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0/70/0/10
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50/80/0/0
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CMYK
100/5/5/10
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EU Perspectives on
PV Markets & Industry
Winfried Hoffmann (EPIA president)
3rd PV Rollout Conference Atlanta, February 26th, 2013
Applied Solar Expertise
Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA Member of the Supervisory Board of SMA Solar Technology AG Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Solar Fabrik AG Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and NEXT Member of Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz Email: [email protected]
SMA – Energy that changes
Markets Market segments SMA Solar Technology AG
> Founded in 1981
> Sales in 2011: EUR 1,7 billion
> More than 5,500 employees worldwide
> Represented in 21 countries on 5 continents
> More than 20 GW total installed SMA capacity
Off-Grid Solutions
Residential <30 kW
Sunny Boy
Industrial >1 MW
Sunny Central
SMA, as market and technology leader for solar inverters and with comprehensive know-
how, will play a substantial role in energy transition
Annual production capacity in total > 11,5 GW
Worldwide presence in all relevant PV markets
Sunny Island Sunny Backup
Fuel Saver
Commercial <500 kW
Sunny Tripower
Energy Management
Sunny Home Manager
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4
Some words about EPIA
1. The European Photovoltaic Industry Association,
founded in 1985, today 150 members, 2/3 from Europe,
1/3 from Rest of the World, representing the whole
value chain
2. 20 EPIA team members, from more than 10 countries,
engaged in Policy, Communication & Marketing,
3 Working Groups
3. Lobbying for the interests of the PV industry
especially in Brussels, focused on the European
markets. THE voice of PV in Europe!!!
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5 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
PV 2011: ~70 GW full power (~ 80,000,000 MWh) Corresponding to 53 full size 1,300MW nuclear reactors … and energy wise to the annual output of 9 such reactors
Average cumulative growth 44%
Average annual growth 57%
2012
>100 GW
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6 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
Annual Market Development in Europe
21.7 GW
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0/152/203
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7 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
Photovoltaic Today in Europe PV Markets with Capacity Additions > 1GW
7,4
2,3 1,5
Germany Italy CzechRepublic
PV Markets with Capacity Additions > 1GW
9,3
7,5
2,2 1,9 1,7 1,3
Capacity Additions in Europe (GW)
28,3
13,4 9,9
5,7
Gas PV Wind Other
Capacity Additions in Europe (GW)
21,1
10,3 9,7 4,6
PV Wind Gas Other
Sources: EWEA, EPIA, EGP estimate
PV Share: 46%
RES Share: 73%
PV Share: 23%
RES Share: 46%
2010 2010
2011 2011
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5/95/100/0
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227/50/38
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0/70/0/10
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50/80/0/0
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148/83/161
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100/5/5/10
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0/152/203
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8 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
Source: FhG-ISE
PV Market Segments in Germany
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9 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
Evolution of annual global PV market
• Decreasing importance of the European market in
relative terms, increasing importance of the
Chinese, US, Jp and other Sunbelt markets
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100/5/5/10
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0/0/0/60
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10 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
Evolution of annual global PV market
• Decreasing importance of the European market in
relative terms, increasing importance of the
Chinese, US, Jp and other Sunbelt markets
