariate indicates that the estimated third birth risk is the same as that of the reference group of the same covariate.
A relative risk estimated to be greater (smaller) than 1 indicates a higher (lower) third birth risk than for the reference category.
A woman’s third birth risk is defined as the probability that she will experience a third birth the next month, given her individual characteristics and given that she has not had such a birth by the beginning of the month.
Threshold in Fertility Transition: Third Birth
The progression to a third birth, as with any other type of life-course transition, does not occur at random or in isolation, but in relation to certain to structures in society.
Thus we cover certain areas of life that assumed to be related fertility behavior of women:
1. Childhood Socialization2. Socio-economic Characteristics3. First Marriage Specific Cultural Characteristics4. Past Fertility Experience5. Husband Charactersitics6. Context Variables
Transition to Third Birth: Determinants
Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth
Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker
Woman's Mother was literate
No 1.32*** 0.99
Yes 1 1
Woman's Mother: Total Children Ever Born
≤ 7 1 1
7+ 1.32* 1.19
Woman's Father was literate
No 1.15* 1.03
Yes 1 1
Childhood Place of Residence
Urban 1 1
Rural 1.20*** 1.08
CHILDHOOD SOCIALIZATION
*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1
Transition to Third Birth: Determinants
Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1
Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker
Education
No Education/Primary Incomplete 1.43*** 1.12
Primary and higher 1 1
Literacy
Not at all 1.43*** 1.24**
Reads 1 1
Working Status before Marriage1
Not worked 1.41** 1.14
Worked 1 1
1 For Turkish Speaker women the levels are: Not worked/Worked without social security
Worked with social security
Transition to Third Birth: Determinants
Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth
FIRST MARRIAGE SPECIFIC CULTURAL CHARACTERISTICS
*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1
Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker
Family Type at Marriage
Neo-local 1 1
Patri-local 1.29*** 1.00
Marriage Arrangement
By Couple 1 1
By Family 1.16** 1.04
Bride's Money Paid
No 1 1
Yes 1.23** 1.46***
Relationship to Husband
Not Related 1 1
First degree relative 1.15* 1.06
Other relative 1.12 0.58***
Transition to Third Birth: Determinants
Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth
PAST FERTILITY EXPERIENCE
*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1
Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker
Age at Second Birth
<=22 2.28*** 1.68***
23-25 2.15*** 1.80***
26-29 1.59*** 1.35
30+ 1 1
Previous birth interval
< 24 Months 1.36*** 1.08
>=24 Months 1 1
Survival Status of the First Child
Alive before 3rd conception 1 1
Death before 3rd conception 2.63*** 1.22
Sex of previous children
MM 1.17** 1.09
FF 1.71*** 1.68***
MIX 1 1
Transition to Third Birth: Determinants
Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth
HUSBAND CHARACTERISTICS
*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1
Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker
Husband Education
No Education /Primary Incomplete 1.36* 1.11
Primary and higher 1 1
Transition to Third Birth: Determinants
Event history model - relative risks of the transition to third birth
CONTEXT VARIABLES
*** p ≤ 0.01 0.01 < ** p ≤ 0.05 0.05 < *p ≤0.1
Turkish Speaker Kurdish Speaker
Mother Tongue
Kurdish_ Don't Know Turkish 1.63***
Kurdish_ Know Turkish 1
Period (Time-Varying Cov.)
1983-87 1 1
1988-92 0.90** 0.93
1993-97 0.81* 1.07
1998-03 0.77* 0.75**
Interaction: Period and Mother Tongue
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1983-87 1988-92 1993-97 1998-03
Period
Re
lati
ve
ris
k o
f th
ird
bir
th
TurkishKurdish_Don't Know TurkishKurdish_ Know Turkish
1.0
Conclusion
The fertility behavior turns out to be parity specific limitation behavior for Turkish speaker women after parity one and more significantly, after the
parity two. The educated Turkish women may be now ‘pioneer’ of the lowest-low fertility behavior.
In contrast, the Kurdish speaker women who do not speak Turkish, could not read and who did not work, married traditionally compose ‘laggard’ group
in fertility transition process of Turkey.
The results can be seen as supportive of the argument that the segments of the population that have been more integrated into social, economic and political modernization and urbanization trends are changing their fertility
behavior more rapidly.
The socio-economic determinants of important however effect is modified by mother tongue (ethnicity) and cultural characteristics (dimensions of the patriarchy)
The fertility dynamics of Kurdish parents is an important factor in determining
when and how the demographic transition in Turkey will be completed
Sutay Yavuz (PhD Candidate) [email protected]
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock
www.demogr.mpg.de
Thank you very much