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100/5/5/10
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0/152/203
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11 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
Evolution of annual global PV market
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12 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
2016 – Policy Driven Scenario – 24.85 MW
Top 10 production companies 2000
13
Company % share MW shipped Company % share MW shipped
Kyocera (J) 15 42 Photowatt (F) 5 13
BP Solar (US) 15 42 Sanyo (J) 4 11
Sharp (J) 15 42 Isofoton (Spain) 3 8
Siemens Solar (Ger/US) 11 31 Mitsubishi (J) 2 6
Astro Power (US) 6 17 other 19 55
ASE (Ger/US) 5 13 total 100 280
4 Jp; 2 US; 2EU/US; 2 EU
Top 10 production companies 2010
14
Company % share MW shipped
Company % share MW shipped
Suntech (China)
7.9 1572 Q-Cells (Germany)
4.5 907
JA Solar (China)
7.3 1464 Gintech (Taiwan)
4.2 827
First Solar (US)
7.1 1411 Sharp (Japan)
3.9 774
Yingli Solar (China)
5.3 1062 Canadian Solar (Canada/China)
2.9 588
Trina Solar (China)
5.3 1057 Others ~47 ~9,400
Motech Solar
(Taiwan)
4.6 924 Total 100 ~20,000
5 China; 2 Taiwan; 1 Jp; 1 US; 1 EU
15
Market allocation versus regional
production of PV modules
Source: EPIA, Navigant Consulting (Paula Mints)
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.4 6.1 7.2 17.2 [GW]
%
%
%
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16 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
New EPIA scenarios for EU until 2020 and 2030
Baseline scenario:
based on pessimistic
or « moderate »
market evolution
Accelerated scenario:
Based on « policy-
driven » market
evolution
Paradigm shift
scenario: ambitious
policy shift could lead
to 25%
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17 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
Unlocking New PV Markets
EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt Study – 2010 - 2011
2016 Policy-driven
Turkey 0,75 GW
Mexico 1 GW
Brazil 1,5 GW
Chile 1 GW
Thailand 1 GW
Malaysia 0,5 GW
Israel 1 GW
S-A 2 GW
India 5 GW
China 10 GW
MENA 1 GW
Australia 2,5 GW
PV attractiveness is key…
But the country investment attractiveness as well !
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18 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop
Unlocking New PV Markets
EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt Study – 2010 - 2011
2016 Policy-driven
Turkey 0,75 GW
Mexico 1 GW
Brazil 1,5 GW
Chile 1 GW
Thailand 1 GW
Malaysia 0,5 GW
Israel 1 GW
S-A 2 GW
India 5 GW
China 10 GW
MENA 1 GW
Australia 2,5 GW
PV attractiveness is key…
But the country investment attractiveness as well !
…development of commercial markets like fuel
saver in existing and new built diesel gen sets,
communication and education centers in all rural
areas
Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 1999
… the story of „Grid parity“
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20 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
Competitiveness between PV Electricity Generation Cost and Electricity price
… only one „mistake“ in
1999:
• PV LCOE will decrease
quicker after 2010 due to
higher growth!
• Conventional electricity
prices will go quicker up!
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100/5/5/10
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0/152/203
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21 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
Development of Feed-in tariff for PV and electricity prices in Germany
Source: FhG-ISE, BMU
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22 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
PV system price evolution in Germany
Sopurce: FhG-ISE, BMU, BSW Solar
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100/5/5/10
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0/152/203
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30/8/100/15
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0/0/0/60
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23 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
Possible PV system price evolution (average)
24
Marimekko graph for c-Si systems
25
Photovoltaics & added value in Europe in 2010
EU content for module
& inverter ~ 55%
EU content for total
system ~ 70%
EU module manufacturing
plus export poly Si, wire,
paste, plastics, equipment
and much more …
26
Source:
Photovoltaic –
Future Price Development … with “healthy” module prices …
0,1
1,0
10,0
1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06
MW accumulated
AS
P in $
/W
Case A – TF 20%
Case A – cSi 20%
PEC Scenario Case A: Baseline
TF share 15% const
TF PEF 20%
Case B:Paradigm Shift
TF share 15% → 35%
TF PEF 25%
0,1
1,0
10,0
1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06
MW accumulated
AS
P in $
/W
Case B – TF 25%
Case B – cSi 20%
c-Si Technology
price expectation in 2020
ca. 60 – 80 $ct/W
Thin Film Technology
price expectation in 2020
ca. 30 – 70 $ct/W
as of 2011/12
27
Extrapolation from „Marimekko 2010“ to 2020
year 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0
C-Si efficiency 15% 15/20 = 0.75 20%
MM‘10
[%]
[$/W]
[$/W]
[%]
Module
60 1.68 PEC c-Si
0.70 47
Inverter 8 0.22 PEC 0.11 7
BOS
12 0.34 Eff. Factor 0.75 0.25 17
Installation
20 0.56 Eff. Factor 0.75 0.42 29
total 100 2.80 1.48 100
28
From PV module to PV system
2010
8%
12%
20%
60%
PV modules PV inverter Balance of
system Installation
7% 17%
29%
47%
2020
Source:
year
Annual installa-
tions [GW]
Modules [bn $]
Inverter [bn $]
BOS [bn $]
Installation
[bn $]
Total [bn $]
2010 22 37 5 8 12 62
2020 160 112 18 40 67 237
EPIA „SET for 2020“, own calculations
PV industry turnover with „paradigm shift scenario“
120601 29 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – Sisecam Glass Symposium
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30 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change
High Level Group (HLG) working on
Key Enabling Technologies (KET)
3 commissioners
27 HLG members from EU member states, industry
representatives, R&D organizations and EIB
… assisted by many „sherpas“
3 commissioners:
Tajani (industry & enterprise)
Kroes (digital agenda)
Geoghegan-
Quinn (research & innovation)
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31
Valley of Death – EU focus in the past …
With consequences
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32
Valley of Death
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50/80/0/0
RGB
148/83/161
CMYK
100/5/5/10
RGB
0/152/203
CMYK
30/8/100/15
RGB
165/175/41
CMYK
0/0/0/60
RGB
98/100/100
33
German Governmental Plan for the Future
Energy Mix (agreed 09/2010)
Ref: FhG-ISE, German Government data
Main
Color
Palette
Secondary
Color
Palette
CMYK
0/25/100/0
RGB
253/196/0
CMYK
5/80/100/0
RGB
224/81/21
CMYK
0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK
5/95/100/0
RGB
227/50/38
CMYK
0/70/0/10
RGB
218/104/157
CMYK
50/80/0/0
RGB
148/83/161
CMYK
100/5/5/10
RGB
0/152/203
CMYK
30/8/100/15
RGB
165/175/41
CMYK
0/0/0/60
RGB
98/100/100
34
Summary
• There is still a long way to go to reach the
ambitious targets
• Price and cost reduction by technology
development induced by increased volume (PEC)
is of minor concern and will most probably work
• Regional industrial policy will determine where
most of the added value will occur
• Big challenge from incumbent energy industry
# is the increased opposition against decentralized
energy production
# investing now in traditional power stations which
will last for 40+ years
• Politics must assist to overcome this challenge
Main
Color
Palette
Secondary
Color
Palette
CMYK
0/25/100/0
RGB
253/196/0
CMYK
5/80/100/0
RGB
224/81/21
CMYK
0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK
5/95/100/0
RGB
227/50/38
CMYK
0/70/0/10
RGB
218/104/157
CMYK
50/80/0/0
RGB
148/83/161
CMYK
100/5/5/10
RGB
0/152/203
CMYK
30/8/100/15
RGB
165/175/41
CMYK
0/0/0/60
RGB
98/100/100
Main
Color
Palette
Secondary
Color
Palette
CMYK
0/25/100/0
RGB
253/196/0
CMYK
5/80/100/0
RGB
224/81/21
CMYK
0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK
5/95/100/0
RGB
227/50/38
CMYK
0/70/0/10
RGB
218/104/157
CMYK
50/80/0/0
RGB
148/83/161
CMYK
100/5/5/10
RGB
0/152/203
CMYK
30/8/100/15
RGB
165/175/41
CMYK
0/0/0/60
RGB
98/100/100
Main
Color
Palette
Secondary
Color
Palette
CMYK
0/25/100/0
RGB
253/196/0
CMYK
5/80/100/0
RGB
224/81/21
CMYK
0/0/0/100
RGB 0/0/0
CMYK
5/95/100/0
RGB
227/50/38
CMYK
0/70/0/10
RGB
218/104/157
CMYK
50/80/0/0
RGB
148/83/161
CMYK
100/5/5/10
RGB
0/152/203
CMYK
30/8/100/15
RGB
165/175/41
CMYK
0/0/0/60
RGB
98/100/100
www.epia.org
Gaëtan Masson, Head of Business Intelligence, [email protected]